Mohammed Rafiuddin CEO and General Manager, BIOSI Biohazards Solutions Innovators

Transcription

1 Mohammed Rafiuddin CEO and General Manager, BIOSI Biohazards Solutions Innovators

2 Profile of Mohammed Rafiuddin Mohammed is an active member of AACE International since 2006 with 30 years of experience in project management, contracts management, project controls. He is currently serving as CEO and General Manager of BIOSI, a Health Care Management Company. He is joining the AACE International board from June 2017 to serve as VP International regions. Mohammed was the Director Region 7 comprising Middle east and North Africa for the term He served as President of Arabian Gulf Section for two terms and Mohammed holds a Bachelor Degree in Civil Engineering from Osmania University, India and a Master Degree in Engineering Management from KFUPM, Saudi Arabia. He holds PMP,CCP and PSP certifications; is a lead instructor teaching for CCP, PSP and Risk Management certifications. Mohammed is passionate about knowledge sharing and mentoring..

3 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls scenario Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusion and References

4 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusions and References

5 What is a project? What is project management? Is a temporary endeavor that has a start and end date Has some objectives or goals that can be defined, measured and are to be achieved Objectives are usually measured in terms of time and cost or a combination of both. Usually a third dimension of Quality is required that is very difficult to measure Project Management is management of the parameters of cost and time in order to achieve the objectives Project Controls, as a subset of project management, is a relatively new discipline that focuses on time and cost management and is influenced by the use of technology

6 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls scenario Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusions and References

7 Modern day project controls scenario Is a common sight to see a mix of young system literate project controllers mix up with experienced less computer literate Accelerating transfer of experience and systems knowledge is a major challenge System skills like Primavera are becoming an entry level requirement to project controls rather than project delivery background Project Controllers are expected to plan the project as well as take care of Cost engineering issues like Client invoices, Budgets and project P and L. Most of the PCMs are from Finance background and a very few are Engineers.

8 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusions and References

9 Project management myths Project Management is too complex to be computerized. This involves leadership, teamwork using judgment, problem solving which cannot be computerized. Project management is an art of integrating flair, taking initiatives and intuitive judgment with the efficient data processing capabilities of computer as tools Project planning never works as things always go wrong Project planning is not done to ensure that everything goes right but a project plan is devised to show when things go wrong Negative floats, variances and schedule slippages prompt you to assess the implications and take corrective actions to bring the project back on course.

10 Project management myths Project planners don t know enough about project management to produce good plans Project planning is considered as service to the project manager Majority of planners are software jockeys, just out of college, who know only about planning techniques whereas project managers have gained their position via university of life. There is a false belief that project planning is just a collection of techniques. What is project planning? Project planning is a combination of tools and experience and is a teamwork exercise. One of the team members who is a systems expert gathers all the relevant information and presents that in a form that suits the technique With Modern day fast track projects and project delivery pressures, can the project managers avoid embracing these jockeys?

11 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusions and References

12 Typical Project management tasks Plan the work Control the progress Control Resources and costs Lead the project team Coordinate subcontractors and specialists For some tasks, project manager has to rely on his soft skills and for some he is aided by the use of computers.

13 Plan the work Determine and clarify the objectives Determine how the objectives can be achieved What are the activities that are to be performed? What are the resources needed to achieve the objectives? Estimate how long activities need to be performed i.e Activity durations which are usually not deterministic ( uncertain) Activity durations are determined based on the judgment of the project manager /team taking feedback from the previous projects.

14 B. Control the progress As work progress project team wants to compare what was planned and what is achieved. The main question PM team would ask is how much more is to be achieved Progress data is fed into the computer and a status report is generated that helps the PM team analyze and take corrective action if required in order to meet the objectives PM team can devise alternative ways to meet the objectives and can use computer to run different what-if scenarios ( monte carlo simulation)

15 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusions and References

16 Current scenario External resource market place or education system produces one dimensional specialist like planners, cost engineers, Estimators that do not suit the modern day project controls discipline. Planners can only plan the project and develop the schedule Cost Engineers can only take care of Project accounting aspects Estimators have no clue of planning and scheduling Modern project controls requirement Project controls Manager or Project Controls Engineer is responsible for project estimating, change management, project billing, planning and scheduling Integrated techniques like Earned value Analysis are extensively used

17 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusions and References

18 Earned Value Analysis The system that allows the review of Cost and Schedule performance together is Earned Value System The earned value system defines these terms as follows: Budgeted work hours or $ to date represent what is planned to be done. This is called Budgeted cost for work scheduled (BCWS) or Planned Value (PV) Earned work hours or $ to date represent what was done. This is called Budgeted cost for work performed (BCWP) or Earned Value (EV) Actual work hours or $ to date represent the cost incurred. This is called Actual cost of work performed (ACWP) or Actual cost ( AC)

19 Earned Value Analysis

20 Schedule Performance A comparison of what was done to what was planned. In other words, work hours budgeted and earned. If the budgeted work hours are less than the earned work hours, it means more was done than planned, and the project is ahead of schedule. The reverse would place the project behind schedule 1. Schedule variance (SV) = BCWP - BCWS 2. Schedule performance Index (SPI) = BCWP/BCWS Cost Performance A comparison of what was done to the cost incurred. To do this, earned work hours are compared to actual work hours. If the cost incurred were greater than what was done, the project has overrun its budget. 1. Cost variance (CV) = BCWP - ACWP 2. Cost performance index (CPI) = BCWP/ACWP

21 Outline Overview of Project Management Modern day project controls Project management myths Interaction of management and system skills One dimensional specialization Integrated project control techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis Schedule example Conclusions and References

22 Schedule Risk Analysis background Management of most projects is schedule driven Despite all the PM knowledge, sophisticated software and experience people on board, project schedules more often than not overrun their targets Schedule slippages can result in change of critical paths which in turn can impact the planned execution strategy The reasons could be Imposed unrealistic targets Completeness/Correctness of logical activity sequencing Improper use of constraints Inadequate resource loading Fundamentally the CPM technique itself

23 Evaluation of CPM technique Activity durations are defined by single estimated values, often viewed as most likely value, with out considering the uncertainty, which would mean activities may not go as planned but may take more or less time to complete CPM takes ASAP approach indicating optimistic result Project completion date gets predicted and is regarded as a certain, solid commitment against which a number of project performance targets are established The variability of activity durations enhanced by the complexities of their logical relationships often impacts major milestones or overall schedule. This impact may take place between two reporting periods or as small incremental changes over a longer period

24 Evaluation of CPM technique

25 Introduction to Schedule Risk Analysis With probabilistic approach, unanswered questions are addressed Uncertain durations are defined by three point estimates.(optimistic, likely and pessimistic) Durations are expressed as PDF ( Probability distribution functions) The range of expected values are obtained by simulation Benefits of Schedule Risk Analysis: Provides range of possible completion dates along with corresponding probabilities Provides the extent of possible overruns and the required contingency Identifies the areas of greatest risks Provides inputs to risk response plans

26 Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis Probabilistic approach of Schedule risk analysis does not replace CPM schedule but takes it beyond its reach by addressing the uncertainties and improve them in taking informed decisions With this schedule can be called risk adjusted schedule Risk inputs and activity duration ranges Risk inputs into the model can be in a number of ways depending upon the tool (@Risk or Primavera Risk Analysis) being used Assess the activity duration as a three point estimate Choose /Determine appropriate PDF

27 Simulation, Reporting and Decision making Simulation is performed by Primavera risk analysis, a Monte Carlo based simulation technique. However, there are many contemporary soft wares based on Monte Carlo technique for project As discussed, the results of the simulation are to be interpreted and analyzed to look for the answers to questions like Are the major milestones and other completion dates achievable or feasible Whether the project completion date is most likely or not How much or how many days of contingency needed to bring the completion date to an acceptable risk tolerance level

28 Deterministic Single Logic path schedule Above is a simple single logic path schedule with sequential activities in FS relationship. As the activity durations are fixed with no overlaps, the sum of activity durations is the project duration, with CPM predicting the finish date

29 Probabilistic Single Logic path schedule The introduction of probabilistic approach, with activity durations taking any value between the minimum and the maximum, gives a number of project finish dates

30 Triangular Probability Distribution Function Above graph shows the triangular distribution function ( minimum, Likely and Maximum) chosen for one activity ( A1010)

31 Conclusion Control the system and not let the system control you. No software or system can replace personal judgement and expertise. Education is relatively cheaper but experience is extremely costly With very aggressive project delivery requirements, even the experienced lot have to embrace technology

32 Soft wares Primavera P6 Primavera Risk for Excel Books and Articles Decision Analysis for the professional, Peter Mcnamee