Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast. May 2018 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION
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1 Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast May 2018 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION
2 c 2018 Bank of Jamaica Nethersole Place Kingston Jamaica Telephone: (876) Fax: (876) Website: ISSN Printed in Jamaica
3 Preface This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the shortterm inflation forecasting model Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI). Table of Contents 1.0 Review of Outturn Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast Trends in demand Trends in supply Import prices Trends in Core Inflation Revised Forecast Summary and Conclusion 8 Appendices 9 Tables and Figures Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation... 1 Figure 2: Regional Inflation... 1 Figure 3: Inflation Contribution... 2 Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand... 3 Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales... 4 Figure 6: International Oil Prices... 5 Figure 7: International Grains Prices... 5 Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change).. 6 Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart... 7 Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production... 9
4 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 1.0 Review of Outturn For May 2018, there was no change in the Consumer Price Index compared to an increase of 0.1 per cent recorded for May 2017 and average inflation of 0.5 per cent for May of the last five years. Given the May 2018 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 3.1 per cent, below the 4.6 per cent as at May 2017 and the 3.2 per cent outturn as at April 2018 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation The outturn for May 2018 was below with the 5-year monthly average for May. Inflationary pressure was evident in the Rural Areas (RA) region for May 2018, due mainly to a larger increase in the Housing, Water, Electricity and Gas (HWEG) division. This was offset by deflationary pressures in the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area and the Other Urban Centres mainly due to larger declines in the vegetables and starchy foods category. Figure 2: Regional Inflation May 2018 Research Services Department 1
5 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast The inflationary pressure for May 2018 mainly resulted from an increase in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG). This stemmed mainly from an increase in electricity rates for the month, due to a higher fuel rate. This was offset by a decline in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) due to lower prices for selected vegetables and starchy foods. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution Inflation pressures for May 2018 primarily reflected increases in electricity rates. Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non- Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN May 2018 Research Services Department 2
6 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast 2.1 Trends in demand The main indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ decelerated for the review period. The quarterly change of the 12-month average for the real value of imports is estimated to have decelerated to 2.1 per cent for May 2018 relative to 2.8 per cent in April For May 2018, the estimated quarterly change of the 12-month average in the real value of debit and credit card transactions decelerated to 3.8 per cent relative to 4.0 per cent 1 in the previous month (see Figure 4). Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand The indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ decelerated. 1 Revised May 2018 Research Services Department 3
7 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 2.2 Trends in supply In May 2018, the Vegetables & Starchy Foods sub-division declined at a faster pace relative to the reduction in April This was consistent with surveys carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) in May 2018 which had suggested a faster pace of decline. Surveys by the Consumer Affairs Commission (CAC) had suggested a similar pace of decline for May relative to April. The quarterly change of the 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production, was largely unchanged in May 2018 relative to the previous month (see Figure 5). Domestic agriculture commodity prices declined at a faster pace in May 2018 relative to April Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales The indicator of industrial productivity was largely unchanged in May May 2018 Research Services Department 4
8 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 2.3 Import prices For May 2018, oil prices rose by approximately 5.5 per cent to average US$69.98 per bbl. This increase was mainly influenced by (i) geopolitical tensions (ii) declining Venezuelan crude oil production, which has reduced by 600,000 barrels per day, and (iii) the monthly oil market report published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which indicated an upward revision to its forecast for global oil demand in Oil prices rose in May but declined in June For June 2018, oil prices fell by 3.8 per cent to average US$67.32 per bbl. This decline was mainly influenced by (i)_the Energy Information Administration s (EIA) monthly report which indicated that US crude oil daily production increased in March to the highest level on record. Figure 6: International Oil Prices Figure 7: International Grains Prices May 2018 Research Services Department 5
9 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast The grains price index rose by 1.3 per cent (mtm) in May This outturn mainly reflected a weighted increase in the prices of soft wheat and corn by 5.6 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively. June reflected an increase in the grains price index by 0.7 per cent. This outturn mainly reflected an increase in the prices of rice and hard wheat by 4.6 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively. These were partially offset by declines in corn and soft wheat. The grains price index advanced in May and June Trends in Core Inflation The CPI without Agriculture & Fuel (CPI-AF) in May 2018 remained unchanged at 0.1 per cent, relative to the previous month. Both the CPI without Food and Fuel (CPI-FF) and the Trimmed Mean (TRIM) decelerated to 0.0 per cent relative to 0.1 per cent in the previous month. As at May 2018, all three annual point-to-point measures of core inflation decelerated relative to April The CPI-AF, CPI-FF and TRIM were 2.3 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively, relative to 2.5 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 1.9 per cent in the previous month. Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change) All three measures of annual core inflation were decelerated in May 2018 relative to the previous month. May 2018 Research Services Department 6
10 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 3.0 Revised Forecast Moderate inflation is expected for June The increase in the CPI for the month is forecasted to reflect advances in HWEG, TRAN and FNB. The increase in HWEG is due to expected higher electricity costs for the month. TRAN is expected to reflect an increase in petrol prices as well as airfares. Upward pressure from FNB is also anticipated due to expected increases in non-processed food prices. Inflation in July and August 2018 is anticipated to mainly reflect increases in the costs of utilities and petrol, as well as in non-processed food prices due to an expected rebound in agricultural prices. Inflation for FY2018/19 is forecasted to fall towards the lower end of the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. The overall risks are skewed to the downside for the next four quarters (see Figure 9). The major downside risks include weaker than anticipated demand and lower than anticipated international commodity prices. The main upside risk to the forecast is adverse weather. Headline inflation for FY2018/19 is anticipated to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart May 2018 Research Services Department 7
11 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 3.0 Summary and Conclusion For May 2018, there was no changes in the CPI as advances in Housing, Water, Electricity and Gas (HWEG) was offset by a decline in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) due to lower prices for selected vegetable and starchy foods. Moderate inflation is expected in June 2018, mainly reflecting anticipated increases in HWEG and moderate price increases in vegetables and starchy foods as well as transport costs. Similar increases in these items are expected in July For the next two quarters, inflation is expected to remain marginally below the target range before converging towards the mid-point of the forecast range by June For fiscal year 2018/19, inflation is expected to be within the target range. May 2018 Research Services Department 8
12 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast Appendices Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production May 2018 Research Services Department 9
13 Short-term Inflation Analysis and Forecast May 2018 Research Services Department 10
14 Table 1A JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES May / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May / December 2006 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: STATIN Page 11
15 Table 1B JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL May / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ Page 12
16 Table 1C JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUEL May / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ Page 13
17 Table 1D JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FUEL May / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-F Avg.CPIF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ Page 14
18 Table 2 Regional Inflation May-MTH GKMA OUC RA Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%) 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 15
19 Table 3A Component Contribution to Inflation May Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 16
20 Table 3B Inflation Comparison May-MTH & 2018 Weight in the CPI MTH MTH 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 17
21 Table 4A CYTD Component Contribution to Inflation Jan-May Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 18
22 Table 4B CYTD Inflation Comparison Jan-May & 2018 Weight in the CPI CYTD CYTD 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 19
23 Table 5A FYTD Component Contribution to Inflation Apr-May Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 20
24 Table 5B FYTD Inflation Comparison Apr-May & 2018 Weight in the CPI FYTD FYTD 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 21
25 Table 6 Annual Component Contribution to Inflation May Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 22
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