Public Education Finance Measures and Public Opinion Research

Transcription

1 Public Education Finance Measures and Public Opinion Research John Fairbank Partner (310) Presented by: Dave Metz Senior Vice President (510) January 2009 Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates Opinion Research & Public Policy Analysis Santa Monica, CA Oakland, CA Madison, WI Mexico City Overview: I. Trends in California Voter Opinion on Education II. Education Finance Measures in the 2008 Election III. IV. Uses of Opinion Research for School Finance Measures Case Studies 2008 School Finance Measures Los Angeles Community College District Measure J ($3.5 billion bond measure) Evergreen School District Measure T ($90 Parcel Tax) 2

2 I. Trends in California Voter Opinion on Education 3 Heading into the November 2008 election the general mood of the electorate was similar to the pre-2003 recall election. Right Direction Wrong Track DK/NA October 2008 August 2008 June/July 2008 April 2008 February 2008 January 2008 November 2007 August 2006 October 2005 August 2004 September % 18% 21% 26% 32% 40% 44% 45% 23% 46% 14% 67% 74% 68% 64% 50% 46% 40% 39% 49% 37% 73% 15% 8% 11% 10% 18% 14% 16% 16% 28% 17% 13% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% Do you think things in California are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 4

3 Not surprisingly, fiscal issues are currently regarded the top problems facing California. (Open-End; Top Responses Shown) Most Important Problem Facing California Today Response Budget/budget deficit Economy More jobs/need more jobs Illegal immigrants/overcrowding Schools and education/funding schools Taxes/high taxes Government Financial aid Mortgage crisis % 35% 16% 9% 4% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% Source: FMM&A Statewide Survey, January After fiscal problems, the quality of public schools continue to be an issue that concerns California voters. Very Ser. S.W. Ser. Not Too Ser. Not A Prob. At All DK/NA The growing state budget deficit 71% 25% 1% 2% The condition of California s economy 64% 31% 3% 2% The availability of reliable, good-paying jobs 52% 37% 6% 3% 2% The quality of public schools 44% 33% 11% 7% 5% Crime 42% 44% 9% 5% The amount of taxes people have to pay 40% 33% 15% 9% 3% Illegal immigration 40% 31% 14% 13% 2% Traffic congestion 36% 36% 15% 11% 2% The local effects of global warming 32% 31% 16% 16% 5% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6 Source: FMM&A Statewide Survey, January

4 In this climate, one might suspect that California voters are not eager to provide additional funding for schools. However. 7 When asked about their opposition to specific cuts in state spending, eight in ten voters oppose cuts to public schools and seven in ten to cuts in higher education. Oppose Cuts Favor Cuts No Opinion Public schools 80% Health care for low income and disabled residents 77% 3% Law enforcement and police 71% 26% 3% Higher education/public universities and colleges 71% 28% 1% Child care programs 70% 26% 4% Public transportation 67% 30% 3% Water storage and supply facilties 64% 29% 7% State road and highway building and repair 62% 36% 2% State parks and recreational facilties 59% 38% 3% State prisons and correctional facilities 50% 46% 4% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% Data from statewide survey conducted by the California Field Poll, l, May

5 California voters are willing to protect public schools from spending cuts even if it means raising taxes. Which area are you most willing to protect against cuts in spending, even if it means raising taxes? Public schools 37% Health care programs 25% Higher education 14% Prisons and corrections Public Assistance Programs 8% 6% None/No Opinion 10% 0% 40% 60% Data from statewide survey conducted by the California Field Poll, l, May And even given the economic climate, 2/3 rds of California voters would support a local school bond measure to increase funding. If your local school district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for school construction projects, would you vote yes or no? Yes 65% 66% 71% No 30% 28% 23% DK 5% 6% 6% 0% 40% 60% 80% 0% 40% 60% 80% 0% 40% 60% 80% Data from statewide surveys conducted by the Public Policy Institute tute of California (PPIC) 10

6 II. Education Finance Measures in the 2008 Election 11 In the November 2008 election, voters throughout California were asked to approve additional funding for a local school district. Special District 8% County 9% City 33% School bond 41% School parcel tax 9% 50% of all local measures on the Nov ballot were school finance measures, including a total of $22.4 billion in bond measures for local school districts and community colleges Proposed local revenue measures for November 2008, excluding referenda erenda to reduce or repeal taxes or fees. Source: California Local Government Finance Almanac,

7 Despite the economic crisis, California voters approved 87 of the 95 school bond measures with an average of 65% voting yes on each measure. In total, these bonds will provide $22.2 billion for school construction and improvement projects at the local level. Approved Bonds Passed 92% Passed with over 55% "yes" vote 65% Failed 8% Passed with over 50% "yes" vote Passed with more than 70% "yes" vote 15% Source: California Local Government Finance Almanac, School-Related Measures in the November 2008 Election, by Required Vote Threshold (92 school bond measures required a 55% vote to pass; 3 bond measures required a two-thirds vote; 21 parcel tax measures required a supermajority) Passed Failed School bonds requiring a 55% vote School parcel taxes requiring a 2/3 vote School bonds requiring a 2/3 vote 67% 81% 92% 33% 19% 8% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: California Local Government Finance Almanac,

8 III. Uses of Opinion Research for School Finance Measures 15 Polling What is it Good For? A poll informs the decision-making process about a school finance measure; it tells you: Whether a measure is likely to win approval; What types of funding mechanisms and tax thresholds voters are willing to support; Which types of programmatic or facilities improvements they view as the highest priorities; and Which pieces of information they would most like to have to make up their minds about a measure. A poll helps you design and time a measure to match the public s priorities and maximize its chances of success. 16

9 What types of research do school districts do? Quantitative research (a poll) involves interviews with a random sample of hundreds of likely voters, usually by telephone. It tells you, with statistical validity, the degree to which voters hold certain attitudes or beliefs. Qualitative research (a focus group) is a more extended conversation (around two hours) with a smaller group of likely voters (around 10) that helps give you a deeper understanding of the factors that underlie those attitudes and beliefs. It has no statistical validity. In other words, a focus group is not a poll. On a limited budget, a poll is more important. 17 What types of polls are conducted for a school finance measure? Feasibility Poll Typically conducted by the district an early poll to determine what type of ballot measure and/or funding source is most viable. Baseline/Benchmark Poll Conducted by a campaign committee. Conducted shortly after structure and language of measure are set. Determines targeting, messages, and strategy. Tracking Poll Conducted by a campaign committee. If necessary and within budget, conducted in final weeks before Election Day, to measure progress and adjust strategy accordingly. 18

10 All adults Who should you interview? If you are interested in broad social perspectives particularly those of younger people, people of color, or those with lower levels of education/income, you will want a broad sample of all adults. Registered voters Drawing a sample of all registered voters is a good way to narrow your sample to people with at least a minimal level of civic engagement. Likely voters If you are trying to model potential election results as is the case with most polls on school finance measures you should focus on this subset of voters. 19 Which sample size and margin of error should you target? Sample Size Margin of Error +/- 6.9% +/- 5.7% +/- 4.9% +/- 4.0% M.O.E. for Men/Women +/- 9.8% +/- 8.0% +/- 6.9% +/- 8.0% Of course, more interviews is always better; the larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error Generally speaking, most school finance polls use samples of between 400 (+/- 4.9%) and 1,000 (+/- 3.0%) 800 1,000 +/- 3.5% +/- 3.1% +/- 4.9% +/- 4.4% The larger and more diverse the electorate, the larger sample size you will need 20

11 How is a questionnaire typically structured? 1) Screening questions designed to make sure you are talking to a likely voter 2) Background/contextual questions: right direction/ wrong track, most important problem facing the school district, perceptions of the performance of the school board and local schools 3) Perceptions of the schools greatest needs, or areas where improvement is most desired 4) The ballot question, based on a draft ballot label 5) Structural components of the ballot measure: variations in funding mechanism, amount, uses of money, accountability provisions 6) Pro and con arguments with re-votes to identify potential shifts in support 7) Demographics (age, gender, race, income, party, etc.) This is only a typical structure; it can and should vary with each specific case 21 The Opinion Research Process Process begins with an initial meeting to discuss the full range of issues that should be explored in the survey research Opinion research firm works with the District and others (bond counsel, architects, etc.) to develop an effective research instrument Interviewing completed by trained, professional interviewers District and its team receives: 1) topline results; 2) crosstabulated data; 3) a written report; and 4) a graphic presentation of highlights Whole process typically takes 4 6 weeks Final Research Product: recommendations on timing, structure, content, and public education for a ballot measure that should yield the greatest chance of success 22

12 Benefits of Feasibility Research for School Finance Measures Gauging the likelihood of a potential ballot measure s success Testing alternative structures for a ballot measure, including a bond (55%) or a two-thirds (66.7%) measure such as a parcel tax Determining voters tax tolerance Determining which components of a ballot measure particularly potential uses of revenue voters view most favorably Assessing demographic patterns of support for a ballot measure: base supporters, base opponents, and swing voters Identifying the impact that various election dates may have on a measure s prospects for success 23 IV. Examples of Research on 2008 School Finance Measures: 1) Measure J, $3.5B bond, LACCD 2) Measure T, $90/parcel, Evergreen ESD 24

13 Example 1: School Bond Measure Measure J Los Angeles Community College District $3.5 Billion Bond 25 Context for the LACCD Bond Measure District includes nine community colleges, serving approximately 115,000 full-time and part-time students Serves a culturally and socio-economically diverse population that includes 36 cities within Los Angeles County Won approval for two prior bond measures: Prop A (2001; $1.2 billion) and Prop AA (2003; $980 million) The district faced a need for increased funding to upgrade outdated classrooms and facilities, expand capacity to serve growing enrollment, upgrade job training classrooms and improve energy-efficiency to reduce operating costs A feasibility survey was conducted in March of 2008 key findings follow 26

14 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey Methodology Survey conducted March 13-20, 2008 Interviews conducted by telephone with 1000 voters in the Los Angeles Community College District likely to vote in the November 2008 Presidential Election. The margin of error for the full sample was +/- 3.1%. Prior surveys included for comparison purposes: June 2006 (N=1000; +/- 3.1% M.O.E.) December 2002 (N=950; +/- 3.2% M.O.E.) November 1999 (N=1000; +/- 3.1% M.O.E.). 27 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey Voters identified the state budget deficit, the local economy and the home foreclosure crisis as their biggest concerns. Ext./Very Ser. SW Ser. Not Pro. DK/NA *The state budget deficit 71% 12% 6% 11% *The condition of the local economy 65% 12% 3% * Home foreclosures 64% 17% 15% 4% The cost of a college education 60% 21% 13% 6% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10. Next, let me mention a few things some people might consider to be a problem. After I mention each one, please tell me whether you personally consider it to be an extremely serious problem, very serious, somewhat serious or really not much of a problem at all for people living in your area. *Split Sample. 28

15 1% Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey Continued Ext./Very Ser. SW Ser. Not Pro. DK/NA Crime, gangs and drugs 57% 23% 19% *Unemployment 57% 21% 16% 6% * A lack of good paying jobs 55% 24% 18% 3% * State budget cuts to local community colleges 55% 19% 15% 11% The amount of local property taxes people pay 40% 27% 22% 11% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10. Next, let me mention a few things some people might consider to be a problem. After I mention each one, please tell me whether you personally consider it to be an extremely serious problem, very serious, somewhat serious or really not much of a problem at all for people living in your area. *Split Sample. 29 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey Two versions of the 75-word ballot summary were tested: Programs Version The Los Angeles Community College District Classroom Repair, Construction and Job Training Programs Measure. To relieve overcrowding, improve education, upgrade job training/technical education opportunities, including computer skills programs and prepare students for careers as nurses, police officers, and firefighters, at every Los Angeles Community College by repairing, building and equipping classroom buildings; improving health/security conditions; improving energy efficiency; and acquiring/improving real property, shall Los Angeles Community College District issue fivepoint-five billion dollars in bonds at interest rates within legal limits, requiring citizens oversight, annual audits, and no money for administrators salaries? 6/7. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose it? Repairs Version The Los Angeles Community College District Classroom Repair, Construction and Job Training Programs Measure. To repair, build and equip classroom buildings at every Los Angeles Community College ensuring health and security; improving energy efficiency; and acquiring/improving real property to relieve overcrowding, improve education, upgrade job training/technical education opportunities, including computer skills programs and prepare students for careers as nurses, police officers, and firefighters, shall Los Angeles Community College District issue five-point-five billion dollars in bonds at interest rates within legal limits, requiring citizens oversight, annual audits, and no money for administrators salaries? 30

16 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey The research showed that a bond measure emphasizing repairs yielded a net gain of 7 percentage points. Programs Version Repairs Version Definitely yes Probably yes Lean yes 6% 28% 27% TOTAL YES 61% 6% 31% 27% TOTAL YES 64% Lean no Probably no 3% 8% TOTAL NO 23% 3% 7% TOTAL NO 19% Definitely no 12% 9% Undecided 16% 17% 0% 40% 60% 80% 0% 40% 60% 80% Q6/7 Combined. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose it? 31 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey Despite a rapidly deteriorating economy, support for the bond remained steady suggesting that voters are willing to provide funding for local education even in bad times Definitely yes 30% TOTAL 33% TOTAL Probably yes 27% YES 24% YES 63% 61% Lean yes 6% 4% Lean no Probably no 3% 7% TOTAL NO 2% 8% TOTAL NO 28% Definitely no 10% 18% Undecided 17% 11% 0% 40% 60% 80% Q6/7 Combined. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose it? 0% 40% 60% 80% 32

17 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey November 2008 was the best election for the LACCD bond because the turnout among younger voters, Democrats and independents would be at its highest. 100% Age Total Yes Total No Undecided Party Registration 80% 70% 67% 71% 60% 56% 40% 15% 15% 26% 18% 16% 17% 43% 37% 17% 12% 0% % of Sample (53%) (42%) (57%) (21%) (22%) Q6/7 Combined. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose it? Democrat Republican DTS/Other 33 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey LACCD voters were less supportive when informed that the annual cost of the measure would be $17 per $100,000 of assessed property value. Definitely yes Probably yes Lean yes 5% 21% TOTAL YES 46% Lean no Probably no Definitely no 4% 11% 21% TOTAL NO 36% Undecided 18% 0% 10% 30% 40% 9. What if this bond measure resulted in a property tax of seventeen dollars per year per 100 thousand dollars of assessed property value, which is not the market value of your house but the amount your property taxes are based on? Would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose it? 34

18 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey Messages incorporating public safety and making basic and essential repairs continued to be compelling reasons to support a bond measure. (Ranked by Much More Inclined to Vote Yes to Support Bond Measure) Much More Incl. S.W. More Incl. *Currently, there is a severe shortage of nurses and police officers in communities across Los Angeles County. Funds from this bond will increase the number of nurses, police officers, firefighters, and paramedics that can be trained at local community colleges. By increasing the number of welltrained and qualified health and public safety workers who live and work in local communities, this measure enhances local healthcare and public safety services % 45% 29% 24% 77% 69% Funds from this measure will be used to make essential repairs at local community colleges that are aging and deteriorating. This includes improving fire safety, replacing outdated plumbing, fixing leaky roofs, increasing energy-efficiency by upgrading wiring and ventilation systems, and repairing classrooms and science labs to provide students and teachers with a safe and healthy learning environment. 47% 28% 75% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 14. I am going to read you some statements made by people who support this community college bond measure. Please tell me if it makes you more inclined to vote yes to support the bond measure. If you do not believe the statement, or if it has no effect on your thinking one way or the other, please tell me that too. *Split Sample. 35 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey But as the economy soured, communicating how a school bond measure would help local workers and the local economy resonated strongly with voters. Los Angeles must have a skilled and well-educated workforce to attract businesses and maintain a thriving local economy. This measure funds the upgrade, expansion and creation of new career and technical job training classrooms and equipment so local community colleges can create the well-trained workforce needed to keep our local economy strong for the next generation. Much More Incl. 46% S.W. More Incl. 28% 74% Computers and technology have changed the economy. No longer can a person rely on a low-skill manufacturing job to earn a decent living. This measure provides Los Angeles community colleges with the funds needed to create job training and education programs that prepare students for careers in a 21st century economy. 0% 40% 60% 80% 14. I am going to read you some statements made by people who support this community college bond measure. Please tell me if it makes you more inclined to vote yes to support the bond measure. If you do not believe the statement, or if it has no effect on your thinking one way or the other, please tell me that too. *Split Sample. 45% 31% 76% 36

19 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey Messages promoting cost savings through energy efficiency and green technology also proved to be effective while the Wall St. collapse and the economic crisis dominated news coverage. This bond measure will increase energy efficiency, reducing costs and putting more money in the classroom. For example, by installing solar panels, East L.A. College will save 270 thousand dollars a year on energy costs. By funding solar panels, energy efficient lighting, water conservation programs and other energy efficient building practices this bond measure saves local taxpayer money for years to come. Much More Incl. 38% S.W. More Incl. 31% 69% Projects funded by this measure will be designed and built to receive the nationally recognized LEED certification for environmental sustainability. To qualify, Los Angeles community colleges will be built to increase water conservation, use energy efficient lighting, and implement innovative waste management and recycling programs. These improvements will make local community colleges more environmentally-friendly and energy efficient, which will cut costs and save money for years to come. 0% 40% 60% 80% 14. I am going to read you some statements made by people who support this community college bond measure. Please tell me if it makes you more inclined to vote yes to support the bond measure. If you do not believe the statement, or if it has no effect on your thinking one way or the other, please tell me that too. *Split Sample. 35% 33% 68% 37 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey In a bad economy, it was effective to address voters fiscal concerns directly and to communicate the required accountability provisions. This measure locks in the tax rate residents presently pay to fund local community colleges. Passing this measure will provide billions of dollars to local community colleges to fund needed repairs and upgrades to job training programs without raising the current tax rate. Much More Incl. 38% S.W. More Incl. 33% 71% This bond measure includes strict accountability requirements including a Citizens' Oversight Committee and independent annual financial and performance audits. No money from this measure will go towards administrators salaries % 35% 25% 25% 62% 60% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 14. I am going to read you some statements made by people who support this community college bond measure. Please tell me if it makes you more inclined to vote yes to support the bond measure. If you do not believe the statement, or if it has no effect on your thinking one way or the other, please tell me that too. *Split Sample. 38

20 Los Angeles Community College District Bond Measure Survey The survey research tracked support for the bond measure and reflected Election Day results. Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 61% 63% 68% 71% 70% 60% 40% 0% 28% 11% 17% 24% 21% 8% 8% November 2006 March 2008 July 2008 October 2008 Total Yes 61% 63% 68% 71% 70% Total No 28% 24% 21% 30% Undecided 11% 17% 8% 8% N/A 30% Election Day Results-November 4, Using the messaging tested in the research, the Measure J campaign s s mail directly addressed concerns about the local economy and jobs. Produced by SGA Campaigns 40

21 Support from the public safety community, particularly firefighters, remains an effective approach in passing local finance measures. The Nov ballot was crowded with many state and local measures, and many voters were casting ballots for the first time. Therefore, the mailers emphasized look for Measure J J to focus attention down the ballot. Produced by SGA Campaigns 41 Measure J mail combined two themes determined to be effective in the research: helping the economy and promoting new green energy-efficient efficient technologies. Produced by SGA Campaigns 42

22 Several key Measure J messages are covered in this mailer: Jobs and Job Training No New Tax Support from a diverse cross-section section of local leaders and organizations. Produced by SGA Campaigns 43 Example 2: Parcel Tax Measure Measure T Evergreen (Elementary) School District $90/parcel 44

23 Context for the Evergreen School District Parcel Tax Measure District includes fifteen elementary schools and three middle schools, with a student population of 13,300 Serves a culturally and socio-economically diverse population in southeastern San Jose Won approval for Measure I a $150 million bond measure in November 2006 The district faced a need for increased funding for operations, in order to avoid major cuts A feasibility survey was conducted in May of 2008 key findings follow 45 Methodology 400 telephone interviews with Evergreen School District voters likely to cast ballots in the November 2008 general election Interviews conducted between May 12-15, 2008 Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.9% 46

24 Voters saw budget issues and overcrowded classes as the top two problems facing the District. (Open-ended; Top Responses Only) Overcrowded classrooms Lack of funding Low academic standards Need better teachers/lack of qualifications Not enough teachers Budget cuts Drugs Gangs Low pay for teachers Nothing Other DK/NA 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 18% 17% 16% 21% 0% 10% 30% 40% 4. What is the most important problem facing K through eight public schools in the Evergreen School District today? 47 Ballot Language Tested THE EVERGREEN SCHOOL DISTRICT SMALL CLASS SIZES AND ACADEMIC ENRICHMENT MEASURE. To improve the overall quality of public education and enhance student achievement through programs such as: maintaining small class sizes and providing more personal attention from teachers; enhancing science, technology, and math instruction; bringing back music and arts programs; and maintaining existing library hours, shall the Evergreen School District assess an annual parcel tax of $120 per parcel with citizen oversight and independent, annual audits? 48

25 A solid majority of voters supported a parcel tax measure, but support initially fell just short of the two-thirds threshold. Definitely yes Probably yes 35% Total Yes 64% Undecided, lean yes 9% Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no 3% 8% 16% Total No 27% Undecided 9% 0% 40% 60% 5. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this measure? 49 Top Reasons Offered for Support or Opposition (Open-ended; Top Responses Only) Why vote yes? % Why vote no? % General Positive/Good Idea/Important 28% Quality Of Public Education/For Children 28% Funding Is Needed/Dedicated To Stated Areas/Economic Conditions Small Class Sizes 14% Taxpayer/Bond Funding/Can't Afford More Taxes/Economic Conditions Funding Already Exists/Should Spend Money They Have More Wisely General Negative/Won't Work/Other Issues Are More Important Don't Have Children/Grandchildren In School District 45% 37% 16% 11% Music & Arts Programs 10% Cost/Too Expensive 10% Personal Attention From Teachers 8% Cost/Affordable/Worth The Money 6% Achievement Enhancements/Student Performance Improvement Curriculum Improvements/Math & Science Instruction 3% 3% 6. Why would you vote (YES/NO) on this measure? 50

26 Younger Democrats were the strongest supporters of the measure, while older Republicans were least supportive. Total Yes Total No DK/NA 100% 82% Democrat Republican 80% 60% 57% 62% 49% 44% 40% 27% 29% 10% 8% 16% 9% 7% 0% % of Sample (21%) (25%) (11%) (17%) 5. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this measure? 51 Voters of color, particularly Latinos, supported the parcel tax at higher levels than did whites. Total Yes Total No DK/NA 100% 80% 74% 66% 71% 60% 56% 40% 36% 8% 16% 10% 18% 16% 17% 12% 0% % of White Latino Asian Non-White Sample (43%) (19%) (27%) (54%) 5. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this measure? 52

27 Parents with children in public schools were also a crucial demographic. Total Yes Total No DK/NA 100% 80% 77% 75% 75% 62% 60% 40% 19% 22% 31% 4% 3% 5% 7% 0% Evergreen Elementary/ Middle School Public High School % of Sample (27%) (15%) Total Public School (37%) Private/ Parochial School (5%) 5. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this measure? 53 The survey found that reducing the amount of the tax to the $90 could move support over two-thirds. Initial $120 Support Support With Additional Yes Voters at $90 Definitely yes 35% 36% Probably yes Total Yes 64% 22% Total Yes 70% Undecided, lean yes 9% 12% 0% 40% 60% 0% 40% 60% 5. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this measure? 54

28 Voters expressed strong support for all potential projects, particularly ensuring student safety, maintaining small class sizes, and enhancing science and math instruction. (Ranked by Total Extremely/Very Important) Ensuring adequate student supervision and safety at all schools through appropriate staffing Enhancing math instruction *Maintaining class sizes at one teacher for every 20 students in kindergarten through third grade Enhancing science instruction *Maintaining small class sizes Maintaining existing library hours Restoring funding levels for classroom supplies Ext. Impt. 42% 36% 45% 33% 39% 31% 30% Bringing back arts and music education 32% Maintaining free bus transportation for students 29% Maintaining funding levels for special education programs 25% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 8. Please tell me how important it is to you that each of the following projects be funded by the measure we have been discussing. Is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? *Split Sample 42% 45% 35% 45% 36% 40% 41% 34% 36% 40% Very Impt. 84% 81% 80% 78% 75% 71% 71% 66% 65% 65% 55 When forced to choose, voters prioritized small class sizes, and enhancing science, technology and math instruction. (Ranked by Total 1 st and 2 nd Choice) 1st Choice 2nd Choice Enhancing science, technology, and math instruction 34% 31% 65% Maintaining small class sizes 39% 22% 61% Bringing back music and arts programs 17% 23% 40% 4% Maintaining existing library hours 12% 16% 0% 40% 60% 80% 9. Here are four major areas this measure may fund. Which of these four specific areas is the most important to be funded by the measure we have been discussing? 56

29 As the state budget crisis worsened, the inclusion of various accountability provisions became increasingly important to obtaining voter support. (Ranked by Total More Likely) Requiring that no money from the parcel tax will go towards district office administrators salaries Much More Lik. 53% S.W. More Lik. 24% 77% Including exemptions from the parcel tax for low-income senior citizens 42% 35% 77% Requiring that all expenditures will be audited annually by an independent auditor 43% 31% 74% Requiring that a citizens watchdog committee will oversee the program 38% 32% 70% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10a-d. I am going to mention some different provisions that may be included in the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you would be more likely or less likely to support the measure if it included that particular provision. 57 Inclusion of a sunset provision led voters to say they would be more supportive. Five Year Sunset Ten Year Sunset Much more likely Somewhat more likely 42% Total More Likely 32% 74% 27% 37% Total More Likely 64% Somewhat less likely Much less likely 4% 6% Total Less Likely 10% 10% 6% Total Less Likely 16% No difference 16% 0% 40% 60% 80% 0% 40% 60% 80% 10e/f. I am going to mention some different provisions that may be included in the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you would be more likely or less likely to support the measure if it included that particular provision. Split Sample 58

30 The strongest arguments for the measure highlighted the benefits of small class sizes; science, technology and math programs; and arts and music education. (Ranked by Very Convincing) Very Conv. S.W. Conv. Research demonstrates that children benefit from the personal attention they receive in small classes. This measure ensures Evergreen schools will maintain small class sizes and create better learning environments. 50% 30% 80% *Arts and music activities foster creativity, which is especially important for children. Creative problem-solving skills are a critical component in today s competitive, global economy, and studies show that students with some involvement in the arts average 90 points higher on the SAT. The twenty-first century economy offers many opportunities to those with science and math backgrounds. This measure will enhance science, technology and math programs to give our children the solid academic background needed to thrive in the future. 49% 47% 30% 35% 79% 82% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 11. Here are some statements we have heard from various people who support the Evergreen School District parcel tax measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on the measure. *Split Sample 59 Voters also responded to messages about restoring funding from state budget cuts and protecting property values. Very Conv. S.W. Conv. Classroom supply budgets were recently cut by 25 percent. This measure will restore those cuts and prevent teachers from having to pay for supplies out of their own pockets. 42% 35% 77% *One of the reasons our community is such a desirable place to live is the high quality of education provided by Evergreen schools. Maintaining the quality of those schools will help maintain and increase our property values. 41% 39% 80% State budget cuts have squeezed arts and music classes out of our schools. This measure will restore those valuable programs. 40% 36% 76% Due to the state s budget deficit, state funding for Evergreen schools has been cut by millions of dollars. This measure will preserve the high quality education our local elementary and middle schools provide. 39% 39% 78% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 11. Here are some statements we have heard from various people who support the Evergreen School District parcel tax measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on the measure. *Split Sample 60

31 Though both total and definite support increased after the arguments, many voters still only softly supported the measure. Definitely yes Probably yes 21% 42% Total Yes 72% Undecided, lean yes 9% Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no 3% 6% 15% Total No 24% Undecided 4% 0% 40% 60% 80% 5. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this measure? 61 Survey Research Conclusions and Recommendations Many factors created a favorable environment for a parcel tax: high regard for the school district, high priority attached to the potential uses of revenue raised, and support from a consistent majority of voters even at $120 per year. At the same time, other factors highlight challenges in reaching the two-thirds threshold: a worsening economy, lack of confidence in the management of money, and the potential for competing measures. Based on the survey, the District was given the following recommendations to maximize their chances for success: Set the amount of the tax under $100 Focus spending on class sizes and math/science instruction Include all possible accountability provisions, including a sunset Conduct an aggressive voter education and outreach effort Build the broadest possible coalition behind the measure 62

32 Total support eclipsed the two-thirds threshold after pro and con arguments, and the research predicted Election Day success. 100% Total Yes Total No Undecided 80% 64% 71% 72% 74% 60% 40% 27% 25% 24% 26% 0% 9% 4% 4% Initial Vote Vote After Positives Vote After Negatives Election Day Total Yes 64% 71% 72% 74% Total No 27% 25% 24% 26% Undecided 9% 4% 4% N/A 5/12/14. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this measure? 63 Summary of Evergreen School District Yes on Measure T Campaign Activities Direct mail: Four mailers targeted at Dem men, Dem women 50+, Independents and Asian Americans. First mailer sent to coincide with permanent absentee voters receiving ballots. Field Operations: 3 days of precinct walking and paid phone bank operations. Paid Media: Website, ads in local newspaper, 400 lawn signs and banners in high traffic commercial areas. 64

33 By emphasizing the particular components of the ballot measure the research identified as most important to voters this mailer specifies how Measure T funds improve local classroom education. Produced by Saggau & DeRollo 65 This mailer demonstrates how messages tested in survey research can be adapted to produce campaign mail that communicates the most effective themes in promoting support for the ballot measure. Produced by Saggau & DeRollo 66

34 Support for a ballot measure among an array of local stakeholders particularly the local newspaper demonstrates to voters a community-wide consensus. Produced by Saggau & DeRollo 67 The bottom line is that even in today s s tough economic and budgetary climate, California voters remain willing to support critical investments in local public schools provided that they have a clear understanding of the need, and confidence that their money will be used effectively. At the same time, the precise level of support for finance measures will vary from district to district, and will change with the passage of time. Updated opinion research can validate whether and when a specific district has a good opportunity to move to the ballot. 68

35 Public Education Finance Measures and Public Opinion Research John Fairbank Partner (310) Presented by: Dave Metz Senior Vice President (510) January 2009 Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates Opinion Research & Public Policy Analysis Santa Monica, CA Oakland, CA Madison, WI Mexico City