Drawing parallels between UK and US methods of flood risk analysis and hazard mapping
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1 Drawing parallels between UK and US methods of flood risk analysis and hazard mapping Ben Gouldby Jonathan Simm Gerry Galloway Sandra Knight HR Wallingford University of Maryland June 2014 ASFPM - Seattle
2 Overview Flooding commonalities between US and UK Risk analysis of flood systems Relationship between LAMP and full flood risk analysis Benefits/uses/challenges of full flood risk analysis Summary and conclusions Page 2
3 US and UK flooding commonalities UK Winter 2013/2014 Winter 2012 Summer 2007 Winter 2000 US Sandy Mississippi Katrina, etc Page 3
4 Overview Risk analysis of flooding systems Page 4
5 US and UK flooding commonalities Page 5
6 Risk analysis of flooding systems: Sources: Extreme value analysis Water level (m) Return period (years) Page 6
7 Risk analysis of flood systems: Pathways: Reliability/breaching Probability of failure Probability X(m) Freeboard Water level load Breach simulation Page 7
8 Range of models Risk analysis of flood systems: Pathways: Flood inundation Runtime 1s Volume based Rapid Flood Spreading Model (RFSM) Diffusion wave (Dynamic RFSM) Hybrid models (local acceleration with sub-grid topography, RFSM EDA) Full Shallow Water Equations e.g. InfoWorks RS (GPU) & CS, TELEMAC, Tuflow, etc) June 2014 ASFPM, Seattle Runtime 10 s (mins/hrs) Page 8
9 Risk analysis of flood systems: Receptors: Consequences Depth/Damage ($) relationships Depth Metres Depth Damage Curve Damage /m2 High Susceptibility Band Low Susceptibility Band Indicative Susceptibility Page 9
10 Risk analysis of flood systems: Example output Page 10 Page 10
11 Overview Relationship between LAMP and full flood risk analysis Page 11
12 Relationship between LAMP and full flood risk analysis Page 12
13 Comparison of NFIP (LAMP) and flood risk analysis Water level (m) NFIP (LAMP) uses single estimate rather than full distribution Return period (years) Page 13
14 Comparison of NFIP (LAMP) and flood risk analysis Probability of failure Probability X(m) Freeboard Water level load LAMP Structural-based Inundation Procedure (SIP) does not require assessment of failure likelihood Breach simulation Page 14
15 Comparison of NFIP (LAMP) and flood risk analysis LAMP - independent reach-specific inundation June 2014 ASFPM, Seattle
16 Comparison of NFIP (LAMP) and flood risk analysis Page 16
17 Overview Benefits/Uses/Challenges of full flood risk analysis Page 17
18 Benefits/Uses/Challenges of full risk analysis: Flood hazard mapping/climate change impacts Page 18
19 Benefits/uses of full risk analysis: Asset management planning/prioritisation Page 19
20 Attributing risk to levee system: Volume Tracking Page 20
21 Benefits/Uses/Challenges of full risk analysis: Strategic flood risk management Risk profile through time for HLO 1, 2 and the P3 Policy Risk(EAD m) P3 HLO1 HLO Time (year) Page 21
22 Benefits/Uses/Challenges of full risk analysis: Challenges Mindset - Willingness to accept imperfection (there is never enough data and there is always uncertainty etc.) Practical computational challenges Stakeholder communication of methods and results takes time. Page 22
23 Overview Summary and conclusions Page 23
24 Summary and conclusions UK and US face similar flooding problems US and UK flood risk analysis methods based on same concepts and principles Full system flood risk analysis enables the spatial variation in risk to be evaluated and hence encourages risk management approaches There are a wide range of flood risk management decisions that can be supported by risk modelling and a number of challenges. Page 24
25 ASFPM - Seattle Page 25
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