INVESTOR DIGEST HIGHLIGHT CORPORATE. Equity Research 19 October 2016

Transcription

1 INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research 19 October 2016 Economic Data Latest 2016F 7-DRRR, eop Inflation (YoY %) US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 13,032 13,348 HIGHLIGHT H M Sampoerna: Market Share Improvement at a Cost (HMSP; Rp4,130; Neutral; Rp3,750) Market Recap Oct 18 th 2016; JCI: 5, (+0.36%); USD/IDR: 13,032; Total Value: Rp9.2tn Stock Market Data (18 Oct 2016) JCI Index 5, % Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 5,420.0 Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 5, ,016.2 Market Data Summary* EBITDA growth EPS growth EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Div. Yield Earnings Yield Net Gearing ROE * Aggregate of 77 companies in MS research universe, representing 68.7% of JCI s market capitalization CORPORATE H M Sampoerna: Market Share Improvement at a Cost (HMSP; Rp4,130; Neutral; Rp3,750) HMSP s 9M16 sales volume of 78.7bn sticks (-3.8% YoY) is in line with our expectation (74% of FY16 estimate) all three segments also came as expected (SKM: 74%; SKT: 72%; SPM: 72%). Three things caught our attention: 1) SKT continues to be sluggish; 2) A Mild volume keeps on declining; 3) U Bold is likely to have kept rising. Our Neutral call and Rp3,750 price target are unchanged. Cigarette industry volume dropped 4.2% YoY in 3Q16 (-1.2% YoY in 9M16) to 72.3 bn sticks, a large swing compared to the +6.9% YoY growth in 2Q16. This is due to the 11-day shift of Lebaran. PMI claims that industry would have grown by 1.9% YoY in 3Q16 (vs. 0.3% YoY in 2Q16) should we disregard trade inventory movements. To be highlighted is that PMI s industry volume calculation is done by combining third party market share data and its own sales volume. Who suffered the most in 3Q16? HMSP s SKT dropped the most (-14.3% YoY), followed by SPM (-9.9% YoY), and SKM (-1.7% YoY). Breaking down by brand: U Mild shrunk (-12.4% YoY), followed by Dji Sam Soe (-12.2% YoY), and A Mild (-7.5% YoY). HMSP as a whole, however, was only down by 5.5% YoY, helped by strong growth in others segment (+8.5% YoY). Some gained market share A Mild (+0.2ppt QoQ) and others (+0.4ppt); some stayed Dji Sam Soe; and some lost U Mild (-0.1ppt QoQ). What do we think? HMSP successfully gained 0.5% market share QoQ the highest eat-up since Nevertheless, our concerns outlaid in our re-initiation report remains valid, that the contribution from the high-margin products is declining while the low-margin products are rising. Three data points in the 3Q16 volume supported this view: 1) contribution from the high margin SKT segment continues to shrink to 19% in 3Q16; 2) contribution from A Mild brand, the second highest margin after SKT, further declined to 41% in 3Q16; and 3) the contribution from others brands edged up to 27% in 3Q16. We suspect the rising mix of others was mostly contributed by the low-price but low-margin U Bold. Page 1 of 8

2 FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F EBITDA 14,235 14,467 16,522 17,730 19,429 Net Profit 10,181 10,363 12,021 12,891 14,114 Fully-diluted EPS (Rp) Fully-diluted EPS growth (5.9) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield ROAE Source: Company ( ), Mandiri Sekuritas ( ) Adrian Joezer ( ) Lakshmi Rowter ( ) TAX AMNESTY Page 2 of 8

3 MARKET Market Recap Oct 18 th 2016; JCI: 5, (+0.36%); USD/IDR: 13,032; Total Value: Rp9.2tn Indo stocks crept up on Tuesday, thanks to persistent rally in PTBA (after government commitment to prioritize development of MW power plant project) and now ASII (after better-than-expected September car sales). PTBA (close -1.8%) has been the leader of coal miners rally in the past two weeks as coal prices continued to trade higher. ASII (close +3%) reported a 17% rise in 4W sales volume and its market share rose from 51% to 60% over the same period. Today, we saw better performance of big caps; whereas smaller caps have ruled out for the past several days. At the same time, regional sentiment was mostly positive, thanks to a rebound in oil prices and the greenback consolidated recent gains. IDR recovered ground and traded around level. Nevertheless, underlying risk appetite remains cautious on concerns over capital outflows and weak data, especially from China. Accordingly, toward the end, profit taking hit mining sector, especially coal miners which have been rallied over the past two weeks. In the end, the JCI was up 0.4% at 5430 level in better volume at US$415mn (excluding US$131mn MAYA; US$28mn KPIG; US$17mn SILO; US$16mn ULTJ; US$7.2mn KREN; US$7.1mn MYRX; and US$6.7mn ASMI crossing). Regular market transaction was recorded at Rp5.4tn (US$414.4mn) and excluding foreign net sell from KPIG crossing, foreign still posted a net buy of Rp461.66bn (US$35.4mn). Foreign participants at 30% came up better buyer for 20%. Gainers and losers almost even out. As campaigning for the U.S. presidential elections enters its home stretch and concerns about the Chinese economy deepen after last week's weak trade data, risk aversion is broadly on the rise - forcing investors to cut positions after a strong rally in risky assets in the third quarter of Daily portfolio flows to emerging markets declined sharply last week with the seven-day moving average declining to its lowest level since a surprise Chinese currency devaluation in Aug 2015, according to data from Institute of International Finance. Adding to the headwinds for emerging markets is the growing likelihood of a U.S. rate increase in Dec which has lifted 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by 25 basis points so far this month and boosted the dollar. At the moment, traders have priced in a 70% chance that the Fed will hike at a Dec policymakers meeting, up from 66% early in the month, according to CME Group s FedWatch tool. TOP TURNOVER: BBCA ASII TLKM BBNI BBRI BMRI HRUM UNTR INCO BSDE LSIP PWON LPPF WSBP ANTM PTBA (30%) ADVANCING SECTOR: cement +2.2%; plantation +1.3%; property +1.2%; financial +0.1%; auto flat DECLINING SECTOR: telco -0.9%; mining -0.6%; consumer -0.5%; construction -0.2% The yield of 10-year government went up to 7.111% (+0.268%) and Rupiah strengthened to Rp13,032 (+0.283%). Sales Team FROM THE PRESS Budget in early 2017 will widen due to delay in DAU payment and carry over budget in 2016 The payment for General Allocation Fund (DAU) that is shifted from 2016 to 2017 is Rp4.6tn and the infrastructure budget in 2016 that is carried over to 2017 is around Rp7tn. Additionally, the Ministry of Public Housing (PU-Pera) admitted that early auction for 2017 projects will be conducted starting Oct16 with a total project value of Rp28tn (Kontan) Government rethinks free capital flow system Vice President Jusuf Kalla commented that bombastic tax amnesty redemption fee, repatriation, and asset declaration have shown the failure of free capital flow system in which national funds are easily transferred offshore. Hence, the government is currently rethinking the practice with Thailand and Malaysia as the benchmarks. In Thailand, for example, export proceeds must first be converted into national currency (Baht). Bank Indonesia, meanwhile, requires such proceeds to be kept onshore for at least 60 days. (Bisnis Indonesia) Page 3 of 8

4 Regional development banks fund government infra projects President Director of BJTM R Soeroso states that they are ready to fund a number of infrastructure projects through syndicate loans. The bank will fund the following projects: construction of the Probolinggo port, Pandaan-Malang toll road, and Kertosono toll road. BJTM has prepared Rp2tn to fund the government s infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, BJBR will fund the following toll roads: Cikopo-Palimanan, South Sentul-Kedunghalang-Kedungbadak-Simpang Yasmin, Kanci-Pejagan, and Gempol-Pandaan-Karangjati. (Bisnis Indonesia) Redemption funds from tax amnesty program tightens liquidity of banks According to BI s initial assumption, the tax amnesty program will tighten liquidity of banks as customers drawdown money to pay redemption fees, however this condition is only temporary. According to BI s data, overnight lending rate increased to 5%, even touching 5.1%, last week compared to 4.73% (max at 4.80%) this week. BI has stabilized the condition by increasing liquidity through term repo and FX swaps. (Kontan) West Java Provincial Government urged Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) to speed up TOD study The provincial government currently awaits KCIC s transit oriented development (TOD) study and Presidential Regulation Draft on Bandung Basin prior to adjusting spatial development plans of Cimahi, Bandung Regency, and West Bandung s. In addition, Ahmad Heryawan, the Governor of West Java, stated that the provincial government has not received any news nor formal invitation to discuss the High Speed Railway (HSR) project. (Bisnis Indonesia) Alam Sutra (ASRI) re-issues global bonds ASRI, through its subsidiary Alam Synergy Pte Ltd, issues global bonds in Singapore stock exchanges amounting to US$245mn to prolong bonds payment from 2019 to 2022 with 6.62 p.a. coupon rate, B2 rating from Moody s, B from S&P, and B+(EXP) from Fitch Ratings. YTM is at 6.75% and 35% buyback option of bonds is available at 109 in Jan 17. Total additional debt issuance from the deal is US$20mn. The global bonds are oversubscribed by about 3.3 times. (Investor Daily) Jasa Marga (JSMR) and Waskita Toll Road to divest its subsidiaries President Director of Waskita Toll Road, Herwidiakto, stated that the company intends to fund new toll road construction by divesting its operating toll roads in order to achieve the company s target of managing 2,000km toll roads by Waskita Toll Road also plans to initiate 1 toll road section in Java, although this initiative is still under feasibility study. On the other hand, JSMR also plans to divest its subsidiaries to expand its toll road portfolio. Note that both companies currently take part in Semarang Demak and Probolinggo Banyuwangi toll roads prequalification. (Bisnis Indonesia) Page 4 of 8

5 Indices Currencies and ADRs Major Commodities Last YTD Currency Last YTD Last YTD JCI 5, Rp/US$ 13, Oil spot (US$/bl) Dow Jones 18, US$/EUR Nickel spot (US$/mt) 10, Nikkei 16, YEN/US$ Gold spot (US$/oz) 1, SET 1, SGD/US$ Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 19, Hang Seng 23, CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 2, STI 2, ADR Stocks Soybean oil (US$/100gallons) S&P 500 2, TLK in Rp 21, Rubber forward (US /kg) Coal (US$/ton) Ishares indo Baltic Dry Index Property Valuation JCI Code Rec. Market Cap (Rp bn) Share price Target Price Discount to NAV RNAV per share (Rp) Premium (discount) to replacement cost Replacement cost per share (Rp) PE (x) ROE 16F 17F 16F 17F BSDE Buy 42,920 2,230 2,350-56% 5,038 44% 1, % 11.6% PWON Buy 34, % 1,207 69% % 24.7% SMRA Neutral 25,316 1,755 1,600-56% 3, % % 14.7% CTRA Buy 24,266 1,600 1,600-39% 2, % % 14.0% JRPT Buy 11, ,300-75% 3,242 19% % 20.4% ASRI Neutral 8, % 1, % % 6.3% LPCK Buy 4,402 6,325 10,000-74% 24,683 35% 4, % 14.6% MDLN Buy 5, % 1,165 44% % 6.6% CTRS Buy 5,719 2,890 4,000-78% 13,390-28% 4, % 13.9% Simple Average -61% % 14.1% Industrial Estate Valuation JCI Code Rec. Market Cap (Rp bn) Share price Target Price Discount to NAV RNAV per share (Rp) Premium (discount) to replacement cost Replacement cost per share (Rp) PE (x) ROE 16F 17F 16F 17F DMAS Buy 12, % % % 12.5% BEST Buy 3, % % % 9.0% SSIA Neutral 2, % 1,701-34% % 8.1% LPCK Buy 4,402 6,325 10,000-74% 24,683 35% 4, % 14.6% MDLN Buy 5, % 1,165 44% % 6.6% Simple Average -66% % 10.2% Page 5 of 8

6 Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit EPS Growth PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div.Yield Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) Mandiri Universe 5,430 5,550 4,197, , , % 15.9% % 1.8% Banking 949,853 67,909 83, % 22.7% N.A. N.A % 1.9% BBCA Neutral 16,050 13,000 (19.0) 395,713 18,174 21, % 17.7% N.A. N.A % 1.4% BBNI Buy 5,400 6, ,703 10,783 12, % 20.5% N.A. N.A % 3.2% BBRI Buy 12,200 14, ,964 25,817 30, % 19.1% N.A. N.A % 2.1% BBTN Buy 1,920 2, ,333 2,439 2, % 21.0% N.A. N.A % 2.4% BDMN Sell 3,920 3,500 (10.7) 37,572 3,375 3, % 9.5% N.A. N.A % 1.9% BJBR Neutral 1,600 1, ,514 1,522 1, % 16.9% N.A. N.A % 3.9% BJTM Neutral ,056 1,032 1, % 7.2% N.A. N.A % 8.6% BNGA Buy 890 1, ,367 1,670 3, % 97.0% N.A. N.A % 0.0% BNLI Buy , ,069 N/M N/M N.A. N.A % 0.0% BTPN Sell 2,650 2,200 (17.0) 15,477 1,648 1, % 10.4% N.A. N.A % 0.0% PNBN Buy 820 1, ,752 2,129 2, % 11.3% N.A. N.A % 0.0% Building Materials 133,727 9,374 10, % 7.0% % 3.8% INTP Neutral 16,875 20, ,121 4,368 4, % 5.3% % 5.6% SMCB Sell 1, (10.0) 7, N/M 10.1% % 1.6% SMGR Neutral 10,050 11, ,612 4,501 4, % 5.4% % 2.3% ARNA Buy , % 147.5% % 1.6% Constructions 88,728 4,132 5, % 21.8% % 0.6% ADHI Buy 2,360 3, , % 32.0% % 1.3% PTPP Buy 4,200 5, , , % 19.2% % 0.9% WIKA Buy 2,740 3, , % 23.9% % -1.3% WSKT Buy 2,640 3, ,326 1,634 1, % 12.7% % 1.0% WTON Buy 910 1, , % 54.2% % 1.2% Toll road 31,212 1,612 1, % -6.2% % 1.0% JSMR Neutral 4,590 5, ,212 1,612 1, % -6.2% % 1.0% Rice Mill 7, % 16.9% % 0.5% AISA U/R 2,180 U/R U/R 7, % 16.9% % 0.5% Consumer 1,182,584 33,682 37, % 10.7% % 1.0% ICBP Neutral 9,525 9,050 (5.0) 111,080 3,464 3, % 8.2% % 1.4% INDF Buy 8,650 10, ,955 3,801 3, % 2.2% % 2.6% MYOR Neutral 1,510 1, ,762 1,346 1, % 7.2% % 1.6% ULTJ U/R 4,730 U/R U/R 13, % 19.6% % 0.0% UNVR Neutral 44,475 41,400 (6.9) 339,344 6,358 7, % 13.5% % -1.9% GGRM Buy 66,175 72, ,327 5,902 7, % 21.7% % 1.5% HMSP Neutral 4,130 3,750 (9.2) 480,394 12,021 12, % 7.2% % 2.5% WIIM U/R 505 U/R U/R 1, n/a % 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% Healthcare 99,568 3,281 3, % 11.7% % 1.4% KLBF Neutral 1,735 1,500 (13.5) 81,328 2,156 2, % 11.2% % 1.1% SIDO Neutral (2.7) 8, % 12.9% % 2.9% TSPC Neutral 2,170 2,100 (3.2) 9, % 12.1% % 2.6% Hospital 54, % 12.2% % 0.5% MIKA Buy 2,900 3, , % 11.1% % 0.7% SILO Neutral 10,925 10,820 (1.0) 12, % 17.7% % 0.0% Retail 104,277 3,980 4, % 21.6% % 2.6% ACES Neutral , % 10.4% % 1.9% ERAA Neutral (5.5) 1, % 49.7% % 4.3% LPPF Buy 19,100 22, ,732 2,082 2, % 14.3% % 3.4% MAPI Buy 4,950 5, , % 194.2% % 0.0% MPPA Neutral 1,855 1, , % 49.9% % 0.5% RALS Neutral 1,230 1,180 (4.1) 8, % 6.5% % 2.9% TELE Buy 705 1, , % 18.6% % 4.1% Automotive 346,721 16,763 18, % 10.0% % 2.2% ASII Neutral 8,475 8,200 (3.2) 343,098 16,492 18, % 9.5% % 2.2% Page 6 of 8

7 Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit EPS Growth PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div.Yield Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) IMAS U/R 1,310 U/R U/R 3, N/M 53.7% % 1.4% Heavy Equipment 76,293 4,686 4, % 2.9% % 1.8% HEXA* U/R 2,900 U/R U/R 2, % 50.0% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% UNTR Sell 19,800 11,000 (44.4) 73,857 4,554 4, % 1.8% % 1.9% Plantation 42,245 2,145 3, % 40.5% % 1.6% AALI Buy 15,950 16, ,816 1,519 2, % 19.8% % 1.7% LSIP Buy 1,585 1, , % 85.0% % 1.3% SGRO U/R 1,915 U/R U/R 3, % 28.6% % 1.7% Property 167,339 11,167 11, % 6.1% % 0.6% APLN U/R 282 U/R U/R 5, , % 24.7% % 2.9% ASRI Neutral (25.2) 8,360 1, % -59.0% % 1.5% BSDE Buy 2,230 2, ,920 2,143 2, % 17.6% % 0.8% CTRA Buy 1,600 1, ,266 1,474 1, % -3.1% % -1.2% CTRS Buy 2,890 4, , % 1.8% % 2.0% JRPT Buy 825 1, , , % 11.6% % 1.0% LPCK Buy 6,325 10, , % -15.9% % 0.0% MDLN Buy , % -2.2% % 0.0% PWON Buy ,193 1,934 2, % 25.9% % 1.3% SMRA Neutral 1,755 1,600 (8.8) 25, , % 40.0% % 0.0% Industrial Estate 18,440 1,394 1, % 11.5% % 1.8% DMAS Buy , % 8.4% % 2.1% BEST Buy , % 18.8% % 0.4% SSIA Neutral , % 15.5% % 1.6% Poultry 82,720 3,547 4, % 22.2% % 1.2% CPIN U/R 3,700 U/R U/R 60,673 2,671 3, % 20.2% % 1.3% JPFA U/R 1,750 U/R U/R 18, % 25.8% % 0.8% MAIN U/R 1,515 U/R U/R 3, N/M 36.3% % 1.2% Coal 93,938 5,259 5, % 11.5% % 3.2% ADRO* Neutral 1,440 1,100 (23.6) 46, % 14.2% % 2.5% HRUM* Neutral 1,670 1,100 (34.1) 4, N/M 43.3% % 2.0% ITMG* Neutral 13,500 7,600 (43.7) 15, % 8.0% % 5.6% PTBA Neutral 12,200 9,200 (24.6) 28,115 1,542 1, % 12.7% % 3.1% Oil & Gas 62,301 7,044 7, % 8.0% % 5.7% PGAS* Sell 2,570 3, , % 10.5% % 5.7% Shipping 2, % 8.5% % 4.7% SOCI* Buy , % 11.0% % 4.7% Metal 36, N/M N/M % 0.4% ANTM Neutral (39.8) 7, % N/M % 0.1% INCO* U/R 2,890 U/R U/R 28, % 33.3% % 0.5% Telco 474,162 20,500 23, % 16.7% % 3.1% EXCL Neutral 2,420 3, , ,179 N/M 172.1% % 0.9% ISAT U/R 6,400 U/R U/R 34,777 1,013 1,908 N/M 76.0% % 2.1% TLKM Buy 4,230 3,800 (10.2) 415,284 19,083 20, % 9.5% % 3.3% Tower 69,050 3,540 4, % 26.3% % 0.0% TBIG Neutral 6,100 6,000 (1.6) 29,259 1,120 1, % 39.1% % 0.0% TOWR Buy 3,900 5, ,791 2,420 2, % 20.4% % 0.0% Media 68,435 3,175 3, % 16.0% % 2.6% SCMA Buy 2,630 3, ,455 1,599 1, % 16.9% % 2.9% MNCN Buy 2,100 2, ,980 1,576 1, % 15.0% % 2.1% Textile 4, % 19.2% % 0.0% SRIL* Buy , % 22.0% % 0.0% Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable Page 7 of 8

8 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Adrian Joezer Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal, Metal, Automotive ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Bob Setiadi Construction, Toll Road bob.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Francis Lim Quant, Health Care, Hospital francis.lim@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Mining, Plantation yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Laura Taslim Retail laura.taslim@mandirisek.co.id Priscilla Thany Banking priscilla.thany@mandirisek.co.id Ferdy Wan Building Material, Industrial Est., Media ferdy.wan@mandirisek.co.id Lakshmi Rowter Research Assistant lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id Gerry Harlan Research Assistant gerry.harlan@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Economist wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Aziza Nabila Amani Research Assistant aziza.amani@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Institutional Sales aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id Kevin Halim Institutional Sales kevin.halim@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id A. A. Damargumilang Pondok Indah Office Tower damar.gumilang@mandirisek.co.id Herianto Pondok Indah Prioritas herianto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutral (-10% to10%) and Sell (-10% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.