INVESTOR DIGEST HIGHLIGHT ECONOMY. Equity Research 2 February 2017

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1 INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research 2 February 2017 Economic Data Latest 2017F 7-DRRR (%), eop Inflation (YoY %) US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 13,369 13,450 HIGHLIGHT Administered Inflation Made Surprising 2017 Debut Quant Quest: Spicing up Growth XL Axiata: Expect Stronger Outlook This Year (EXCL; Rp2,850; Neutral; TP:Rp2,700) Market Recap Feb 1 st 2016; JCI: 5, (+0.62%); USD/IDR: 13,369; Total Value: Rp7.54tn Stock Market Data (1 Feb 2017) JCI Index 5, % Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 6,696.4 Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 5,785.8 Market Data Summary* EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Div. Yield (%) Earnings Yield (%) Net Gearing (%) ROE (%) * Aggregate of 80 companies in MS research universe, representing of JCI s market capitalization ECONOMY Administered Inflation Made Surprising 2017 Debut Above expectation. Jan17 registered 0.97% MoM inflation, above our (0.58% MoM) and consensus expectations (0.71% MoM). Annually, inflation accelerated to 3.49% from 3.02% and likewise the core measure to 3.35% from 3.07%; the latter is the first occurrence since Jun16. Surprise upside came from administered prices, namely vehicle registration number (STNK) renewal fee and electricity tariff. Administered prices jacked up inflation. Foodstuffs were relatively calm provided 0.14ppt contribution to the monthly inflation. On the other hand, administered prices surprised on its 0.50ppt which was mostly contributed by STNK renewal fee (0.23ppt) and electricity tariff (0.19ppt). We had previously underestimated the impact of STNK (0.05ppt) and priced in first phase 900VA electricity tariff adjustment effect in Feb17 for post-paid customers whereas about 30% are actually using prepaid voucher. Nonetheless, STNK inflation effect is a one-off and therefore should normalize going forward. Meanwhile, affecting core inflation were phone credit (0.14ppt), cigarettes (0.04ppt), and house rent (0.04ppt). Maintain YE17 inflation forecast; risk on fuel prices. We are maintaining our YE17F inflation of 4.2%. The full ppt inflationary effect of 900VA electricity adjustment will be spread in 1H17 with some offset by foodstuffs harvest in between the period. While gasoline and diesel prices are maintained in 1Q17, there is potential that they could be adjusted later this year if international oil price continues to rise. Assuming that brent oil price persists at US$60/barrel and exchange rate hovers around Rp13,400/US$, our simulation shows economical gasoline price of Rp7,400/liter, about 14.7% more expensive than currently sold for 1Q17. In such scenario, we estimate additional 0.3ppt inflation. Reiterate flat policy rate projection. Bank Indonesia governors will meet and decide monetary policy stance on Thursday, 16 Feb17. We are expecting another hold on the back of higher inflationary pressure and rising expectation this year. Currency fluctuation in 2H17 is another consideration. The rupiah has had a good start on US$ weakness (2.6% YtD) and sustained capital inflow into Page 1 of 11

2 government bond (US$1.6bn YtD). However, fluctuation may await in 2H17 in the wake of a prospect of more aggressive Fed tightening. In anticipation of such risks, we think Bank Indonesia will maintain the 7-day reverse repo rate at the present 4.75% for the rest of Dec-16 Jan-17 MS Forecast Market Consensus Actual Headline inflation (%, YoY) Headline inflation (%, MoM) Headline inflation (%, YtD) Core inflation (%, YoY) Leo Rinaldy( ) Wisnu Trihatmojo ( ) leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id STRATEGY Quant Quest: Spicing up Growth The MQQ recorded a small gain of 0.06% (vs JCI s -0.05%) in January amid a thinly traded market. 6 out of the 10 top picks managed to record profits but overall performance was dragged lower by PTBA (-7.2%) and PTPP (-5.8%). With incoming catalyst, we expect a more respectable market movement in February. EQUAL-WEIGHTED PERFORMANCE OF THE MQQ TEN-STOCK PORTFOLIO MQQ JCI Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Top picks for February 17. We reshuffle our MQQ ten-stock portfolio, adding TARA and KLBF to replace BBNI and PTBA. The MQQ is taking profit in BBNI as there are currently no characteristics that make the stock stand out among others. PTBA was due to deterioration in profitability and risk. The two new additions have a very balanced profile, and are thus beneficial from a diversification standpoint. January was uneventful for the JCI. January was like a replay of December. Initial performance of the MQQ ten-stock portfolio was strong but reversed somewhen mid-month along with the JCI amid a thinly traded market. The last trading hour has again cost us the dough from some significant share price reactions. All in all, the MQQ managed to beat the JCI with a modest gain of 0.06% (JCI s -0.05%). Losers were PTBA (-7.2%) and PTPP (-5.8%), and cement stocks also dragged. Winners were bank stocks BJTM (+7.9%) and BBNI (+3.2%). Page 2 of 11

3 MQQ: Spicing up Growth. Our view on limited risk of Fed rate hikes in 1H17 remains. Meanwhile, fund flow pressure has also appeared to ease. While investors sat on the sideline in January, we expect February to bring more respectable market movements. 4Q16 GDP will be released by BI on the 6th, then all eyes will fall on the Jakarta governor election on the 15 th, which is largely regarded as a big test for a more moderate Indonesia at both domestic and overseas. The MQQ overweight on Growth exposure this month. Francis Lim ( ) francis.lim@mandirisek.co.id CORPORATE XL Axiata: Expect Stronger Outlook This Year (EXCL; Rp2,850; Neutral; TP:Rp2,700) EXCL s FY16 EBITDA was inline with forecast. EBITDA margin declined to 34.7% in 4Q16 (vs. 37.8% in 9M16) due to higher operating expenses. We cut our FY17-18F EBITDA by 2-4% after imputing 2% lower revenue. We reiterate our Neutral call with Rp2,700TP. FY16 EBITDA inline. EXCL s 4Q16 EBITDA declined by-21%yoy/-8%qoq to Rp1.8tr due to higher operating cost (higher leasing cost and higher promotion expenses) which has led to lower EBITDA margin of 34.7% in 4Q16 (vs. 37.8% in 9M16). EXCL s FY16 EBITDA of Rp8.1tr (-4%yoy), accounting for 98%/96% of our and consensus' forecast. In the meantime, EXCL s FY16 net profit of Rp376bn was above our and consensus' forecast, helped by Rp1.7tr gain from tower sales. Stronger growth outlook this year? EXCL is the only operator under our coverage with poor top line growth in 2016 compared to double digit growth of peers. EXCL s 4Q16 revenue declined by-12%yoy/flat-qoq to Rp5.3tr. Its FY16 revenue declined by 7%yoy to Rp21.3tr due to sharp drop in non-data revenue (-23%yoy), while revenue from data remains strong (+31%yoy) due to strong data traffic. The company s effort to improve its traditional distribution channel by changing better commission structure may lead to better revenue outlook, in our view. In the meantime, EXCL expects 4G monetization to happen this year as other operator has started reducing bonus quota as they have started to see network congestion. This year, the management anticipates high single digit revenue growth, inline with the market, mainly driven by data. Maintain Neutral, Rp2,700TP. While we expect stronger top line growth this year, we may only see a meaningful recovery in 2H17, as improving its traditional distribution channel may take time to materialize We cut our FY17-18F EBITDA by 2-4% after imputing 2% lower revenue. Nevertheless, we increase our TP to Rp2,700 (3%LTG, 11%WACC)on lower discount rate. EXCL currently trades at 4.7x FY17F EV/EBITDA vs. TLKM of 6.1x and ISAT of 4.0x. We will be more positive on EXCL if we see an improvement in 1Q17. FORECAST CHANGE 2017F 2018F In Rpbn New Old %change New Old %change Profit & Loss Revenue 22,943 23,319-2% 24,500 25,018-2% Operating expenses (22,102) (21,558) 3% (23,199) (23,075) 1% Operating profit 841 1,762-52% 1,300 1,943-33% EBITDA 8,990 9,351-4% 9,792 10,032-2% Net profit (106) % % Operating margin 3.7% 7.6% 5.3% 7.8% EBITDA margin 39.2% 40.1% 40.0% 40.1% Net margin -0.5% 2.3% 1.1% 2.9% Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Ariyanto Kurniawan ( ) ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Page 3 of 11

4 TAX AMNESTY MARKET Market Recap Feb 1 st 2016; JCI: 5, (+0.62%); USD/IDR: 13,369; Total Value: Rp7.54tn Again the USD was put on the defensive in Asia on Wed after the Trump administration accused Germany and Japan of devaluing their currencies to gain a trade advantage, fuelling a risk-off mood that also kept stocks subdued. The US currency suffered its worst January in three decades after President Donald Trump complained that every "other country lives on devaluation. The accusations drew rebuttals from German and Japanese officials, but looked likely to run for some time. The dollar did recoup a little of its losses as the Asian session wore on, the DXY stood at , having ended Jan 17 with a loss of 2.6%, its worst since Jan The share price of EXCL skidded as much as 2.1% to close at 2850, the most since Dec 21 st, after it missed full-year sales estimate. FY16 sales reached Rp21.3tn vs estimated Rp21.9tn vs FY15 Rp22.9tn. Meanwhile, the retreat in the dollar boosted a range of commodities, with copper touching a two-month high. At the same time, the recent regulatory changes to relax mineral exports looked to benefit some domestic miners, including MEDC as potential copper concentrate exporter. MEDC s share price jumped by 9.7% to close at 1525, after planning to start constructing a copper smelter before YE17. The rest of the market still focused on small caps such as Bakrie Group, PANR, and BIRD. PANR has been on the rise since yesterday (+3.3% to close at 780) after news report that JTB from Japan will form capital and business tie-up with Panorama Group by taking a 40% stake in PANR. In addition, BIRD rose as much as 4.3% to close at 2900 after officially cooperating with GoJek. GoJek s GoCar function will allow users to get a Blue Bird taxi with the same tariffs and promos as GoCar fleets, including a 30% discount when paying with GoPay. Market participants basically ignored worse-than-expectation Jan 17 inflation which rose 0.97% MoM to 3.49% vs 3.02% in similar period last year. Sector wise, miner led the rally in the JCI as China s favorable PMI and India s measures to boost its economy have given some confidence in the global economic outlook this year. The Jakarta Mining Index rose 1.4%, Page 4 of 11

5 the biggest gainer among nine industry groups. The JCI stayed around 5325-ish range and later improved to close 0.6% higher at 5327 level. Market turnover also rose 17% d/d to US$501mn (excluding US$9.5mn MYRX; US$3.8mn RODA; US$3.5mn BUMI crossing). Foreign posted a net buy of Rp363.86bn (US$27.2mn) and foreign participants at 25% came up better buyer for 32%. Gainers beat losers by 11 to 10. YTD foreign still posted a net sell of Rp1.2tn (US$91.9mn). Chinese markets were still on holiday but surveys from the Asian giant showed manufacturing and services activity continued to expand in Jan 17. Exports from tech bellwether South Korea also grew at the fastest pace in almost five years, another sign the global economy had been on the mend before all the talk of U.S. protectionism darkened the air. Investors' hopes for a fiscal boost to the world's largest economy under Trump have been tempered by controversial and protectionist policies that have seen him suspend travel to the United States from seven Muslim-majority countries. The policy uncertainty only added to expectations the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady when it concludes a two-day meeting later on Wednesday. The setback for Wall Street has been limited so far. TOP TURNOVER: BUMI BBNI BBRI BRMS BMRI TLKM ENRG ELTY ASII INCO BBCA UNTR PGAS (45%) ADVANCING SECTOR: mining +1.4%; financial +1.1%; construction +0.8%; consumer & auto +0.6%; DECLINING SECTOR: plantation -1.7%; cement -0.9%; property & telco -0.7% The yield of 10-year government went down to 7.646% (-0.05%) and Rupiah depreciated to Rp13,369 (-0.22%). Sales Team FROM THE PRESS ADB has committed to give loans to Indonesia ADB affirmed its commitment to give US$2bn/year worth of loans to Indonesia in the medium term. Within the period of , Indonesia s partnership with ADB focuses on developing infrastructure, strengthening economic governance, and improving education and skills. In 2016, ADB has given loans worth US$1.8bn to Indonesia, for which US$1.3bn is directed to the government. (Investor Daily) Dec16 MSME loan growth +8.4%yoy BI reported MSME loan growth of +8.4%yoy as per Dec16, this is lower than Nov s MSME loan growth of +11.4%yoy. Meanwhile, micro loans in the month of Dec only grew by +10.9%yoy vs %yoy in Nov, small business loans only grew by +11.8%yoy in Dec vs %yoy in Nov, and medium loans only grew by +5.2%yoy in Dec vs. +7.7% in Nov. (Investor Daily) Government releases Economic Justice Policy Aimed at improving welfare and reducing inequality, the policy targets agriculture sector, capital access for SMEs, employment. The government will provide landless farmer access to acquire land and will start with data collection on land ownership. Tax will also be utilized as the government intends to impose progressive tax on those with assets, strong capital, and big profits. There will also be capital gain on land sales, all according to Jakarta Globe. Separately, the Indonesia Statistic announces that Sep16 Gini Ratio declines 0.003ppt to relative to Mar16 position, implying improving equality (Jakarta Globe, Kontan) Jakarta Government to reduce land and building transfer duty (BPHTB) Jakarta Provincial Government is currently proposing the revision on Provincial Regulation No. 18/2010 on land and building transfer duty from 5% to 2.5% and 1% for DIRE. Worth noting, Jakarta Government targets Rp5.3tn income from BPHTB, up by 36% from last year achievement. (Bisnis Indonesia) Page 5 of 11

6 JLL: apartment market to improve. According to Head of Research JLL, James Taylor, sales in 2017 will increase due to rupiah stabilization, improvement on macroeconomic, regulation, and demand. 4Q16 shows negative sentiment from buyers as supply for vertical residential since 2016 to 2020 amounts to 63,000 unit. However, only 69% was sold. In addition, James states that two finished project in 4Q16 (Ciputra World 2 and Daan Mogot City) will bring 1,249 units for all areas in Jakarta and all developers are still robust in marketing sales despite of market condition. (Investor daily) OJK to review a special KUR scheme Chief Commissioner of OJK Muliaman D Hadad states that OJK will release a new lending scheme in order to accelerate 40% distribution of KUR to the productive sector. Going forward OJK plans to come up with a more comprehensive KUR scheme. OJK also plans to increase the number of KUR distributors in order to accelerate distribution to the productive sector. (Investor Daily) Nielsen: gross national Adex grew by 14% Nielsen research stated gross national adex last year grew by 14% YoY to Rp134.8tn (2015: 8% YoY), mainly driven by gross TV adex growth of 22% YoY. Of total adex last year, 77% or about Rp103.8tn was contributed from TV while 22% came from newspaper and the remaining from magazines. Both newspapers and magazines fell by 4.5% YoY and 15.8% YoY, respectively. Top 5 segment contributions for adex were government and political parties, followed by cigarettes, hair care, telecommunication, and tea and coffee. (Investor Daily) Priority Infrastructures Provision Acceleration Committee (KPPIP) to add new strategic projects Program Director of KPPIP, Rainer Haryanto, stated that the committee would extend the submission deadline for new strategic project proposal. Note that there are currently 225 strategic projects stipulated in the Presidential Instruction No.3/2016.The Ministry of Public Work and Public Housing (PUPR) has proposed additional 25 projects which consist of 13 toll roads, 1 dam, 4 irrigation, 1 pipeline, and 6 industrial areas. Below is 19 projects which have met strategic project s criteria. (Bisnis Indonesia) Toll Road Irrigation Pipeline Pasuruan Probolinggo Bukittinggi Padang Lematang Karian Probolinggo Banyuwangi Dumai Rantau Prapat Leuwigoong Yogyakarta Solo Rantau Prapat Kisaran Baliase Semarang Demak Langsa Lhokseumawe Gumbasa Lhokseumawe - Sigli Pekanbaru Bukittinggi Sigli Banda Aceh Dam Sukabumi Ciranjang Padalarang Binjai Langsa Randangan Bank Bukopin (BBKP) to issue subordinate debts in 1H17 BBKP will issue subdebts in 1H17 totaling to Rp1.6tn. This should increase the bank s CAR by 1-1.5%. BBKP also plans to conduct a rights issue totaling to Rp3tn this year. (Investor Daily) Bank Jatim (BJTM) to pay out dividends Rp43.64 per share BJTM will pay dividends amounting to Rp652.2bn or Rp43.64 per share, this is equivalent to 63.4% of BJTM s 2016 net income. The cum date for the regular market and the negotiation market will be 7 February while the cum date for the money market will be 10 February. The ex-dividend date for the regular market and negotiation market will be 8 February while the ex-date for the money market will be 13 February. BJTM will pay dividends on 2 March (Bisnis Indonesia) Page 6 of 11

7 Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) to change President Director in Mid March The government is still waiting for the Board of Commissioners to submit a new candidate to replace the current President Director, Asmawi Syam, who will soon complete his tenure. The replacement will be determined during BBRI s Extraordinary General Shareholder s Meeting in mid March. The Ministry of SOE plans to look for a candidate both internally and externally. (Investor daily) Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) prepares Rp1tn to acquire a securities company BBRI has set aside Rp1tn to acquire a securities company that will be able to support BBRI s banking business. Aside from acquiring a securities company, there is also a possibility that BBRI may set up its own securities company, however this will require a longer process. BBRI has also set aside Rp2-3tn to inject capital into its subsidiaries. (Bisnis Indonesia) Bekasi Fajar (BEST) to target business travelers. BEST opens Hotel Enso in Bekasi targeting the business segment in MM2100 area. The hotel will target 300 multinational companies surrounding the area. BEST has invested Rp150bn for land acquisition and will develop other commercial areas in MM2100 areas. (Investor daily) Puradelta Lestari (DMAS) allocates Rp900bn for capex Company allocates Rp900bn for capex from internal cashflow with around Rp200bn set aside for land acquisition. On industrial estate segment, DMAS booked 53ha of marketing sales last year. Total marketing sales reached Rp1.1tn, 35% lower compared to FY15 marketing sales. Meanwhile, DMAS also plans to launch two residential clusters on top of 5ha in 1H17 with price tag ranging from Rp bn per unit. Total investment cost amounted to Rp200bn. (Kontan) Trada Maritime (TRAM) to restructure debts with IFC, BTMU, and Bank Mandiri (BMRI) TRAM has reached an agreement with International Finance Corporation (IFC), Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, and BMRI Singapore to restructure debts totaling to USD44.9mn or equivalent to Rp600bn. Of the total loans restructured, USD10mn came from BMRI Singapore. Settlement of loans with BMRI will include extension of loan facility, selling of MV Samudera Bangsa, and cash settlement. (Investor Daily) Waskita Beton Precast (WSBP) s Jan 31st, 2017 extraordinary general meeting (EGM) results This EGM was attended by 66.4% shareholders who agreed to appoint Didit Oemar Prihadi as director. Didit Oemar Prihadi previously served as the president director of Waskita Karya Realty and head of EPC & realty business of Waskita Karya (WSKT). (Bisnis Indonesia) Page 7 of 11

8 Indices Currencies and ADRs Major Commodities Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%) Currency Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%) Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%) JCI 5, Rp/US$ 13, Oil spot (US$/bl) Dow Jones 19, US$/EUR Nickel spot (US$/mt) 10, Nikkei 19, YEN/US$ Gold spot (US$/oz) 1, SET 1, SGD/US$ Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 19, Hang Seng 23, CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 3, STI 3, ADR Stocks Soybean oil (US$/100gallons) S&P 500 2, TLK in Rp 9, Rubber forward (US /kg) Coal (US$/ton) Ishares indo Baltic Dry Index Property Valuation JCI Code Rec. Market Cap (Rp bn) Share price Target Price Discount to NAV RNAV per share (Rp) Premium (discount) to replacement cost Replacement cost per share (Rp) PE (x) ROE 17F 18F 17F 18F BSDE Buy 35,318 1,835 2,570-61% 4,673 19% 1, % 10.5% PWON Buy 27, % 1,207 35% % 25.5% SMRA Neutral 18,752 1,300 1,575-67% 3,933 91% % 17.2% CTRA Buy 20,019 1,320 1,600-57% 3,073 69% % 14.0% JRPT Buy 12, ,300-73% 3,242 26% % 18.7% ASRI Neutral 7, % 1,161 69% % 5.3% LPCK Buy 3,445 4,950 10,000-80% 24,683 5% 4, % 11.9% MDLN Buy 4, % 1,165 18% % 7.9% CTRS Buy 5,363 2,710 4,000-80% 13,390-33% 4, % 12.2% Simple Average -68% % 13.7% Industrial Estate Valuation JCI Code Rec. Market Cap (Rp bn) Share price Target Price Discount to NAV RNAV per share (Rp) Premium (discount) to replacement cost Replacement cost per share (Rp) PE (x) ROE 17F 18F 17F 18F DMAS Buy 10, % % % 11.8% BEST Buy 3, % % % 9.9% SSIA Buy 2, % 1,701-27% % 5.6% LPCK Buy 3,445 4,950 10,000-80% 24,683 5% 4, % 11.9% MDLN Buy 4, % 1,165 18% % 7.9% Simple Average -68% % 9.4% Page 8 of 11

9 Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit EPS Growth PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div.Yield Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) MANSEK universe 5,327 5,550 4,036, , , % 13.1% % 2.0% Banking 951,405 81,172 95, % 17.5% N.A. N.A % 2.0% BBCA Neutral 15,425 15,150 (1.8) 380,303 21,729 24, % 11.2% N.A. N.A % 1.3% BBNI Buy 5,950 6, ,960 12,995 15, % 17.9% N.A. N.A % 3.5% BBRI Buy 11,950 13, ,797 28,258 34, % 22.2% N.A. N.A % 2.4% BBTN Buy 1,890 2, ,015 2,843 3, % 18.6% N.A. N.A % 2.8% BDMN Neutral 4,130 3,575 (13.4) 39,584 4,060 4, % 13.2% N.A. N.A % 1.8% BJBR Sell 2,320 1,600 (31.0) 22,495 1,780 1, % 10.5% N.A. N.A % 3.2% BJTM Neutral (10.6) 9,174 1,107 1, % 12.2% N.A. N.A % 7.5% BNGA Buy 955 1, ,001 3,290 3, % 21.2% N.A. N.A % 0.0% BNLI Buy , ,434 N/M 75.7% N.A. N.A % 0.5% BTPN Neutral 2,650 2,635 (0.6) 15,477 1,730 1, % 10.5% N.A. N.A % 0.0% PNBN Buy 815 1, ,631 2,565 2, % 11.8% N.A. N.A % 0.0% Building Materials 120,261 6,308 7, % 11.9% % 1.7% INTP Neutral 15,300 14,400 (5.9) 56,323 3,252 3, % 10.4% % 1.8% SMCB Sell (11.1) 6, % 14.2% % 0.0% SMGR Neutral 9,025 8,600 (4.7) 53,532 3,207 3, % 8.4% % 1.8% ARNA Buy , % 51.9% % 2.4% Constructions 111,814 6,339 7, % 15.2% % 1.4% ADHI Neutral 2,070 2,020 (2.4) 7, % 35.2% % 1.4% PTPP Buy 3,600 4, ,320 1,323 1, % 22.7% % 1.2% WIKA Buy 2,520 3, ,580 1,239 1, % 11.9% % 1.1% WSKT Buy 2,560 3, ,255 1,842 2, % 10.2% % 1.2% WTON Buy 825 1, , % 13.8% % 1.4% WSBP Buy , % 7.8% % 1.6% TOTL Buy 785 1, , % 14.1% % 5.3% Toll road 30,773 1,805 1, % 4.6% % 1.8% JSMR Buy 4,240 5, ,773 1,805 1, % 4.6% % 1.8% Rice Mill 6, % 27.9% % 0.8% AISA U/R 1,950 U/R U/R 6, % 27.9% % 0.8% Consumer 1,106,958 37,839 41, % 10.8% % 1.1% ICBP Neutral 8,425 9, ,252 3,904 4, % 14.0% % 1.8% INDF Buy 7,925 11, ,597 4,221 4, % 11.5% % 3.2% MYOR Neutral 1,825 1,550 (15.1) 40,805 1,443 1, % 19.7% % 1.4% ULTJ U/R 4,440 U/R U/R 12, % 10.2% n/a 0.5% 0.6% UNVR Neutral 41,275 41, ,928 7,274 8, % 11.1% % -2.3% GGRM Buy 62,700 75, ,640 7,272 7, % 8.9% % 1.6% HMSP Neutral 3,860 3,850 (0.3) 448,988 12,996 14, % 9.7% % 2.8% WIIM U/R 440 U/R U/R 924 n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% Healthcare 86,425 3,779 4, % 11.9% % 2.5% KLBF U/R 1,485 U/R U/R 69,610 2,569 2, % 11.2% % 2.0% SIDO Buy , % 15.0% % 5.1% TSPC U/R 1,870 U/R U/R 8, % 12.4% % 3.8% Hospital 50, , % 21.7% % 0.7% MIKA Buy 2,520 3, , % 16.1% % 0.9% SILO Neutral 11,900 10,820 (9.1) 13, % 49.4% % 0.0% Retail 89,439 4,637 5, % 17.9% % 3.4% ACES Neutral , % 15.3% % 2.4% ERAA U/R 605 U/R U/R 1, % 25.2% n/a n/a 5.8% 6.9% LPPF Buy 14,775 19, ,112 2,355 2, % 17.0% % 4.9% MAPI Buy 5,400 6, , % 35.5% % 0.6% MPPA Sell 1, (26.2) 6, % 55.4% % 0.3% RALS Neutral 1,375 1,180 (14.2) 9, % 6.5% % 2.8% TELE U/R 890 U/R U/R 6, % 14.2% % 2.1% Automotive 329,487 18,303 19, % 6.0% % 2.5% Page 9 of 11

10 Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit EPS Growth PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div.Yield Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) ASII Neutral 8,050 8, ,893 18,054 18, % 4.5% % 2.5% IMAS U/R 1,300 U/R U/R 3, % 267.7% % 0.2% Heavy Equipment 85,954 5,799 5, % -0.3% % 2.1% HEXA* U/R 3,300 U/R U/R 2, % 0.0% % 4.0% UNTR Neutral 22,300 21,000 (5.8) 83,182 5,623 5, % -0.4% % 2.0% Plantation 45,316 3,099 3, % 14.0% % 2.4% AALI Buy 16,000 16, ,795 2,008 2, % 14.0% % 2.3% LSIP Buy 1,575 1, , % 7.5% % 2.9% SGRO U/R 2,000 U/R U/R 3, % 31.4% % 2.0% Property 138,369 11,535 12, % 9.3% % 0.8% APLN U/R 220 U/R U/R 4, % -12.6% % 2.9% ASRI Neutral , % -46.1% % 1.5% BSDE Buy 1,835 2, ,318 2,648 2, % -6.4% % 0.9% CTRA Buy 1,320 1, ,019 1,429 1, % 11.4% % -1.4% CTRS Buy 2,710 4, , % -3.1% % 2.2% JRPT Buy 875 1, ,031 1,074 1, % 9.4% % 0.9% LPCK Buy 4,950 10, , % -7.1% % 0.0% MDLN Buy , % 14.7% % 0.0% PWON Buy ,210 2,435 3, % 27.1% % 2.1% SMRA Neutral 1,300 1, , , % 148.5% % 0.0% Industrial Estate 17,141 2,814 1, % -41.9% % 3.6% DMAS Buy , , % 2.8% % 2.7% BEST Buy , % 20.4% % 0.5% SSIA Buy ,988 1, % -83.7% % 10.2% Poultry 74,126 5,544 6, % 18.8% % 2.3% CPIN U/R 3,150 U/R U/R 51,654 3,525 4, % 17.6% % 2.4% JPFA U/R 1,735 U/R U/R 19,797 1,688 2, % 22.2% % 2.2% MAIN U/R 1,195 U/R U/R 2, % 12.8% % 2.7% Coal 105,890 8,370 8, % 3.4% % 4.0% ADRO* Sell 1,750 1,200 (31.4) 55, % 2.9% % 2.5% HRUM* Sell 2,150 1,600 (25.6) 5, % 7.3% % 4.8% ITMG* Sell 15,175 12,250 (19.3) 17, % -9.3% % 7.3% PTBA Sell 11,700 9,500 (18.8) 26,963 2,256 2, % 12.4% % 4.7% Oil & Gas 69,816 5,529 5, % 5.9% % 4.1% PGAS* U/R 2,880 U/R U/R 69, % 5.9% % 4.1% Shipping 2, % N/A % 0.0% SOCI* U/R 300 U/R U/R 2, n/a 0.0% % 4.6 n/a 6.7 n/a n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% Metal 33, % N/M ### % 1.1% ANTM Neutral (38.3) 7, % -13.3% % -3.9% INCO* U/R 2,560 U/R U/R 25, % 125.0% % 2.6% Telco 451,743 23,840 27, % 17.6% % 3.8% EXCL Neutral 2,850 2,700 (15.8) 30, % 37.7% % 0.5% ISAT U/R 6,325 U/R U/R 34,370 1,871 2, % 43.5% % 3.3% TLKM Buy 3,940 4, ,957 21,439 24, % 14.9% % 4.1% Tower 58,895 4,471 5, % 16.1% % 0.0% TBIG Neutral 4,940 6, ,695 1,558 1, % 25.6% % 0.0% TOWR Buy 3,450 5, ,200 2,913 3, % 11.0% % 0.0% Media 66,743 3,681 4, % 14.8% % 3.0% SCMA Buy 2,900 3, ,403 1,870 2, % 13.6% % 3.1% MNCN Buy 1,705 2, ,341 1,812 2, % 16.0% % 3.0% Textile 4, % N/A % 0.0% SRIL* U/R 234 U/R U/R 4, n/a 33.3% % 4.5 n/a 5.6 n/a 0.8 n/a 5.6% 0.0% Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable Page 10 of 11

11 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Sales) RESEARCH Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Adrian Joezer Consumer, Strategy adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal, Metal, Automotive ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Bob Setiadi Construction, Toll Road bob.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Francis Lim Quant, Health Care, Hospital francis.lim@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Mining, Plantation yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Laura Taslim Retail laura.taslim@mandirisek.co.id Priscilla Thany Banking priscilla.thany@mandirisek.co.id Ferdy Wan Building Material, Industrial Est., Media ferdy.wan@mandirisek.co.id Lakshmi Rowter Research Assistant lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id Gerry Harlan Research Assistant gerry.harlan@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Economist wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Aziza Nabila Amani Research Assistant aziza.amani@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Institutional Sales aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id Kevin Halim Institutional Sales kevin.halim@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id A. A. Damargumilang Pondok Indah Office Tower damar.gumilang@mandirisek.co.id Herianto Pondok Indah Prioritas herianto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

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