Monthly Rolling Economic Electronic Presentation August 2017

Transcription

1 CHILE AT A GLANCE Monthly Rolling Economic Electronic Presentation August 2017

2 CURRENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

3 GDP GROWTH (% over same quarter previous year) 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 QIV 2014 QI 2015 QII 2015 QIII 2015 QIV 2015 QI 2016 QII 2016 QIII 2016 QIV 2016 QIV 2017 QIV 2017 QIV 2014 QI 2015 QII 2015 QIII 2015 QIV 2015 Q I 2016 QII 2016 QIII 2016 QIV 2016 QI 2017 QII Source: Central Bank of Chile

4 4 INFLATION (%) 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0-0,5 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Monthly variation 12-monthly variation Monthly variation 12-monthly variation Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Source: National Statistics Institute (INE)

5 UNEMPLOYMENT (3-month rolling average,%) 7,2 7 6,8 6,6 6,4 6,2 6 5,8 5,6 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun UNEMPLOYMENT (3-month rolling average, %) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: National Statistics Institute (INE).

6 DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES (% annual rate, nominal) Sep Oct Nov 2016 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2017 Jun Jul Aug Lending rate * Reference rate Borrowing rate * Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Reference rate Lending rate * Borrowing rate * *Loan/deposits with maturity of 1-3 years. Source: Central Bank of Chile

7 FISCAL BALANCE (% of GDP) * * ,7-3,1 * Estimated by Finance Ministry, March Source: Ministry of Finance

8 25 SELECTIVE SHARE PRICE INDEX (IPSA) (%) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Monthly variation 12-monthly variation Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Monthly variation monthly variation Source: Santiago Stock Exchange

9 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (monthly, US$ million) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Exports Imports Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Exports 4,837 4,751 4,530 5,104 6,224 5,534 4,716 5,504 5,109 5,621 5,259 5,222 Imports 5,178 4,685 4,765 5,060 4,997 4,814 4,480 5,214 4,512 4,898 5,200 4,992 Source: Central Bank of Chile

10 COPPER PRICE (LME, monthly average, US$/lb) 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June June Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Source: Cochilco

11 QUARTERLY TRADE BALANCE, (US$ million) Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II 2, ,167 2,385 2,263-1, ,154 1, ,412 1,246 1,288 Source: Central Bank of Chile

12 EXCHANGE RATE (Monthly average, pesos/us$) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July EXCHANGE RATE (Monthly average, pesos/us$) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Source: Central Bank of Chile

13 SUMMARY OF CENTRAL BANK FORECASTS, 2017 GDP growth (%) Inflation (year-end, %) 2.9 Trade balance (year-end, US$ million) 8,000 Copper price (annual average, US$/lb) 2.55 Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.0 Source: Central Bank, Monetary Policy Report, June 2017.

14 SUMMARY OF PRIVATE FORECASTS, 2017* GDP growth (annual, %) 1.4 Inflation (annual, %) 2.5 Reference interest rate (annual nominal %, year-end) 2.25 Exchange rate (pesos/dollar, 2017) 665 * Average private forecasts as surveyed by Central Bank, August 2017.

15 CHILE AT A GLANCE (BACKGROUND)

16 GEOGRAPHY Four main geographic areas with different economic activities: North (Atacama Desert): mining, principally copper and nitrates Central Valley, with Santiago (capital and seat of government) and Valparaíso (port and seat of Congress): manufacturing, agriculture, wine production and agribusiness South: forestry, salmon farming, fishing, agriculture and, in Concepción, petrochemicals and steel production Fjords and Tierra del Fuego: tourism, agriculture, fishing, gas and oil production, coal mining.

17 THE CHILEANS Population: 17.8 million Language: Spanish Literacy: 97.8% Poverty: 11.7% (2015) Life expectancy: 78.5 years Indigenous population: 9.1%

18 THE ECONOMY GDP per capita (PPP) 2015 = US$22,316* Labour force = 8.5 million GDP Growth, (%) * Estimated by IMF, September 2016.

19 MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK MONETARY POLICY Autonomous Central Bank, responsible for means of payment and price level Inflation-targeting policy: 2%-4% over 24-month horizon Overnight interest rate set in nominal terms at monthly monetary policy meeting.

20 MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FISCAL POLICY Structural fiscal rule in force since 2001 Government spending tied to structural (noncyclical) income Non-cyclical income calculated on basis of trend growth and expected copper price over next ten years (both estimated by committee of independent experts).

21 MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Floating exchange rate since 1999 Central Bank retains right to intervene directly in foreign currency market in case of severe fluctuations No capital controls.

22 MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK TRADE POLICY Open economy 26 trade agreements with 64 countries, including Free Trade Agreements with main trading partners Flat-rate tariff of 6% on imports from other countries.

23 MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FDI POLICY DL 600 Foreign Investment Statute: investors sign individual contract with state of Chile * Semi-integrated tax system: Corporate tax serves as credit against withholding tax Double taxation avoidance agreements in force with 25 countries. * Will be phased out as from 1 January 2016.

24 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS UN Human Development Report Norway 2 Australia 2 Switzerland 16 United Kingdom 27 Spain 42 Chile 45 Argentina 71 Venezuela 77 Mexico

25 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS World Competitiveness Yearbook Hong Kong 2 Switzerland 3 Singapore 19 United Kingdom 35 Chile 48 Mexico 55 Peru 61 Brazil Source: Institute for Management Development

26 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS Global Competitiveness Report Switzerland 2 Singapore 3 United States 7 United Kingdom 8 Japan 32 Spain 33 Chile 51 Mexico 67 Peru 81 Brazil Source: World Economic Forum

27 SOVEREIGN RISK Chile s Sovereign Ratings (August 2017) Fitch Ratings Standard & Poor s Moody s A (stable) A+ (stable) Aa3 (stable)

28 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports, (US$ billion) Source: Central Bank of Chile Exports, (US$ billion) Copper Total

29 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Imports, (US$ billion) Consumer goods Oil Non-oil inputs Capital goods Consumer goods Oil & Other fuels Non-oil inputs Capital goods Total * Source: Central Bank of Chile. *FOB; other figures CIF.

30 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Main Trading Partners, 2016 Exports US$ billion Imports US$ billion China 17.1 China 14.1 United States 8.4 United States 10.2 Japan 5.2 Brazil 4.7 South Korea 4.1 Argentina 2.5 Source: Central Bank of Chile

31 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Chile-UK Trade (US$ million) Exports to UK Imports from UK , , Source: Central Bank of Chile

32 Feedback / Comments Please contact isabel.juppet@britcham.cl