Afghanistan Public Opinion Survey May 3-16, 2009

Transcription

1 Afghanistan Public Opinion Survey May 3-16,

2 International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted. Field data collection by Kabul Group (Kabul, Afghanistan). 2 Survey Specifications Supervision of fieldwork by Mia Bonarski (Lapis, Ltd., Kabul, Afghanistan). Oversight and analysis by David Williams (Lapis Ltd. and Williams & Associates of Salem, Massachusetts). The national survey was conducted from May 3-16, The sample was 3,200 adult Afghans (18+). The overall margin of error is ± 1.76 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level. Interviews collected using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers using a multistage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution, with random selection of households and respondents in 34 provinces of Afghanistan. Men interviewed men and women interviewed women. All 34 provinces were selected at the first level of stratification, and approximately five districts within each province were selected, including the provincial capital district and four other randomly selected districts. The clusters, which were the primary sampling unit, each contain between four and ten villages exhibiting similar characteristics. The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. All data shown is from the May 3-16, 2009, national survey or a face-to-face survey conducted in March/April 2004 (n=2,500, +/-2 percent margin of error at 95 percent confidence level). Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.

3 Survey Statistics 60 percent male to 40 percent female ratio of respondents Ethnic Distribution of Respondents Age Distribution of Respondents 8% Pashtun Tajik 46% Uzbek Hazara 34% Other Turkmen 20% 8% 29% 39% % 3

4 Regional Breakdown by Province Southwest Region Daikundi Helmand Kandahar Nimroz Urozgan Zabul Southeast Region Ghazni Khost Paktia Paktika East Region Kunar Laghman Nangarhar Nuristan Central Region Kabul Kapisa Logar Panjsher Parwan Wardak Northeast Region Badakhshan Baghlan Kunduz Takhar Northwest Region Balkh Faryab Jowzjan Samangan Sar-e-Pul West Region Badghis Bamiyan Farah Ghor Herat 4

5 Afghanistan Environment

6 Do you think Afghanistan is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 30% 37% 26% 10% 5% 0% Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither DK/REF 7% 6

7 How is your family s economic situation compared to five years ago? DK/REF Much worse 5% 6% Worse 14% The same 21% Better 43% Much better 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 7

8 Is Afghanistan more stable today than it was one year ago? 60% 50% 40% 52% More stable Less stable The same DK/REF 30% 20% 10% 14% 22% 12% 0% 8

9 9 In the next year, do you think the economy in Afghanistan will get better, get worse or stay the same?

10 What are the two most important problems facing Afghanistan today? First Second Total Security 36% 21% 57% The economy 9% 17% 26% Jobs and unemployment 8% 12% 20% The election 5% 4% 9% Poverty, standard of living 4% 5% 9% Internal conflicts 5% 4% 9% Lack of educational opportunities 3% 4% 7% Corruption 3% 5% 8% Need for reconstruction/rebuilding the country 2% 3% 5% Drugs and narcotics 2% 3% 5% Foreign forces 2% 2% 4% Terrorism 2% 2% 4% Local civilian casualties 1% 1% 2% Agriculture 1% 1% 2% Improvised explosive devises 1% 1% 2% Lack of freedom 1% 1% 2% Lack of power and water 1% 1% 2% Other 10% 12% 22% DK/REF 3% 4% 7% 10

11 11 How would you describe the political and security situation in the region?

12 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 11% In your opinion which of the following countries have good relations with Afghanistan? 47% 39% 33% 26% 21% 20% 3% 12

13 Performance of Government

14 14 Using a scale from one to five where one is lowest and five is highest, what grade would you give the overall performance of...?

15 15 How would you rate Hamid Karzai s performance as president?

16 16 What issue do politicians talk too much about? (open-ended question; responses of more than two percent)

17 17 What issue do politicians talk too little about? (open-ended question; responses of more than two percent)

18 18 Do you think the number of elected women in Afghanistan is adequate, or should Afghanistan have more women in elected office?

19 19 Would you vote for a woman for?

20 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% What about young people: do you think that young people are adequately represented in elected government in Afghanistan? 30% Too few 36% About the right amount 11% Too many 22% DK/REF 20

21 In general, whom do you think is better in elected office: someone younger than 35 or someone older than 35? 27% 10% 19% Younger than 35 Older than 35 It depends No difference DK/REF 6% 38% 21

22 In your opinion how serious is corruption in Afghanistan? Not serious at all Somewhat serious DK/REF Not very serious Very serious 3% 6% 26% 55% 11% 22

23 In general, how has the current government performed in controlling corruption compared to the previous government? Very good Good Poor Very poor DK/REF 16% 47% 11% 4% 7% 23

24 Have you or a friend or relative had to pay a bribe or offer a gift to a government employee or official in the following situations? To a local official for a license, permit or service To politician for job consideration 23% 27% 36% 39% 38% 35% DK/REF No Yes To a municipality official for a license, permit or service 20% 35% 46% Police officer for traffic violation 21% 31% 48% For health services in a public clinic or hospital 16% 28% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 24

25 Elections

26 Did you register to vote for the upcoming elections? 4% 22% Yes No DK/REF 74% 26

27 What is the main reason you have for not registering and obtaining a voter card? (open-ended question; top responses; n = 790) Security Access to voting offices Corruption, abuse of power Lack of trust Government opposition Internal conflicts, Afghan unity Economics Fear of the Taliban DK/REF Terrorism, acts of violence 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 10% 12% 21% 22% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 27

28 28 Did your family members register to vote?

29 Do you know why they didn t register to vote? (open-ended question; top responses; n = 792) Security Economics Fear of the Taliban Terrorism, acts of violence DK/REF Government opposition Access to voting offices Internal conflicts, tribal unity Corruption, abuse of power Reconstruction, infrastructure 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 8% 8% 8% 16% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 29

30 If the presidential election was held today how likely is it that you would vote? Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely DK/REF Likely to vote 59% Unlikely to vote 33% 26% 33% 17% 16% 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 30

31 If the presidential election was held today, how likely would you be to vote? (likelihood of voting by region) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Very likely Likely Unlikely Won't vote DK/REF 37% 37% 38% 33% 35% 32% 30% 30% 28% 27% 25% 23% 20% 20% 18% 15% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 12% 14% 14% 15% 13% 12% 13% 11% 6% 6% 8% 5% 3% NE NW East Central West SE SW 47% 31

32 32 What is your personal motivation to vote in the upcoming presidential elections? (open-ended question; likely voters; n = 1,832)

33 33 What do you consider yourself first?

34 34 Would you be willing to vote for someone for president who is not from your ethnic group?

35 35 Has President Karzai done his job well enough to deserve re-election?

36 Hamid Karzai Ali Ahmad Jalali Ehsanullah Bayat Mohammed Qaseem Fahim Gul Agha Sherzai Ramazan Bashardost Ashraf Ghani Dr. Farouk Wardak Abdullah Abdullah Ata Mohammad Noor Prince Ali Seraj Yunus Qanuni Babrak Shinwari Ghotai Khowri Sigbatullah Mojadeddi Shahla Atta Abdul Qadr Imani Ghowri Muhammad Rasul Nawab Daoud Sultanzoy Anwar-ul-Haq Ahadi Mohammad Haneef Atmar Fatima Gailani Muhammad Daud Miraki Mirwais Yassini 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 69% 45% 42% 32% 19% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people? Favorable Unfavorable Difference 28% 31% 31% 30% 24% 23% 19% 15% 9% 7% 26% 6% 7% 4% 5% 22% 17% 16% 3% 8% 12% 6% 5% 2% -1% -4% -5% -5% -6% -8% -9% -11% -11% -12% -13% -13% -13% -14%-14%-14%-14%-14%-14%-15% -25% -30% -26% -26% -28% -25% -23% -20%-18% -19% -20% -18%-19% -17% -23% -33% -28%-36% -39% -38% -36% -31% -30% 36

37 37 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people?

38 What is your opinion of national parties? 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 17% 38% 12% 25% 8% Strongly favorable Favorable Unfavorable Strongly unfavorable DK/REF 38

39 Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election? If yes, for whom did you vote? (n=2,528) Hamid Karzai 51% No 18% Yes 79% DK/REF 3% Mohammed Mohaqiq 2% Yonus Qanoni 14% Abdul Rashid Dostum 4% Other 3% None 2% Latif Pedram 1% Masooda Jalal 2% 39

40 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 24% When you think about people in political life, who is the one person in Afghanistan that you view most favorably? (open-ended question) 14% 12% 9% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 40

41 100% 90% If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (open-ended question; likely voters; n = 1,677) 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% first ballot victory mark 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 31% 11% 7% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 15% 1% 8% 41

42 If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (those who said they voted for Karzai in 2004 and would vote for him again in 2009; n=1,632) No one in % 2004 Karzai voter retention Breakdown of other vote (n = 838) DK/REF in % Abdullah Abdullah % Ali Ahmed Jalali % Ashraf Ghani % Other 40% Still Voting for Karzai in % Others % 42

43 If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison by demographic group; n=1,632) 100% Respondents who said they voted 90% for Karzai in % 71% Respondents who said they would 70% vote for Karzai in % 50% 50% 40% 29% 24% 27% 30% 30% 23% 26% 23% 19% 18% 20% 2% 6% 8% 10% 0% 98% 32% 2% 20% 43

44 If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by region) West 22% 46% Southwest 15% 74% Southeast 33% 83% Central 18% 44% East Northwest Northeast 14% 18% 27% 25% 33% 84% IEC reported voting percentage in 2004 Karzai support in May % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 44

45 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by province in the central region) 61% Karzai support in May 2009 IEC reported voting percentage in % 26% 4% 1% Wardak Parwan Panjsher Logar Kapisa Kabul 14% 87% 6% 37% 36% 53% 45

46 If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by province in the northeast region) 100% 90% 80% 70% Karzai support in May 2009 IEC reported voting percentage in % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 23% 12% 13% 46% 6% 35% 41% 30% 0% Takhar Kunduz Baghlan Badakhshan 46

47 If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by province in the northwest region) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Karzai support in May 2009 IEC reported voting percentage in % 30% 31% 30% 25% 12% 12% 8% 7% 10% Sar-i-Pul Samangan Jozjan Faryab Balkh 47

48 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by province in the west region) Karzai support in May 2009 IEC reported voting percentage in % 58% 31% 28% 12% Herat Ghor Farah Bamyan Badghis 75% 4% 9% 29% 61% 48

49 If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by province in the southwest region) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Karzai support in May 2009 IEC reported voting percentage in % 89% 91% 90% 77% 22% 17% 16% 16% 12% 13% 7% Zabul Urozgan Nimroz Kandahar Helmand Daikundi 49

50 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 42% If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by province in the southeast region) 88% 96% 96% 72% Karzai support in May 2009 IEC reported voting percentage in % 30% 20% 10% 0% 13% Paktika Paktia Khost Ghazni 3% 50

51 If the presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (comparison of Karzai support by province in the east region) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Karzai support in May 2009 IEC reported voting percentage in % 58% 17% 95% 22% 88% 35% Nuristan Nangarhar Laghman Kunar 95% 51

52 What should be the first priority of the president after the election? (open-ended question) First Priority % of Respondents Security 42% The economy, unemployment, improving the living standard 12% Reconstruction, development, improving the infrastructure 7% Social assistance, helping the citizens 7% Rule of law 4% Education 4% Human rights 3% Corruption, abuse of power 3% Religion and cultural issues 3% Addressing problems with the Taliban 3% Terrorism, ending internal violence 2% International relations 2% Other 5% DK/REF 3% 52

53 Security & International Forces

54 Do you think the government should hold talks and reconcile with the Taliban? 18% 14% 68% Yes No DK/REF 54

55 How important to you are each of the following uses of foreign assistance? Very Important Important Not important Not important at all DK/REF Securing basic human rights 42% 29% 13% 9% 7% Education and health care 65% 19% 5% 6% 4% Increasing troops 43% 24% 14% 12% 7% Building roads, sewer and water 63% 21% 6% 7% 4% Strengthening democracy 21% 24% 22% 17% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 55

56 Which of these same issues would you say is the most important? DK/REF 4% Securing basic human rights 7% Education and health care 40% Increasing troops 18% Building roads, sewer and water 28% Strengthening democracy 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 56

57 When ISAF troops are in your community, which community representative positions should they speak with to achieve security and stability? (open-ended question) Elders Head of tribe Local representative DK/REF Governor Mullah Provincial council head Police Chief of police Public District governor Provincial council 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 7% 7% 16% 31% 29% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 57

58 Are you satisfied with the rehabilitation/development projects that are being implemented by the international community? DK/REF 13% If no, why are you dissatisfied? (n = 930) Too much corruption; abuse of power 13% Yes 57% No 30% Social assistance lacking Other 4% 3% 2% 8% 58 Not enough reconstruction activity No benefits to economy/quality of life

59 Do you have more personal freedom during or after Taliban rule? 5% 19% 10% 67% After During Same DK/REF 59

60 What is your primary source of political news? Radio Television Mosque Family and friends Social organization Print media Other REF DK 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 5% 4% 41% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60

61 25% 20% 23% Which television station do you watch most often for political news? (responses of more than one percent) 21% 20% 15% 10% 10% 11% 5% 0% 3% 3% 4% 4% 61

62 BBC Azadi Ashna Arman Ariyana Other Do not listen REF/DK To which radio station do you listen most often for political news? (responses of more than one percent) 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 13% 29% 34% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 62

63 The Ten Percent

64 Who are the Ten Percent? 10% percent of respondents (n = 302) cited Pashtun ethnicity first, and demonstrated a number of more extreme opinions than the overall population, many of them politically conservative or isolationist 77 percent are located in Central or Southern Afghanistan 60 percent have less than a primary level education 1/3 are in their 20s 55 percent are male 15 percent earn less than $20/month Less than one percent categorize themselves as professional Twice as likely as others to get news from family/friends/mosque 64

65 Do you have more personal freedom during or after the Taliban rule? 70% 60% 50% 69% All others (outside the Ten Percent) Females within the Ten Percent Males within the Ten Percent 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 21% 18% 15% 7% 29% 8% 12% 12% After Taliban During Taliban Same 65

66 Would you be willing to vote for someone for president who is not from your ethnic group? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 71% 62% The Ten Percent All others 24% 20% 14% 10% Yes No REF/DK 66

67 Prevailing attitudes among the Ten Percent 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 57% 49% 75% 68% 60% 34% The Ten Percent All others 39% 30% 20% 10% 21% 9% 23% 0% wouldn't vote want talks with for a woman for Taliban president rate gov't negatively refuse to discuss corruption very negative toward foreign troops 67

68 What is your personal motivation to vote in the upcoming presidential election? (open-ended question; top responses) Political reasons 5% 10% Prevent abuses of power Prevent terrorism, acts of violence Rehabilitation, infrastructure 2% 5% 9% 10% 13% 13% All others The Ten Percent Security 12% 15% Economy, employment 3% 6% Government, rule of law 9% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 68

69 Did you register to vote? (comparison of The Ten Percent to the full sample) The Ten Percent DK/REF 6% All others DK/REF 3% No 27% No 21% Yes 66% Yes 75% 69

70 If presidential election was held today, for whom would you vote? (open-ended question) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25% 23% 24% 22% The Ten Percent All others 14% 8% 9% 3% 5% 2% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 61% 49% In 2004, who did you vote for? 10% 29% 26% 4% 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 17% Karzai Other Didn't Vote 70