Key Findings of a Survey Conducted among Alameda Voters January 29 February 1, 2018

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Lester Price
5 years ago
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1 Key Findings of a Survey Conducted among Alameda Voters January 29 February 1,

9% Due to rounding, some %s do not add up to 100% A July 2017 Alameda survey looked at a similar infrastructure

2 2 Methodology of February 2018 Survey 400 interviews with likely June 2018 Alameda voters Conducted January 29-February 1, 2018 via landline and cell phones Margin of sampling error of ±4.9% Due to rounding, some %s do not add up to 100% A July 2017 Alameda survey looked at a similar infrastructure bond A $95 million bond received a 75% yes vote; a 15% no vote; and 9% were undecided. This survey updated the 75-word ballot language now required by AB 195.

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4 4 Majorities continue to feel optimistic about the direction of the City, and particularly their own neighborhoods. Would you say that things in are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 2018 Right Direction Mixed DK/NA Wrong Track 81% 13% Your neighborhood % 75% 5% 7% 6% 12% 14% % 8% 5% 13% % 9% 9% 22% The City of Alameda % 59% 11% 10% 7% 9% 25% 22% % 9% 8% 22%

5 5 Perception of City government continues to be positive. I am going to read you a brief list of public officials and agencies. Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing. Alameda City Government overall Strng. App. Swmt. App. DK/NA Smwt. Disapp. Strng. Disapp % 53% 10% 11% 8% % 42% 13% 11% 11% Total App. Total Disapp. 71% 19% 64% 23% Alameda Mayor and City Council % 20% 47% 38% 14% 16% 12% 14% 12% 12% 62% 24% 58% 26%

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7 7 Bond Measure Testing Approach A July 2017 survey conducted for the City looked at a similar infrastructure bond measure. A $95 million bond received a 75% yes vote; a 15% no vote; and 9% were undecided. This survey looked at a refined $95 bond measure, but also included more financial detail in the 75-word ballot language now required by recent State legislation (AB 195). Half of respondents had the ad valorem value described as dollars per $100,000 assessed home value; the other half heard cents per $1,000 assessed home value. Respondents were also read other information about potential ways the funds could be invested, and supportive and critical statements about the measure.

8 Hypothetical Infrastructure Bond Language (Language approved by City Attorney; two-thirds vote threshold) City of Alameda Infrastructure Bond. To repair deteriorating streets, sidewalks, and potholes; upgrade storm drains to prevent street flooding and keep pollution from the Bay; upgrade public facilities to address earthquake safety; and address parks and other infrastructure needs, shall the City of Alameda issue $95 million in bonds with an average levy of (HALF SAMPLE: $23 per $100,000) (HALF SAMPLE: 23 per $1,000) of assessed value, generating approximately $6 million annually to pay back the bonds over 36 years, requiring independent oversight and published audits? If there were an election today, do you think you would vote yes in favor of this measure, or no to oppose it? 8

9 Seven in ten respondents indicated they would vote yes on a bond. The new requirements did affect the definite yes vote. Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes 7% 30% 33% Total Yes 70% Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no 2% 10% 14% Total No 23% +3% above the 67% vote threshold (±4.9% MOE) Undecided 4% If there were an election today, do you think you would vote yes in favor of this measure, or no to oppose it? Split Sample 9

10 While support for a $95M infrastructure bond remained high, it decreased in aggregate and intensity. Vote July 2017 Jan/Feb 2018 Δ Definitely Yes 43% 30% -13% Probably Yes 25% 33% +8% Undecided, Lean Yes 7% 7% - Undecided, Lean No 5% 2% -3% Probably No 3% 10% +7% Definitely No 7% 14% +7% Total Yes 75% 70% -5% Total No 15% 26% +11% Undecided 9% 4% -5% If there were an election today, do you think you would vote yes in favor of this measure, or no to oppose it? Split Sample 10

11 The dollars per $100,000 assessed home value description of the ad valorem rate generated more comparative support. Ad Valorem (Dollars/$100,000) Ad Valorem (Cents/$1,000) Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes 9% 32% 33% Total Yes 73% 6% 28% 32% Total Yes 66% Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no 4% 9% 10% Total No 23% 1% 10% 18% Total No 30% Undecided 4% 4% If there were an election today, do you think you would vote yes in favor of this measure, or no to oppose it? Split Sample 11

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13 Ensuring clean drinking water and keeping pollution out of the Bay were top investment areas. ^Ensuring safe, clean drinking water Upgrading storm drains to keep pollution from the Bay Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt./DK/NA 31% 50% 47% 38% 19% 9% Ext./Very Impt. 88% 78% Repairing deteriorating streets 22% 44% 26% 7% 67% ^Improving traffic safety and flow 28% 38% 25% 9% 66% ^Addressing climate change impacts, including sea-level rise 29% 37% 18% 16% 65% ^Repairing potholes 24% 41% 28% 7% 64% Upgrading storm drains to prevent street flooding 19% 41% 30% 9% 61% Supporting new affordable housing 28% 32% 21% 18% 60% I am going to read you a list of City projects that could be funded by, or elements that could be included in, a ballot measure. Please tell me how important each project or element would be to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample 13

14 Other investment areas were important, but among fewer than the two-thirds threshold. Upgrading public facilities to address earthquake safety Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt./DK/NA 25% 35% 31% 10% Ext./Very Impt. 60% ^Requiring published audits 20% 40% 26% 14% 60% ^Providing basic shelter for Alameda's homeless 23% 36% 31% 11% 58% Repairing deteriorating sidewalks 17% 40% 36% 8% 57% Providing public infrastructure to support new affordable housing 29% 27% 24% 21% 56% Addressing City infrastructure needs 18% 37% 34% 11% 55% ^Requiring independent oversight 17% 39% 26% 19% 55% Repairing and upgrading City infrastructure 16% 38% 33% 12% 55% I am going to read you a list of City projects that could be funded by, or elements that could be included in, a ballot measure. Please tell me how important each project or element would be to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample 14

15 Lower-tier investment priorities include athletic fields and electric car charging stations. Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt. Ext./Very Impt. ^Expanding the City's green infrastructure ^Upgrading the City Animal Shelter, managed by FAAS or Friends of the Alameda Animal Shelter, to bring it up-to-date with current standards Repairing and upgrading parks 12% 14% 9% 37% 29% 34% 32% 36% 42% 18% 20% 15% 50% 43% 43% ^Upgrading utilities and infrastructure at Alameda Point 11% 30% 39% 20% 41% Addressing park needs 12% 28% 48% 12% 40% Upgrading public facilities ^Upgrading public access walkways to the water ^Providing charging stations for electric cars ^Repairing and upgrading City athletic fields and gyms 11% 9% 7% 6% 22% 20% 19% I am going to read you a list of City projects that could be funded by, or elements that could be included in, a ballot measure. Please tell me how important each project or element would be to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample 29% 39% 43% 48% 47% 27% 34% 26% 14% 40% 30% 27% 25% 15

16 After providing additional information, support ended right at the vote threshold. Full Sample, +4.9% MOE Initial Vote Supportive Statements Critical Statements Total Yes 70% 69% 67% 67% Total No 26% 28% 30% Undecided 4% 3% 3% 0% If there were an election today, do you think you would vote yes in favor of this measure, or no to oppose it? Split Sample 16

17 Support for the version using dollars per $100,000 assessed home value ended just above the vote threshold Dollars per $100,000 Version, +6.9% MOE Initial Vote Supportive Statements Critical Statements Total Yes 73% 72% 70% 67% Total No 23% 25% 27% Undecided 4% 3% 3% 0% If there were an election today, do you think you would vote yes in favor of this measure, or no to oppose it? Split Sample 17

18 while support for the cents per $1,000 assessed home value version ended just below the vote threshold. Cents per $1,000 Version, +6.9% MOE Initial Vote Supportive Statements Critical Statements Total Yes 66% 66% 64% 67% Total No 30% 31% 33% Undecided 4% 3% 3% 0% If there were an election today, do you think you would vote yes in favor of this measure, or no to oppose it? Split Sample 18

19 Overall, three in five indicated they

indicated they would vote no on the bond

19 19 Overall, three in five indicated they would vote yes each time they were asked. Consistent Yes: Voters who consistently indicated they would vote yes on the bond measure. Consistent No: Voters who consistently indicated they would vote no on the bond measure. Swing: Voters who do not fall into any of the other categories remaining consistently undecided or switching positions. Consistent Yes 59% Swing 22% Consistent No 19%

20 Information of Most Interest to Respondents (Ranked in Order of Effectiveness) (STORM DRAINS) State Water Board regulations and other factors require Alameda to make $45 million in repairs and maintenance to the City's deteriorating storm drain system. This measure will help make these repairs and maintain our storm drains, preventing street flooding, keeping pollution from spilling into the Bay, and avoiding state fines. ^(PARKS) Alameda's 21 community and neighborhood parks and beaches are an important part of what makes living here special. This measure will help repair and upgrade our parks, including helping to keep pollution out of our beaches and Bay, so our parks, beaches and waters are safe and clean for our residents to enjoy. (DISASTER PREPAREDNESS) Last winter's record rains, which caused tens of thousands of dollars in flooding damage on the island, are a preview of what we can expect with climate change. This measure will help the City prepare the community for the next disaster, such as an earthquake or flooding. ^(STREETS) Alameda has a backlog of $25 million worth of street maintenance and road repair projects. This measure is needed to repair potholes and improve traffic flow to limit congestion. ^Not Part of Split Sample 20

21 21 Repairing storm drains and keeping the Bay, beaches and parks clean resonated strongly. Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing Strom Drains 47% 32% 79% ^Parks 41% 41% 81% Disaster Preparedness 36% 35% 71% ^Streets 35% 38% 72% Federal 35% 37% 72% Accountability 31% 47% 77% ^Quality of Life 27% 37% 64% ^Housing 24% 32% 56%

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23 23 Conclusions Impressions of life in Alameda and City government remain positive. Solid majorities of voters would likely support a $95 million infrastructure bond measure in June Their top investment priorities from this particular survey relate to drinking water, upgrading storm drains, addressing sea-level rise, and fixing roads.

24 For more information, contact: 1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020 Oakland, CA Phone (510) Fax (510)

Survey Conducted: November 28 - December 3,

Survey Conducted: November 28 - December 3, 2017 220-4888 Survey Methodology Conducted a Dual Mode Survey online and by telephone between November 28 - December 3, 2017 Surveys were completed using a random