Orlando J. Ferreres & Associates A R G E N T I N A. Economic Situation and Perspectives. Comité Mixto Empresarios Argentino-Japonés

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1 Orlando J. Ferreres & Associates A R G E N T I N A Economic Situation and Perspectives Comité Mixto Empresarios Argentino-Japonés Buenos Aires, December 5 th

2 CONTENTS World Economy Argentina: Scenarios for 2015 Long-term perspectives Agricultural and meat industry Minning Oil and Gas Asset value in Argentina Long-term Forecast and scenarios 2

3 World GDP and population f Nominal GDP Participation Population Participation Per capita GDP US$ billions % Global GDP millions % population US$ World ,0% ,0% Developed ,4% ,7% United States ,8% 319 4,5% Euro Area (12) ,5% 335 4,7% Japan ,3% 127 1,8% Other developed* ,8% 260 3,7% Emerging Economies ,6% ,3% Asia ,9% ,2% China ,1% ,3% India ,6% ,8% Latin America ,4% 599 8,5% Brazil ,9% 200 2,8% Mexico ,7% 120 1,7% Argentina ,6% 42 0,6% Colombia ,5% 48 0,7% Venezuela ,4% 30 0,4% Chile ,3% 18 0,3% Eastern Europe ,9% 179 2,5% other ,4% ,1% * UK, Canada, Australia y South Korea Source: Orlando Ferreres & Associates and IMF 2014 f 3

4 SCENARIOS FOR External conditions improve (Optimistic) Soybeans price recovers to US$ 500 per tn FED Funds rate increases slowly to 0.50% GDP growth of 3% in Brazil Settlement with holdouts in January The government issues bonds for US$ 8,000 M Current Policy + External Financing (Base) Soybeans price recovers to US$ 400 per Tn FED Funds rate is increased to 1% 1,0% GDP growth in Brazil The government issues bonds for US$12,000 M Balance of Payments Crisis (Pessimistic) Soybeans price between US$ FED Funds rate increases rapidly and is set over 1% by december. Stagnation in Brazil (no GDP growth) No settlement with Holdouts No access to external financing 4

5 ARGENTINA: THE TOOLS OF GOVERNMENT 2015 OBSTACLES Downward trend in commodity prices Adjustment program in Brazil Energy Imports Holdouts Control NO NO NO YES 5

6 PROJECTIONS f 2015 f Unit 2013 Current Pessimisti Weighted Base Optimistic Policy c Avg. Probability 90% 40% 50% 10% Economic Activity IGA- (General Activity Index) annual % chg 3,2% -2,3% -4,0% -0,5% 2,5% -1,6% Per Capita GDP US$ (official ER) Prices, exchange rate, and interest rate Consumer Prices (dic) annual % chg 29,8% 41,4% 46,0% 39,0% 37,7% 42% Nominal wage annual % chg 25,8% 32,4% 32,2% 35,6% 35,6% 34% Real wage annual % chg 0,5% -6,4% -9,5% -2,4% -1,5% -5% Exchange rate dec. (offcial) AR$ / US$ 6,35 8,91 16,64 13,4 13,07 14,7 Short term interest rate to Private S. %TNA - dic 24,8% 37,9% 50,0% 36,0% 32,0% 41% Public Sector w/o dividends from Central Bank Primary Fiscal Balance Federal Govt. mill. AR$ % of GDP -2,0% -3,3% -3,5% -3,7% -3,4% -3,6% Overall Fiscal Balance Federal Govt. mill. AR$ % of GDP -3,4% -4,8% -4,9% -5,0% -4,6% -5,0% External Sector Trade Balance mill. US$ % of GDP 1,7% 1,4% 0,7% -0,6% 1,6% 0,1% Foreign Currency Reserves (dec) mill. US$ Reserves (dec) mill. US$

7 ARGENTINA: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Source: & Associates based upon Agricultural Ministry 7

8 GRAIN PRODUCTION OUTLOOK Scenarios Production (mill tn) , Base 136, Performance improvement 154, With new varieties 175,4 Source: GPS, Papel y visión Argentina, Brasil, Paraguay y Uruguay,

9 e CHINA: MEAT IMPORTS Miles 000 metric de toneladas tons Fuente: Source: Departamento & Associates de based Agricultura upon USDA de EE.UU. 9

10 Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 ARGENTINA: MINING EXPORTS M de U$S US$ million anuales 12 -month promedio moving móvil average 12 meses Gold, silver and p. stones % 610% enin años years copper Fuente: Source y & Asociados Associatesen and base INDEC al INDEC 10

11 ARGENTINA: RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF SHALE GAS AND SHALE OIL RESOURCES SHALE OIL billion barrels País Shale Oil 1 Rusia 75 2 EE.UU China 32 4 Argentina 27 5 Libia 26 6 Australia 18 7 Venezuela 13 8 México 13 9 Pakistán 9 10 Canadá Total Mundial Fuente: US Energy Information Administration Source: US Energy Information Agency VACA MUERTA SHALE GAS trillion cubic feet Shale gas País 1 China Argentina Algeria EE.UU Canadá México Australia Sud África Rusia Brasil Total Mundial Fuente: US Energy Information Administration billion barrels trillion cubic feet Shale oil Shale gas Estimated capacity % country 59,3% 38,4% % world 4,6% 4,2% Source: Petrotecnia - Instituto Argentino del Petróleo y Gas 11

12 HOW MUCH IS A COMPANY WORTH? PRICE / EBITDA (times) SOURCE: 12

13 oct-12 nov-12 dic-12 ene-13 feb-13 mar-13 abr-13 may-13 jun-13 jul-13 ago-13 sep-13 oct-13 nov-13 dic-13 ene-14 feb-14 mar-14 abr-14 may-14 jun-14 jul-14 ago-14 sep-14 oct-14 nov-14 ARGENTINA: MERVAL EVOLUCIÓN DEL ÍNDICE MERVAL US$ - implied exchange rate Source: & Associates based on market data 13

14 SCENARIOS FOR SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM External conditions improve 10% Gradual adjustment 60% Current policy + Financing 50% Balance of Payments Crisis 40% Shock adjustment 40% 14

15 PROJECTIONS Gradual Based on the most likely scenario 2013 unit Economic Activity IGA- y o y % chg 3,2% -2,3% -0,5% 0,5% 5,0% 5,1% Per Capita GDP US$ (official) Prices, Exchange rate and Interest rate Consumer Prices (dic) y o y % chg 29,8% 41,4% 39,0% 23,8% 26,0% 19,1% Nominal wage y o y % chg 25,8% 32,4% 35,6% 24,6% 27,6% 21,2% Real wage y o y % chg -3,1% -6,4% -2,4% 0,6% 1,3% 1,8% Exchange rate (dec) $US$ 6,35 8,9 13,4 20,7 25,3 28,2 Nat. Gas Price avg US$/MBTU 3,2 3,4 3,5 5,5 6,0 7,0 Public Sector w/o dividends from Central Bank Primary Fiscal Balance mill. AR$ % of GDP 3,7% -3,3% -3,7% -2,5% -2,0% 0,3% Overrall Fiscal Balance mill. AR$ % of GDP -3,4% -4,8% -5,0% -4,2% -3,3% -2,2% External Sector Trade Balance mill. US$ % of GDP 1,7% 1,4% -0,6% 1,2% 2,4% 1,9% Reserves without Swaps and others mill. US$ Reserves (dec) mill. US$

16 PROJECTIONS Shock Based on the most likely scenario 2013 unit Economic Activity IGA- y o y % chg 3,2% -2,3% -0,5% -1,8% 9,1% 7,2% Per Capita GDP US$ (official) Prices, Exchange rate and Interest rate Consumer Prices (dic) y o y % chg 29,8% 41,4% 39,0% 62,0% 8,4% 5,9% Nominal wage y o y % chg 32,4% 32,4% 35,6% 60,6% 11,8% 8,9% Real wage y o y % chg -3,1% -6,4% -2,4% -0,9% 3,1% 2,8% Exchange rate (dec) $US$ 6,35 8,9 13,4 25,5 25,5 25,4 Nat. Gas Price avg US$/MBTU 3,2 3,4 3,5 7,0 7,5 7,5 Public Sector w/o dividends from Central Bank Primary Fiscal Balance mill. AR$ % of GDP 3,7% -3,3% -3,7% 2,3% 2,5% 2,6% Overrall Fiscal Balance mill. AR$ % of GDP -3,4% -4,8% -5,0% 1,2% 1,4% 0,9% External Sector Trade Balance mill. US$ % of GDP 1,7% 1,4% -0,6% 1,5% 1,6% 1,4% Reserves without Swaps and others mill. US$ Reserves (dec) mill. US$

17 THANK YOU! 17

18 ARGENTINA: INVESTMENT FORECAST IN 20 YEARS USD million Energy Sector Sector Energético TOTAL Per Por year año TOTAL INVESTMENT INVERSIONES OIL & GAS Conventional Petróleo y gas oil convencional & gas Wells Pozos Shale Oil Wells Pozos Equipment Equipos de Perforación Fracture Sets de Fractura sets Surface Instal. de buildings superficie Shale Gas Pozos Wells Equipos Equipment de Perforación Sets Fracture de Fractura sets Instal. Surface de buildings superficie DOWNSTREAM ELECTRIC ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA ENERGY Electricity GeneraciónGeneration 1200 MW / año year Distribution Transporte y and Distribución Transport Nuevas New Investment Inversiones MAINTANANCE MANTENIMIENTO (update (puesta + annual al día expenditure + anual) Source: Fuente: NyS own en base estimates, a estimaciones Montamat & propias, Asoc., Jorge Montamat Ferioli y Asoc., Jorge Ferioli 18