Central Bank of Seychelles
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1 Central Bank of Seychelles Monetary Policy Decision Media Presentation June 28, 2018
2 Monetary Policy Stance for the Third quarter of 2018
3 Recommendations Maintain Tight monetary policy stance for the third quarter of 2018 Unchanged interest rate corridor SCF at 8% (ceiling) SDF at 2% (floor) MRR remains unchanged at 13% The reserve money target (average): R3,645 million The CBS remains vigilant and continues to monitor inflationary developments during the quarter
4 Rising inflationary pressures externally
5 Rising external inflationary pressures expected on domestic prices Previous forecast in March Current forecast as at June Source: Food and Agriculture Organization Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
6 04-Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun-18 SCR Depreciating trend against the USD with EUR and GBP weakening SCRUSD SCREUR SCRGBP
7 Mixed indicators from the real sector
8 Contrasting results in tourist arrivals and tourism earnings Slowdown in arrivals but improvement in yields *Last outcome May 2018 / June figure estimated
9 Mixed performance from fisheries sector Increase in production but decline in export value *Last outcome 2018 Q1
10 Tonnes Tonnes Millions Litres Litres Litres Litres Litres Nos Nos Litres Kgs kwh klts klts Nos Hours Hours Nos Nos Nos GB Fish catch Canned tuna Egg Production Beer Stout Spirits Soft drinks Mineral Water Tobacco (Cigarettes) Blocks Paint & Paint products Animal Feed Electricity (kwh) Water Consumption Water Production Telecom Services (Mobile Accounts) International Call Local Call Telephone Exchange Lines Internet Connection Cable TV Connections Data Traffic Mixed movements in production statistics in Q Q1/ 2017Q4 Chg 2018Q1/ 2017Q1/ Chg
11 Positive GDP growth expected in Q Near term forecast in Q *Last outcome Q / Q is an estimate
12 Economic outlook for 2018 indicates positive GDP growth Mixed indicators Increased air connectivity and positive external growth (WEO forecast) Tourism-related projects IOTC resolution effects Evidence of Growing pessimistic sentiments Infrastructure projects expected to have a slight positive effect on growth Eg. Housing projects Credit schemes including lending to SMEs Developments in Emerging and Established Markets
13 Money supply growth declining and mixed movements in interest rates
14 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Per cent (%) Declining money supply growth and credit Total Credit YoY % Private credit YoY % Money supply YoY (%)
15 Consumer credit has biggest share of private sector credit
16 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Per cent (%) Per cent (%) Evolution of key interest rates Average Lending Rate 7-day DAA (sec axis) Savings Rate (sec axis) 91D t-bill Rate
17 Rise in domestic inflationary pressures
18 Per cent (%) Slowdown in inflationary pressures CPI Apr May Month on Month (%) Year on Year (%) month average (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Annualised Year-on-year
19 Potential sources of inflationary pressures in 2018 Increase volatility in energy prices Trade Policies and Impact on production costs Developments in EU and implications on EUR Impact of policy decisions by U.S Federal Reserves and ECB Impact of revision in utility tariffs (domestic) and adjustments Glass Tax Labour Costs Second round effects of depreciating exchange rate Uncertainty in Expectations PIT Implementation and Impact on Demand Populist measures (pressure to meet public expectations) Property Tax and subsequent round effects Movements in interest rates
20 Maintain a tight monetary policy stance for Q in light of rising inflationary pressures and uncertainty that is expected in the short to medium term CBS ready to adjust the policy stance to safeguard price stability
21 Thank you for your attention Questions?
22 Dec Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June SCR/USD Change in cents SCR/ EUR Change in cents SCR/ GBP Change in cents EUR/USD GBP/USD
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