FOCUS Ciputra Surya Company Update 04 May 2015

Transcription

1 FOCUS XXX Company Update XX XXXXX 213 FOCUS Ciputra Surya Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Liliana S Bambang liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Sector : Property BUY Current Price Rp2,95 Price Target Rp3,6 (+22.%) 52-wk range Rp3,125 - Rp2,5 Stock Data Bloomberg Code CTRS IJ Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/us$ mn) 5,838 / 45 Issued Shares (mn) 1,979 Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/us$ mn) 2.3/.2 Major shareholder PT Ciputra Development Tbk 62.7% Others 37.3% EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 215F F (17.4) 217F (47.7) Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) (1.7) Relative to JCI (%) All s Well Ends Well CTRS booked NPAT of Rp146bn, up by 6% YoY. This is in-line with our expectation and consensus', comprising 22% of our FY15F NPAT and 25% of consensus'. Balance sheet also remains healthy, at net cash of Rp626bn. Maintain Buy with PT of Rp3,6. In-line 1Q15. CTRS booked NPAT of Rp146bn, up by 6% YoY. The result is inline with our expectation and consensus'. Despite the 27% YoY increase of its revenue, the company s operating profit is only up by 7% YoY to Rp124bn. We attribute this due to the decline on the company s gross margin and the 49% increase in its advertising and promotion expense. CTRS s development gross margin is down to 46% in 1Q15 versus 51% in 1Q15. However, if we adjust it with the final tax (as final tax is now booked in the COGS), CTRS s development gross margin is still very strong at 53%. Healthy balance sheet. CTRS booked net cash of Rp626bn as of 1Q15. Cashflow from operations in 1Q15 is at net positive Rp33bn. Advanced from customers is slightly down by 3% YoY to Rp2.4tn. We estimate that CTRS s advance from customers is sufficient to cover 2 years' revenue. FINANCIAL SUMMARY 1Q15 marketing sales is a bit weak. CTRS booked marketing sales of Rp345bn, 13% of its FY15F marketing sales target of Rp2.6tn and 16% of our projected marketing sales target of Rp2.2tn. In addition to soft demand in Surabaya, we think the marketing sales are weak in 1Q15 as the company has not launched some of its new projects just yet. Internally, the company s target is more than Rp3tn, as they expect to launch its reclamation project in Makassar around November. The project is expected to generate marketing sales of Rp1tn. Maintain Buy. We maintain our Buy rating on CTRS with PT of Rp3,6. The company is currently trading at 59% discount to NAV and FY15F P/E of 9.1x. Key risk to our forecast and recommendation is weaker than expected demand in Surabaya areas. EBITDA Net Profit Fully-diluted EPS (Rp) Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) (23.8) (6.2) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAE (%) Source: Company ( ), Mandiri Sekuritas ( ) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 5

2 FIGURE 1. SALES BREAKDOWN FY15F Investment Properties 11% CTRS - At a Glance FIGURE 2. GROSS PROFIT BREAKDOWN FY15F Investment Properties 5% Development Income 89% Development Income 95% FIGURE 3. MARKETING SALES FORECAST Rp bn 3,5 3,211 21% YoY 3, 2,5 2,396 2,215 2, 1,834 1,5 1,363 1, ,681 FIGURE 4. MARKETING SALES BREAKDOWN FY15F Others 43% Citraland greenlake Surabaya 7% Citraland Surabaya 22% Citraland Bagya City Medan 18% Citragarden Sidoarjo 3% Citraharmoni Sidoarjo 6% Citragarden Lampung % - 21A 211A 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND (Rp) (%) (2) (4) (%) 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (4) (x) Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 Dec-21 Dec-22 EPS EPS Growth [RHS] Net Debt/Equity (NDE) Interest Cover [RHS] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 5

3 FIGURE 7. CTRS QUARTERLY Rpbn 3M15 3M14 %yoy 1Q15 4Q14 %qoq 1Q14 %yoy FY15C % of cons. Revenue , Gross profit , 19.8 Operating profit Pretax profit Net profit Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) Pretax margin (%) Net margin (%) Source: Company Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 5

4 Ciputra Surya Profit & Loss Revenue 1,262 1,713 2,223 1,948 1,976 Gross Profit , Oper. Profit EBITDA Net Interest (7) 2 39 Interest Expense (41) (41) (5) (5) (5) Interest Income Forex Losses/Gains Net Other Pre-Tax Profit Income Tax (75) (92) (123) (11) (112) Others Minority Interests Net Profit Cash Flow Operating Profit Net Interest (7) 2 39 Depr & Amort Other expenses/income Other Gain / Loss Tax (75) (92) (123) (11) (112) Chg in Working Capital 36 (376) Other Oper. Cash Flow Oper. Cash Flow Capital Expenditure (175) (313) (153) (15) (15) FCF (OPCF after Capex) 638 (58) Other Investing CF (148) (169) 175 (63) (16) CF From Investing (324) (482) 22 (213) (166) Net Chg in Debts (33) (12) 77 (6) 3 Equity Funds Raised Dividend (63) (119) (134) (148) (113) Other Financing CF (35) 12 (84) CF From Financing (131) (11) (142) (154) (11) Non-Recur. Inc (Exp) Extraord. Inc(Exp) Net Change in Cash 359 (239) Cash at beginning 87 1, ,752 2,142 Cash at End 1, ,752 2,142 2,59 Valuation YE Dec 213A 214A 215F 216F 217F PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) P/CF (x) Dividend Yield (%) Balance Sheet Cash & ST Investment 1, ,752 2,142 2,59 Acct. Receivable Inventory 1,87 1,996 1,425 1,82 1,766 Others Current Assets 3,277 3,254 3,699 4,4 4,818 Investments Fixed Assets 943 1, Others 2,746 3,224 3,199 3,413 3,579 Total Assets 5,77 6,121 6,497 7,366 7,94 Curr. Liabilities 2,826 2,666 2,541 3,74 3,262 Acct. Payable ST Borrowings Others 2,666 2,531 2,365 2,916 3,96 Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Payable Others Total Liabilities 3,275 3,13 3,54 3,582 3,772 Shareholder s Equity 2,495 3,19 3,443 3,785 4,131 Key Ratios YE Dec 213A 214A 215F 216F 217F Growth (% YoY) Sales (12.4) 1.4 EBIT (25.) (8.1) EBITDA (25.) (8.1) Net Profit (23.8) (6.2) Profitability (%) Gross Profit Margin Oper. Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Debt / Equity (%) (33.) (2.) (37.8) (44.7) (51.8) EBITDA/Gross Int. (x) Per Share Data (Rp) EPS CFPS BVPS 1,124 1,328 1,585 1,758 1,933 DPS Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 5

5 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 1219, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Matthew Wibowo Retail matthew.wibowo@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Shipping aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Research Assistant yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Kelvin Wijaya Research Assistant kelvin.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Pondok Indah boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Tiara ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (1% or higher), Neutral (-1% to1%) and Sell (-1% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.