PROJECT COST MANAGEMENT

Transcription

1 PROJECT COST MANAGEMENT For the PMP Exam using PMBOK Guide 5 th Edition PMI, PMP, PMBOK Guide are registered trade marks of Project Management Institute, Inc. 1

2 Contacts Name: Khaled El-Nakib, PMP, PMI-RMP URL: Objectives By the end of the two sessions we will be able to understand: - Accounting Fundamentals - Cost Project Management Processes 2

3 ACCOUNTING FUNDAMENTALS Types of cost Variable Cost: Any cost that changes with the amount of production or the amount of work. Examples include the cost of material, supplies and wages 3

4 Types of cost (continued) Fixed Cost Costs that do not change as production changes, Examples include setup, rental, etc. Types of cost (continued) Direct Cost Costs that are directly attributable to the work on the project. Examples are team travel, team Wages, recognition and costs of material used on the project. 4

5 Types of cost (continued) Indirect Costs: Overhead items or costs incurred for the benefit of more then one project. Examples include taxes, fringe benefits and janitorial services. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) LCC is the total cost to the organization for the ownership and acquisition of the product over its full life cycle. LCC = R&D costs + production cost + construction cost + operation and maintenance cost + product retirement and phase-out cost. 5

6 Value Analysis A.K.A. Value Engineering is a creative approach used to optimize life-cycle costs, save time, increase profits, improve quality, expand market share, solve problems, and/or use resources more effectively (i.e. find a less costly way to do the some scope of work) It requires the systematic use of techniques to identify the required project functions, assign values to these functions and provide functions at the lowest overall cost without loss of performance Cost vs. Price Cost Estimating is the determination of approximately how much will it cost the performing organization to provide the product or service involved. Pricing is a business decision that determines how much to charge for the product or service Price = Cost + profit 6

7 Law of Diminishing Returns The more you put into something, the less you get out of it. For example, adding twice as many resources to an activity may not get the activity done in half the time. COST MANAGEMENT PROCESSES 7

8 Project Cost Management Project Cost Management includes the processes involved in estimating, budgeting, and controlling costs so that the project can be completed within the approved budget However, we should consider project decisions on the cost of using, maintaining, and supporting the product, service, or result of the project (LCC) Project Cost Management Plan Cost Management Estimate Costs Determine Budget Control Costs Planning Process Group Monitoring and Controlling 8

9 7.1 - Plan Cost Management The process that establishes the policies, procedures, and documentation for planning, managing, expanding, and controlling project costs, IN-1: Project Management Plan Scope baseline Schedule baseline 9

10 IN-2: Project Charter The project charter is the document issued by the project initiator or sponsor that formally authorizes the existence of a project and provide the project manager with the authority to apply organizational resources to the activities IN-3: Enterprise Environmental Factors Market Conditions Currency exchange rates, and rate stability 10

11 IN-4: Organizational Process Assets Financial control procedures Historical information Financial databases Cost estimating and budgeting policies and procedures TT-1: Expert Judgment Expert judgment refers to input received from knowledge and experienced parties 11

12 TT-2: Analytical Techniques Choosing among alternatives to fund the project such as: - Self-Funding - Funding with debt Choose among alternative ways to finance resources such as: - Purchasing - Renting or leasing TT-3: Meetings Project team may attend project meetings to develop the cost management plan. 12

13 Out-1: Cost Management plan It may include: - Level of accuracy - Units of measure - Staff hours, days, weeks, etc., for each resource - Organizational procedures links - Control accounts/organization s accounting system - Controls thresholds - Agreed amount of variation - Earned Value rules - Reporting formats - Process descriptions Estimate Cost Estimate costs is the process of developing an approximation of the monetary resources needed to complete each schedule. In approximating costs, the estimator considers the possible causes of variation of the cost estimates, including risk. 13

14 Estimate Cost (continued) Types of estimates Accuracy of estimates increases as additional details available 1. Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Estimate range (-25% to +75%) 2. Definitive Estimate Estimate range (-5% to +10%) Estimate Cost (continued) Cost Estimating is done for all resources including, but not limited to, labor, materials, equipments, services, inflation, and contingency 14

15 IN-1: Cost Management Plan The cost management plan defines how project costs will be managed and controlled IN-2: Human Resource Plan Project staffing attributes, personnel rate, and related rewards/recognition are necessary components for developing the project cost estimate. 15

16 IN-3: Scope Baseline Scope Statement - Product scope - Requirements - Constraints - Assumptions - Safety requirements - Acceptance criteria Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Work Breakdown Dictionary IN-4: Project Schedule The type and quantity of resources and the amount of time which those resources are applied to complete the work of the project are major factors in determining the project cost. 16

17 IN-5: Risk Register The risk register should be reviewed to consider risk response costs such as mitigation or transfer. IN-6: Enterprise Environmental Factors Marketplace Conditions Commercial Databases 17

18 IN-7: Organizational Process Assets Cost estimating policies Cost estimating templates Historical information Lessons learned TT-1: Expert Judgment Project Team can refer to expert judgment to identify the influence of various factors on estimates such as inflation, risk factors, and market conditions. 18

19 TT-2: Analogous estimating Means using actual cost of previous, similar projects as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project Frequently used in case of limited amount of detailed information TT-3: Parametric Estimating It uses a statistical relationship between historical data and other variables such as lines of code per hour, square meter in construction, hotel room, patients beds in hospitals. 19

20 TT-4: Bottom-Up Estimating This technique estimates costs associated with every activity individually and then rolls them up to derive a total project estimate TT-5: Three-points estimate (PERT) Activity Duration Estimation - Most optimistic completion time. This time assumes that everything will go according to plan and with minimal difficulties - Most pessimistic completion time. This time assumes that everything will not go according to plan and maximum difficulties will develop - Most likely completion time. This is the time that, in the mind of the functional manager, would most often occur should this effort be reported over and over again 20

21 TT-6: Reserve Analysis Contingency reserves (known unknowns) Management reserves (unknown unknowns) TT-7: Cost of Quality Quality costs are the total costs incurred by the investment in preventing nonconformance to requirement, appraising the product or service for conformance to requirements and failing to meet requirements (rework). 21

22 TT-8: Project Management Software Such as cost estimating software and simulation and statistical tools facilitate rapid consideration of various cost estimate alternatives TT-9: Vendor Bid Analysis This is a process of gathering information from responses from prequalified vendors to establish cost estimates. 22

23 TT-10: Group Decision Making Techniques Unanimity (complete agreement by everyone) Majority (one vote more than 50% of total votes) Plurality (largest number of votes) Dictatorship (one person makes the decision) Out-1: Activity Cost Estimates An activity cost estimate is a quantitative assessment of likely costs of the resources required to complete schedule activities. 23

24 Out-2: Basis of Estimate Documentation of the basis for estimate Documentation of all assumptions made Documentation of any known constraints Indication of the range of possible estimates Indication of the confidence level of the final estimates Out-3: Project Documents Updates Project documents many be updated such as risk register. 24

25 7.3 - Determine Budget Determine Budget is the process of aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities or work package to establish an authorized cost baseline. Inputs 1. Cost management plan 2. Scope baseline 3. Activity cost estimates 4. Basis of estimate 5. Project schedule 6. Resource calendars 7. Risk register 8. Agreements 9. Organizational process assets 25

26 TT-1: Cost aggregation Cost estimate are aggregated by work packages in accordance to the WBS. The work package cost estimates are then aggregated for the higher component levels of the WBS (such as control accounts) and ultimately for the entire project. TT-2: Reserve analysis Contingency reserves (known unknowns) Management reserves (unknown unknowns) 26

27 TT-3: Expert Judgment Judgment provided based upon expertise in an application area, knowledge area, industry, or similar project. TT-4: Historical Relationship Analogous Estimate Parametric Estimate 27

28 TT-4: Funding limit reconciliation Funding limit reconciliation involves reconciling the amount of funds spent with the amount of funds budgeted for the project. Reconciling the project expenses will require adjusting the schedule so that the expenses can be smoothed Cost baseline, expenditure and funding requirement Management Reserve 28

29 Out-1:Cost Baseline The Cost Baseline is a Time Phased Budget that is used as a basis against which to measure, monitor, and control overall cost performance on the project. Out-2: Project funding requirements Funding requirements, total and periodic, are derived from the cot baseline and can be established to exceed, usually by a margin, to allow for either early progress or cost overrun. 29

30 Out-3: Project Document Updates Risk register Cost estimates Project schedule Control Costs Purpose of Cost Control includes: - Influencing factors creating changes - Ensuring requested changes are approved - Manage actual changes when and as they occur - Monitor cost performance - Analyze cost variance root cause - Bring expected cost overrun within acceptable limit 30

31 Earned Value Technique (EVT) EVT helps in answering the following questions: - Are we ahead or behind schedule? - How efficiently are we using our time? - When is the project likely to be completed? - Are we currently under or over budget? - How efficiently are we using our resources? - What is the remaining likely to cost? - What is the entire project likely to cost? - How much will we be under or over budget at the end? Earned Value Technique (EVT) Planned Value (PV) is the cost of work that has been budgeted for a schedule activity or WBS component to be completed during a given time period Earned Value (EV) is the value of the work (schedule activity or WBS component)completed to date as it compares to the budgeted amount assigned to the work component Actual Cost (AC) is the cost of completing the work (a schedule activity or WBS component) in a given time period 31

32 Earned Value Technique (EVT) (continued) Bar Chart A EC=$20, %, 20,000 AC EC=$46, %, 46,000 AC B EC=$72,000 C 50%, 42,000 AC EC=$18,000 D 0% EC=$14,000 E 0% EC = Estimated Cost Months AC = Actual Cost Earned Value Technique (EVT) (continued) PV = (A + B + C/3) = $20,000 + $46,000 + $24,000 = $90,000 EV = (A + B + C/2) = $20, , ,000 = $102,000 AC = (A + B + 42,000) = $20, , ,000 = $108,000 32

33 Earned Value Technique (EVT) SV = EV PV = 102,000 90,000 = 12,000 CV = EV AC = 102, ,000 = -6,000 SPI= EV/PV = 102,000/90,000 = 1.13 CPI= EV/AC = 102,000/108,000 = 0.94 Interpretation of Variances Under Budget Over Ahead Schedule Behind +CV +SV +CV -SV -CV +SV -CV -SV 33

34 Earned Value Technique (EVT) (continued) Estimate at Completion EAC In case of repeated variance EAC = BAC/CPI In case of new estimate for remaining work EAC = AC + (ETC) In case of unrepeated variance EAC = AC + (BAC EV) Forecast considering both CPI and SPI EAC Earned Value Technique (EVT) (continued) Estimate to Complete (ETC) = EAC AC Variance at Completion (VAC) = BAC EAC 34

35 Performance Graph Value Actual Cost Cost Baseline ETC EAC MR BAC Cost Variance Schedule Variance Actual Performance Earned Value NOW Time To-Complete Performance Index TCPI is the calculated projection of the cost performance that must be achieved on the remaining work to meet a specified management goal such as the BAC or the EAC. 35

36 Earned Value Technique (EVT) Planned value (PV) = Budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS) Earned value (EV) = Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP) Actual cost (AC) = Actual cost of work Performed (ACWP) Cost variance (CV) Schedule variance (SV) Cost performance index (CPI) schedule performance index (SPI) Estimate to complete (ETC) Estimate at completion (EAC) Budget at Completion (BAC) Earned Value Technique (EVT) 36

37 Inputs Project management plan Project funding requirements Work performance data Organizational process assets Tools and Techniques 1. Earned Value Management 2. Forecasting 3. To-complete performance index 37

38 TT-4: Performance Reviews Performance reviews are meeting held to compare cost performance over time, schedule activities or work packages overrunning and under running budget, millstones due, and milestones met. Applied performance reporting techniques: - Variance Analysis - Trend Analysis - Earned Value Technique TT-5: Project Management Software Often used to monitor PV versus AC, and to forecast the effects of changes or variances 38

39 TT-6: Reserve Analysis Reserve analysis compare the amount of contingency reserves remaining to the amount of risk remaining at any time in the project in order to determine whether additional reserve need to be requested or not. Outputs 1. Work performance Information 2. Cost forecasts 3. Change requests 4. Project management plan updates 5. Project documents updates 6. Organizational process assets 39

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