Riverine Flooding - Cedar Rapids, Iowa 2008

Transcription

1 Katrina 2005

2 Riverine Flooding - Cedar Rapids, Iowa 2008

3 Riverine and Pluvial Flooding Nashville 2010

4 Mississippi and Missouri Rivers 2011

5 INFRASTRUCTURE

6 ECONOMY

7 21 st Century 20 th Century "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore 7

8 PEOPLE Dispersion of New Orleans Residents after Katrina

9 Flood Risk and Resilience: Welcome to the 21 st Century Austin, Texas 20 May 2014 Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., PE, PhD Center for Disaster Resilience University of Maryland

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11 Challenges

12 The 21st Century Population Explosion Pressures for Development Crumbling Infrastructure Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous National and World Situations Climate Change and Disasters! 12

13 Climate Change Is Real! Global climate is changing, and this is apparent across the U.S. in a wide range of observations. The climate change of the past 50 years is due primarily to human activities Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and there is new and stronger evidence that many of these increases are related to human activities. National Climate Assessment (2014) A strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems Americas Climate Choices, National Academies (2011)

14 Changes to Flood Areas Climate Change and the NFIP AECOM 14

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17 Climate Change Deemed Growing Security Threat by Military Researchers

18 SEA LEVEL RISE

19 Toccoa Falls Dam Deaths Dam Failures Buffalo Creek Dam Deaths Teton Dam Deaths

20 Levees Can Fail or Overtop

21 Levee and Dam Safety and Failure Consequences River Basin Secondary Effects Loss of Water Supply, Hydropower, Navigation. Recreation, Loss of Life Loss of Life; Property Damage. Loss of Flood Protection, Environmental Losses Secondary Effects Modified from 21

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23 NRCS c/o FEMA

24 Levee Is Not A Four Letter Word but Levee Is Not a Four Letter Natural Word,but

25 FEMA Inventoried Levees Levee Map

26 But We Don t Know What Need to Know About Levees How Many There Are and Where Their Characteristics Their Status Integrity Who Will Repair Those in Need What Size Should They Be

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28 Assessment NEED: Rapid Assessment Of Levee Geotechnical Integrity

29 Gabriel Utasi East Valley AZ Tribune

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31 The Move to Flood Risk Management A willingness to live with floods Individual and small communities adapt to the natures rhythm. A desire to utilise the floodplain Fertile land in floodplain is drained for food production. Permanent communities are established on the floodplain. A need to control floods Large scale structural approaches are implemented through organised governance. A need to reduce flood damages A recognition that engineering alone has limitations. Effort is devoted to increasing the resilience of communities should a flood occur. A need to manage risk A recognition that not all problems are equal. Risk management is seen as an effective and efficient means to maximise the benefit of limited investment. Flood risk is a function of the characteristics of the hazard, the exposure to the hazard, the vulnerability of that which is exposed and the consequences that could occur. 31

32 ASFPM Foundation Holistic Coasts

33 Risk Reducing Risk Initial Risk Zoning Absolute protection from floods is not possible must plan for exceedence (Residual Risk) Cannot rely on single structural approach - implement a portfolio of measures Identify risks and make decisions based on relative risk recognize not all will get the same protection Modified from USACE

34 Message How Much Is Too Much Risk?

35 ALARP =As Low As Reasonably Practicable

36 Democracy? How far should public officials in a democratic society attempt to influence individuals go beyond informing them- concerning risks and risk reducing actions? National Research Council Committee on Risk (1989) Who Decides?

37 Social Justice There are competing priorities between managing for flood risk and making affordable housing available was one issue raised. Often people of low socio-economic status or the elderly who are located in flood-prone areas, because such areas are more affordable

38 Message To Reduce Flood and Coastal Risk You Must Know What It Is and Then Do Something About It

39 Why Don t People Know About Present and Future Exposure and Vulnerability? Exposure/vulnerability are bad news Exposure knowledge limits development Knowing establishes a requirement for action and action, may not be feasible The threat is uncertain and therefore not taken as a problem We don t give them the information they need 39

40 Binary Flood Flood Maps In Flood Zone In Flood Zone OUT OUT

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42 PERCENT 30-YEAR CHANCE GRID

43 FLOOD DEPTH GRID

44 OTHER FLOOD RISK AREAS

45 Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Sandy mapping hampton roads

46 Some Very Loose Ends

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48 Products, Progress, Partners May 22, 2013

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51 100 Years of Civil Engineering at Maryland Being prepared to withstand a hazard event and come back better than before Risk Resilience

52 Risk Information Should Be Readily Available to the Public

53 "Reports that say that something hasn t happened are always interesting to me because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns the ones we don t know we don t know. Donald Rumsfeld

54 National Flood Insurance Program Biggert-Waters 2012 Rates Need to Be Risk-Informed Subsidies Need to Be Controlled Program Needs to Be Self-Sustaining BUT Program Must be Affordable?

55 W

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57 nj.com Thank You! 57