Fed Funds Rate Models
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- Darlene Foster
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1 Prudential Equity Group, LLC Figure. RESEARCH FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TARGET Fed policy is very cyclical. Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & GDP GROWTH Federal funds rate is highly correlated with year-over-year growth in nominal GDP. There s been a divergence the past year similar to. Nominal GDP Q Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2 Prudential Equity Group, LLC RESEARCH Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & S&P EARNINGS Fed policy is very highly correlated with consensus forward expected earnings. / S&P Forward Earnings* * -week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through March ; weekly thereafter. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Thomson Financial. Yearly change in federal funds rate target is highly correlated with our Weekly Profits Proxy Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & PROFITS PROXY (yearly change, basis points) Weekly Profits Proxy* / * Business Week s industrial production index multiplied by CRB raw industrials spot price index. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Commodity Research Bureau.
3 Prudential Equity Group, LLC RESEARCH Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial Production May Fed policy is influenced by both domestic and global production cycle Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & EU INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION EU : Industrial Production Apr Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Statistical Office of the European Communities.
4 Prudential Equity Group, LLC RESEARCH Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & COMMODITY PRICES CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (=) / Federal Funds Rate Target Fed policy is strongly influenced by industrial commodity prices. * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Commodity Research Bureau. Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & COMMODITY PRICES CRB Metals Spot Price Index* / Federal Funds Rate Target * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin and zinc. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Commodity Research Bureau.
5 Prudential Equity Group, LLC RESEARCH Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & CAPACITY UTILIZATION - - May - The year-over-year change in the federal funds rate is very highly correlated with both the capacity utilization rate and the NAPM price index. - - Capacity Utilization Rate: Total Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & ISM PRICE INDEX Jun ISM Price Index - Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Institute for Supply Management.
6 Prudential Equity Group, LLC Figure. RESEARCH FEDERAL FUNDS RATE Penn Central Franklin National Silver Bubble Drysdale Securities & Mexico Default Continental Illinois S&L Mexican Peso Pacific Rim LTCM/Russian Default WTC Attack Fed Easing Cycles Fed tends to respond to financial crisis by easing, providing a lift for the economy and stock prices. Figure. S&P INDEX & CRISES (ratio scale) Cuban Missile Penn Central Oil Embargo Franklin National Drysdale Securities & Mexico Default Silver Bubble Continental Illinois S&L Persian Gulf Stock Market Crash Mexican Peso Pacific Rim Jun Accounting Scandals WTC Attack LTCM/Russian Default Jun Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation.
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