PROJECT MANAGEMENT COURSE 5: PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT. G.N. Sandhy Widyasthana

Transcription

1 PROJECT MANAGEMENT COURSE 5: PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT G.N. Sandhy Widyasthana

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4 Process of identifying the specific actions to be performed to produce the project deliverables Decomposed work packages into smaller components called activities 4

5 Milestones A milestone is a significant event that normally has no duration. It often takes several activities and a lot of work to complete a milestone. Milestones are useful tools for setting schedule goals and monitoring progress. Examples include completion and customer sign off on key documents and completion of specific products. 5

6 Process of identifying and documenting relationships among the project activities. 6

7 PROJECT NETWORK DIAGRAMS Project network diagrams are the preferred technique for showing activity sequencing A project network diagram is a schematic display of the logical relationships among, or sequencing of, project activities 7 7 IS370 Project Management Dr Pat Halloran

8 SAMPLE ACTIVITY ON ARROW (AOA) NETWORK DIAGRAM FOR PROJECT X IS370 Project Management Dr Pat Halloran 8 8

9 ARROW DIAGRAMMING METHOD (ADM) Also called activity on arrow (AOA) project network diagrams Activities are represented by arrows Nodes or circles are the starting and ending points of activities Can only show finish to start dependencies 9 9 IS370 Project Management Dr Pat Halloran

10 Notation Activity on Arrow (AOA): Each arrow represents an activity & its precedence relationship(s) May require the use of dummy arrows if the activity has more than one successor task Nodes used only as end points for arrows Activity on Node (AON): Uses nodes to represent the activity Uses arrows to represent precedence relationships 10

11 AOA & AON Comparison 11

12 PROCESS FOR CREATING AOA DIAGRAMS 1. Find all of the activities that start at node 1. Draw their finish nodes and draw arrows between node 1 and those finish nodes. Put the activity letter or name and duration estimate on the associated arrow 2. Continuing drawing the network diagram, working from left to right. Look for bursts and merges. Bursts occur when a single node is followed by two or more activities. A merge occurs when two or more nodes precede a single node 3. Continue drawing the project network diagram until all activities are included on the diagram that have dependencies 4. As a rule of thumb, all arrowheads should face toward the right, and no arrows should cross on an AOA network diagram IS370 Project Management Dr Pat Halloran

13 PRECEDENCE DIAGRAMMING METHOD (PDM) Activities are represented by boxes Arrows show relationships between activities More popular than ADM method and used by project management software Better at showing different types of dependencies IS370 Project Management Dr Pat Halloran

14 TASK DEPENDENCY TYPES IS370 Project Management Dr Pat Halloran 14 14

15 SAMPLE PDM NETWORK DIAGRAM IS370 Project Management Dr Pat Halloran

16 Process of estimating the type and quantities of material, people, equipment or supplies required to perform each activity 16

17 GANTT Chart 17

18 GANTT CHART Pada tahun 1917, Henry Gantt mengembangkan sebuah metode untuk membantu penjadwalan job shops. Metode ini akhirnya terkenal dan dipakai sampai sekarang dengan nama Gantt Chart. Gantt Chart adalah suatu metode yang bernilai khususnya untuk proyekproyek dengan jumlah anggota tim yang sedikit. Gantt Chart merupakan suatu grafik dimana ditampilkan kotak-kotak yang mewakili setiap tugas dan panjang masing-masing setiap kotak menunjukkan waktu pengerjaan tugas-tugas tersebut dalam format pewaktuan tertentu seperti jam, hari, tanggal, minggu, bulan atau tahun. 18

19 Gantt Charts Gantt charts provide a standard format for displaying project schedule information by listing project activities and their corresponding start and finish dates in a calendar format Symbols include: A black diamond: milestones or significant events on a project with zero duration Thick black bars: summary tasks Lighter horizontal bars: tasks Arrows: dependencies between tasks 19

20 Gantt Chart for Project X 20

21 Gantt Chart for Software Launch Project 21

22 Sample Tracking Gantt Chart 22

23 Benefits of Gantt Charts Efficiency Increase Project tracking Set deadlines Communication Increase Coordination Increase Provides motivation through scheduling Encourages creativity 23

24 Features of Gantt Charts Easy to create Freehand Gantt charts Microsoft Excel Microsoft Project SmartDraw, Primavera, and other programs. Easy to modify and adjust Simple to understand 24

25 Disadvantages of Gantt Charts Activity descriptions often lack detail A lack of precedent and subsequent task relationships Does not allow for uncertain situations such as late or early finish times. 25

26 Gantt Chart Fundamentals Separate tasks are listed in vertical rows Time spans horizontally along the top Each task is represented by a bar along the time horizon 26

27 How to Create a Gantt Chart using Microsoft Project Enter Task Name Choose task duration Adjust start and end times List any resources to be used 27

28 Summary Gantt charts are visual representations of a project over time. Includes start, finish, and milestone dates. Useful in project planning and tracking. Helpful in resource communication and allocation 28

29 Process of approximating the number of work periods needed to complete individual activities with estimated resources 29

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31 PERT Project Evaluation & Review Techniques Definition: In PERT activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activity on arrow network construction Multiple time estimates Probabilistic activity times USED IN : Project management for non repetitive jobs (research and development work), where the time and cost estimates tend to be quite uncertain. This technique uses probabilistic time estimates. 31

32 PERT PERT is based on the assumption that an activity s duration follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an activity s duration distribution: pessimistic time (t p ) the time the activity would take if things did not go well most likely time (t m ) the consensus best estimate of the activity s duration optimistic time (t o ) the time the activity would take if things did go well Mean (expected time): t e = t p + 4 t m + t o 6 Variance: V t =σ 2 = t p - t o

33 PERT analysis Draw the network. Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path. The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal The standard deviation of the project duration probability distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and taking the square root of that sum Probability computations can now be made using the normal distribution table. 33

34 Probability computation Determine probability that project is completed within specified time x - µ Z = σ where µ = t p = project mean time σ = project standard mean time x = (proposed ) specified time 34

35 Normal Distribution of Project Time Probability Zσ µ = t p x Time 35

36 PERT Example Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) A B C A D A E A F B,C G B,C H E,F I E,F J D,H K G,I

37 PERT Example PERT Network D A E H J C B F I K G 37

38 PERT Example Activity Expected Time Variance A 6 4/9 B 4 4/9 C 3 0 D 5 1/9 E 1 1/36 F 4 1/9 G 2 4/9 H 6 1/9 I 5 1 J 3 1/9 K 5 4/9 38

39 PERT Example Activity ES EF LS LF Slack A *critical B C * D E F * G H I * J K * 39

40 PERT Example V path = V A + V C + V F + V I + V K = 4/ / /9 = 2 σ path = z = (24 23)/σ = (24 23)/1.414 =.71 From the Standard Normal Distribution table: P(z <.71) = =

41 A Simple Project Activity Immediate Expected Predecessor Time A - 5 B - 6 C A 4 D A, B 2 41

42 Project Network 42

43 Activity Immediate Expected Predecessor Time A - 5 B - 6 C A 4 D A, B 2 43

44 ES EF LS LF Slack Earliest Starting (time) Earliest Finishing Latest Starting Latest Finishing Extra Time 44

45 Earliest Starting/Finishing Times EF = ES + t 45

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47 LS = LF - t 47

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50 What if activity times are variable? a optimistic time m most likely time b pessimistic time t = E(T) expected time = (a + 4m + b)/6 V(T) variance = (b - a) 2 /36 50

51 Activity Time Expected Value and Variance a m b t V(T) A /36 B /36 C /36 D /36 51

52 Possible Paths and Statistics Path E(T) = t V(T) A - C 9 * 40/36 A - D 7 8/36 B - D 8 68/36 52

53 What is the probability that the project takes at least 10 days? What is the probability that the project takes less than 7 days? 53

54 10 9 Pt ( 10) = P z = Pz ( 0. 95) = = / 36 54

55 7 9 Pt ( 7) = P z = Pz ( 190. ) = = / 36 55

56 Process of analyzing activity sequences, durations, resource requirements, and schedule constraints to create the project schedule 56

57 CPM 57

58 CPM Critical Path Method Definition: In CPM activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activity on node network construction Single estimate of activity time Deterministic activity times USED IN : Production management for the jobs of repetitive in nature where the activity time estimates can be predicted with considerable certainty due to the existence of past experience. 58

59 Activity Slack Each event has two important times associated with it : Earliest time, Te, which is a calendar time when a event can occur when all the predecessor events completed at the earliest possible times Latest time, TL, which is the latest time the event can occur with out delaying the subsequent events and completion of project. Difference between the latest time and the earliest time of an event is the slack time for that event Positive slack : Slack is the amount of time an event can be delayed without delaying the project completion 59

60 CPM calculation Path A connected sequence of activities leading from the starting event to the ending event Critical Path The longest path (time); determines the project duration Critical Activities All of the activities that make up the critical path 60

61 Forward Pass Earliest Start Time (ES) earliest time an activity can start ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors Earliest finish time (EF) earliest time an activity can finish earliest start time plus activity time EF= ES + t Backward Pass Latest Start Time (LS) Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time LS= LF t Latest finish time (LF) latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors 61

62 Nama kegiatan atau simbol Earliest Start ES A EF Earliest Finish Latest Start LS 2 LF Latest Finish Lamanya kegiatan 62

63 CPM analysis Draw the CPM network Analyze the paths through the network Determine the float for each activity Compute the activity s float float = LS ES = LF EF Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity can be delay in its completion before it becomes a critical activity, i.e., delays completion of the project Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no slack i.e.. Zero slack Longest path through a network Find the project duration is minimum project completion time 63

64 CPM Example: CPM Network a, 6 f, 15 g, 17 h, 9 i, 6 b, 8 c, 5 d, 13 e, 9 j, 12 64

65 CPM Example ES and EF Times a, f, 15 g, 17 h, 9 i, 6 b, c, d, 13 e, 9 j, 12 65

66 CPM Example ES and EF Times a, f, g, 17 h, i, 6 b, c, d, e, j, 12 66

67 CPM Example ES and EF Times a, b, c, f, g, 17 h, i, d, 13 e, j, Project s s EF = 33 67

68 CPM Example LS and LF Times a, b, c, e, f, d, g, 17 i, j, 12 h,

69 CPM Example LS and LF Times a, b, c, f, g, d, e, i, j, 12 h,

70 CPM Example Float a, b, c, f, h, g, i, d, 13 j, e,

71 CPM Example Critical Path a, 6 f, 15 g, 17 h, 9 i, 6 b, 8 c, 5 d, 13 e, 9 j, 12 71

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73 Process of monitoring the status of the project to update project progress and manage changes to the schedule baseline 73

74 How To Earned Value Management Overview Earned Value Management (EVM) is a management methodology for integrating scope, schedule and resources, and for objectively measuring project performance and progress. Performance is measured by determining the budgeted cost of work performed (i.e. earned value) and comparing it to the actual cost of work performed (i.e. actual cost). Progress is measured by comparing the earned value to the planned value. Source: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) Third Edition 2004 Example: Project Budget: $400K Project Schedule: 4 months (= Baseline Duration) At the 3 month checkpoint: Spent: $200K Work completed: $100K Earned Value Management helps you to report how the project is doing in terms of cost and schedule? 74

75 Earned Value Management Terms and Formulas Terms and Formulas Alternative Definition Example: Project Budget: $400K Project Schedule: 4 months At the 3 month checkpoint: Spent: $200K Work completed: $100K Example Earned Value (EV) Actual Cost (AC) Planned Value (PV) Cost Variance (CV) = EV AC Schedule Variance (SV) = EV PV Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV/AC Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = EV/PV Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) i.e. the budgeted cost to date x % complete Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) i.e. actual cost of work performed to date Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) i.e. the estimated value of work to be performed Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP)/ Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP)/ Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) $100K $200K $300K $100K $200K = ($100K) $100K $300K = ($200K) $100K/$200K = 0.5 i.e. 50% $100K/$300K = 0.33 i.e 33% Revised Total Duration Baseline Duration/Schedule Performance Index 4/ = 12 months

76 Earned Value Management Chart for project example Month Checkpoint CV = EV AC = (100K) SV = EV PV = (200K) CPI = EV/AC = (50%) SPI = EV/PV = (33%) Example: Project Budget: $400K Project Schedule: 4 months At the 3 month checkpoint: Spent: $200K Work completed: $100K Budget PV Actual Cost Earned Value J F M A M J J A S O N D Revised Total Duration = Baseline Duration/SPI = 4/0.33 = 12 months 76

77 Referensi PM BOK, Project Management Body Of Knowledge Fourth Edition, Project Management Institute 77

78 Case 4 Resume Project Cost Management 78

79 G.N. Sandhy Widyasthana