The Political Landscape Approaching the 2018 Election

Transcription

1 The Political Landscape Approaching the 2018 Election October 17, 2018 Dave Metz, Partner February 6,

2 The structure of American society has changed markedly over five decades % Americans of Color 38% 4.9% Foreign-Born 14% 75% White/No College 39% 41% 22% 8.5% Living w/parents Kids out of Wedlock Women in the Workforce 32% 40.3 % 57% 27% Top 1% Share of Wealth 42% Source: Census, Pew, CDC ChildTrends, US Dept. of Labor, T. Pikety As reported by Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas 1

3 80% of Americans see the country as mainly divided while just 20% see it mainly united. 2

4 Four decades after Watergate, trust in government is near a record low. Proportion Believing Federal Government Can be Trusted to Do What is Right All or Most of the Time December 2017 Pew Research Center 3

5 But how divided are we, really? 2016 Vote for President Mark Newman, Department of Physics and Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan Updated: December 2,

6 In California, voters are becoming modestly more optimistic. Would you say that things in the State of California are generally headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Mixed/DK/NA % 42% 7% % 47% 18% % 40% 11% % 46% 10% % 43% 13% % 48% 10% % 58% 14% % 66% 17% % 82% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5

7 Voters have an even more positive feeling about how things are going at the local level. Generally speaking, would you say that things in are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track DK/NA Your City or town 59% 33% 8% Your region of the state 50% 41% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6

8 Housing, homelessness, and the cost of healthcare are voters top concerns. Please tell me whether you think each is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in your area. The cost of housing Ext. Ser. Very Ser. Smwt. Ser. Not Too Ser./DK/NA 33% 38% 20% 9% Ext./Very Ser. Prob. 71% Homelessness 29% 43% 19% 9% 71% The cost of healthcare 30% 39% 21% 10% 69% The cost of living 30% 38% 22% 9% 68% Drug and substance abuse 24% 41% 22% 13% 65% Traffic congestion 26% 36% 19% 19% 62% The amount you pay in taxes 25% 27% 25% 23% 51% The quality of public education 22% 29% 25% 23% 51% Q3. Split Sample 7

9 Just 11% of Californians are very confident that their children or grandchildren will be able to afford to live in the same community they themselves do now. QM8. 8

10 In a strong contrast to a few years ago, unemployment ranks dead last. Crime Ext. Ser. Very Ser. Smwt. Ser. Not Too Ser./DK/NA 15% 26% 36% 23% Ext./Very Ser. Prob. 41% Low wages 12% 25% 35% 28% 37% ^The number of undocumented immigrants in California 16% 20% 27% 38% 35% Over-population 14% 21% 26% 40% 35% Tension between different ethnic and racial groups 11% 24% 32% 33% 35% A lack of jobs 8% 26% 33% 33% 34% Unemployment 9% 21% 36% 34% 30% Q3. I'd like to read you some issues facing California that some people have said are problems. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in your area. ^Not Part of Split Sample 9

11 Impressions of the Governor and Legislature remain net positive. Governor Jerry Brown April 2017 January/February 2015 February 2014 December 2012 April 2012 January 2012 November 2011 Very Fav. Smwt. Fav. Smwt. Unfav. Very Unfav. NHO HO/DK 34% 34% 28% 25% 18% 19% 24% 23% 30% 31% 31% 30% 33% 32% 10% 12% 17% 17% 14% 12% 15% 23% 18% 19% 22% 22% 20% 22% 7% 4% 5% 9% 12% 11% 8% The California State Legislature April 2017 January/February 2015 February 2014 December 2012 April 2012 January 2012 November 2011 June % 8% 3% 5% 3% 20% 21% 19% 20% 25% 40% 35% 23% 24% 24% 23% 24% 11% 19% 19% 24% 22% 19% 26% 30% 27% 28% 34% 38% 16% 8% 10% 11% 22% 21% 17% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q1 Tracking. 10

12 Of course, voters have very little idea of who actually represents them. Can you tell me the name of the person who represents your area in the California State Senate? Don't know 67% Name offered 33% Only 7% of California voters are able to correctly name their state senator. 11

13 There is a powerful incentive for Democrats in California to position themselves as standing up to Trump. Difference Trump Clinton California 32% (4,483,810) 62% (8,753,788) Clinton +30% Rest of the U.S. 50.7% (58,369,538) 49.3% (56,761,628) Trump +1.4% Alameda County 15% 79% Clinton +64% Los Angeles County 23% 72% Clinton +49% 12

14 The enthusiasm gap is minimal. Group % Republicans 67% Democrats 63% Independents 68% Whites 69% Latinos 53% All Voters of Color 60% Non-College 61% College-Educated 72% Under age 50 62% Age % Age % Men 64% Women 68% In November, there will be a state of California election for Governor, U.S. Senator, Congress, state legislature and ballot measures. How interested are you in the November election: please use a scale from zero to one hundred, where zero means you are not at all interested and 100 means you are extremely interested? 13

15 The California Ballot 14

16 of voters statewide think early childhood education prepares children for school. of voters statewide think there is a need for funding for early childhood education. of parents of children under 5 say the state should be doing more to provide opportunities for children to attend preschool. 15

17 Locally, voters feel a strong sense of collective responsibility for helping kids. All Solano County residents have a shared responsibility in helping local children grow up healthy and ready to learn. Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree 31% 50% Total Agree 81% Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree 9% 8% Total Disagree 18% DK/NA 1% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 2014 Solano County Voter Survey 16

18 Only one-quarter believe children are well-prepared for kindergarten. How prepared do you think San Mateo County s children are for learning when they enter kindergarten: are they Extremely prepared Very prepared 8% 17% Extremely/Very Prepared 24% Somewhat prepared 51% Not very prepared, or Not at all prepared 2% 7% Not Very/Not At All Prepared 9% Don't know/na 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2016 San Mateo County Survey 17

19 Youth services rank in a top tier of funding needs. I am going to read a list of public services in San Joaquin County. Please tell me if you think there is a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for that service. Great Need Some Need A Little Need No Real Need DK/NA *Road maintenance and repair *Public safety Programs that provide health, education, and safety for youth Pre-school and early childhood education 57% 55% 49% 46% 29% 25% 27% 31% 8% 9% 10% 12% 5% 10% Great/Some Need 6% 5% 7% 88% 81% 77% 72% Public libraries 34% 38% 11% 13% 5% 72% *The Sheriff, probation system and the courts 32% 35% 12% 11% 10% 67% Parks and open space 28% 35% 15% 19% 63% *Public transportation 28% 28% 20% 16% 8% 56% Salary and benefit increases for public employees 26% 26% 15% 28% 6% 52% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 San Joaquin County Voter Survey 18

20 June 2018 Voter Support for Local Funding for Kids 19

21 Questions? 20

22 For more information, contact: 1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020 Oakland, CA Phone (510) Fax (510)