for Major Infrastructure Projects

Transcription

1 for Major Infrastructure Projects Presented by: Pedram Daneshmand Senior Associate Director 4 th Annual Contract Selection and Risk for Major Projects, March 2011

2 Agenda Brief Introduction Project Delivery Myths Project Delivery Facts Top 5 Causes of Failure PTM, PCM and Project Risk Management (PRM) S/C/R Integration Process S/C/R Integration Outcomes Case Study for Major Infrastructure Projects 2

3 At the end of today you will Know more about Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) for project schedule/cost/risk management See a technical approach to analyse risks and opportunities A better understanding of Think about how to use these tools for YOUR PROJECT. for Major Infrastructure Projects 3

4 bluevisions Introduction International consultancy with offices Australia-wide, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Singapore Project Management Services focused on increasing certainty and reducing risk including; Governance, Planning & Controls, Contract Services & Training Our experience with construction: Rail Road Telecommunications Commercial Water Engineering Health Federal, State & Local gov for Major Infrastructure Projects 4

5 Project Delivery: Myths We have a good PM system in place, don t worry. Trust our very experienced team. Everything s fine. No problem, everything is under control. No worries, we have been there, done that. Please, we don t need anything new. Another new technology, another tool, again! So, they know what they are talking about. Right? for Major Infrastructure Projects 5

6 Project Delivery: Facts Of the 20,821 projects that were closed in the past 12 months in the firms surveyed (by pmsolutions, 2011), 37% were at risk and either recovered or failed! Average $ at risk per firm: $74 million for Major Infrastructure Projects 6

7 Project Delivery: Facts Australian oil project, Kipper Development including the Tuna and dturrum ventures: 1 year delay $US1.7B over budget estimate of $US2.7 The Australian, 20/Jan/2011/2011 for Major Infrastructure Projects 7

8 Project Delivery: Facts Woodside Pluto LNG Project, WA The first LNG shipment has been delayed 6 months (from a Mar 11 target to Sep 11), $2B cost blowout on the original forecast of $12B. The Australian, 01/Dec/2010/2010 for Major Infrastructure Projects 8

9 Project Delivery: Facts Australia s resources sector has been hit by more than $8B in mega-project cost blowouts in the past 6 years News.com.au, 10/Jan/2011/2011 for Major Infrastructure Projects 9

10 Project Delivery: Facts Railway Stations High-rise Buildings 79% behind schedule 67% behind schedule Ref: Managing the Risk of Delayed Completion in the 21 st Century, Survey by Chartered Institute t of Building (CIOB), 2007 for Major Infrastructure Projects 10

11 Project Delivery: Facts Engineering Projects Oil and Gas Projects 42% behind schedule 81% behind schedule Ref: Managing the Risk of Delayed Completion in the 21 st Century, Survey by Chartered Institute t of Building (CIOB), 2007 for Major Infrastructure Projects 11

12 Project Delivery: Facts A bar-chart 54% Partially/Fully linked 22% Minutes of meetings 11% Correspondence 8% Flow Chart 3% Time Chainage 1% Line of Balance 1% Planning & Controls Tools Ref: Managing the Risk of Delayed Completion in the 21 st Century, Survey by Chartered Institute t of Building (CIOB), 2007 for Major Infrastructure Projects 12

13 Myths vs Facts I want to be confident in my project delivery. What can I do???? for Major Infrastructure Projects 13

14 Top 5 Causes of Failure REQUIREMENTS: Unclear, lack of agreement, lack of priority, contradictory, ambiguous, imprecise RESOURCES: Lack of resources, resource conflicts, turnover of key resources, poor planning SCHEDULES: Too tight, unrealistic, overly optimistic PLANNING: Based on insufficient data, missing items, insufficient i details, poor estimate t RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES: Unidentified or assumed, not managed* * Ref: Strategies for Project Recovery A PM Solutions Research Report pmsolutions survey, 2011 for Major Infrastructure Projects 14

15 Schedule, Cost, Risks COST SCHEDULE RISK for Major Infrastructure Projects 15

16 Project Time Management (PTM) SCHEDULE for Major Infrastructure Projects 16

17 PTM Process Activity Definition Activity Sequencing (logic) Activity Resource Estimating Activity Duration Estimating Schedule Development Schedule Control PMBOK, 2004 for Major Infrastructure Projects 17

18 PTM Schedule Development The Schedule Development process includes selecting a Scheduling Method, Scheduling Tool, incorporating project specific data within that scheduling tool to develop project specific Schedule Model, and generating Project Schedule. PMI The Practice Standard d for Scheduling, 2007 for Major Infrastructure Projects 18

19 PTM Schedule Development PMI The Practice Standard d for Scheduling, 2007 for Major Infrastructure Projects 19

20 PTM Schedule Dev. Methods Logic-based Scheduling Methods (LSM) Deterministic Techniques E.g. Critical Path Method (CPM), Resource Optimisation, Critical Chain Method (CCM), etc. Stochastic ti Techniques E.g. Probabilistic Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), PNET, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), etc. Repetitive Scheduling Methods (RSM) Line of Balance (LOB) Flowline Method for Major Infrastructure Projects 20

21 PTM Schedule Dev. Inputs Planners develop the project schedule by using: Available templates Available quantities, resources and productivity rates Available work/scope statements Available construction logic, and Other assumptions e.g. calendars, PMP, etc. With all those uncertainties in the inputs and the possible risks and opportunities in the schedule, the question is, how confident we are in this schedule? for Major Infrastructure Projects 21

22 PTM Schedule Dev. Outputs The outputs of Schedule Development process are: (Deterministic) Project Schedule (Deterministic) Schedule Model Data (Deterministic) Schedule Baseline (Deterministic) Resource Requirements How confident we are in this schedule? for Major Infrastructure Projects 22

23 PTM Major Challenges Uncertainties due to assumptions Logic, constraints, resources, calendars and activity durations are not always clear and agreed What-If Scenarios, and Risks and Opportunities To have a realistic schedule, the Schedule Development process should ldbe improved dby using Schedule Shdl Risk ik Analysis. In other words Project Time Management and Project Risk Management need to be integrated! for Major Infrastructure Projects 23

24 Project Cost Management (PCM) COST for Major Infrastructure Projects 24

25 PCM Process Cost Estimating developing an approximation of the costs of the resources needed to complete project activities. i i Cost Budgeting aggregating the estimated costs of individual id activities iti or work packages to establish a cost baseline. Cost Control influencing the factors that create cost variances and controlling changes to the project budget. PMBOK, 2004 for Major Infrastructure Projects 25

26 PCM Tools & Techniques Analogous Estimating Determine Resource Cost Rates Bottom-up Estimating Parametric Estimating Project Management Software Vendor Bid Analysis Reserve Analysis Cost of Quality for Major Infrastructure Projects 26

27 PCM Inputs Estimators develop the project estimate by using: Available organisational process assets Available quantities, resources and productivity rates Available work/scope statements Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), and Other assumptions/documents e.g. PMP, etc. All these add uncertainties to the estimate and reduce the confidence level. What about risks and opportunities in the total project cost? for Major Infrastructure Projects 27

28 PCM Outputs The outputs of the Cost Estimating process are: (Deterministic) Activity Cost Estimate (Deterministic) Total Project Cost (Deterministic) Cost Model Data (Deterministic) Cost Baseline (Deterministic) Resource Requirements With all these uncertainties in the inputs and the possible risks and opportunities in the estimate, the question is, how confident we are in this estimate? for Major Infrastructure Projects 28

29 PCM Software Software, like cost estimating software applications, computerised spreadsheets, and simulations and statistical i tools are widely used to assist with cost estimating. To have a realistic estimate, the Cost Estimating process should ldbe improved dby using Cost Risk ikanalysis (CRA). In other words Project Cost Management (PCM) and Project Risk Management (PRM) need to be integrated! for Major Infrastructure Projects 29

30 Project Risk Management (PRM) RISK for Major Infrastructure Projects 30

31 PRM Process ND CONS SULT COMMUN NICATE A Establish Context Identify Risks Analyse Risks Evaluate Risks Treat Risks RIS SK ASSESS SMENT MONI ITOR AND REVIEW AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, Risk Management Principles i and guidelines for Major Infrastructure Projects 31

32 PCM Risk Assessment Risk Assessment includes: Risk Identification (both Uncertainties and Events) Risk Analysis Qualitative Semi Quantitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Evaluation The goal is to have a better understanding of risks / opportunities and their overall impact on project schedule and cost to see the plan in ONE integrated picture. for Major Infrastructure Projects 32

33 PTM, PCM and PRM Every Schedule has uncertainties and assumptions Every Cost Estimate has uncertainties and assumptions, and Every Project has risks and opportunities To have a confident plan, Project Time Management (PTM), Project Cost Management (PCM) and Project Risk Management (PRM) need to be integrated! for Major Infrastructure Projects 33

34 PTM, PCM and PRM COST SCHEDULE RISK for Major Infrastructure Projects 34

35 S/C/R Integration Overview Available data gathering and validation Schedule and Cost Estimate Development Risks & Opportunities Workshop/s (team approach) S/C/R Integration R&O Register incl. both Uncertainties and Events Schedule Cost Risk Model Simulation Results and Discussions Re-Modelling Monitoring & Controls for Major Infrastructure Projects 35

36 S/C/R Integration Data Required information for a SCR Integration: Well-developed project scope Quality estimate excl. contingency and escalation Good Schedule reflecting the estimate Risk Mgmt policy/processes in your organisation Risk checklist incl. typical risks and opportunities Risk & Opportunities Template Schedule/Cost Risk Templates/Models, and Sample available reports for Major Infrastructure Projects 36

37 S/C/R Integration Review How to review the deterministic Schedule & Cost? Validation of Quantities (most likely) Productivity Rates (most likely) Durations (most likely) Resource Cost Rates (most likely) Constraints (Contractual or Management) Logic network and Work Statements, and Reasonable Critical Path for Major Infrastructure Projects 37

38 S/C/R Integration R&O Register The elements of the R&O Register: The identified risks & opportunities Likelihood of the identified risks and opportunities Impacted activities Schedule and/or Cost Impact/s Schedule and/or Cost Variations Correlation of risks and opportunities to one another Notes, etc. for Major Infrastructure Projects 38

39 S/C/R Integration Model Major risks and opportunities been identified Uncertainties and Events The likelihood and impacts been assessed Risk Matrix aligned with the company s risk management policy Impacts checked against the allocated calendars Correlations between risks been identified Stage the opportunities if required, and Duplications are minimised and addressed for Major Infrastructure Projects 39

40 S/C/R Integration Special Conditions Special conditions that require extra attention: Probabilistic Branching which considers the situation where the outcome of an event can cause two or multiple possible courses of activities Correlation between risks Positive Correlation: occurs when one risk goes higher, so must the other. Negative or Adverse Correlation: occurs when one risk increases, the other must decrease. Inclement Weather or other external influences for Major Infrastructure Projects 40

41 S/C/R Integration Simulation The S/C/R Model should be simulated with multiple scenarios of the project using random samplings of the relevant risks and opportunities i considering i their probability and impact. Two popular methods: Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) faster method but has a larger possibility of sampling error Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) slower method but less sampling errors for Major Infrastructure Projects 41

42 S/C/R Integration Treatment Plan The accuracy of the S/C/R Integration outcomes should be improved through a number of iterations of this process. Based on the initial results, the team should: Review the R&O Register and make modifications df where required Make changes to the Model accordingly Run the simulation again and repeat the process to achieve the most cost effective risk mitigation plan Finalise the Risk Treatment Plan as well as the Contingency Plan Management Approval, and Communicate this plan with the team and then monitor it for Major Infrastructure Projects 42

43 Case Study Project: Electricity Transmission Cable Tunnel Part of $1B Program Tier 1 Contractor Scope: Tunnel Construction Net Connections Cable Installation Tunnel Entrance Ventilation Intake for Major Infrastructure Projects 43

44 Case Study Schedule Review Confidential for Major Infrastructure Projects 44

45 Case Study R&O Register for Major Infrastructure Projects 45

46 Case Study S/C/R Model for Major Infrastructure Projects 46

47 Case Study S/C/R Model or (LDF) t Day Facto Lost for Major Infrastructure Projects 47

48 Case Study MCS Simulation Confidential Confidential for Major Infrastructure Projects 48

49 Case Study Simulation Results Confidential Deterministic PC Date 99% ---17/Dec/14 50% /Nov/14 Contingency Plan for Major Infrastructure Projects 49

50 Case Study PC Dates Confidential Deterministic PC Date 99% ---17/Dec/14 50% /Nov/14 for Major Infrastructure Projects 50

51 Case Study Criticality Index Confidential AL CRITICA Always C for Major Infrastructure Projects 51

52 Case Study Criticality Path Confidential The Criticality Path Report highlights the path through the project containing the tasks with the highest Criticality Index values. Percent Criticality is the probability that an activity will be on the critical path; this indicates the relative importance of the activity to other activities in the programme. for Major Infrastructure Projects 52

53 Case Study Criticality Distribution Confidential % of Tasks Critical 25.9 % Criticality Distribution Profile plots the spread of the Criticality Index in a project to give an indication of the number and threat of near to critical path. A high percentage (more than 40%) indicates a relatively l tight programme. for Major Infrastructure Projects 53

54 S/C/R Integration Benefits to bottom line Increase certainty in achieving project outcomes P&C System: Scope, Time, Cost, & Risk Learn from lessons Consistency across multiple l ventures and repeatability Demonstrate capability and excellence to clients Reduce risks and maximise Opportunities Drive proactively Increase efficiency and optimise Time, Cost, & Risk End to end transparency Control change for Major Infrastructure Projects 54

55 Question, Comment? for Major Infrastructure Projects 55