The Brazilian boom is it happening and what will it mean for copper industry growth in this newly industrializing economy?

Transcription

1 The Brazilian boom is it happening and what will it mean for copper industry growth in this newly industrializing economy? Presented by Paranapanema S.A. Brazil Mario L. Lorencatto

2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction to Paranapanema 2. Economic Scenario in Brazil 3. Brazilian Copper Industry 4. Prospects for the Copper Business in Brazil 5. Paranapanema s Investment Program & Upcoming Business Opportunities 6. Contact Details 2

3 INTRODUCTION TO PARANAPANEMA 3

4 2,512 3,192 4,098 4,026 Largest non-integrated producer of refined copper in Brazil: Production capacity: 280,000 t/yr; 98% of total domestic production; 40% of total consumption; 650,000 t/yr. of suphuric acid; Operates other 3 plants producing copper & alloys products (rolled, bars, drawn wires, tubes and fittings): Production capacity being raised from 72,000 to 130,000 t/yr.; 41% share of the domestic market; Net Revenues (R$ MLN) Employs 3,500 people; Market maker of the local copper scrap segment, controlling 65% of the local volume;

5 Compelling case of business turnaround new management and improved results; Focus on the copper business retain its leadership position; Adjusted EBITDA (R$ MLN) Sold its non-copper businesses: fertilizer, tin mining, zinc semi manufactured, mining rights; CAPEX program of $600MLN in 2011/14; Social/environmental responsability; Shares listed in the Novo Mercado of BM&FBOVESPA 53% of capital owned by Caixa, PREVI and PETROS: Shares price up by 170% since Jun/12. 5

6 6

7 7 ECONOMIC SCENARIO IN BRAZIL

8 Economic Scenario in Brazil Policy Focus: economic growth, employment and social development; Anticyclical economic measures: Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies; Public investments in infrastructure; Less market driven vs. government interventions; The country s basic infrastructure as bottlenecks to higher growth; Increased protective barriers on foreign trade; Domestic inflation projected at 5.74% - above the 4.5% target; The Brazilian Real expected to trade within vs. the US Dollar; Government holds political majority through a diverse group of parties kickoff of the 2014 elections for the Federal and States administrations. 8

9 GDP of US$ 2.5 TLN World s 7th largest GDP by sector Population: 198MLN 5.2% unemployment Sources: IBGE/IMF 9 9

10 % of GDP 50% 47% 40% 36% 34% 30% 29% 26% 26% 26% 25% 24% 22% 21% 21% 20% 10% 0% Source: International Monetary Fund 10 10

11 Billion US$ F Source: IMF, Bloomberg, IBGE, Haver and Itaú 11 11

12 PAC was introduced in 2007 to promote the planning and execution of investments linked to social and urban infrastructure, logistics and energy, contributing to rapid and sustainable development. PAC 1 Investments = US$ BLN Focus on infrastructure projects: stadiums, urban mobility, ports and airports and services such as security, IT, electric power and turism. Investments = US$ BLN PAC 2 The investments concentrate on the infrastructure projects to improve the sport facilities, urban mobility and housing. Source: Brazilian Government

13 Brazil will host two of the world s major sport events: 2014 FIFA World Cup Investments = US$ 13.1 BLN Focus on infrastructure projects: stadiums, ports and airports upgrading, urban mobility and services as security, IT, electric power and turism The Olympic and Paralympic Games Investments = US$ 6.3 BLN The investments are concentrated on the infrastructure projects, construction works to improve the sport facilities, urban mobility and accomodation. Sources: Brazilian Government 13 13

14 THE BRAZILIAN COPPER INDUSTRY 14 14

15 Mining Mineração Caraíba/Glencore Vale Yamana Gold Semi-manufactured Paranapanema Termomecânica Cecil Ibrame Refining Paranapanema Mineração Caraíba/Glencore Vale Wire-rod 11 out of the 17 established companies also manufacture wires and cables. Wires and cables: More than 100 companies several including international companies such as Commscope, Draka- Telcon, Furukawa, General Cable, Phelps Dodge, Nexans and Prysmian. Source: Sindicel and ABC 15 15

16 The Brazilian copper chain reached total production of 805 th tons (contained copper) in Thousand tons 1,139 Based on the investments for the next years, the production could reach 1,139 th tons in Wires and Cables Semi-manufactured Cathode Concentrate Source: Sindicel and ABC 16 16

17 FORECAST REGIONS (th t) Africa North America LATAM Asia Europe Middle East Oceania Total Brazil MINE PRODUCTION REFINED PRODUCTION REFINED USAGE ,031 1,205 1,355 1,447 1,713 2,005 2, ,181 1,435 1, ,952 1,695 1,643 1,740 1,863 2,022 2,080 1,710 1,496 1,405 1,280 1,370 1,451 1,466 2,188 1,764 1,897 1,957 1,929 1,917 1,904 7,240 7,271 7,290 7,305 8,194 8,745 9,123 4,064 4,197 4,135 4,178 4,367 4,430 4, ,699 2,998 3,084 2,858 3,094 3,384 3,621 7,565 7,787 8,298 8,789 10,076 11,475 12,552 9,183 10,035 11,269 11,729 12,437 13,160 13,918 1,416 1,434 1,463 1,500 1,569 1,609 1,660 3,490 3,380 3,596 3,687 3,821 3,968 4,003 4,482 3,536 3,861 3,994 3,980 4,064 4, ,012 1,061 1,034 1,012 1,021 1,060 1,113 1,121 1, ,705 15,958 16,194 16,279 17,928 19,332 20,190 18,260 18,306 19,009 19,697 21,597 23,534 24,810 17,929 17,301 19,264 19,931 20,670 21,578 22, Brazilian Copper Concentrate Production (th t) Mines Chapada Jaguari Salobo Sossego Total Brazil Chinese GDP is 3.6x the Brazilian GDP China consumes 20x more copper than Brazil Source: Brook Hunt 17 17

18 Refined Copper - World Consumption Copper Concentrate - World Production Saudi Arabia 1% Thailand 1% Poland 1% Mexico 1% Turkey 2% Brazil 2% Taiwan 2% India 3% Russia 4% Others 25% South Korea 4% Japan 5% USA 9% China 40% Mexico 3% Congo 3% Canada 3% Indonesia 3% Zambia 4% Kazakhstan 2% Russia 4% Poland 3% Iran 2% Brazil 1% Australia 6% Others 10% USA 7% Peru 8% Chile 33% China 8% Source: Sindicel 18 18

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20 CAGR = 7.1 % 21 21

21 Complete Line Products (th t) Complete Line Products (th t) Others % Paranapanema % CAGR = 7.1 % Others % Paranapanema % Total = th t Imports % Total = th t Imports % Tubes and Alloys (th t) Tubes and Alloys (th t) Others % Imports % Paranapanema % CAGR = 3.6 % Others % Imports % Paranapanema % Total = 30.8 th t Source: Paranapanema s estimate Total = 35.5 th t 22 22

22 CAGR = 2.5 % 23 23

23 PROSPECTS FOR THE COPPER SECTOR IN BRAZIL 24 24

24 Growth in refined copper usage: Brazil Global % 4.4% % 4.9% Recovery in the domestic industrial production; Infrastructure projects and favorable momentum in civil construction; Weaker local currency; Reduction in the VAT incentives to imported products; Increased import duties on copper tubes: from 15% to 25%; Import substitution growth opportunities for the local producers; Sharp cuts in electricity prices; 25 25

25 Tax Incentive Programs: Reintegra and Desenvolve ; Reduction of payroll taxes; Attractive long term financing from public Development Banks; Growing threat of substituting copper in some applications: PVC tubes in civil construction; Aluminum in the cable & wires and auto segments; Development and expansion of new applications for copper; New Regulations for mining activities: tougher to obtain mining licenses; higher royalties; more strict environmental protection; incentives to vertical integration; Excess capacity: industry consolidation semi-manufactured segment

26 PARANAPANEMA S INVESTMENT PROGRAM 2011/

27 CAPEX Projects (Revised in Feb., 2013) Total I. Expansion and upgrade of the refined copper plant Update and expansion of refined copper plant: Cu production from 220 to 280 thousand t /yr; Production cost from $629/t to $432/t; Use of scrap from 20% to 24%; Sulphuric acid from 572 to 650 thousand t/yr. New precious metals refinery: 2,4 t/yr of gold, 33,5 t/yr of silver, platinum and selenium. $8MLN $156MLN $32MLN $ 25MLN $196MLN $ 25MLN Enviromental Improvement Projects. $14MLN $4MLN $18MLN II. Expansion and update of the plants of semielaborated products New plant of seamless copper tubes: from 18 to 36 thousand t/yr cast & roll. Expansion of rolled copper plant (cold rolling process) from 28 to 55 thousand t/yr. Expansion of rolled copper plant (hot rolling process) from 60 to 200 thousand t/yr. $11MLN $48MLN $27MLN $77MLN $85MLN $86MLN $77MLN $85MLN Total I and II $19MLN $204MLN $73MLN $191MLN $487MLN III. Other projects and maintenance $51MLN $13MLN $9MLN $40MLN $113MLN Total I, II and III $70MLN $217MLN $82MLN $231MLN $600MLN 28

28 PARANAPANEMA S UPCOMING BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES 29 29

29 Further expand production capacity of refined copper: From 280 to 320 thousand t/yr. up to 69% of the local consumption; Required investment: $35MLN plus additional working capital; Expanding exports sales of copper tubes and laminated products: Paranapanema s production capacity will represent about 83% and 124% of the domestic consumption, respectively; New products niche opportunities in semi-manufactured; Vertical Integration: participation in the copper mining segment: Focus on opportunities within Brazil; Leverage on the company s strategic advantages: logistic/smelter; Paranapanema will not develop mining operations capability; Preference for projects in advanced stages of development; Medium and small size deposits 300 to 400 thousand t; Secure up to 30% equity ownership and 100% of the offtaking; Increase domestic sourcing of copper concentrate from 23% to 70%

30 Edson Monteiro Machado President/VP Operations Tel / Mário L. Lorencatto CFO and Investor Relations Director Tel /7904/ José Rodolfo Montemurro Investor Relations Dept. Tel /

31 THANK YOU! 32 32