Victoria University. David Gruen Australian Treasury 23 February Is the resources boom an example of Dutch

Transcription

1 The resources boom and structural change in the Australian economy Victoria University David Gruen Australian Treasury February Outline The resources boom Structural change in the Australian traded sector Policy Responses Is the resources boom an example of Dutch disease?

2 Terms of trade (Index 9- to 999- = ) Index Index -year centered moving average Trend: to Treasury forecasts/ projections Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6., RBA and Treasury. Australia s export shares 999- (Value) Rest of World Japan 7% US % 6% Korea % China % India Source: ABS Catalogue Number 68..

3 Australia s export shares (Value) Rest of World Japan Rest of World Japan 7% % US 6% US % 7% Korea 6% Korea % China % India 8% % China India Source: ABS Catalogue Number 68.. GDP per capita (Per cent of OECD- average) Per cent Per cent Australia Japan South Korea Malaysia China India Note: OECD- = Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, US and Canada. Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database and Treasury.

4 Urban population shares Per cent Per cent South Korea Japan Thailand Malaysia India China Projections Source: United Nations population database. Consumption per capita Aluminium Kilogram Kilogram 7 Finished steel Kilogram Kilogram China India Japan United States Source: ABARE, Steel Statistics Yearbooks and Treasury.

5 Indicative life of Australia s non-renewable resource stocks Years Bauxite Black coal Copper *Crude oil Gold Iron ore *Natural Gas Nickel Manganese Uranium Zinc Years Note: Stock resources at end of 9 and based on 9 production. * indicates stock resources at end of 8 and based on 8 production. Source: Geoscience Australia. Australian real exchange rate (Post-float average = ) Index Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

6 , Australian employment and investment Persons (') Employment Persons ('), 6 Investment as a share of GDP Per cent Per cent 6,, Mining and Construction Mining and Construction,,,, Manufacturing Manufacturing May- Nov- May-7 Nov Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers 6., 6., and Treasury. Net tourism and the exchange rate TWI Trade Weighted Index (LHS - Inverted) ' Short-term overseas arrivals minus departures, monthly (RHS) - - Oct-99 Oct-99 Oct-996 Oct-998 Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct-6 Oct-8 Oct- Source: ABS cat. no.. and RBA. 6

7 Three speed economy employment share by industry Per cent Per cent Services (LHS) 7 Manufacturing (RHS) 7 Mining and construction (RHS) 6 Agriculture, forestry and fishing (RHS) Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury Employment change by industry (- to 9-) Health care and social assistance (.%) Construction (.%) Professional, scientific and technical services (.8%) Education and training (.%) Transport, postage and warehousing & storage (.%) Accommodation, cafes and restaurants (.%) Public administration and safety (.%) Retail trade (.%) Mining (.%) Financial and insurance services (.%) Wholesale trade (.9%) Arts and recreation services (.%) Electricity, gas and water (6.%) Other services (.%) Administrative and support services (.%) Rental, hiring and real estate services (.7%) Agriculture, forestry, and fishing (.%) Information media and telecommunications (-.%) Manufacturing (-.%) ' persons - Note: Average annual growth in parentheses. Source: ABS Catalogue Number

8 Policy Responses Counter-cyclical fiscal policy already doing that to a considerable extent Commonwealth fiscal consolidation (change in underlying cash balance) Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 9- to to to Year Year Year Year Year Source: Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, November,. 8

9 Policy Responses Counter-cyclical fiscal policy already doing that to a considerable extent Mining i tax even a mining i tax that has a minimal i effect on investment incentives will reduce size of the income shock, provided tax revenue is saved (e.g. in higher public saving or in superannuation). Reduce impediments to labour mobility (enhance flexibility generally) In declining sectors support workers not firms Policy Responses (continued) Respond to skill shortages with: Immigration, which reduces the extent to which declining sectors have to actually shrink, and Participation-friendly reform again reduces the extent to which declining sectors have to actually shrink 9

10 Dutch disease? (Gregory effect) Discovery/exploitation of Dutch natural gas field in 9s-7s drove up Dutch exchange rate; led to decline in Dutch manufacturing sector, and rise in unemployment Fear about harming Dutch industrial structure consistent with longer term comparative advantage Of what relevance to Australia s current circumstances? The resources boom and structural change in the Australian economy Victoria University David Gruen Australian Treasury February

11 Back pocket State and Commonwealth fiscal consolidation (change in underlying cash balance) 6 Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 6 9 to 99 9 to to Year Year Year Year Year Source: Commonwealth - MYEFO, - state budgets with the exception of NT - MYEFO, ABS GFS