2015 AWRA Summer Specialty Conference: Climate Change Adaptation (New Orleans, LA) June 15, 2015 Presenter: John Squerciati, P.E.

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1 Economic Assessment Tools for Infrastructure Resilience Projects - FTA - Hazard Mitigation Cost Effectiveness (HMCE) Tool and Recurrence Interval Calculator for Benefit-Cost Analysis 2015 AWRA Summer Specialty Conference: Climate Change Adaptation (New Orleans, LA) June 15, 2015 Presenter: John Squerciati, P.E., CFM, Dewberry

2 Agenda / Overview Sandy Impacts on Transit Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Response Hazard Mitigation Cost Effectiveness (HMCE) Tool Development Recurrence Interval (RI) Calculator Development Application of HMCE Tool and RI Calculator Questions? 2

3 Sandy Impacts on Transit Physical Damage Response & Recovery Service Losses Source: FEMA P-942 (PANYNJ) Source: Metropolitan Transit Authority Source: Metropolitan Transit Authority 3

4 FTA Response Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 authorized FTA to issue grants to reduce risk of damage to public transportation against future disasters in the area affected by Hurricane Sandy FTA Notice of Funding Availability (NOFA) issued for $3.0 billion in competitive grants for transit resilience projects within the thirteen Sandy-impacted states and DC Evaluation criteria includes Hazard Mitigation Cost Effectiveness (HMCE) HMCE determines probable project resilience/protective value based on quantitative and qualitative information Serves as a probability-weighted benefit/cost analysis (BCA) Damage estimates based on historic disaster events (e.g. 50 or 100- year storm) or engineering estimates of projected future event damages Applicants must estimate reduction in damages for the proposed project (100% protection may only be achieved through relocation). 4

5 HMCE Tool Development Design Requirements: Consistent with FEMA s benefit-cost analysis (BCA) approach Modify to be consistent with specific needs of transit systems and other application requirements Tool developed as Excel-based workbook with five tabs 1) Tool Information 2) Project Information & Cost Estimate 3) Pre-Resilience Damages 4) Post-Resilience Damages 5) Analysis Results & Qualitative Benefits 5

6 HMCE Tool Project Information & Cost Estimate Project Cost Variables Capital project cost estimate Remaining useful life of asset Differential O&M costs Loss of passenger service during construction Passenger value of time due to delays during construction Additional costs due to detours 6

7 HMCE Tool Pre-Resilience Damages Pre-Resilience Damages Can be determined based on Historic Damages or Expected Damages with associated Recurrence Intervals (RIs) Categories of Damages: Physical Damages Response and Recovery Costs Other Damage Costs (debris, cleanup) Economic Impacts of Lost Transit Service 7

8 HMCE Tool Post-Resilience Damages Post-Resilience Damages: Damages expected to occur after the resilience project design level of effectiveness been reached. (Example: a project designed to protect up to the 500-year event should include some post-resilience damages beginning at the 500-year event RI.) 8

9 HMCE Tool Analysis Results & Qualitative Benefits 9

10 HMCE Tool Training Resources User Guide: Developed concurrently with tool revisions Provides a step-by-step walk-through of data entry Training Materials: Used similar topics and breakouts to FEMA BCA course format, but was developed exclusively for FTA s HMCE tool Four units: Unit 1: Welcome and Course Overview Unit 2: Benefits and Costs of Resilience Projects Unit 3: Overview of the HMCE Tool Unit 4: Data Documentation and Case Study HMCE Tool trainings delivered live and via webinar 10

11 Recurrence Interval (RI) Calculator Development Coastal Flood Recurrence Interval (RI) RI Calculator for Sea Level Rise: Developed in response to questions received during training about how to incorporate Sea Level Rise (SLR) into projects Allows users to calculate adjusted recurrence intervals of a known coastal flood elevation Developed to complement inputs for the HMCE Tool Allows users to estimate the coastal flood RI at a location to account for sea level rise based on the estimated useful life of the project 11

12 RI Calculator - Details Requires inputs from FEMA FISs or other credible sources for known RIs Uses NOAA coastal gauge data Magnitude of SLR based on USACE Climate Change Adaptation Sea Level Change curves RSLC in feet (NAVD88) Year Source: UACE ( 12

13 RI Calculator - Example Section III (Optional) Adjustment of Flood Elevations for Sea Level Rise (SLR) Project Useful 50 Analysis Year: 2014 Last SLR Year: 2064 Life (Years): Option 1- Automatic Evaluation of SLR (Select nearby NOAA Gauge and SLR Trend) Click to Select nearby NOAA Gauge: Additional Flood Elev. (ft): Recurrence Interval Flood Elevation Including 0.9 Option 2- User-input SLR from other Sources 0.9 Click to Select SLR Trend: Source/ documentation: (years) Waveheight & SLR (ft) Section IV - Recorded Flood Elevations and Estimated RIs without and with SLR Input Recorded Elevation(s) to see R.I.(s) R.I.s of Current Flood Elevations Considering SLR Recorded Flood Elevation (ft) User-input Additional Flood Elev. (ft): Selected Additional Flood Elev. (ft): Estimated R.I. without SLR (Year) The Battery, NY Estimated R.I. with SLR (Year) Accelerated (Intermediate) Estimated for Year 2064 based on Accelerated (Intermediate) trend projection for NOAA Gauge: The Battery NY Flood Elevation including Waveheight (ft) RI without SLR (Year) Estimated R.I. with SLR (Year)

14 Application of HMCE Tool and RI Calculator HMCE Tool used to analyze 78 transit resilience projects for 63 grant applications submitted under the NOFA with a total Federal request of $8.7 billion ($11.8 billion total cost.) Many grant applications used the RI Calculator to design resilience projects to reflect current and future impacts of SLR. The majority of the Federal grants from the NOFA were awarded to transit resilience projects with HMCE results documented to be cost-effective. FTA is planning to work with Dewberry to enhance the HMCE Tool and RI Calculator to allow it to be used as a screening tool for transit resilience projects nationwide. 14

15 Questions? FTA Program Questions, Additional Resources and Information: HMCE Tool Questions: Laurel McGinley;