Southern Africa regional superpower in the making. Dr Roelof Botha
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1 Southern Africa regional superpower in the making Dr Roelof Botha
2 Health sector focus
3 Composition of Gauteng health budget FY 01 by programme (total R5. billion) R b Central Hospitals: 6.5 Facilities Management:. Admin & support: 1 Training/R & D: 1 District health: 7 Provincial Hospitals: 5 Emergency services: 0.7
4 Economic classification of Gauteng health budget FY 01 (total R5. billion) R b Capex: 1.6 Salaries: 1.9 Goods & services: 7. Transfers:.5
5 Health expenditure propensity households & government 10 % Government 9 8 Households '9 '9 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
6 Per capita health expenditure 009 top-1 SSA economies South Africa Angola Nigeria Cameroon Senegal Ivory Coast Zambia Ghana Uganda Kenya Tanzania Ethiopia $
7 Per capita health expenditure 009 selected SADC countries Botswana South Africa Mauritius Namibia Angola Swaziland Lesotho Zambia Tanzania Mozambique Malawi DR Congo $
8 Per capita health expenditure 009 top-1 emerging markets Poland Brazil Argentina Saudi Arabia Turkey Mexico South Africa Russia China Thailand Indonesia India $
9 Per capita health expenditure 009 top-1 high-income economies United States Switzerland Netherlands France Germany Canada Australia Italy Japan United Kingdom Spain South Korea $ 1,000,000,000,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
10 Life expectancy at birth top-1 SSA economies Ivory Coast Ghana Tanzania Senegal Ethiopia Kenya Uganda South Africa Cameroon Nigeria Angola Zambia Years
11 Life expectancy at birth 009 selected SADC countries Mauritius Namibia Tanzania Botswana Malawi South Africa Mozambique DR Congo Angola Zambia Swaziland Lesotho Years
12 Life expectancy at birth 009 top-1 emerging markets Poland Argentina Mexico Saudi Arabia China Brazil Turkey Indonesia Thailand Russia India South Africa Years
13 Life expectancy at birth 009 top-1 high-income economies Japan Switzerland Spain Australia Netherlands Italy France Canada United Kingdom Germany United States South Korea Years
14 Access to sanitation 009 (% of population) top-1 SSA economies South Africa Angola Senegal Zambia Uganda Cameroon Nigeria Kenya Tanzania Ivory Coast Ghana Ethiopia %
15 Access to sanitation 009 (% of population) selected SADC countries Mauritius South Africa Botswana Angola Malawi Swaziland Zambia Namibia Lesotho Tanzania DR Congo Mozambique %
16 Access to sanitation 009 (% of population) top-1 emerging markets Thailand Saudi Arabia Turkey Poland Argentina Russia Mexico Brazil South Africa China Indonesia India %
17 Average annual growth in per capita health expenditure since top-1 emerging markets China Argentina Brazil Thailand Indonesia Poland India Turkey Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Mexico %
18 The Southern African economy Impact of recession on Prospects for the economy some sustained growth sectors lagging
19 Volume of manufacturing output (seasonally adjusted) (index, 005 = 100) 115 Index Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
20 Gauteng business barometer by sector % annualised change to March 11 (Sake & BoE Private Clients) Govt. & other services Transport & comm. Overall barometer Wholesale & retail trade Finance & bus. services Mining % Manufacturing Electricity & water Construction
21 Manufacturing worst 10 performers between 005 and Q1 011 (% change in output) Motor vehicles Rubber % Petroleum Furniture Wood products Non-metallic min. Publishing Clothing Machinery Textiles
22 Manufacturing best 10 performers between 005 and Q1 011 (% increase in output) Plastics Electrical machinery Chemicals Beverages Glass Paper % Metal products Vehicle parts Food Total
23 Real $/rand exchange rate & the balance on the current account 0.17 $ Rb Q1'0 Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11 Exchange rate Current account
24 Real $/rand exchange rate & the rand gold price $ R Q1'0 Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11 Exchange rate Gold price
25 Long-term bond yields US & South Africa 16 % 1 1 South Africa US '96 '98 '00 '0 '0 '06 '08 '10
26 Average annual change in real R/US$ exchange rate during key phases of currency volatility (chronological) 1980 to to to to 1997 % 1997 to to to to to
27 Reversal of convergence of the big tax revenue sources burden returns to individuals 6 % of total Individuals 8 VAT 0 Companies 1 '90 '9 '9 '96 '98 '00 '0 '0 '06 '08 '10
28 Fiscal deficits as % of GDP selected trading partners US UK Greece Japan France South Africa India Turkey Russia Brazil China Germany %
29 Total corporate tax rates selected high-income countries & emerging markets (Source: World Bank/IFC/PwC) Brazil China Germany Australia US Russia Turkey UK South Africa South Korea Chile %
30 Budget deficit/gdp ratio (with National Treasury forecast to 01) 0 % '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '1 '1 '
31 Degree of concern amongst CEOs over government response to fiscal deficit (Source: PwC Global CEO Survey) 60 % SA Global None Not significant Somewhat Extremely
32 SA banks - ratio of credit impairments to total assets.5 % '9 '9 '9 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
33 Quarterly % change in mortgage advances outstanding 7 6 % Q'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10
34 Absa average house price (medium-sized, nominal, at end of quarter) R Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
35 Total credit extension by all financial institutions..1 R trillion Q'06 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
36 Bloom time for emerging markets & SADC The recession is over prepare for higher growth Dr Roelof Botha Dr Roelof Botha
37 Sharp contrast between the GDP growth paths of Zambia and Zimbabwe (nationalisation in action) 1 $ billion Zambia 9 6 Zimbabwe 0 '9 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08
38 Economic growth expected to consolidate in highincome countries & Russia (Source: World Bank) % real GDP growth 0 - Euro Area Japan US Russia
39 Key developing regions exhibit resistance to recession & set to grow at high rates (Source: World Bank) 10 % real GDP growth Brazil Africa India China -
40 China & India ignore the recession % real GDP growth 1 China 9 India 6 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
41 Emerging markets top-ten economies (total $1. trillion) China Brazil Russia India Mexico Turkey $bn Indonesia Poland Saudi Arabia South Africa
42 Emerging markets 1 st tier group: per capita GDP 010 Czech Rep Taiwan Hungary Poland Russia Brazil Mexico South Africa $ China India 0,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 1,500 15,000 17,500
43 SA population trends & forecast (Sources: Stats SA, UNDP & post-005 extrapolation) Million '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '0 '5 '0
44 SADC population forecast to reach 0 million by Million Source: UNDP
45 Most populous developing countries & SADC population China India SADC Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Nigeria Russia Mexico Philippines Viet Nam Million
46 SADC share of world reserves for selected metals & minerals (009) Chrome ore Platinum Manganese Diamonds Gold Cobalt Vanadium Zircon Titanium Uranium Copper Coal %
47 Economic recovery: U-shaped or V-shaped?
48 Volume of production non-durables 115 Index (005= 100) Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1'11
49 Recession only lasts quarters 7 Real annualised GDP growth (%) Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'
50 Electric current generated in South Africa (index, 005 = 100) Index Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
51 Household consumption expenditure at constant 005 prices durables & semi-durables R bn (annualised) Semi-durable Durable 90 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
52 Change in inventories (constant 005 prices) 0 R bn '9 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '
53 Sharp recovery of the leading business cycle in the US 10 Index, 000 = /'06 /'06 1/'07 /'07 /'07 /'07 1/'08 /'08 /'08 /'08 1/'09 /'09 /'09 /'09 1/'10 /'10 /'10 /'
54 South Africa s leading business cycle indicator Index, 000 = Q'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10
55 Recovery of World Bank commodity price index for raw materials (000 = 100) 00 Index Q'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
56 Recovery of World Bank commodity price index for metals & minerals (000 = 100) 00 Index Q'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
57 Real retail trade sales (index, 008 = 100) 105 Index Q'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
58 Number of new vehicles sold (index, 000 = 100) 0 00 Index Q'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
59 JSE all share index ( 000).5 Index Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
60 Conclusion - Convergence of structural & cyclical trends The recession is over prepare for higher growth Dr Roelof Botha
61 Total employment in SA (Source: Stats SA Quarterly Labour Force Survey) Q'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11
62 Real non-agricultural output growth by sector 1st quarter 011 (annualised) Mining Manufacturing Trade & catering Transport & comm. Total Other services % Government Finance & bus. Services Electricity & water Construction 0 1
63 Overall business barometer four largest Provinces Source: Sake/BOE Private Clients 10 Index (005 = 100) March'09 March'10 March' Gauteng KwaZulu/Natal Western Cape Eastern Cape
64 Progress with meeting basic needs.9 million houses 1000 new health clinics Access to clean water for 10 million people New sanitation facilities for 7 million people.5 million new electricity connections Free education Redistribution of million hectares of land Primary School Nutrition Programme for 5 million children 1 million new social grant beneficiaries (BIG?)
65 Remarkable metal commodity price recovery the leaders (% increase low to nd quarter 011) Silver Tin Copper Nickel WB metals index Lead Platinum % Aluminum Zinc Gold
66 Growth in tourist arrivals from selected regions June 009 to June Number ( 000) June '09 June ' Australia & Middle East Asia Central & South America North America
67 Consumer & producer price trends 9 6 % PPI CPI 0 - Aug'09 Oct Dec Feb'10 April June Aug Oct Dec Feb'11 April -6
68 The prime overdraft rate peaks & troughs since democracy 5 % Apr '9 May'96 Mar '98 Aug '98 Sep '01 Sep '0 Apr '05 Jun '08 Jan '11
69 Capital expenditure by SA Government as % of GDP returns to growth mode 8 % 6 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
70 Private sector capital expenditure continues to anticipate a rise in demand % '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
71 Medium-term growth prospects buoyed by rise in capital formation/gdp ratio % '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
72 Real GDP forecast to return swiftly to pre-recession growth trajectory 6 5 % '00 '01 '0 '0 '0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 -
73 New record high for real disposable income per capita of households (at constant 010 prices) R '90 '9 '9 '96 '98 '00 '0 '0 '06 '08 '10 Q1'11
74 % of CEOs that regard the following selection of potential business threats as their most significant risk (Source: PwC) 60 % SA Global Skills Energy costs Shift in demand Tax burden Supply chain security
75 Key drivers of future healthcare sector activity Provision of clean water & sanitation Improvements to education system NHI likely to benefit generic pharmaceuticals SA population to reach 57 million in 00 SADC population to reach 0 million in 00 Sustained economic growth million new jobs by 00 Further structural increase in per capita income Broadening of the tax base
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