WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK. Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD

Transcription

1 WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD

2 Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use Uneven access of the world s population to modern energy Investment in energy-supply infrastructure

3 Global Energy Investment Outlook

4 World Energy Investment Total investment: 16 trillion dollars E&D 72% 46% Power generation Refining Other 13% 15% Oil 19% Electricity 60% 54% T&D E&D LNG Chain T&D and Storage 55% 8% 37% Gas 19% Coal 2% 88% 12% Mining Shipping and ports Production accounts for the majority of investment in the supply chain except for electricity

5 Energy Investment by Region ,000 cumulative investment (billion dollars 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, share in global investment (%) 0 OECD North America China OECD Europe Other Asia Africa Russia Middle East OECD Pacific Other Latin America India Other transition economies Brazil 0 OECD Europe will account for around 15% of global energy investment needs of $16 trillion

6 Energy Investment Share in GDP Russia Africa Other transition economies Middle East China India Other Asia Latin America OECD World average per cent The share of energy investment in the economy is much higher in developing countries and the transition economies than in the OECD

7 Oil Investment Outlook

8 Oil Investment by Region Asia Latin America Africa Transition economies Middle East OECD billion dollars per year Exploration & development Non-conventional oil Refineries Most investment outside the OECD will be needed in the Middle East and the transition economies mainly in the upstream

9 Access to Oil Reserves Concession 21% Iraq 10% National companies only (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Mexico) 35% Production sharing 12% Limited access - National companies 22% 1,032 billion barrels Access to much of the world s remaining oil reserves is restricted

10 Restricted Middle East Oil Investment Scenario OPEC Middle East Share in Global Oil Supply per cent Restricted Investment Scenario Reference Scenario OPEC Middle East s share of global oil production is assumed to remain flat at under 30% in Restricted Investment Scenario

11 Oil Concluding Remarks Global investment of $3 trillion needed in Investment more sensitive to decline rate than rate of demand growth most investment needed just to maintain current production level Major uncertainties about opportunities and incentives to invest, notably Access to reserves and production policies OPEC (and Iraq) Oil prices Production costs and investment risks Lower investment in Middle East oil would raise global investment needs, lower OPEC revenues & harm global economy Enhanced consumer-producer dialogue to help facilitate capital flows

12 Gas Investment Outlook

13 Gas E&D Investment & Incremental Production Africa 9% Othe 20% E&D Investment OECD 48% Other 32% Incremental Production OECD 10% Transition economies 18% Middle East 8% Transition economies 15% Africa 17% $ 1.7 trillion 2,767 bcm Middle East 23% OECD countries will account for almost half total upstream gas investment, but only 10% of additional production

14 Net Inter-regional Trade & Production bcm 5,400 4,800 4,200 3,600 3,000 2,400 1,800 1, Production LNG trade Pipeline trade A growing share of gas will be traded between regions, much of it in the form of LNG

15 Indicative LNG Unit Capital Cost dollars per tonne of capacity Mid-1990s Liquefaction Shipping Regasification The recent dramatic fall in LNG costs is expected to continue

16 Gas Investment Uncertainties Balance of risk and return price is key Complexity of financing very large-scale projects especially in developing countries Access to reserves and fiscal regime most new investment will be private Impact of market reforms on investment risk long-term contracts will remain necessary These factors could lead to shortfall in investment, supply bottlenecks and higher prices in some cases

17 Coal Investment Outlook

18 Coal Industry Investment Mining by region OECD $128.1 Shipping $33.9 Ports $12.9 Mining $351.0 Total investment: $ billion China $120.6 Transition economies $32.0 Other Developing countries $70.3 Almost all coal investment will be for mining a third of it in China alone

19 Electricity Investment Outlook

20 World Electricity Sector Investment ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 billion dollars 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Power generation (new and refurbishment) Transmission Distribution Transmission and distribution networks will account for well over half of electricity-sector investment

21 Electricity Sector Investment by Region ,500 2,000 billion dollars 1,500 1, China Other Latin Africa Middle US and European OECD Other Russia Rest of Asia America East Canada Union Pacific OECD TE China will need more electricity investment than any other country or region

22 OECD Power Sector Investment billion dollars 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Power generation (new and refurbishment) Transmission Distribution Power generation will absorb a growing share of OECD electricity-sector investment

23 140 Age of Installed Capacity in EU GW Oil Gas Coal Uranium 20 0 < 10 years years years > 30 years Europe's power plants are ageing: half current capacity - mostly coal-fired - could be retired by 2030

24 Electricity Investment Challenges in OECD $4 trillion needed ( ) Blackouts have underscored reliability needs Under-investment in transmission in some countries Approvals remain a key barrier to investment Distributed generation will help Will save in transmission investment Already important in developing countries with unreliable central systems Competition is changing investment Timing, technology choice Heavier use of transmission issue of peak load

25 Power Sector Investment in Developing Countries 2,500 2,000 billion dollars 1,500 1, Power generation (new and refurbishment) Transmission Distribution Investment in developing countries should rise over time but there is no guarantee that it will be forthcoming

26 Electricity Investment as Share of GDP 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% OECD China India Indonesia Russia Brazil Africa Medium-term electricity sector investment needs will increase relative to GDP in almost all non-oecd regions

27 Power Generation Capacity Additions in Developing Countries ,200 1, GW Developing countries will need to add increasing amounts of new generating capacity over the next three decades

28 China Electricity Investment billion dollars per year % 37% 3% 60% 10 7% 0 69% Power generation & transmission Refurbishment Distribution China s electricity investment needs will increase sharply in the coming decades especially for transmission & distribution

29 Ratio of China Electricity Sector Investment to GDP 3 share of electricity investments in GDP (%) though investment needs will decline relative to GDP as its economy matures

30 Electricity Revenue and Return on Capital of Indian SEBs Return on capital Revenue as % of cost The desperate financial straits of Indian state electricity boards underlines the urgent need for pricing reform

31 Power Sector Private Investment in Developing Countries billion dollars Developing countries will need to reverse the slump in private capital flows if projected investment is to be forthcoming

32 Universal Electricity Access Scenario

33 Investment to Ensure Universal Electricity Access 2, ,500 billion dollars 1, China South Asia Africa East Asia Latin America Reference Scenario Electrification Scenario Middle East More than $660 billion is needed to supply basic electricity services to the world s very poor mainly in Africa and South Asia

34 Additional Investment in Universal Electricity Access Scenario billion dollars Africa South Asia East Asia Latin America Middle East Grid extension Mini-grid Autonomous off-grid Most investment needed for grid extensions which will be more easily financed than mini-grid and off-grid options

35 Electricity Investment Challenges in Developing Countries Almost $6 trillion needed ( ) far more than in past 3 decades Financing this will be challenging especially in Africa and India Realising this investment will call for More rigorous sector reforms notably more cost-reflective pricing and improved collection More stable and predictable investment regimes Better corporate governance Development of domestic financial markets Stronger incentives for private and foreign investors

36 Electricity Concluding Remarks Electricity sector will dominate energy investment Almost $10 billion needed in 3 decades to 2030 More than half electricity investment will go to transmission & distribution networks Biggest uncertainty in OECD countries concerns impact of market reforms on investment risks and returns especially for reserve and peak capacity Financing electricity investment in non-oecd countries is greatest challenge pricing reform is fundamental to attracting private capital

37 Energy Investment Challenge Total investment requirements are modest relative to world GDP, but challenge differs by region / fuel Energy and financial resources are sufficient, but increasing competition for capital and higher risk Capital needs are largest for electricity Half total energy investment is needed in developing countries where financing will be hardest Policymakers need to ensure basic principles of good governance are applied and respected including cost-reflective pricing Production accounts for the bulk of investment more than half just to replace old capacity