Sponsored by Coalition for Smart Transit

Transcription

1 Survey of Likely Voters in RTD District Sponsored by Coalition for Smart Transit March 23-27, 2010 Data & Findings 1

2 Methodology A phone survey of 400 likely voters (voted in 2006 AND 2008 general elections, or registered since then) in the RTD district, conducted March 23-27, Survey builds on RTD/FasTracks surveys conducted November 2007, January 2009, April 2009 Sample was distributed to reflect county-by-county percentages of RTD district population. Demographics of the survey sample population were balanced to reflect gender, and party registration in each RTD county. Average length of interview: 23 minutes. Results have ±4.9% margin of error at a 95% confidence level 2

3 Denver Metro right direction/wrong track How do you feel things are going in the Denver metro area these days? 100% 50% 0% Oct % 58% 54% 50% 25% 32% 34% 17% 15% 17% 14% 16% Feb- 08 Jun- 08 Oct- 08 Feb- 09 Jun- 09 Oct- 09 Feb- 10 Jun- 10 Don't know Wrong Track Right Direction 3

4 In November 2007 FasTracks survey, transportation, traffic, transit and roads were cited as the #1 local issue by 34% of survey respondents. What do you believe to be the most important issue facing the Denver Metro Area today? [OPEN END] RTD SURVEY Transportation/affordable transportation 14% Too much growth/development 10% Traffic congestion 9% Immigration 8% Education/schools 7% More mass transit/light rail 6% Housing/real estate issues 5% Improve roads/highways 5% 4

5 In 2010, economy and jobs are identified by 41% of respondents as the top issues facing the Denver metro area. Transportation issues have dropped as priorities. Thinking about the issues facing the Denver metropolitan area in your opinion what is the number one priority you would want local officials to focus on in the next couple years? [OPEN END] 3/2010 survey Unemployment/lack of jobs 32% Public Transportation 6% Economic conditions 9% Education-general 4% Balancing budget 4% Healthcare access/affordability 4% Education funding 3% Crime/public safety 3% Transportation congestion 3% Lower taxes 3% 5

6 CO Legislature CDOT RTD RTD 1-09 RTD 4-09 RTD 3-10 FasTracks SCFD Tauer Bennet McInnis Hickenlooper Independence Inst. Jon Caldara 34% 15% 16% 21% 22% 22% 21% 5% 49% 6% 15% 27% 21% 24% 18% 12% 18% 15% 19% 42% 71% 72% 69% 66% 68% 50% 39% 74% 0% 50% 100% Unfavorable Favorable 6

7 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 7

8 KEY FINDINGS Just under ½ of respondents say they expect the local economy to get better in the next year. 35% say it will stay about the same, and 18% say the economy will get weaker. In the long-term, 56% say the economy will get a little better, while 26% say it will improve dramatically. ½ of respondents say it is difficult keeping up with personal bills, and ½ say it is not difficult. 8

9 In the long-term, 56% of respondents say the economy will improve a little. 26% expect it will improve significantly. Economy one-year from now Longer-term economic outlook Much stronger, 8% Don't Know, 2% Much weaker, 7% Somewhat weaker, 11% Improve significant ly, 26% Don't Know, 4% Will get worse, 14% Somewhat stronger, 38% About same, 35% Improve a little, 56% 9

10 The survey respondents are split on whether it is difficult or not to keep up with their personal bills. How difficult is it for you to keep up with your personal household bills these days? Very difficult Somewhat difficult 14% 35% 49% difficult Not that difficult Not difficult at all 26% 24% 50% not difficult Don't Know 1% 0% 80% Mar-10 10

11 Perception of the local tax burden has not shifted significantly from 2009 survey. Do you feel your local taxes (property tax, sales tax, but NOT federal or state income tax) are very high, high, about right, or low? Very high High About right Low Don't Know 8% 6% 1% 2% 17% 20% 31% 30% 43% 43% 0% 80% Apr-09 Mar-10 11

12 RTD & FASTRACKS GENERAL AWARENESS 12

13 100% Familiarity with FasTracks (unaided no add l information provided) has declined slightly compared to 2009 survey 61% say they are familiar with FasTracks. How familiar are you with FasTracks? 50% 53% 45% 64% 74% 61% 35% 26% 37% 19% 0% 2% 1% 2% Oct- 07 Feb- 08 Jun- 08 Oct- 08 Feb- 09 Jun- 09 Oct- 09 Feb- 10 Jun- 10 Don't know Unfamiliar Familiar 13

14 Positive vs. negative impression of FasTracks is 77% positive - 21% negative in 2010 survey. Based on what you know, what is your impression of FasTracks? 100% 68% 77% 73% 77% 50% 0% 19% 13% 19% 25% 21% 5% 2% 2% Oct- 07 Feb- 08 Jun- 08 Oct- 08 Feb- 09 Jun- 09 Oct- 09 Feb- 10 Jun- 10 Don't know Negative Positive 14

15 Positive perceptions of FasTracks are tied to addressing traffic and the importance of transit. Negative perceptions are tied to high costs and poor management. What is the primary reason your impression of FasTracks is positive/negative? Top POSITIVE answers (n=308) 1. I use public transportation/we need it 29% 2. It will reduce traffic 25% 3. It s a good plan/i support public transit 15% 4. Create jobs/economic return 11% 5. Convenience 5% Top NEGATIVE answers (n=84) 1. The costs/expensive 45% 2. Poor mgmnt/taking too long to complete 21% 3. Lack of use 14% 4. No access to it in my area 5% 5. Taking people s land away 5% 15

16 100% 78% of 2010 survey respondents say approving FasTracks was a good idea. FasTracks Survey March 2010 Looking back with the benefit of hindsight do you believe approval of FasTracks in that 2004 election was a good decision or a bad decision? 79% 83% 77% 78% 50% 0% 12% 9% 7% 11% 19% 18% 5% 4% Oct- 07 Feb- 08 Jun- 08 Oct- 08 Feb- 09 Jun- 09 Oct- 09 Feb- 10 Jun- 10 Don't Know Bad Decision Good Decision 16

17 RTD & FASTRACKS BUDGET ISSUE AWARENESS & CONFIDENCE 17

18 KEY FINDINGS Familiarity with RTD budget issues remains moderate, at best. Confidence in RTD to implement FasTracks is up to 62% from 59% in 2009, but has declined overall going back to initial October 2007 survey. 72% of respondents in 2010 survey say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned about rising FasTracks costs. 18

19 1/3 of respondents still give RTD excellent or good marks on implementation, but the intensity is lower. Based on what you currently know, how good of a job has RTD done implementing the FasTracks plan that was approved by voters? Excellent Good Fair Poor Very Poor Don't Know 6% 3% 28% 31% 36% 29% 12% 16% 9% 10% 10% 11% 34% excellent/good 57% fair/poor 0% 100% Apr-09 Mar-10 19

20 100% FasTracks Survey March 2010 Confidence in RTD to implement FasTracks is up from 59% in 2009 survey to 62%, but has declined overall going back to initial October 2007 survey (75%). How much confidence do you have in RTD to complete the FasTracks plan that voters approved? 75% 68% 59% 62% 50% 18% 28% 38% 33% 0% Oct- 07 8% 4% 3% 5% Feb- 08 Jun- 08 Oct- 08 Feb- 09 Jun- 09 Oct- 09 Feb- 10 Jun- 10 Don't Know No confidence Confidence 20

21 1% 2% 4% 22% 17% 14% 14% 20% 11% 7% 7% 12% FasTracks Survey March % of respondents in 2010 survey say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned about rising FasTracks costs. How concerned are you personally about the issue of rising costs of building FasTracks? Very concerned Somewhat Concerned Not very concerned Not concerned at all Don't Know 36% 39% 36% 36% 38% 41% 42% 0% 60% Oct-07 Jan-09 Apr-09 Mar-10 21

22 51% of 2010 respondents attribute FasTracks budget challenges solely to economic conditions. 26% say it is due to RTD management and decision-making. Would you say that the budget challenges facing the implementation of FasTracks are mostly the result of mismanagement and poor decision making by RTD, or are they mostly the result of economic conditions that are outside RTD s control? RTD management Economic conditions Both Neither DK/NA 26% 29% 14% 17% 2% 1% 8% 7% 51% 47% 0% 60% Apr-09 Mar-10 22

23 Trust in RTD management to be honest and open has not changed significantly from 2009: 59% say they trust RTD a great deal or somewhat to be honest about FasTracks. How much do you trust RTD s management to be honest and open about FasTracks? A great deal Somewhat Not that much Not at all DK/NA 9% 9% 20% 20% 15% 14% 6% 7% 50% 51% 0% 60% Apr-09 Mar-10 23

24 In a forced-choice question that poses two options on how to address FasTracks, respondents come down evenly on whether to double taxes to finish by 2017, or use existing revenues and wait to complete until after Statement A Some people say we should double the sales tax from four-pennies-onten dollars to a total of eight pennieson-ten-dollars to fill the budget gap and complete FasTracks on time in Statement B Some people say we should pay for FasTracks with the funding already approved by voters, even if the full system won t be finished until after % agree somewhat 21% agree somewhat 24% agree strongly 23% agree strongly

25 ADDITIONAL SALES TAX FUNDING: BALLOT TEST I 25

26 BALLOT TEST I If the election were held today, would you vote for or vote against a sales tax increase for FasTracks? For: 50% Against: 48% Don t Know: 3% Boulder Support: 54% Oppose: 42% Denver Support: 56% Oppose: 41% Jeffco Support: 48% Oppose: 48% FasTracks Survey March 2010 Broomfield Support: 30% Oppose: 50% Arapahoe Support: 54% Oppose: 45% Douglas Support: 43% Oppose: 57% Adams Support: 40% Oppose: 60%

27 DEMOGRAPHICS ON SUPPORT/OPPOSE FASTRACKS TAX INCREASE Total 51% 43% 6% Adams 40% 56% 4% Arapahoe 55% 38% 7% Boulder 54% 40% 6% Broomfield 40% 40% 20% Denver 61% 33% 6% DougCo 46% 54% Jeffco 46% 49% 5% 65+yrs 48% 43% 9% 55-64yrs 50% 48% 2% 35-54yrs 50% 46% 4% >35 yrs 68% 28% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vote For Vote Against DK/NA

28 DEMOGRAPHICS ON SUPPORT/OPPOSE FASTRACKS TAX INCREASE TOTAL 51% 43% 6% Independent 53% 42% 5% Democrat 65% 29% 6% Republican 31% 63% 6% Female 51% 41% 7% Male 51% 45% 4% RTD Unfav 25% 73% 2% RTD Favorable 61% 32% 7% $150K< 52% 48% $76-150K 58% 38% 4% $36-75K 48% 50% 3% <$35K 56% 37% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vote For Vote Against DK/NA

29 DEMOGRAPHICS ON SUPPORT/OPPOSE FASTRACKS TAX INCREASE Total 51% 43% 6% Wrong Track 34% 55% 12% Right Direction 64% 34% 2% Economy stronger 1 yr 66% 27% 7% Economy weaker 1 yr 31% 68% 1% Economy same 1 yr 41% 52% 6% Not difficult HH bills 56% 39% 6% Difficult HH bills 49% 46% 5% Local taxes high 36% 59% 5% Local taxes low 75% 19% 6% Local taxes about right 63% 30% 6% Economy & jobs #1 issue 52% 44% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vote For Vote Against DK/NA

30 Undecided respondents in 2010 survey tilt much more towards remain undecided compared to undecideds in 2009 survey. Although you are currently undecided if you had to make a decision right now would you say you would lean toward supporting or opposing an increase in taxes to complete the FasTracks system? Leaning For Leaning Against Remain Undecided 17% 17% 43% 39% 40% 43% 0% 80% Apr-09 Mar-10 30

31 SUMMARY The Good News FasTracks still held in high regard and voters still want a regional system Positive vs. negative impression of FasTracks is 77% positive - 21% negative. 78% of 2010 survey respondents say approving FasTracks was a good idea. The Bad News Traffic, transit and transportation continue to give way to economy and jobs as the most pressing concerns 40% of respondents say RTD is partially or fully responsible for FasTracks budget challenges Compared to other public services and funding needs, completing FasTracks is not a high-intensity priority at this time 31

32 Survey of Likely Voters in RTD District Sponsored by Coalition for Smart Transit March 23-27, 2010 Data & Findings 32