Larkspur-Corte Madera School District: 2014 Bond Feasibility Survey

Transcription

1 Larkspur-Corte Madera School District: 2014 Bond Feasibility Survey

2 Overview and Research Objectives Larkspur-Corte Madera School District commissioned TBWB and Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the following research objectives: Assess potential voter support for a bond measure to relieve overcrowding and provide safe and modern schools with funding that cannot be taken by the State; Identify the optimum tax amount at which voters will support the measure; Prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds; Test the influence of supporting and opposing arguments on potential voter support; and Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic and/or voter behavioral characteristics. Page 2

3 Methodology Overview Data Collection Telephone Interviewing Universe 7,084 registered likely November 2014 voters in the Larkspur-Corte Madera School District, with a sub-sample of those likely to vote in the June 2014 election. Fielding Dates January 6 through January 13, 2014 Interview Length 18 minutes Sample Size 270 likely November 2014 voters 230 likely June 2014 voters Margin of Error ± 5.9% November 2014 ± 6.3% June 2014 Note: The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in the Larkspur-Corte Madera School District in terms of their gender, age, and political party type. Page 3

4 Key Findings

5 Opinion on Whether LCMSD is Providing a Quality Education Don't know/ No opinion 20.1% Very Unfavorable 2.2% Very Favorable 39.0% Somewhat Unfavorable 6.2% Somewhat Favorable 32.5% Ratio: 8.5 to 1 Page 5

6 Opinion on Whether LCMSD is Effectively Managing Taxpayer Dollars Don't know/ No opinion 30.1% Very Favorable 25.7% Very Unfavorable 8.1% Somewhat Unfavorable 9.4% Somewhat Favorable 26.8% Ratio: 3 to 1 Page 6

7 Opinion on Whether LCMSD is Effectively Managing Renovation of Schools Don't know/ No opinion 29.5% Very Favorable 33.8% Very Unfavorable 4.8% Somewhat Unfavorable 7.7% Somewhat Favorable 24.3% Ratio: 4.6 to 1 Page 7

8 Uninformed Support Definitely No 15.3% Probably No 13.9% DK/NA 7.3% Nov 2014 Yes = 64.4% No = 27.6% Total Support 63.5% Definitely Yes 34.7% Probably Yes 28.8% To relieve school overcrowding and provide safe and modern schools for all students by: Making essential fire and earthquake safety upgrades to existing schools; Replacing portables and completing construction of additional new classrooms; Upgrading outdated heating, ventilation and electrical systems; and, Enhancing classroom technology infrastructure; shall Larkspur-Corte Madera School District issue $19 million in bonds at legal rates, that can t be taken by the State, with independent citizens' oversight, no money for administrators' salaries and all funds for Larkspur-Corte Madera schools? Page 8

9 Features of the Measure Bond Measure Reduce school overcrowding Replace portables at Hall & Neil Cummins Schools Complete essential fire & earthquake safety upgrades Remove lead, asbestos and other hazardous materials Replace outdated HVAC, electrical and plumbing Fix leaking roofs Improve fire safety systems incl. alarms & sprinklers Modern, up-to-date classrooms for all students All classrooms accessible for students with disabilities Improve the safety of playgrounds and equipment Complete needed repair to provide safe classrooms Sufficient classrooms to alleviate overcrowding Replace leaking and inefficient windows Update classroom instructional technology Upgrade aging student restrooms Remove portables at Hall & Neil Cummins Schools Improve classrooms to meet modern standards Remove cracked blacktop with eco-friendly surfaces Split Sample A Split Sample B No Effect Somewhat More Much More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, No Effect = 0, Somewhat Less Likely = -1, and Much Less Likely = -2. Page 9

10 Influence of Supporting Statements Enrollment has been steadily increasing No $ for administrators' salaries All $ will go to schools in the LCMSD Make District eligible for $millions in matching funds Planning facilities upgrades in two phases Significantly more students than schools designed for Indep. oversight committee ensure $ spent as promised Affordable construction and interest costs today Saving on utilities bills provide $ for use in classroom Good local schools help improve property values Second phase of the District's original facilities plan District has been very fiscally responsible Split Sample A Split Sample B No Effect Somewhat More Much More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, No Effect = 0, Somewhat Less Likely = -1, and Much Less Likely = -2. Page 10

11 Interim Support Interim Ballot Test Initial Ballot Test 39.5% 34.7% 27.2% 28.8% 10.8% 13.9% 14.8% 15.3% 7.7% 7.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA To relieve school overcrowding and provide safe and modern schools for all students by: Making essential fire and earthquake safety upgrades to existing schools; Replacing portables and completing construction of additional new classrooms; Upgrading outdated heating, ventilation and electrical systems; and, Enhancing classroom technology infrastructure; shall Larkspur-Corte Madera School District issue $19 million in bonds at legal rates, that can t be taken by the State, with independent citizens' oversight, no money for administrators' salaries and all funds for Larkspur- Corte Madera schools? Nov 2014 Yes = 69.6% No = 24% Page 11

12 Potential Opposition Statements Public employee salaries, benefits out of control.78 Economic recovery is very fragile, not right time.72 District misled us about total cost of the 2-phase plan.70 If SD learns to manage money properly.66 New classrooms that District built are too expensive No Effect Somewhat More Much More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0. Page 12

13 Informed and Uninformed Support Final Ballot Test Initial Ballot Test 35.0% 34.7% 27.8% 28.8% 12.4% 13.9% 16.5% 15.3% 8.3% 7.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA To relieve school overcrowding and provide safe and modern schools for all students by: Making essential fire and earthquake safety upgrades to existing schools; Replacing portables and completing construction of additional new classrooms; Upgrading outdated heating, ventilation and electrical systems; and, Enhancing classroom technology infrastructure; shall Larkspur-Corte Madera School District issue $19 million in bonds at legal rates, that can t be taken by the State, with independent citizens' oversight, no money for administrators' salaries and all funds for Larkspur- Corte Madera schools? Nov 2014 Yes = 65.8% No = 26.4% Page 13

14 Support for Different Rates 67.0% 17.6% 22.3% 21.3% 16.0% Probably Yes Definitely Yes 32.9% 37.2% 43.3% 47.6% 0.0% $29 $25 $21 $17 Annual Tax per $100,000 Assessed Value Page 14

15 Summary and Recommendations

16 Summary and Recommendations The survey revealed a base of voter support for a bond measure, and Godbe Research and TBWB Strategies recommend that Larkspur-Corte Madera School District consider preparing for a bond measure in the June 2014 election. While support for the bond measure is slightly higher in the November 2014 election, the difference is not statistically significant." The survey results indicate potential voter support for an affordable bond measure to maintain and update local school facilities. Specifically, support for the bond measure was 55 percent when likely June voters were provided with an annual property tax rate of $29 per $100,000 in assessed value and 59 percent at an rate of $25 per $100,000 in assessed value. Given a slight tax rate sensitivity, an independent campaign should communicate the district s facilities situation clearly. The survey results indicate the Larkspur-Corte Madera School District should: Begin the necessary steps to place a bond measure on the June 2014 ballot. Begin a community outreach and public information effort to explain the district s facilities needs. Be prepared to head off voter concerns and explain the District s two-phase approach. Page 16

17