ANALYZE THIS! EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS AND ADVANCED FORECASTING?

Transcription

1 ANALYZE THIS! EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS AND ADVANCED FORECASTING? KANSAS CITY CHAPTER PMI PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT DAYS SEPTEMBER 2012 Glenn Meyer (c) Glenn Meyer, except as noted. 10 Sep

2 I Introduction and Contents Housekeeping Contents Definitions EAC s: Doing the Math EAC: Latest Revised Estimate and Beyond Change Management and Control Status Updates The Reality Check Independent EAC s Summation 2

3 II Definitions Things Indices People 3

4 III EAC s: Doing the Math Problem One: The Budget for your project is $3,680,549. Your cumulative Actual Cost is $2,261,004. You have been reporting the Estimate at Completion as $3,680,549, right on target. What is your Estimate to Complete? List anything else you might need to know before answering the question: 4

5 PM Tool Format Actuals Estimate to Complete: What is it? Why mind it? EAC? My budget is what it is. Direct Cost vs. Total Burdened Cost vs. Total Cost Hey, what about fee? 5

6 Earned Value Tool Format If management is the object then direct cost is most effective; Indirect Costs can be summarized and shown as a one line entry or by elements of cost. 6

7 Tripwire Metrics Tripwire because crossing thresholds automatically requires investigation, analysis, and corrective actions to bring the project back under control. Schedule Performance Index (SPI). Cost Performance Index (CPI) Critical Path Length Index (CLPI) Baseline Efficiency Index (BEI) 7

8 Schedule Performance Index- SPI Measures schedule efficiency by comparing work performed (EV) to the planned values (PV) in the PMB. In other words, what is the ratio between the work I did and the value of the work I planned to do? Earned Value SPI = Planned Value BCWP SPI = BCWS 8

9 Cost Performance Index-CPI Measures cost efficiency by comparing work performed (EV) to actual cost (AC). In other words, what is the ratio between what I did and what it cost to do it? Earned Value CPI = Actual Cost BCWP CPI = ACWP 9

10 Critical Path Length Index- CPLI Measures the decrease, or increase, in total float on the critical path over time. In other words, how much schedule cushion am I gaining or losing? CPLI from time now plus Total Float to BL contract finish. Critical Path Length+ Total Float CPLI = Critical Path Length 10

11 Baseline Efficiency Index- BEI Measures efficiency at finishing activities by comparing BL Planned Finishes to Actual Finishes. In other words, what is the ratio between the number of activities I had planned to have completed by now and the number of activities that I ve actually completed? BL Planned Finishes BEI = Actual Finishes 11

12 Tripwire Problems Problem Two, Tripwire Metrics and VAC: Calculate the following using the formulae and data shown. Schedule Variance, Cost Variance, Variance at Completion, Baseline Efficiency Index. Calculate the variances and indices. 12

13 Problem 2 -Tripwire Problem Answers: Item Data / Formulae Answer Variance At Completion VAC = EAC -BAC $215,723 Schedule Variance (SV) SV = EV - PV ($231,053) Schedule Performance Index (SPI) SPI = EV / PV 0.88 Cost Variance (CV) CV = EV -AC $554,038 Cost Performance Index (CPI) CPI = EV / AC 1.50 Baseline Efficiency Index (BEI) Actual Finishes BEI = BL Project Finishes

14 Tripwire Measurements Tripwires and Statistical Process Control Think of tripwires as Upper Control Limits Lower Control Limits Provide the visibility to see the project going out of control Before it does. Corrective action, if effective, brings the project back under control. 14

15 Questions: Actual Costs Actual Costs, AC, ACWP What do you depend upon? Where do you get actual values for labor, material, ODC? Are Labor Hours Costs? Where are the official costs? Timecards Paid Invoices Estimated Actuals The Book of Record, the General Ledger 15

16 III: Estimate At Completion What is the difference between an EAC and a Budget? What is the EAC or ETC? Is it what I m told? Technically it is the sum of cumulative actual costs from inception to date plus the estimated cost of the unfinished work before the project is done. EAC = Actual Cost + Estimate to Complete The EAC is compared to the BAC, the difference is the Variance at Completion (VAC) Is it different than a Latest Revised Estimate (LRE)? 16

17 Estimate to Complete How was it derived? A few quick tests: Can the remaining labor hours be divided by 4? Is the EAC slightly under BAC, and do other statistical data support that? Was a more devious method used to make the ETC be what someone wantsit to be? Do I believe what I was told by the responsible managers? Do the attitudes of most assigned resource indicate that things are going consistently with what the responsible manager s numbers show? 17

18 What the Numbers Tell Us Actual Cost + Estimate to Complete (Remaining hours and costs) = EAC Budget at Completion Estimate at Completion = Variance at Completion Independent EAC = Budget at Completion / Cost Performance Index 18

19 Problem 3: Calculate an IEAC and the delta to the EAC Item Formula and Data Values IEAC = BAC / CPI Estimate at Completion (EAC) $3,464,826 Budget at Completion $3,680,549 Cost Performance Index 1.50 Delta of EAC minus Independent = IEAC -EAC EAC EAC (LRE)=$3,680,549 IEAC = $2,6,453,900 Delta = $1,011,127 (41%) A significant difference. Do we believe it? 19

20 What the Numbers Tell Us What the numbers tell me? AC + ETC (Remaining hours and costs) = EAC BAC EAC = VAC This predicts what the project will cost when finished. Only as good as the inputs (actuals and ETC) Independent EAC s BAC/CPI = Straight based upon distributed budget and cumulative cost performance Others. Bases for testing the credibility of the EAC. Is our previous EAC or IEAC credible? 20

21 Best to Be Objective Work Package 21

22 The Importance of Being (Earnestly) Discrete In establishing a controlled baseline (Performance Measurement Baseline) Know what Done is. Product-based Work Breakdown Structure Technical activities have to produce something. Logical network Resource Assignments Who will perform the work? Special skills? Or any old somebody? 22

23 Eschew Surplusage Mark Twain A rule of the literary art. Be specific Require specificity Indefinite modifiers: some, many, all, most, etc. As in Say what you intend to say, not merely something near it. Mark Twain 23

24 Product-based WBS & Network WBS: Fastener Assembly Nut Make Nuts Bolt Assembly Make Bolts Assemble Product Logical Network 24

25 Estimating Base estimates on the average person. Allow for some degree of risk where it exists. Weighted Average: Best case cost x probability Worst case cost x probability Likely case cost x probability 25

26 Problem 4: Estimating Risk Problem Four: Calculate a weighted average, riskbased estimate for an activity or WBS Item Case Estimate Probability Worst Case $10,000 25% Likely Case $7,000 40% Best Case $3,000 35% Risk-based Estimate Sum of Answers: Answers: Case Estimate x Probability Answer: $ 6,350 Can be applied to: Labor hours, labor costs, material costs, and Durations. 26

27 Granularity: EVM System Criteria Objective, not subjective completion criteria. Plan & complete technical activities in 1 status period, 2 periods if weekly status. Work Packages: 1-2 month duration. Non-technical activities keep separate from technical work. 27

28 Granularity: Control Accounts Four Elements must be present for analysis and control Actual Labor Hours and Costs (AC) Remaining Cost, and Hours (ETC) Budgeted Hours and Costs in the Performance Measurement Baseline (BCWS, PV) Performance, (BCWP, EV) 28

29 Granularity: Rolling Wave What will you be doing one year from today? Work Packages: Near term work 1-6 months, or whatever work can be reasonably planned. Planning Packages: Farther term work. We know we ll need to do something, but not specifically how we will do it. Typically greater than 3 months in the future. MR Float 29

30 V Change Management and Control Definitions: Scopemeans The sum of the products, services, and results to be provided as a project. Performance Measurement Baselinemeans An approved integrated scope-schedule-cost plan for the project work against which project execution is compared to measure and manage performance The PMB is the controlledbaseline against which project performance is measured. Controlled means only authorized and approved efforts are included. 30

31 Control Scope Tightly Have a documented process for adding work to the baseline and to the current (EAC) plan. Do not accept changes without evaluating the cost and schedule impact before acceptance. Do not start until the work is authorized by the proper customer/stakeholders. Scope can be entered into the PMB or the current plan, or both. Oops, got ya sare not baseline changes. 31

32 Change Control Process Two phase process, whether formal or informal: 1 st Phase Change Description Develop a detailed description of the change so all parties can agree on it. If allowed, estimate the effort and cost to investigate. Submit for approval of the investigation effort. 2 nd Phase Change Approval Submittal and approval or rejection of the change proposal. Agreement on the content, cost, and schedule impact resulting from implementation of the proposed change. Approved changes must be entered into the PMB. 32

33 What Needs to Be Known In Advance Was WBS Approved, Authorized Scope (SOW) Cost, Schedule, Resource Requirements Present Budget, Schedule, EAC, Deliverables, Specifications, Requirements, Risks Will Be, If Approved WBS Revised Scope (SOW), specific change Revised Cost, Schedule, Resource Requirements Revised Budget, Schedule, EAC, Deliverables, Specifications, Requirements, Risks Amount of Change 33

34 VI Status Updates 34

35 Technical Activities Objective Performance: Done or Not Done In progress activity ETC s for all resources. What material is purchased and remains unpaid? What material must still be purchased? Regular bottom up EAC s Scope rationalization Resource usage using the principles of resourcedriven scheduling. Subjective Performance 35

36 Level of Effort Overhead Activities In progress activity ETC s for all resources. (How many hours before done?) If true LOE, verify burn rate (actual hours, material, or expense costs per period) and verify that ETC s usage forecast is set accordingly, Ifthere are no known increases or decreases in the future. 36

37 Subjective Performance Anecdote Do whatever you want: You re making it up anyway. Don t blame the tool or others. Percent Complete is not Objective... 37

38 Simple Status Rules Data must be reliable and unconcerned with anything other than representing: Actual starts and finishes of activities, Completion of steps within activities, Remaining efforts, and Resource utilization (usage). Objectivemethods determine the amount of work performed. Remaining Hours and Costs must represent only the amount of effort required to complete the activity in progress. 10 PM Status, Tracking, and Analysis.ppt 01 June

39 VII The Reality Checks Resource Loading This won t happen Because that s a problem 39

40 Reality Checks Actuals are actual: They should not include estimated actuals; Checks written, timesheets approved and logged. ETC: If the CAM, PM, or Resource Manager is telling you that the activity, Control Account, WBS, or Project will be done in two months. How many hours are in the ETC for his work? If Bob, or anyone else, is essential and requires 80 hours a week to finish the work, is it reasonable to believe that it will happen? What are the choices? 40

41 ETC Balance Just as the PMB, the ETC should demonstrate balance of: 41

42 VIII Independent EAC s Testing the EAC using EV Methods Cumulative CPI Method (Problem Three) Cost/Schedule Method Cost/Schedule Weighted Factor Method Three Month Average Method 42

43 Cumulative CPI Method IEAC =(BAC/CPI) Budget at Completion divided by Cost Performance Index What s critical here? Budget at Completion Work Performed (EV) Actual Cost 43

44 Cost/Schedule Method IEAC =AC+ Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining (BCWR) Unearned Value Budget at Completion minus Earned Value then divided by Cost Performance Index multiplied by SPI What s critical here? The Budget at Completion, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (EV) Tries to consider schedule performance as a driver of at completion cost. Again the focus is cumulative performance. 44

45 Cost/Schedule Weighted Factor Method IEAC =.. What s critical here? Budget at Completion, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (EV) Tries to consider schedule performance as a driver of at completion cost. Weights each Index by respective contribution to overall cost history. Factors should be based on observed performance. 45

46 Three Month Average Method = + What s critical here? This IEAC method can verify a change to the rate at which value has been earned. Two periods do not a trend make; three periods may Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (EV) View this method as another in the series of EAC tests. 46

47 To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) = Tests reasonableness of the ETC by comparing to CPIcum. EAC is considered to be reasonable if the CPIcumand TCPI are within.05 of each other. 47

48 PV, EV, AC Project Periods 48

49 SPI CPI Three Periods 49

50 EAC Methods Compared 50

51 Earned Value Trend Chart 51

52 Summation Managing Cost Managing project cost means: Manage scope. Good indicators of scope issues include SPI-SV CPI-CV Start and Finish Efficiencies (Baseline Efficiency Index) 52

53 Summation Managing Cost Means Managing scope. Managing work completion (schedule). Leading resources, not managing them. Thinking things through, beginning to end. Recovery Plan, what it really means How long do we want to hide truth? 53

54 Summation Managing Cost Means In the end, the project will cost what it costs. You can make good decisions about Make/Buy Resource skills and rates Scope, what to do or not do You can manage only scope, schedule, resources, and EXPECTATIONS, While you try not to do anything stupid. 54