Copper market trends. Jorge Cantallopts. December Logo Gobierno: 160x162px. Ministerio, Subsecretaría, Organismo, etc.

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1 Logo Gobierno: 160x162px. Ministerio, Subsecretaría, Organismo, etc.:160x145px Copper market trends Jorge Cantallopts Director of Research and Public Policies Chilean Copper Comission (Cochilco) December 2017

2 Contents 2017 COPPER MARKET ANALYSIS 2018 FORECAST MEDIUM-SCALE COPPER MINING IN CHILE Fuente: Cochilco

3 London 2017 COPPER MARKET ANALYSIS Shanghai

4 Spot Price i(us$/lb) Stocks (in thousand of ton.) 2017 copper price evolution 800 3, , , ,4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Stocks (in thousands of ton.) Spot Price Moving Average Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of London Metal Exchange, Comex and Shanghai Stock Exchange.

5 Spot Price (US$/lb) Contracts (in thousands) 2017 Investment activity: Managed Money Trader (1) and Copper price 3,2 120 Market return (%) 3,0 100 Investment ,8 80 Copper ,6 60 S&P ,4 40 Dow Jones ,2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 20 TW US Dollar Index Spot Price MMT (Contracts) Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of CFTC, Comex. Source: Reuters (1) Managed Money Trader (MMT) is the net number of copper futures. It s evolution in time implicitly reflects the investors expectation about the copper price.

6 2017 warehouse stocks in and out of Stock Exchanges Stocks in Stock Eschanges (in thousands of ton.) Stocks in and out of Stock Exchanges (in thousands of ton.) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 In Out LME COMEX SHFE Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of Reuters.

7 Spot Price (US$/lb) US Dolalr Index Trade Weighted US Dollar Index vs Copper Price 3,3 3, , ,7 2, ,3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 116 Trade Weighted US Dollar Index Spot Price Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of London Metal Exchange and St. Louis Fed In December 12-13, it s anticipated that the Federal Reserve will rise its interest rate.

8 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Quarterly GDP evolution of the world s biggest consumers Variation (%) in relation to the same month in the previous year: UNITED STATES EUROZONE CHINA (%) 3,5 3,1 3,3 2,6 6,9 6,9 2,4 2,1 6,8 6,8 0,8 1,2 1,2 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,9 2,0 6,7 6,7 6,7 In 2016 China accounted for 50% of the world s refined copper consumption, the Eurozone, 12%, and the United States, 8%. Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of Reuters and World Metal Statistics.

9 ago-16 oct-16 dic-16 feb-17 abr-17 jun-17 ago-17 oct-17 ago-16 oct-16 dic-16 feb-17 abr-17 jun-17 ago-17 ago-16 oct-16 dic-16 feb-17 abr-17 jun-17 ago-17 oct-17 Monthly Industrial Production evolution of the world s biggest consumers Variation (%) in relation to the same month in the previous year: United States Eurozone China 2,22,2 2,1 2,2 2,1 2,9 4,1 3,2 3,8 7,6 7,6 1,5 1,5 2,5 3,0-1,3-0,8-1,2-0,4 0,8 0,0 0,4 1,0 2,1 1,8 1,2 1,2 0,2 6,6 6,3 6,2 6,16,1 6,1 6,0 6,56,5 6,6 6,4 6,2 6,0 Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of Reuters.

10 2018 Forecast

11 Mine copper production Country f 2018 f Thousand MT Thousand MT Var. % Thousand MT Var. % Chile 5,553 5, % 5, % Peru 2,354 2, % 2, % China 1,851 1, % 1, % USA 1,431 1, % 1, % DR Congo 987 1, % 1, % Kazakhztan % % Australia % 1, % Zambia % % Russia % % Canada % % Mexico % % Indonesia % % Poland % % Mongolia % % Brazil % % Iran % % Rest of the World 1,627 1, % 1, % World 20,291 20, % 20, % Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of World Metal Statistics and SNL.

12 GDP growth forecast among the world s main copper consumers 6,7 6,8 6,5 3,6 3,7 3,2 2,2 2,3 2,1 1,8 1,9 1,5 1,5 1 0,7 USA Eurozone China Japan World f 2018 f China s GDP growth is expected to slow down from 6.8% (2017) to 6.5% (2018), which will translate into a lower copper demand growth from 2.2% (2017) to 2% (2018). In terms of volume, the increase will be from 11.9 million ton. (2017) to 12.1 million (2018). In the Eurozone, Japan and the USA, copper demand is expected to remain relatively stable. Source: IMF.

13 refined copper demand Country f 2018 f Thousand MT Thousand MT Var. % Thousand MT Var. % China 11,642 11, , Europe 3,781 3, , United States 1,811 1, , Japan South Korea India Turkey Taiwan Brazil Russia Rest of the world 2,105 2, , World 23,423 23, % 24, % Source: Cochilco.

14 refined copper balance In thousands of MT Var. % 2017f Var. % 2018f Var. % Mine copper production 20, , , Refined supply 23, , , Primary 20, , , Secondary 3, , , Refined demand 23, , , China 11, , , Rest of the world 11, , , Refined balance Copper Price average) Source: Cochilco.

15 Copper Price forecast F Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Spot Price (cus$/lb) Yearly Average Forecast Source: Cochilco.

16 Medium-scale copper mining in Chile

17 Medium-scale copper mining in Chile There are two categories clearly differentiated: Small medium-scale miners Large Medium-scale miners Number of companies Refined copper equivalent production capacity (thousand ton./year) Number of workers Yearly sales (in million US$) production (in thousands of ton.) Source: Cochilco s elaboration on the basis of Sernageomin.

18 Medium-scale copper mining s main production inputs in 2014 Contractor Services 40,8% Reactives, explosives, others 11,2% Labour 21,6% Water 1,1% Fuels 3,6% Worth of Supplies: US$ millions Sulfuric acid 6% Fuels 3,6% Source: Medium-Scale mining companies Survey, 2016, Cochilco.

19 Medium-scale copper mining project portfolio Project Operator Region Developing stage Projected starting year Inversión (MMUS$) Playa Verde Copper Bay Atacama Feasibility Productora Soc. Minera El Águila Ltda. Atacama Pre-Feasibility Diego de Almagro Cía. Min. Sierra Norte S.A Atacama Feasibility El Espino Pucobre Coquimbo Feasibility ,041 Source: Cochilco.

20 Logo Gobierno: 160x162px. Ministerio, Subsecretaría, Organismo, etc.:160x145px Copper market trends Jorge Cantallopts Director of Research and Public Policies Chilean Copper Comission (Cochilco) December 2017