FOCUS Telkom Company Update 30 April 2015

Transcription

1 FOCUS XXX Company Update XX XXXXX 213 FOCUS Telkom Company Update 3 April 215 Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Ariyanto Kurniawan ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Sector : Telecom NEUTRAL Current Price Rp2,7 Price Target Rp2,9 (+7.4%) 52-wk range Rp3,4 - Rp2,228 Stock Data Bloomberg Code TLKM IJ Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/us$ mn) 259,227 / 2,59 Issued Shares (mn) 96,1 Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/us$ mn) 232./18. Major shareholder Gov of Indonesia 51.2% Public 48.8% EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 214F F F (1.4) Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) (5.1) (.2) 19.6 Relative to JCI (%) (2.1) (.8) Q15 Net Profit In-line TLKM s 1Q15 net profit of Rp3.8tr (+6%y-o-y) is inline with forecast. Its revenue grew 11%y-o-y to Rp23.6tr mainly driven by 28%y-o-y growth in data service. TLKM continues its aggressive network rollout in 1Q15 by adding 5,1 BTSs of which 89% are 3G/4G BTSs. Maintain Neutral, Rp2,9TP. 1Q15 net profit inline. Telkom (TLKM) s 1Q15 net profit of Rp3.8tr (19%qoq, 6%y-o-y) is in-line with our and consensus' FY15F earnings of Rp16.5tn (23% of forecast). 1Q15 revenue grew 11%y-o-y to Rp23.6tr mainly driven by strong growth from data (+28%y-o-y), which accounted for 3% of total revenue. Its EBITDA margin in 1Q15 improved to 53.1% (from 51.1% in 1Q14) as lower interconnection cost (-18%y-o-y) was offset by higher operations and maintenance as a result of continuous network expansions (+2%y-o-y). Strong growth from mobile unit. TSEL revenue grew 12%y-o-y to Rp17.1tr driven by mobile broadband which increased by 38%y-o-y driven by 55%y-o-y higher smartphone adoption to 43.7mn users. Data traffic also increased sharply to 89.6k TB (+11%y-o-y) but we estimate data price still declined to Rp47/MB(-8%q-o-q, -34%y-o-y) due to transitions to data packet subscribers. TSEL still managed its legacy business with revenue from voice which grew 8%y-o-y and SMS 5%y-o-y as a result of strong execution of cluster-based pricing. Aggressive network expansions. TSEL deployed 5,132 new BTSs, of which 89% are 3G/4G BTSs. TSEL has a total BTS of 9.6k units (+21.8%y-o-y) of which 48% are 3G/4G BTSs. Its 4G services are now available in 5 big cities including Jakarta, Bali, Bandung, Surabaya, and Medan. We forecast 2-25% capex/sales ratio with 6-7% for TSEL. Maintain Neutral, Rp2,9TP. We like TLKM for its strong position in the sector and attractive dividend yield of 4%. Its strong cash flow and healthy balance sheet will support 2-25% capex/sales as well as high dividend. Our Neutral call is due to limited upside to our TP of Rp2,9TP. TLKM is trading at 16.3x FY15F PE. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F EBITDA 4,154 43,626 46,781 5,188 53,571 Net Profit 12,85 14,25 15,343 16,428 17,4 Fully-diluted EPS (Rp) Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAE (%) Source: Company ( ), Mandiri Sekuritas ( ) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 5

2 Company Update 3 April 215 FIGURE 1. SALES BREAKDOWN TLKM - At a Glance FIGURE 2. OPERATING EXPENSES BREAKDOWN Other services, 3% SMS, 16% Data, internet, IT, 26% Cellular voice, 38% Others, 2% G&A, 6% Interconection expenses, 8% Personnel expenses, 16% Operations, maintenance, and telecommunicati on services, 37% Network, 1% Fixed line, 1% Interconnection, 5% Depreciation & amortization, 28% FIGURE 3. DATA TRAFFIC (AS OF FY14) FIGURE 4. DATA PRICE FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND (Rp) (%) (%) (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) (x) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 EPS EPS Growth [RHS] Net Debt/Equity (NDE) Interest Cover [RHS] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 5

3 Company Update 3 April 215 FIGURE 7. 1Q15 RESULT HIGHTLIGHTS In Rpbn 1Q15 1Q14 %YoY 4Q14 %QoQ 3M15 3M14 %YoY FY15F % ours % cons Revenue 23,616 21,25 11% 23,855-1% 23,616 21,25 11% 95,67 25% 25% Operating expenses (16,168) (14,332) 13% (16,61) -3% (16,168) (14,332) 13% (63,522) 25% 25% Operating profit 7,448 6,918 8% 7,245 3% 7,448 6,918 8% 32,85 23% 24% EBITDA 12,546 1,866 15% 12,34 2% 12,546 1,866 15% 5,89 25% 25% Net profit 3,814 3,585 6% 3,192 19% 3,814 3,585 6% 16,51 23% 23% Operating margin 31.5% 32.6% 3.4% 31.5% 32.6% 33.6% EBITDA margin 53.1% 51.1% 51.7% 53.1% 51.1% 53.1% Net margin 16.2% 16.9% 13.4% 16.2% 16.9% 17.3% Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 5

4 Company Update 3 April 215 Telkom Profit & Loss YE Dec (Rp Bn) 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Revenue 77,143 82,967 88,316 95,54 1,789 Gross Profit 31,828 35,45 36,744 39,117 41,288 Oper. Profit 25,698 27,846 29,53 31,352 33,55 EBITDA 4,154 43,626 46,781 5,188 53,571 Net Interest (1,459) (668) (38) (66) 84 Interest Expense (2,55) (1,54) (1,289) (1,138) (1,92) Interest Income ,72 1,176 Forex Losses/Gains Net Other (11) (29) Pre-Tax Profit 24,228 27,149 29,222 31,286 33,138 Income Tax (5,866) (6,859) (7,35) (7,822) (8,285) Others Minority Interests (5,512) (6,85) (6,573) (7,37) (7,454) Net Profit 12,85 14,25 15,343 16,428 17,4 Cash Flow YE Dec (Rp Bn) 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Operating Profit 25,698 27,846 29,53 31,352 33,55 Net Interest (1,459) (668) (38) (66) 84 Depr & Amort 14,456 15,78 17,252 18,836 2,516 Other expenses/income (11) (29) Other Gain / Loss Tax (5,866) (6,859) (7,35) (7,822) (8,285) Chg in Working Capital (39) 3,451 (1,62) Other Oper. Cash Flow (3,888) (5,259) (6,546) (6,867) (7,36) Oper. Cash Flow 28,891 34,262 31,56 36,332 38,662 Capital Expenditure (16,66) (25,494) (22,79) (23,764) (25,197) FCF (OPCF after Capex) 12,285 8,768 9,481 12,568 13,465 Other Investing CF 613 (1,878) 79 (35) (298) CF From Investing (15,993) (27,372) (21,37) (24,113) (25,495) Net Chg in Debts 1, (772) (1,776) (534) Equity Funds Raised (1,744) 3,512 Dividend (7,127) (8,354) (8,439) (1,678) (11,31) Other Financing CF 2,18 1,83 1,643 1,759 1,863 CF From Financing (5,449) (2,778) (7,567) (1,695) (9,981) Non-Recur. Inc (Exp) Extraord. Inc(Exp) Net Change in Cash 7,449 4,112 2,623 1,523 3,186 Cash at beginning 1,7 17,456 21,568 24,191 25,714 Cash at End 17,456 21,568 24,191 25,714 28,91 Valuation YE Dec 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) P/CF (x) Dividend Yield (%) Balance Sheet YE Dec (Rp Bn) 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Cash & ST Investment 17,456 21,568 24,191 25,714 28,91 Acct. Receivable 5,223 6,26 6,414 6,94 7,32 Inventory Others 4,715 4,972 5,236 5,538 5,852 Current Assets 27,973 33,75 36,456 38,724 42,637 Investments Fixed Assets 77,47 86,761 91,588 96,515 11,197 Others 6,74 7,811 7,12 7,452 7,749 Total Assets 111, , ,45 142, ,887 Curr. Liabilities 24,17 28,437 27,659 3,95 3,366 Acct. Payable 7,28 11,6 1,849 11,677 12,382 ST Borrowings 5,658 5,525 5,24 5,648 4,446 Others 11,169 11,312 11,786 12,77 13,538 Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Payable 13,617 14,731 14,46 12,6 12,728 Others 6,667 7,359 7,359 7,359 7,359 Total Liabilities 44,391 5,527 49,479 49,514 5,453 Shareholder s Equity 66,978 77,424 85,972 93,481 11,434 Key Ratios YE Dec 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Growth (% YoY) Sales EBIT EBITDA Net Profit Profitability (%) Gross Profit Margin Oper. Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Debt / Equity (%) 2.7 (1.7) (5.5) (8.6) (11.6) EBITDA/Gross Int. (x) Per Share Data (Rp) EPS CFPS BVPS DPS Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 5

5 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 1219, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Matthew Wibowo Retail matthew.wibowo@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Shipping aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Research Assistant yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Kelvin Wijaya Research Assistant kelvin.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Pondok Indah boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Tiara ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (1% or higher), Neutral (-1% to1%) and Sell (-1% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.