Welcome. Dr. Buck Gilcrease Alvin ISD Superintendent. David Becker Paul Ingamells CAC Co-Chairs

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1 June 15, 2015

2 Welcome Dr. Buck Gilcrease Alvin ISD Superintendent David Becker Paul Ingamells CAC Co-Chairs

3 Committee Rankings 1. New Elementary School #17 2. New Elementary School #18 3. New Junior High #7 4. Replacement Elementary School #19 (East Side) 5. New CTE Center 6. New Elementary School #20 7. Alvin HS Auditorium Upgrades 8. New District Stadium 9. Alvin HS Stadium Upgrades 10. Land for High School #4 11. Design for New Junior High #8 12. New TransportaPon Center 13. Land for Elementary School # New District Natatorium

4 Baselice & Associates Phone Survey Results

5 ALVIN ISD SURVEY May 27-30, 2015 N = 301 respondents margin of error: + 5.7%

6 OBJECTIVES 1 To assess current levels of support and opposition to various bond proposals. 2 To measure voter opinions regarding possible various elements of a potential bond as well as statements against a bond. 3 To measure voter support and opposition to various bond proposals, once they had heard more about it.

7 QUESTIONNAIRE FORMAT 1 Introduction and Screeners 2 General & Specific Issues 3 Initial Ballots (Q4, Q6, Q7) 4 Impact of Specific Information 5 Informed Ballots (Q28, Q29, Q30) 6 Demographics Multiple regression is used to measure correlation of specific information between initial and informed ballots

8 DISTRIBUTION OF INTERVIEWS BY ZIP North Alvin ISD n=80 27% Central Alvin ISD n=76 25% Southeast Alvin ISD n=145 48%

9 VOTING BEHAVIOR QC. Thinking about local elections for a moment -- would you say that you vote in all, most, only some, very few, or none of the local elections dealing with bond issues, taxes and local development projects? All Most Only some Very few None / refused % 29% 21% 7% 16% 0% % 20% 32% 8% 14% 0% % 36% 23% 2% 2% 0% % 37% 10% 2% 7% 1% Parent 31% 25% 23% 7% 13% 1% Non-parent 36% 36% 18% 2% 7% 0% 34% 31% 20% 5% 10% <.5% All Most Only some Very few None / refused

10 ALVIN ISD IMPRESSION Q2. Do you have a strong positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or strong negative impression of Alvin Independent School District? 79% 35% 43% Strong Positive 8% / Refused 14% 8% 5% Strong Negative

11 DISTRICT OPERATIONS Q3. Which of the following best describes your opinion of how Alvin ISD manages the money it has to operate the school district... Wisely / effectively As well as can be expected Wastefully / ineffectively / refused Parents 31% 51% 8% 11% Non-parents 23% 42% 18% 16% Male parents 26% 48% 10% 16% Female parents 34% 54% 6% 7% Male non-parents 23% 45% 21% 10% Female non-parents 23% 39% 15% 23% 27% 47% 13% 13% Wisely and effectively As well as can be expected Wastefully and ineffectively / refused

12 INITIAL BALLOT Q4. Alvin ISD is considering calling a bond election for this upcoming November. If an election on school bonds in Alvin ISD was held today, would you vote yes, in favor or no, against the issuance of $306 million in bonds for the construction and renovation of school buildings, and to make other improvements with the levying of a property tax? 48% 21% 27% Intensity extrapolates to 49% yes and 51% no 12% 40% 12% 28% Depends /

13 WHY AGAINST / HESITANT Q5. And in your own words, please tell me why you (would vote against / are hesitant to vote for) the bond? (n=156) 32% 27% 24% 22% Taxes Need more info Not needed / Recently passed bond Wrong Priorities / Wasteful spending

14 Q4 would you vote yes, in favor or no, against the issuance of $306 million in bonds for the construction and renovation of school buildings, and to make other improvements with the levying of a property tax? INITIAL BALLOTS Q6. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against the issuance of $217 million in school bonds to construct new schools and a Career and Technical Education Center, as well as purchase land and design for future schools? Q7. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against the issuance of $89 million in school bonds to construct a district stadium, natatorium, and satellite transportation facility as well as making renovations to Memorial Stadium and the auditorium at Alvin High School? 64% 48% 21% 27% 12% 40% 12% 28% 23% 41% 5% 31% 10% 21% 47% 19% 28% 5% 48% 18% 30% favor Depends / against favor Depends / against favor Depends / against

15 $306M Base favor / against / TOTAL YES, IN FAVOR TOTAL NO, AGAINST DEPENDS / UNSURE NET YES, IN FAVOR Base % 28% 48% 40% 12% 9% SCPARENT - Parent of AISD Student Parent % 24% 56% 32% 13% 24% Non-Parent % 32% 41% 47% 12% -6% $217M Base favor / against / TOTAL YES, IN FAVOR TOTAL NO, AGAINST DEPENDS / UNSURE NET YES, IN FAVOR Base % 21% 64% 31% 5% 34% SCPARENT - Parent of AISD Student Parent % 16% 68% 26% 5% 42% Non-Parent % 26% 61% 35% 4% 26% $89M Base favor / against / TOTAL YES, IN FAVOR TOTAL NO, AGAINST DEPENDS / UNSURE NET YES, IN FAVOR Base % 30% 47% 48% 5% -1% SCPARENT - Parent of AISD Student Parent % 24% 53% 42% 5% 10% Non-Parent % 36% 41% 53% 6% -12%

16 Q10. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against a $306 million bond proposal to construct new schools, Career and Technical Education Center, purchase land and design for future schools, as well as to construct a district stadium, natatorium, and satellite transportation facility, and renovations to Memorial Stadium and the auditorium at Alvin High School, which would increase property taxes by approximately $9.66 per month for every $100,000 of taxable property value. TAX IMPACTS Q8. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against a $217 million bond proposal to construct new schools and a Career and Technical Education Center, as well as purchase land and design for future schools, which would increase property taxes by approximately $6.08 per month for every $100,000 of taxable property value. Q9. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against an $89 million bond proposal to construct a district stadium, natatorium, and satellite transportation facility, as well as make renovations to Memorial Stadium and the auditorium at Alvin High School, which would increase property taxes by approximately $3.58 per month for every $100,000 of taxable property value. 41% 20% 3% 55% 56% 14% 41% 26% 41% 13% 50% 48% 23% 13% 35% 30% 28% 27% 21% 4% 2% favor Depends / against favor Depends / against favor Depends / against Baselice & Associates, Inc. Project# 15162

17 Q10. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against a $306 million bond proposal. which would increase property taxes by approximately $9.66 per month for every $100,000 of taxable property value. TAX IMPACTS Q8. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against a $217 million bond proposal Which would increase property taxes by approximately $6.08 per month for every $100,000 of taxable property value. Q9. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against an $89 million bond proposal which would increase property taxes by approximately $3.58 per month for every $100,000 of taxable property value. 47% 25% 49% Asked before the other two 34% 36% 17% Asked after the other two 62% 48% 41% 20% 21% 3% 55% 14% 41% 56% 26% 30% 4% 41% 13% 28% 50% 48% 23% 13% 27% 2% 35% favor Depends / against favor Depends / against favor Depends / against Baselice & Associates, Inc. Project# 15162

18 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 Q19 Q20 Q21 Q22 Q23 Q24 Q25 Q26 Q27 BOND ELEMENTS This bond package could include construction of three new elementary schools, plus replace Alvin Elementary School, as well as Favor Oppose No Diff / construct one new Junior High School and purchase land for a future elementary school and high school. 62% 35% 3% +27% Most of Alvin ISD schools are at or near capacity, and studies indicate the district will grow by more than five thousand students over the next 5 years. These new schools would allow Alvin ISD to accommodate this student growth, keep our classrooms from being over crowded and minimize purchasing temporary portable classroom buildings. 74% 24% 1% +50% This bond package could include construction of a district Career Technical Education Center that would provide training and occupational certification in the fields of health science, vet tech, building construction and welding, automotive, culinary arts, agriculture, cosmetology and barbering, computer programming, and criminal justice, which help prepare students for college or careers. 77% 22% 1% +55% Currently Alvin ISD uses an annex as a temporary facility for its Career and Tech programs, but it is not large enough to offer all the desired programs or accommodate all students who wish to participate. The new Career Tech Center would be large enough to serve all district high school students and offer a wider variety of educational programs. 73% 25% 2% +48% This bond package could include construction of a second district football stadium (Version Y: at a cost of 39 point 5 million dollars) with a capacity of ten thousand seats. 39% 58% 3% -19% The capacity of the existing stadium site has no room for expansion and is not large enough to serve multiple 6A level high school needs including athletic events, band competitions and graduations. The second stadium would truly be a district stadium that could accommodate the district's multiple 6A high schools. 52% 45% 3% +8% This bond package could include construction of an indoor swimming facility known as a natatorium to be used by all high schools in the district. 52% 46% 2% +5% Currently one of the three high schools does not have a swimming pool, and the other two only have practice pools which are not large enough to host district level meets. A district natatorium would not only provide another place for district junior high and senior high students to practice, but would include a district competition pool to enable multi team 6A level swim meets. 54% 46% * +8% Over the last five years the district has added 16 busses to its fleet and the district s transportation facility is running out of room to service all these buses. This bond package could include a satellite transportation facility located in the growth area to maintain the growing fleet as well as save costs by reducing trip distances. 67% 30% 3% +37% This bond package could include renovations to the auditorium at Alvin High School such as a larger stage and improve disability access, dressing rooms, sound and lighting, and fire sprinklers to bring it to standard with auditoriums at the district s other high schools. 64% 34% 2% +30% This bond package could include renovations to Memorial stadium such as improvements to the press box, visitor restrooms and concessions, pedestrian and sports lighting, visitor and officials locker rooms, and parking. 55% 42% 2% +13% Existing state law freezes the tax rate of homeowners sixty-five years of age or older. Senior citizens who file their exemption will not have to pay any additional property taxes associated with this bond package. 83% 13% 4% +71% An advisory committee of citizens, parents, business owners and elected officials met over the course of many months to evaluate the school district s needs, and this bond package will include recommendations from this citizen s group. 70% 24% 6% +46% Because of rising construction costs and inflation, this bond package could save taxpayers money because it is less expensive to construct and renovate facilities now than to wait and do it five or ten years from now. 61% 37% 3% +24% Some opponents say while we need some new schools, this bond package (Version X: is just too much money / Version Y: includes items that are not priorities) and that voters should reject the bond and make the school district come back next time with X: +4% a (Version X: less expensive / Version Y: better) package. Hearing this, do you favor or oppose a school bond package? 55% 40% 5% +15% Y: +24% Some opponents say we just passed a bond package of two hundred twelve million dollars less than two years ago and we don t need another one right now. Hearing this, do you favor or oppose a school bond package? 46% 50% 4% -4% Some opponents say a bond package will not only increase property taxes but will increase the student-to-debt ratio. Hearing this, do you favor or oppose a school bond package? 48% 45% 7% +3% Net Favor X: -7% Y: -30%

19 Q28. Having heard more about it...would you vote yes, in favor or no, against the issuance of $306 million in school bonds to be financed with property taxes that would include everything we have discussed today? INFORMED BALLOTS Q29. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against the issuance of $217 million in school bonds to construct new schools and a Career and Technical Education Center, as well as purchase land and design for future schools? Q30. Would you vote yes, in favor or no, against the issuance of $89 million in school bonds to construct a district stadium, natatorium, and satellite transportation facility as well as making renovations to Memorial Stadium and the auditorium at Alvin High School? 62% 48% 22% 26% 4% 49% 16% 33% 25% 38% 4% 34% 11% 23% 49% 23% 26% 2% 49% 17% 31% favor Depends / against favor Depends / against favor Depends / against

20 COMPARISON OF INITIAL & INFORMED BALLOTS ON $306M BOND Initial ballot (Q4) 27% strong 48% 12% 40% 28% strong Informed ballot (Q28) 26% 48% 4% 49% 33% Solidifiers & Switchers 37% Stayed Switched 10% 15% 33% 4% Depends / Switched Stayed

21 COMPARISON OF INITIAL & INFORMED BALLOTS ON $217M BOND Initial ballot (Q6) 41% strong 64% 5% 31% 21% strong Informed ballot (Q29) 38% 62% 4% 34% 23% Solidifiers & Switchers 55% 7% 9% 4% 25% Stayed Switched Depends / Switched Stayed

22 COMPARISON OF INITIAL & INFORMED BALLOTS ON $89M BOND Initial ballot (Q7) 28% strong 47% 5% 48% 30% strong Informed ballot (Q30) 26% 49% 2% 49% 31% Solidifiers & Switchers 39% 11% 2% 10% 38% Stayed Switched Depends / Switched Stayed

23 REGRESSION (CORRELATION) ANALYSIS Q14. Currently Alvin ISD uses an annex as a temporary facility for its Career and Tech programs, but it is not large enough to offer all the desired programs or accommodate all students who wish to participate. The new Career Tech Center would be large enough to serve all district high school students and offer a wider variety of educational programs. Solidifiers and Switchers on $306M Bond Favor 37% Stayed Favor No Diff / Oppose Oppose 47% 26% 10% 2% 15% Switched 10% 15% 4% Depends / Switched 33% Stayed Net Favor +48% Q23. An advisory committee of citizens, parents, business owners and elected officials met over the course of many months to evaluate the school district s needs, and this bond package will include recommendations from this citizen s group. Solidifiers and Switchers on $306M Bond Favor 37% Stayed Favor No Diff / 40% 30% Switched 10% 15% 4% Depends / Oppose Oppose 11% 6% 13% Switched 33% Stayed +46%

24 CALCULATING CORRELATION SCORES Q14. Currently Alvin ISD uses an annex as a temporary facility for its Career and Tech programs, but it is not large enough to offer all the desired programs or accommodate all students who wish to participate. The new Career Tech Center would be large enough to serve all district high school students and offer a wider variety of educational programs. Favor Solidifier Correlation Factor Favor No Diff / Switcher Correlation Factor Oppose X Oppose 47% 26% 10% 2% 15% Net Favor +48% = Net Favor +48% Average Correlation Score th highest score out of 17 statements Q23. An advisory committee of citizens, parents, business owners and elected officials met over the course of many months to evaluate the school district s needs, and this bond package will include recommendations from this citizen s group. Favor Solidifier Correlation Factor Favor No Diff / 40% 30% Switcher Correlation Factor Oppose X Oppose 11% 6% 13% Net Favor +46% = +46% Average Correlation Score nd highest score out of 17 statements

25 Summary of Correlation Scores The top three scores are highlighted in light blue. Correlation Scores are relative measures that should be compared within a subgroup, not compared between different subgroups. Total Sample (N=301) Parent (n=149) Non- Parent (n=152) Correlation Correlation Correlation Score Score Score Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 Q19 Q20 Q21 Q22 Q23 Q24 This bond package could include construction of three new elementary schools, plus replace Alvin Elementary School, as well as construct one new Junior High School and purchase land for a future elementary school and high school Most of Alvin ISD schools are at or near capacity, and studies indicate the district will grow by more than five thousand students over the next 5 years. These new schools would allow Alvin ISD to accommodate this student growth, keep our classrooms from being over crowded and minimize purchasing temporary portable classroom buildings This bond package could include construction of a district Career Technical Education Center that would provide training and occupational certification in the fields of health science, vet tech, building construction and welding, automotive, culinary arts, agriculture, cosmetology and barbering, computer programming, and criminal justice, which help prepare students for college or careers Currently Alvin ISD uses an annex as a temporary facility for its Career and Tech programs, but it is not large enough to offer all the desired programs or accommodate all students who wish to participate. The new Career Tech Center would be large enough to serve all district high school students and offer a wider variety of educational programs This bond package could include construction of a second district football stadium (Version Y: at a cost of 39 point 5 million dollars) with a capacity of ten thousand seats The capacity of the existing stadium site has no room for expansion and is not large enough to serve multiple 6A level high school needs including athletic events, band competitions and graduations. The second stadium would truly be a district stadium that could accommodate the district's multiple 6A high schools This bond package could include construction of an indoor swimming facility known as a natatorium to be used by all high schools in the district Currently one of the three high schools does not have a swimming pool, and the other two only have practice pools which are not large enough to host district level meets. A district natatorium would not only provide another place for district junior high and senior high students to practice, but would include a district competition pool to enable multi team 6A level swim meets Over the last five years the district has added 16 busses to its fleet and the district s transportation facility is running out of room to service all these buses. This bond package could include a satellite transportation facility located in the growth area to maintain the growing fleet as well as save costs by reducing trip distances This bond package could include renovations to the auditorium at Alvin High School such as a larger stage and improve disability access, dressing rooms, sound and lighting, and fire sprinklers to bring it to standard with auditoriums at the district s other high schools This bond package could include renovations to Memorial stadium such as improvements to the press box, visitor restrooms and concessions, pedestrian and sports lighting, visitor and officials locker rooms, and parking Existing state law freezes the tax rate of homeowners sixty-five years of age or older. Senior citizens who file their exemption will not have to pay any additional property taxes associated with this bond package An advisory committee of citizens, parents, business owners and elected officials met over the course of many months to evaluate the school district s needs, and this bond package will include recommendations from this citizen s group Because of rising construction costs and inflation, this bond package could save taxpayers money because it is less expensive to construct and renovate facilities now than to wait and do it five or ten years from now

26 CONCLUSIONS If an election on school bonds for $306M were held today, 48% would vote for and 40% would vote against while 12% are unsure. Intensity percentages extrapolate to 49% yes and 51% no, suggesting a toss up election at this time. A majority of parents are in favor, but a plurality of non-parents are opposed. This toss-up election is based on a scenario where younger voters (parents) turnout at rates similar to the bond election in 2013, however this is not a given. Two keys to success will be (1) replicating Nov 13 turnout among parents - or even increasing it, and (2) communicating bond needs to non-parents. Open-ends show leading reasons for opposition are concerns about taxes, followed by mentions that it is not needed and poor district spending. Just over one-quarter of no voters say they want more information. A majority of voters (64%) support a bond package of $217M for schools and a CTE center. Voters are split on a bond package of $89M for a stadium and other non-classroom items (47% yes / 48% no). Upon hearing tax impacts, support of each proposal decreases. The $306M prop takes a bigger hit when it follows the two separate props, suggesting voters prefer two props over one.

27 CONCLUSIONS In general, voters are split on building and making improvements to athletics facilities. A majority of voters do support building new schools to address growth, a CTE center, a satellite transportation facility, and renovating the auditorium at Alvin High School. Voters are split in their support/opposition to the bond after hearing some reasons to vote against it. While the Yes and No percentages appear virtually unchanged from the beginning to the end of the survey, analysis shows that 16%-25% of voters changed their opinion (in either direction) after hearing more about the bond. This shows information does shape opinion for some. Results indicate that passing a bond that includes athletic components will be challenging (even in a scenario where younger voters turnout at Nov 13 rates). A two-prop package should be strongly considered. Regression analysis shows it will be important to communicate that (1) the bond will not increase taxes on seniors, (2) it is based on review from a citizen s committee and (3) it will address growth and keep classrooms from getting over-crowded. Moreover, the CTE center is particularly important to non-parent bond supporters.

28 Finalize Committee Recommendations

29 Adjourn

2016 Bond Steering Committee Meeting

2016 Bond Steering Committee Meeting Meeting 1: June 23, 2016 Bond Blueprint Meeting Agenda 1. Background and Overview 2. Capital Needs 3. Debt Position 4. Voter Survey 5. Wrap up and Questions Background