Economic Status and Policies

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Jasmine Griffith
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of Foreign Economic Relations The Development Research Center of the State Council of

1 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Economic Status and Policies Zhao Jinping Dept. of Foreign Economic Relations The Development Research Center of the State Council of China (DRC) Contents Features of modern world economy Outlook of China economy in 212 Enterprises strategies based on forecasts of economic policies 1

2 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) World Economy Will Continue to Recover Slowly in 212 International organizations now expect a slower economic growth Forecast (Sep and Nov 211) Quarterly Growth Rate (%) World Total China Japan Eurozone The US Eurozone The US Japan Uncertainties with World Demand Growth Growth rate of international trade fell remarkably PMI by JPMorgan (%) World Output World Orders Boundary 28 8 Jun n 29 9 Jun n 21 Jun Jun Imp. Growth Y-o-Y(%) + The US Eurozone Japan J u n 2 1 J u n J u n 2

3 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Debt Crisis the Greatest Threat to Economy Recovery A sharp increase in matured debts of the four south European countries in Q1 and Q3 Greece Spain Italy Portugal Dec Jan 212 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Perspective of World Economy Slow recovery, possible slight improvement in Q4 Mild recovery in the US due to sluggish consumption Debt crisis goes on in the Eurozone. Economic recession unavoidable Reconstruction in Japan will drive economy, but influence from deflation will persist Danger of slower economic growth due to hampered export of emerging economies More challengers facing China economy from a more complicated world economic environment 3

4 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Contents Features of modern world economy Outlook of China economy in 212 Enterprises strategies based on forecasts of economic policies Outlook of China economy in 212 GDP expected to grow by % Q u arte rly G D P G row th of 16 C hina (%) CPI Growth Y-o-Y(%) Y Accumulated IAV Growth Y-o-Y(%) 2 Growth of Housing Price (%)

5 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Export Growth Slows down since H2 211 Trade expected to go more balanced Trade balance(billion $) Exp. Growth(%) Jun Domestic demand Expected to Go More Volatile Overseas demand remains less optimistic China PMI (%) China PMI (%) PMI of Manufacturing Industry Production Index New Orders Boundary 5 New Export Orders Import Index Boundary

6 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Industries with Fastest Growth in Sales Value during Jan-May 212 Mainly Final Consumption Goods Falls of Sales Value Growth Woodware Agricultural Drinks Foods Medicine Stationery Instrument Furniture Leather Rubber Plastics tobacco Handcraft Paper Print media Non-ferrous Apparel Chemicals Manufacturing Growth of Sales Value(%) Manufacturing Industries with the Sharpest Fall in Sales Value during Jan-May 212 Mainly Raw Material Industries Falls of Sales Value Growth (%) Falls of Export Value Growth (%) Nonmetall mineral Chemical fiber Non-ferros metal Chemical goods Metal products Special equipment Handcraft General equipments Oil refinery Ferros metal Manufacturing

7 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) In 212, Privately-owned Enterprises Perform Better Shares of Export-oriented Firms Shrink Slightly Manufacturing Enterprise G row th in M anufacturing Industry during Jan-M M ar 212(% ) China-funded Small Enterprise Export Value Sales Value Small Enterprise Shares of Different Kinds of Enterprises (%) Foreignfunded Chinafunded Privatelyowned Foreignfunded Privatelyowned Jan-Mar 211 Jan-Mar Fast Development of Manufacturing Industries in Center and Western China during Jan-May 212 Faster Transfer of Manufacturing from East to Mid-West Growth in Manufacturing Industry (%) 65 West China 17 Share of Regions in 212 (%) Export Value Sales Value Central China West China Bohai Rim Yangtze River Delta Export Value Sales Value Central China Bohai Rim Pearl River Delta Yangtze River Delta Total Pearl River Delta

8 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Manufacturing Industries in Center and Western China are More Export-Dependent Export Orders Transferring from East to Mid-West Shares in Manufacturing Industry by Regions (%) West China Central China Bohai Rim Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta Export Value Sales Value West China Central China Bohai Rim Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta Export Dependent Rate by Regions (%) Total Jan-May 211 Jan-May Sales of Chemical Fibers See Great Impact during Jan-May 212, in Both Domestic and Export Markets Sales Value Growth of Manufacturing Industry (%) Jan-May 212 Jan-May 211 Manufacturing Chemical Fiber Chemicals Oil Refinery Apparel Textile Export Value Growth of Manufacturing Industry (%) Jan-May 212 Jan-May 211 Manufacturing Chemical Fiber Chemicals Oil Refinery Apparel Textile

9 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Forecasts of China Economy Growth rate above 8% expected, driven by domestic demand Export growth slowing down remarkably due to weak overseas demand Inflation pressure will remain Higher employing costs and short of workers Faster transfer of manufacturing from eastern China to mid-west regions. Contents Features of modern world economy Outlook of China economy in 212 Enterprises strategies based on forecasts of economic policies 9

10 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Higher Growth of Currency Supply and Loan Fine tuning of monetary policies makes achievements Growth of Currency Supply Y-O-Y (%) M2 4 Increase of Loans Y-O-Y (%) M 4 Gro wth of Funds outsta nding for 35 for eign e xchange(%) RMB Exchange Rate Goes Stable Raise of composite effective exchange rate got restrained 15 Nominal Rate of Exchange Rate (RMB vs USD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (61 countries) Real Effective Exchange Rate (61 countries)

11 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Comparatively Stable Exchange Rate in 212 Price control policies proved to be successful Changes of composite effective exchange rate of major emerging economies in 211(%) Changes of composite effective exchange rate of major emerging economies in Jan-Apr 212 (%) Jan-Jun 211 Jul-Dec 211 Turkey 5.58 China 8.9 South Africa Chile 5.34 Singapore 2.6 Mexico 4.24 Chinese Taibei India 3.36 South Korea -3.7 Philipines Malasia Russia Russia 2 Brazil Thailand.86 India -9.9 South Korea China Mexico Brazil -.83 South Africa Indonesia Advices from Enterprises (based on a survey with 5 Chinese enterprises on 11 June) A d vices for G overnm e nts from E nte rprises(% ) Efficiently implementing existing foreign trading policies Stabilizing RMB exchange rate Enhancing financial guarantee services Accelerate the progress of export tariff rebate Better response to trade friction Stabilizing prices Preventing labor costs rising too fast Others Increasing loans Small Enterprises All

12 China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Short-and-long-term Strategies (based on a survey with 5 Chinese enterprises on 11 June) Short-term Strategies (%) Long-term Strategies (%) New products Selling to domestic market Price cut Output-cut Layoff Small enterprises All Diversified market OBM More investment in R&D Production shifted to inland China Cooperate with industry leaders Replace human labors with machines Production shifted to overseas regions Others Small enterprises All Thank You! Shanghai/21 June

Revised October 17, 2016

Revised October 17, 2016 60 ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (September 2015 September 2016) 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 Sept-15 Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Purchasing