INVESTOR DIGEST HIGHLIGHT ECONOMY. Equity Research 8 Jul Equity Research 8 Jul 2014

Transcription

1 INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research 8 Jul 2014 Economic Data Latest 2014F BI Rate, eop Inflation (YoY %) US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 11,713 11,825 HIGHLIGHT Jun14 FX reserve remains stable amid rupiah depreciation Market Recap July 7th 2014; JCI: 4, (+1.7%); USD/IDR: 11,713; Total Value: Rp7.95tn Stock Market Data (7 Jul 2014) JCI Index 4, % Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 5,879.6 Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 4,948.5 Market Data Summary* 2014F 2015F EBITDA growth EPS growth EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Div. Yield Earnings Yield Net Gearing ROE * Aggregate of 74 companies in MS research universe, representing 66.0% of JCI s market capitalization ECONOMY Jun14 FX reserve remains stable amid rupiah depreciation FX reserve remains stable. It slightly increased to US$107.7bn in Jun14 from US$107.0bn in the previous month amid weakening rupiah. For information, the rupiah depreciated 1.54% mom to Rp11,855 in Jun14. We see two main reasons behind the stable FX reserve. First, BI s hefty USD absorption through FX swap and FX term deposit instruments, which offset its FX intervention activity. Based on our observation, the total outstanding of both of instruments increased to US$11.4bn from US$10.1bn in the corresponding period, with FX absorption of US$3bn happening in the last day of Jun14. Second, based on BI s press release, part of the FX reserve increase was due to government s oil and gas export proceeds that was above its foreign debt payment. External risk remains manageable. At this juncture, Jun14 FX reserve position is equivalent with 6.2 months of import payment or 6.0 months of import and government s external debt, above the international standard of 3 months of import payment. Moreover, it remains two times larger than the total short term external debt. A decline in real FX reserve: an indication of higher US$ demand. The real FX reserve (taking out FX swap and FX term deposit) stands at US$96.3bn, slightly lower than May14 position of US$96.9bn. We believe that the decline of real FX reserve could indicate the high demand of US$ owing to imports, income repatriation and debt servicing. Aldian Taloputra ( ) Leo Rinaldy( ) aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Page 1 of 5

2 MARKET Market Recap July 7th 2014; JCI: 4, (+1.7%); USD/IDR: 11,713; Total Value: Rp7.95tn Indo market went up 1.7% to close at 4,989 level (close to the psychological level of 5,000) over optimism that the market-friendly candidate, Joko Widodo, will win the upcoming presidential election next Wednesday. All sectors were in the green and investors pursue big cap stocks like banks: BMRI (+2.58%), BBRI (+3.43%), BBNI (+2%) and BBCA (+1.58%); cement: INTP (+6.95%) and SMGR (+5.29%); TLKM (+2.97%); ASII (+2%) and UNVR (+1.98%). In addition, construction and property names were today s winners as well: ADHI (+7.9%), WIKA (+4.7%), PTPP (+7.49%) and WSKT (+6.47%), LPKR (+4.95%), BKSL (+19%), ASRI (+4.8%), BSDE (+2.25%) and SMRA (+4.27%). Regular market transaction was recorded at Rp6.6tn (USD563.48mn) and foreign investors posted a net buy of Rp760.63bn (USD64.94mn). The yield of 10-year government decreased to 8.094% (-0.6%) and Rupiah appreciated by 1.35% to 11,713. Sales Team FROM THE PRESS Surya Semesta recorded 60% marketing sales decline in 1H14 As of June 2014, SSIA was able to sell 15.5ha of industrial land which provided USD19.9mn marketing sales to the company. The marketing sales figure is 24% of SSIA s FY14 target of 65ha and is 60% lower compared to 1H13. On a separate note, SSIA s construction arm NRCA, has booked Rp1.8tn of new contracts as of June which is c. 50% of its target for The figure is still lower compared to 1H13 of Rp3.3tn as NRCA only got contracts from high rise constructions for this year. (Kontan) ADRO declares force majeure on its power plant project Adaro Energy (ADRO) s subsidiary, Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI), has declared force majeure on the construction of its 2x1000MW coal-fired power plant in Central Java (Central Java Power Plant/CJPP) due to land acquisition problem. The consortium has secured more than 85% of land needed for the project but may need government support to fasten the process due to the instability of the situation at the site. BPI is a joint venture company between J-Power, Adaro Power, and Itochu Corporation. (Bisnis) Another production delay in Cepu expected to impact 2014 target and drop 2015 oil lifting According to the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, the delay resulted in a maximum oil lifting of 870k bpd in 2015 which is much lower than previous 900k-920k bpd about to be proposed for the RAPBN The acting chief of SKK Migas said that Nov14 production ramp-up will be delayed again to Mar15 or Apr15. This is the second delay from Aug14 target. Production obstacles include construction equipment licensing and human capital. This development may also potentially affect 2014 APBN-P oil lifting target of 818k bpd (Bisnis Indonesia) Page 2 of 5

3 Indices Currencies and ADRs Major Commodities Chg Currency Chg JCI 4, Rp/US$ 11, Oil spot (US$/bl) Dow Jones 17, EUR/US$ Nickel spot (US$/mt) 19, Nikkei 15, YEN/US$ Gold spot (US$/oz) 1, SET 1, SGD/US$ Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 22, Hang Seng 23, CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 2, STI 3, ADR Stocks Soybean oil (US$/100gallons) S&P 500 1, TLK in Rp 12, Rubber forward (US /kg) IIT in Rp 3, Coal (US$/ton)* Ishares indo Coal (US$/ton) * weekly price Baltic Dry Index Property Valuation JCI Code Rec. Market Cap (Rp bn) Share price Target Price Discount to NAV RNAV per share (Rp) Premium (discount) to replacement cost Replacement cost per share (Rp) P/E 14F P/E 15F ROE 14F ROE 15F BSDE Buy 27, ,590 2,000-60% 4,002 3% 1, % 20.0% PWON Buy 18, % % % 35.3% SMRA Buy 17, ,220 1,550-61% 3,106 79% % 20.7% CTRA Neutral 16, , % 1,647 40% % 19.0% JRPT Buy 13, ,130-66% 2,817 77% % 26.4% ASRI Neutral 8, % 1,538 17% % 23.2% APLN Buy 6, % % % 15.4% LPCK Buy 5, ,475 9,850-61% 19,300 59% 4, % 28.6% MDLN Neutral 5, % 1,201-21% % 13.4% CTRS Buy 4, ,220 4,000-73% 8,077-20% 2, % 23.4% BKSL Neutral 3, % 1,010-43% % 10.8% Simple average -60% % 20.5% Plantation Valuation Ticker Rec. Market Cap (Rp bn) Share price Target Price planted (US$) EV/ha PER EV/EBITDA ROE Mature (US$) FY14F FY15F FY14F FY15F FY14F FY15F AALI Buy 43,739 27,775 33,200 16,681 19, % 27.3% BWPT Buy 5,504 1,235 1,750 11,669 18, % 22.5% LSIP Buy 15,386 2,255 3,200 9,994 12, % 18.0% SGRO Buy 4,234 2,240 3,000 6,462 9, % 14.4% Weighted average 12,876 16, % 22.5% SIMP* Not Rated 15, ,208 9, % 7.0% SSMS* Not Rated 11,954 1,255 29,945 31, % 33.8% *) Consensus numbers Page 3 of 5

4 Equity Valuation Outstanding Shares Price Mkt Cap Net Profit EPS Growth PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div.Yield JCI Code Rating (Mn) Price (Rp) Target (Rp Bn) Mandiri Universe 3,093, , , % 19.1% % 2.5% Banking 740,965 59,574 72, % 22.1% N.A. N.A % 2.2% BCA BBCA Neutral 24,655 11,275 10, ,985 15,729 18, % 19.0% N.A. N.A % 1.5% BNI BBNI Neutral 18,649 4,845 4,750 90,353 9,323 11, % 19.5% N.A. N.A % 2.6% BRI BBRI Buy 24,660 10,550 12, ,260 22,266 27, % 25.3% N.A. N.A % 2.5% BTN BBTN Buy 8,836 1,080 1,500 11,185 1,601 1, % 21.2% N.A. N.A % 4.3% Danamon BDMN Neutral 9,585 4,290 4,200 41,118 3,936 4, % 26.7% N.A. N.A % 2.9% Bank BJB BJBR Sell 9, ,387 1,086 1, % 10.1% N.A. N.A % 5.8% Bank Jatim BJTM Neutral 14, , , % 21.5% N.A. N.A % 9.9% BTPN BTPN Buy 5,840 4,270 5,000 24,938 2,303 2, % 25.5% N.A. N.A % 0.0% Panin PNBN Buy 24, ,000 20,595 2,366 2, % 17.8% N.A. N.A % 2.3% Infrastructure 292,896 16,581 18, % 14.1% % 2.2% Holcim SMCB Neutral 7,663 2,710 2,700 20,769 1,288 1, % 12.9% % 1.9% Indocement INTP Buy 3,681 25,000 24,000 92,031 5,582 6, % 11.7% % 1.9% Semen Indonesia SMGR Buy 5,932 15,925 16,600 94,459 5,900 6, % 12.9% % 3.1% Adhi Karya ADHI Buy 1,801 3,140 2,500 5, % 40.9% % 2.0% Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP Buy 4,842 2,010 2,100 9, % 20.2% % 1.6% Wijaya Karya WIKA Buy 6,106 2,430 2,300 14, % 18.2% % 1.4% Waskita Karya WSKT Neutral 9, , % 34.8% % 1.7% Wijaya Karya Beton WTON Buy 8, , % 25.5% % 1.5% Jasa Marga JSMR Neutral 6,800 6,075 6,200 41,310 1,566 1, % 10.5% % 1.5% Consumer 494,515 19,255 22, % 18.3% % 2.3% Tiga Pilar AISA Buy 3,000 2,420 3,000 7, % 31.5% % 0.0% Gudang Garam GGRM Buy 1,924 53,400 68, ,746 5,571 6, % 15.0% % 2.1% Indofood CBP ICBP Neutral 5,831 10,225 10,700 59,622 2,292 2, % 11.4% % 1.9% Indofood INDF Buy 8,780 6,900 8,200 60,582 4,048 5, % 29.1% % 3.3% Mayora MYOR Neutral ,550 27,200 26, % 16.4% % 0.9% Unilever UNVR Buy 7,630 30,900 34, ,767 5,907 6, % 16.9% % 2.5% Wismilak WIIM Neutral 2, , % -30.6% % 2.3% Dyandra DYAN Buy 4, % 41.8% % 0.0% Healthcare 91,228 2,748 3, % 22.9% % 1.2% Kalbe Farma KLBF Buy 46,875 1,695 1,880 79,453 2,287 2, % 24.3% % 1.2% Sido Muncul SIDO Neutral 15, , % 15.7% % 1.6% Transportation 2, % 26.2% % 1.8% Express Transindo TAXI Buy 2,146 1,205 1,600 2, % 26.2% % 1.8% Retail 82,397 3,829 4, % 23.8% % 1.9% Ace Hardware Indonesia *) ACES U/R 17, U/R 14, % 18.2% % 0.9% Erajaya *) ERAA U/R 2,900 1,220 U/R 3, % 12.5% % 3.9% Matahari Department Store *) LPPF U/R 2,918 14,500 U/R 42,310 1,611 2, % 28.7% % 1.9% Mitra Adiperkasa *) MAPI U/R 1,660 4,900 U/R 8, % 36.1% % 0.8% Ramayana *) RALS U/R 7,096 1,130 U/R 8, % 14.0% % 3.2% Supra Boga *) RANC U/R 1, U/R % 19.4% % 1.3% Tiphone Mobile Indonesia *) TELE U/R 5, U/R 4, % 22.3% n/a n/a 2.5% 2.8% Automotive 317,176 21,719 24, % 14.1% % 3.3% Astra International *) ASII U/R 40,484 7,500 U/R 303,627 20,862 23, % 13.6% % 3.4% IMAS *) IMAS U/R 2,765 4,900 U/R 13, , % 26.5% % 1.3% Heavy Equipment 91,263 6,505 6, % 4.3% % 2.7% Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA Buy 840 3,625 4,250 3, % 26.4% % 2.8% United Tractors UNTR Neutral 3,730 23,650 23,000 88,218 6,214 6, % 2.2% % 2.7% Plantation 68,862 4,608 5, % 29.2% % 3.1% Astra Agro Lestari AALI Buy 1,575 27,775 33,200 43,739 2,848 3, % 22.4% % 3.5% BW Plantation BWPT Buy 4,457 1,235 1,750 5, % 77.6% % 1.3% London Sumatera Plantations LSIP Buy 6,823 2,255 3,200 15,386 1,101 1, % 28.6% % 2.9% Sampoerna Agro SGRO Buy 1,890 2,240 3,000 4, % 40.4% % 2.7% Property 127,049 12,507 14, % 14.5% % 1.6% Agung Podomoro Land APLN Buy 20, , , % 16.6% % 3.0% Alam Sutera Realty ASRI Neutral 17, ,932 1,354 1, % 17.8% % 5.2% Sentul City BKSL Neutral 31, , % 35.7% % 0.0% Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE Buy 17,497 1,590 2,000 27,820 2,155 2, % 17.7% % 1.9% Ciputra Development CTRA Neutral 15,166 1, ,607 1,209 1, % 25.7% % 1.5% Ciputra Surya CTRS Buy 1,979 2,220 4,000 4, % 30.3% % 2.8% Jaya Real Property JRPT Buy 13, ,130 13, % 30.4% % 0.8% Lippo Cikarang LPCK Buy 696 7,475 9,850 5, % 8.7% % 0.0% Modernland MDLN Neutral 12, ,251 1, % -46.3% % 0.0% Pakuwon Jati PWON Buy 48, ,108 1,495 2, % 41.4% % 1.9% Summarecon Agung SMRA Buy 14,425 1,220 1,550 17,598 1,134 1, % 24.2% % 0.0% Poultry 81,981 3,127 3, % 26.9% % 1.1% Charoen Pokphand CPIN Neutral 16,423 3,895 4,100 63,967 2,429 3, % 26.6% % 1.1% Japfa Comfeed JPFA Sell 10,499 1,250 1,000 13, % 25.2% % 1.1% Malindo Feedmill MAIN Neutral 1,695 2,885 3,000 4, % 33.0% % 1.0% Energy 254,616 15,211 18, % 23.8% % 3.8% Adaro ADRO Buy 31,986 1,195 1,450 38,223 3,253 3, % 5.3% % 3.5% Bumi *) BUMI U/R 20, U/R 3,615 (1,879) (91) 70.0% N/M -1.7 n/a % 6.3% Harum Energy HRUM Neutral 2,699 2,300 2,400 6, % 8.6% % 4.7% Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG Neutral 1,130 27,250 25,750 30,790 2,057 2, % 7.9% % 5.8% Bukit Asam PTBA Neutral 2,304 11,200 9,700 25,810 1,717 2, % 25.8% % 4.2% Energi Mega Persada *) ENRG U/R 44, U/R 4, % 0.0% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% Medco *) MEDC U/R 3,332 3,525 U/R 11, % 300.0% % 0.3% PGN PGAS Buy 24,240 5,525 6, ,934 9,319 9, % 8.6% % 3.6% Metal 54,934 1,584 2,680 N/M 60.8% % 2.0% Antam *) ANTM U/R 9,538 1,150 U/R 10, % 200.6% % 1.1% Bumi Resources Minerals *) BRMS U/R 25, U/R 6, % 0.0% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% PT Inco *) INCO U/R 9,936 3,735 U/R 37,112 1,747 2, % 40.0% % 2.7% Telecommunication 392,707 19,244 22, % 15.8% % 3.0% EXCEL *) EXCL U/R 8,534 5,300 U/R 45, , % 99.0% % 1.4% Indosat *) ISAT U/R 5,434 3,655 U/R 19, ,092 N/M 90.4% % 2.3% Tower Bersama TBIG Buy 4,657 7,775 7,200 37,293 1,474 1, % 32.0% % 0.0% Sarana Menara TOWR Neutral 10,203 3,900 3,750 39,791 1,110 1, % 22.1% % 0.0% Telkom TLKM Buy 96,010 2,600 2, ,529 15,343 16, % 7.1% % 4.3% Note : - *) means Company Data is using Bloomberg Data - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A. means Not Applicable Page 4 of 5

5 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Handoko Wijoyo Construction, Toll Road handoko.wijoyo@mandirisek.co.id Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Research Assistant aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Ridwan Pranata Head Retail Equities ridwan.pranata@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Jakarta Branch boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading Branch yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua Branch hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Umar Abdullah Pondok Indah Branch umar.abdullah@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas ari Bandung Branch indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak Branch yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Branch ruwie@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutral (-10% to10%) and Sell (-10% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.