Flood Resilience Study Findings
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1 Services of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission Flood Resilience Study Findings Presentation to Citizens Advisory Committee Special Session May 17, 2016 Stefani Harrison, Project Manager 1
2 Agenda 1. Flooding Background 2. Combined Collection System Background 3. Flood Resilience Study Process 4. Flood Protection Policy Options a) Is the current LOS (5-yr storm) appropriate? b) How would a revised LOS impact SFPUC s capital plan and rates? 5. Next Steps 2
3 Flood Resilience Study Findings FLOODING BACKGROUND 3
4 How Flooding Can Occur Large storm (beyond collection system capacity) High tides Natural topography Historic waterways Drainage basin size and features Land settlement System blockage (e.g. O&M Issue) 4
5 San Francisco s Historic Waterways 5
6 Citywide Challenges for Flood Infrastructure Modeled flooding in large storm event that exceeds capacity of collection system 6 6
7 Example Watershed - Folsom Drainage Map Division St Outfall Contributing Area Immediately Upstream of 17 th & Folsom 7
8 Example Watershed Sewer main profile along 17 th Street 17 th & Folsom 8
9 Flood Resilience Study Findings COMBINED COLLECTION SYSTEM BACKGROUND 9
10 History of Our Collection System The City s collection system was built over time, starting in the 1840s. 10
11 History of Our Collection System 1840s Construction of City s collection system begins 1941 Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curve for 5-yr storm developed to guide pipe sizes 1952 & 1982 Subdivision Regulations affirm 5-yr design storm (for new development only) 2010, 2012, 2016 Commission endorses 5-yr 3-hr storm as Level of Service, further specifying design storm NO PIPE SIZING REQUIREMENT IN PLACE 5-YR STORM PIPE SIZING REQUIREMENT DOCUMENTED
12 National Context for Flood Protection New York City + Chicago + Philadelphia Some major urban cities that also use 5-yr storm design criteria for their combined systems Sacramento Small portion of city (12 sq miles) with combined system has: Interim goal to minimize flooding in 5-year storm Final goal to minimize flooding in 10-year storm Topography is bowl-shaped; flooding in a 5-year storm is widespread San Francisco Steep and hilly terrain presents unique challenges. Flooding occurs in localized low lying areas (historical waterways). 12
13 Managing Stormwater Stormwater runoff from large impermeable areas is the primary culprit when it comes to flooding City adopted Stormwater Management Ordinance in 2010: Requires new, large developments to manage stormwater onsite To date: has resulted in 250 projects spanning 430 acres citywide City is looking at incentivizing stormwater management financially, through our rate structure 13
14 New Development and Sanitary Flows Despite the City s growing population over the past 30 yrs, water consumption and resulting dry weather sewer flow have decreased (7% to 8% per decade) 14
15 Multiple critical priorities What is San Francisco s plan for flood minimization projects? Aging Infrastructure Seismic Reliability Combined Sewer Discharges Climate Change Odors, Noise & Visual Environmental Stewardship Stormwater Management & Flood Minimization SSIP includes flood resilience projects Folsom, Cayuga, Wawona, Victoria/Urbano, Joost/Foerster, etc. Ongoing R&R projects offer opportunities for incremental capacity improvements Flood Resilience Study informs policy discussions. Policy decision will drive future project prioritization, development, and implementation 15
16 Flood Resilience Study Findings FLOOD RESILIENCE STUDY PROCESS 16
17 Risk-Based Planning for Flood Resilience What is Flood Resilience? The capacity to anticipate risk, limit impact, and recover quickly when damage occurs from flooding events.
18 Flood Resilience Study Components Infrastructure: Risk-based framework to assess flood risk and identify/prioritize capital investments Costs for infrastructure (representative project sets for comparing policy options) Benefits of infrastructure (using economic impact) Provide this information to review the current LOS Guides decisions for what to do and what not to do Other flood risk reduction measures: Programmatic measures to build citywide flood resilience Provide a safety net for larger storms Strengthen partnership between SFPUC, residents, businesses, other City Departments. 18
19 Flood Resilience Approach CONDUCT ANALYSIS GRAPH COST-BENEFIT CURVES CONSIDER POLICY CHANGES DEVELOP PROJECTS TO IMPLEMENT Risk - Likelihood - Economic Consequence Project Cost - Structural - O&M FLOOD RESILIENCE STUDY In Parallel: Develop Programmatic and Operational Strategies FUTURE Capital Investments
20 Flood Risk Analysis: Design Storms Flood Protection Policy Options for Consideration Frequency (years) Rainfall (in) Annual Probability (%)
21 Flood Resilience Analysis: Basic Process 21
22 Economic Impact: Issue Areas Category Issue Area Impact Damages Indirect Effects First Order Losses 1 Damage to Property Structure High 2 Property Cleanup High 3 Damage to Vehicles and Content Loss High 4 Damage to Area Infrastructure Low 5 Population Disruption/Relocation Medium 6 Emergency Response Medium 7 Business Effects High 8 Transit +Traffic Disruption Medium 9 Interruption to Public Services Low 10 Temporary Loss of Community Amenities Low 11 Property Value Medium 12 Public Health Low 13 Office Staff Medium 22
23 Economic Models: Methods & Inputs Methods used standard federal approaches: 9 issue areas based on FEMA approaches Remaining 4 derive from USDOT, USEPA, and USACE Local data used to customize models to SF where possible: Local replacement cost estimates Inputs from City agencies GIS data on assets, activities, and costs Guidance from staff about thresholds for flood damage to assets and likely extent of impacts Field survey conducted to: Supplement data gaps in city GIS data Identify likelihood of flood-related characteristics (e.g. downsloping driveway) 23
24 Flood Resilience Study Findings FLOOD PROTECTION POLICY OPTIONS 24
25 Flood Protection Policy Options Each option is an assessment of what it would take to address flooding in a design storm. Investments prioritized to eliminate high/very high flood risk Each option is characterized by: A representation of infrastructure needs Cost, benefit, and benefit cost ratio Ratepayer impacts 25
26 Representative Infrastructure Project Sets Representative group of projects to manage flooding in select storms Developed at a high level Purpose: to provide comparative information and inform policy discussions Once policy is decided, specific projects need to be identified and developed for implementation. 26
27 Flood Protection Policy Options: Representative Infrastructure/Costs Project Set Components 1 Flood Protection Policy Option: 5-yr storm 10-yr storm 25-yr storm 50-yr storm 1 Representative Project Sets also include smaller projects not listed above, such as flow control, weirs, surface inlet features, and sealed manholes 100-yr storm Pipe, new/upsized (miles) Detention (MG) Pump Stations, new/improved (MGD) Outfall Expansion (number) Surface Detention (acres) Modified Street Grade (LF) 1,610 1,830 10,180 18,890 23,260 Project Life Cycle Cost ($B) $2.3 $3.7 $6.9 $10.5 $14.8
28 Benefit Cost Analysis
29 Benefit Cost Analysis
30 Benefit Cost Analysis
31 Benefit Cost Analysis
32 Ratepayer Impact Analysis
33 Flood Protection Policy Options
34 Flood Resilience Study Findings NEXT STEPS 34
35 Opportunities for Public Input on Flooding and Future Policy Discussion Feb 9 Commission Workshop Present Flooding + Flood Resilience background May 24 Commission Workshop Present Flood Resilience Study results and policy options 2017 Commission Workshop Staff recommendations for Flood Policy Oct / Nov 2 Public Meetings in 17 th /Folsom and Cayuga neighborhoods Mar 30 Public Open House #1 (Folsom) Apr 2 Public Open House #2 (Cayuga) Apr 12 CAC Wastewater Subcommittee Present RainReadySF + Flood Resilience info May 17 Public Workshop at special CAC meeting to present Flood Resilience Study results and policy options May 11 Flood Resilience study results online Jun - Dec Continued Outreach Phone survey Presentations to stakeholders Outreach via neighborhood events 35
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