FOCUS Bank Tabungan Negara Company Update 14 February 2017

Transcription

1 FOCUS XXX Company Update XX XXXXX 213 FOCUS Bank Tabungan Negara Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Tjandra Lienandjaja Priscilla Thany Sector : Banking BUY Current Price Rp2,3 Price Target Rp2,35 (+15.8) 52-wk range Rp2,1 - Rp1,43 Stock Data Bloomberg Code BBTN IJ Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/us$ mn) 21,498 / 1,613 Issued Shares (mn) 1,59 Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/us$ mn) 29.8/2.2 Major shareholder Gov of Indonesia 6. Public 4. EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 216F F F Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute () Relative to JCI () FY216 Results- Better Than Expectations BBTN reported audited 216 net earnings of Rp2.6tn, +41y-y, accounting for 113 of consensus and 18 of our expectations. NPL declined substantially to 2.84 in Dec-16 from 3.6 in Sept-16 while loan growth remained strong at +18 y-y and deposit growth was at 25. FY16 net earnings of Rp2,619bn, +41 y-y, accounted for 113 of consensus and 18 of our estimates. Net earnings were Rp998bn (+59 y-y, +72 q-q) in 4Q16. The good results were supported by high loan and deposit growths as well as lower corporate income tax. In addition the bank booked Rp357bn of additional interest income, coming from the payment of interest rate subsidy for 215 FLPP whose scheme was changed from government placement of Rp4.8tr to interest subsidy. The 18 y-y loan growth was supported by housing loans (+18.4 y-y), while nonhousing loans posted y-y increase. This further increased housing loans portion to 9. of total loans in 216 from 89.9 in 215. Of the housing loans, subsidized housing loans posted +3.6 y-y increase, non-subsidized housing loans +12.9, and construction loans Of the non-housing loans, consumer loans posted and commercial loans (mostly to state construction companies) y-y. Deposit growth of 25 y-y, more on CASA. Current accounts increased 46 y- y, savings accounts +13, while time deposits were +21 y-y. This helps lower cost of funds and improved margin. Asset quality improved substantially. NPL went down to 2.84 in Dec 16 from 3.6 in Sep 16 on write offs (mostly for KUR, which is part of commercial loans), repayment, and real improvement from NPL to performing loans. Most segments showed NPL reduction, except for nonsubsidized housing loans (2.65 in Dec compared to 2.57 in Sep) and other housing loans (3.59 vs. 3.44). BTN wrote off Rp676bn of bad debts in 216 compared to Rp285bn in 215 while coverage ratio increased to 45 in Dec 16 from 39 in Sep and 43 in Dec 15. The special mention loans (category 2) also improved to 1.2 from 12.5 in 215, while restructured loans increased to 5.1 of total loans from 4.9 in Sep and 3. in Dec 15. Hence the total loans in question fell to 15.1 in Dec16 from 16.9 in Dec15. NIM declined slightly to 4.67 in 216 from 4.71 in 215. On the quarterly basis, NIM was at 5.59 in 4Q16 vs in. This was due to payment of the interest rate subsidy in Dec 16, in addition to asset quality improvement. Prior to the payment on interest subsidy, BTN had to use its own funds to finance the subsidized housing loans, which now account for 34.6 of total loans. Rp274bn additional charges for bank fraud and lower income tax rate. BTN sets aside this cost to cover the potential losses for deposit fraud, which was found in 4Q16. A syndicate issued a counterfeit deposit certificate which had been paid by the bank upon maturity and the case is already in police custody. While the bank posted 31 y-y growth in pretax profit to Rp3,33bn, its income tax rate is now at 21.4, down from 27.2 in 215. This helps support the 41 earnings growth. Maintain Buy with TP of Rp2,35. We will be reviewing our numbers for the counter, which is trading at 1.2x P/BV 217F based on the current forecast. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 6

2 BBTN - At a Glance FIGURE 1. LOAN, DEPOSIT GROWTH, AND LDR () Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 ( YoY) LDR Total Loan Growth (YoY) [RHS] Total Deposit Growth (YoY) [RHS] FIGURE 2. NET INTEREST MARGIN () Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 NIM Interest Yield Cost of Funds FIGURE 3. LOAN BREAKDOWN FIGURE 4. DEPOSIT BREAKDOWN Q8 2Q9 4Q9 2Q1 4Q1 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 Subsidized mortgages Non-subsidized mortgages Other housing Construction loans Consumer loan Commercial loans Q8 2Q9 4Q9 2Q1 4Q1 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 Current Accounts Savings Time Deposits 4Q16 FIGURE 5. NPL & COVERAGE RATIO FIGURE 6. CAR & EQUITY () 6 () 6. Rp Bn 25, () , , 1, , Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 Loan Loss Coverage NPL [RHS] Capital Base Total CAR [RHS] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 6

3 217 guidelines: asset growth of 2-22, loan growth of 21-23, deposit growth of 22-24, equity growth of >2, net profit growth of >2, NPL of <2.5 (plus cat 2 loans of <8), NIM of 4.5-5, LDR of 11-13, ROE of 16-18, ROA of The management indicated that the portion of FLPP for 217 is likely to be kept unchanged at 9:1 portion between the government s funds and BTN s for the subsidized housing loans. The bank also plans to increase its exposure on non-subsidized housing loans to 4 of total loan book from 36.8 currently. FIGURE 7. FY216 AND 4Q16 RESULTS Income Statement (Rp bn) 12M15 12M16 YoY 4Q15 4Q16 YoY QoQ FY16F of FY16F Net interest income 6,867 8, ,99 1,93 2, , Non interest income 1,124 1, , Fees and Commissions Forex Income (1) (2) 17 1 (1) (2) (311) (8) Others FY16 Cons FY16F Cons Operating income 7,99 9, ,248 2,21 3, , , Provisioning expense (894) (78) (21) (236) (173) (228) (3) 32 (78) 1 Operating expense (4,562) (5,475) 2 (1,198) (1,226) (1,661) (5,263) 14 Personnel Expenses (1,459) (1,619) 11 (298) (389) (34) 14 (13) (1,646) 98 Other Expenses (3,13) (3,856) 24 (91) (837) (1,321) (3,617) 17 Operating profit 2,534 3, , , ,59 11 PPOP 3,428 4,6 18 1, , , Pre-tax profit 2,542 3, , , ,44 19 Net profit 1,851 2, , , Balance Sheet (Rp bn) Dec-15 Sep-16 Dec-16 Gross loan 138, , , Demand deposit 3,882 37,558 44, Saving deposit 29,872 28,85 33, Time deposit 66,992 81,829 81, Total deposit 127, ,471 16, YoY QoQ CASA to deposits () Ratio () 12M15 12M16 4Q15 4Q16 CAR Tier 1 CAR LDR NIM ROE NPL, cat Loan loss coverage Cost to Income Restructured Loan Source: Company, Mandiri Sekurtias Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 6

4 FIGURE 8. FINANCIAL SUMMARY Pre-Provision Profit 2,349 3,428 4,6 4,391 5,191 Net Profit 1,146 1,851 2,619 2,843 3,37 EPS EPS Growth () (26.7) P/E Ratio (x) BVPS 1,155 1,31 1,526 1,73 1,995 P/BV Ratio (x) Dividend Yield () ROAE () CAR () Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 6

5 BTN Profit & Loss Interest Income 13,374 15,567 17,852 2,33 23,226 Interest Expense (7,893) (8,7) (9,6) (11,128) (12,655) Net Interest Inc. 5,482 6,867 8,252 9,175 1,571 Other Oper. Inc ,124 1,283 1,457 1,679 Operating Exp. (4,51) (4,562) (5,475) (6,241) (7,59) Personnel Exp.. (1,26) (1,459) (1,619) (1,889) (2,33) G & A (2,79) (3,13) (3,856) (4,352) (5,26) Others Pre-Prov. Profit 2,349 3,428 4,6 4,391 5,191 Provision Exp. (772) (894) (78) (792) (924) Operating Inc. 1,577 2,534 3,352 3,599 4,266 Pre-tax Income 1,579 2,542 3,33 3,598 4,266 Tax Expenses (434) (691) (711) (756) (896) Minority Int. Net Profit 1,146 1,851 2,619 2,843 3,37 Balance Sheet Assets Cash 92 1,181 1,7 1,648 1,976 Due to BI 9,372 1,986 1,779 12,5 15, Interbank Placement 1, ,14 1,324 Securities-Net 15,171 17,519 3,27 3,717 37,82 Gross Loan 115, , , , ,717 Loan Loss Prov. (1,577) (2,51) (2,116) (2,44) (2,864) Fixed Assets 1,488 1,553 4,659 5,227 5,653 Other Assets 2,191 3,12 4,157 2,252 3,599 Total Assets 144, ,88 214, , ,27 Liabilities & Equity Liabilities Demand Deposits 23,231 3,882 44,96 48,492 62,416 Saving Deposits 25,547 29,872 33,345 37,963 46,586 Time Deposits 57,71 66,992 81,941 91,779 14,7 Total Third Party Funds 16, ,746 16, , ,72 Deposits From Oth. Banks Securities Issued 12,338 13,72 12,935 16,767 18,485 Borrowings 8,184 1,98 14,843 25,257 31,95 Subordinated Loan Other Liabilities 5,369 6,15 7,68 6,675 6,945 Total Liabilities 132,37 157, ,38 226, ,82 Minority Interest Shareholder's Equity 12,26 13,86 19,131 18,324 21,125 Total Liab. and Equity 144, ,88 214, , ,27 Key Ratios Growth ( YoY) Assets Loans Earnings Assets Non-Performing Loans Deposits Shareholders' Equity (4.2) 15.3 Net interest income (2.8) Non-interest income Operating expenses Pre-provision profit (8.8) Net profit (26.7) Common Ratios () NIM LDR NPL Coverage ratio ROAE ROAA Total CAR Tier 1 CAR Other Ratios () Yield on earning assets Avg. cost of funds Net Interest Spread CASA deposits Cost to income Equity to assets Dividend payout Effective tax rate Per Share Data YE Dec 214A 215A 216A 217F 218F EPS BVPS 1,155 1,31 1,526 1,73 1,995 DPS Valuations P/BV (x) P/E (x) P/PPOP (x) Dividend yield () Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 5 of 6

6 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 1219, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Sales) RESEARCH Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Adrian Joezer Consumer, Strategy adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal, Metal, Automotive ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Bob Setiadi Construction, Toll Road bob.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Francis Lim Quant, Health Care, Hospital francis.lim@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Mining, Plantation yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Laura Taslim Retail laura.taslim@mandirisek.co.id Priscilla Thany Banking priscilla.thany@mandirisek.co.id Ferdy Wan Building Material, Industrial Est., Media ferdy.wan@mandirisek.co.id Lakshmi Rowter Research Assistant lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id Gerry Harlan Research Assistant gerry.harlan@mandirisek.co.id Audrey C. Hanzdima Research Assistant audrey.hanzdima@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Economist wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Aziza Nabila Amani Research Assistant aziza.amani@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Institutional Sales aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id Kevin Halim Institutional Sales kevin.halim@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id A. A. Damargumilang Pondok Indah Office Tower damar.gumilang@mandirisek.co.id Herianto Pondok Indah Prioritas herianto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15 or higher), Neutral (-15 to1) and Sell (-15 or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.