CPM (College of Performance Management) Meetings have focused on this topic in the last year

Transcription

1 June 13,

2 PMI - (PMI-ACP Exam tests using EVM with Agile) PMI: EVM should be used on all projects, in all industries, no matter how simple or complex Federal Government is asking for the two approaches to be used together DAU (Defense Acquistion University) CPM (College of Performance Management) Meetings have focused on this topic in the last year June 13,

3 June 13, 2016

4 What industry does modern project management arise from? Construction and Engineering So much of what we teach in PMP Prep classes comes to us from? DoD 1960s What is leading cause of project failure? Poorly defined Scope! (Which stems from doing requirements poorly.) Having a vague, ambiguous Scope Statement with poorly written acceptance criteria. June 13,

5 Therefore, - Let s get off to a good start and do Scope well! Steve Covey - The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People Habit #2 Begin With the End In Mind June 13,

6 Step 1: To the extent possible, you must define the full scope of the project. (Equates to EVM Criterion #1) This is perhaps the most important requirement for implementing earned value, and perhaps the most difficult to achieve. Management of certain types of projects, notably software, often give up at this point and refuse to go further. They often relinquish. p. 160 Earned Value Project Management June 13,

7 Step 1: To the extent possible, you must define the full scope of the project. (Equates to EVM Criterion #1) This is perhaps the most important requirement for implementing earned value, and perhaps the most difficult to achieve. Management of certain types of projects, notably software, often give up at this point and refuse to go further. They often relinquish. p. 160 Earned Value Project Management This is a key sentence that defines the difference in mindset between those using EVM (or Traditional Project Management ) and those using an Agile Methodology. The Agilists would say it s not that we re relinquishing or giving up, it s that oftentimes in software, or in projects with volatile requirements, it s not possible to define the full scope in detail at the outset. You re fooling yourself if you think you can! June 13,

8 The Classic Triple Constraints Scope Best Practices Team, LLC June 13, 2016 Slide 8

9 Foundational KAs (Processes) Requirements: Charter Scope Statement Communications Stakeholder Management Best Practices Team, LLC June 13, 2016 Slide 9 1

10 If you don t use earned value, you don t really know what you ve accomplished in your project! You will end up with incorrect and naive judgements about your performance You cannot just compare your actual expenses to what was budgeted June 13,

11 Variable Name Definition BAC Budget at Completion Original budget for the project. (What we planned to spend at the end of the project.) PV Planned Value What we should have spent at this point in time - (if we were on budget). EV Earned Value The value of the work completed at this point in time against what was budgeted. (This is a different concept than anything used in everyday budgeting!) AC Actual Cost What has actually been spent at this point in time. June 13, 2016

12 Classic S Curve Cost Baseline = PMB in Earned Value Budget $$ $110,000 AC = $110,000 $100,000 PV = $100,000 Budget at Completion (BAC) $200,000 $90,000 EV = $90,0000 On 6/1, we ve done 90% of the work that was planned 1/1 6/1 10/31 Time June 13, 2016

13 Variable Name Definition SV Schedule Variance SV = EV PV CV Cost Variance CV = EV AC SPI Schedule Performance Index SPI = EV/PV CPI Cost Performance Index CPI = EV/AC June 13, 2016

14 Cost Baseline = A Classic S Curve We have a total of 2,000 story points planned for the project at $100 per point. We are planning 10 sprints, and 200 stories per sprint. Each sprint is one month. We have completed 5 sprints, have spent $110,000 and completed 900 stories. Today is June 1 st. How is this project doing? Is it on schedule? Is it on budget? $200,000 Cost Baseline Budget at Completion (BAC) $200,000 2,000 Story Points Budget $$ $110,000 $100,000 AC = $110,000 PV = $100,000 EV = $90,000 1,000 Story Points 900 Story Points 1/1 Time 6/1 10/31 June 13, 2016

15 Capabilities/ Epics Features Stories June 13,

16 Hierarchy: Epics > Features > Stories > Tasks Epic - Feature Story o Task o Task o Task Story o Task o Task - Feature Story o Task Epic - Feature Story

17 Agile Term Traditional (WBS) Reference Comments Product Backlog Entire Scope of the Project All the approved requirements for the project. All the capabilities or epics which can be hierarchically decomposed into features which can be further decomposed into stories. Iteration Phase In Agile, we divide the project into time-boxed iterations which are 2 to 4 weeks each. An increment of the product backlog is created in each iteration or Sprint. Release Project A release is the number of iterations needed to create useful functionality for the customer. Product Roadmap Schedule Shows the timing: how many iterations will the project take? Choose the iterations in a release when features/stories will be created. Epic/ Capability Feature Stories WBS element at or above the Control Account Level Work Packages perhaps? - Next Level Below the Control Account Level Activities - Next Level Below Features High-level requirement Epics are decomposed into features Features are decomposed into stories. June 13, 2016

18 No, it s not really! 1) The Agile Feature Breakdown Structure doesn t translate directly onto a WBS. Stories are not the same as work-packages or activities The Definition of Done is not the same as Acceptance Criteria 2) We re missing the point of why we re using Agile: (use Lean to explore and discover requirements). 3) We can t get an accurate, definitive BAC, so we can t get a good EAC. Therefore, EVM is most beneficial being within an iteration or within a Sprint 4) Nonetheless, there s still value in doing this! June 13,

19 Story = Template for a user story: As a <Role>, I want <Functionality>, so that <Business benefit>. Answers: Who is asking for this? Also - Why are we doing this? June 13,

20 Agile is meant to deal with a totally different environment and problem. The world of volatile requirements. The customer: Doesn t know what they want at the outset, and we re going to have to discover and explore requirements! I ll Know It When I See It! (IKIWISI) June 13,

21 Scope June 13, 2016

22 The Cone of Uncertainty A simple four phase sequential lifecycle approach for a software project - (SDLC) Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Testing June 13,

23 We will organize the phases in a sequential manner (or Waterfall structure.) Conceptual Design Detailed Design Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Phases All Rights Reserved Best Practices Training, LLC June 13,

24 Step 1: To the extent possible, you must define the full scope of the project. (Equates to EVM Criterion #1) This is perhaps the most important requirement for implementing earned value, and perhaps the most difficult to achieve. Management of certain types of projects, notably software, often give up at this point and refuse to go further. They often relinquish. p. 160 Earned Value Project Management This is a key sentence that defines the difference in mindset between those using EVM (or Traditional Project Management ) and those using an Agile Methodology. The Agilists would say it s not that we re relinquishing or giving up, it s that oftentimes in software, or in projects with volatile requirements, it s not possible to define the full scope in detail at the outset. You re fooling yourself if you think you can! June 13,

25 Pull Requirements Discover and Explore Requirements Identify Fast Failures! YAGNI You re Aren t Going to Need It! MMF Minimal Marketable Feature Standish Survey: 65% of the requirements the customer requests will never be used. Pareto s Law in requirements: 20% of the requirements fulfill 80% of the customer s need. Doug DeCarlo: If a picture is worth a thousand words, a prototype is worth a thousand pictures. June 13,

26 Defining Scope Correctly. Obtaining Requirements How do we do this with Traditional Project Management? Well written Scope Statement/SOW SMART Acceptance Criteria Hold the vendor accountable in a legally binding contract way Is this always going to work? June 13,

27 June 13,

28 Requirements: Charter Scope Statement Communications Stakeholder Management June 13,

29 Project Lifecycle (Divide the Project into Phases) Phases Conceptual Detailed Design Coding/ Development Unit Testing Integrated Testing Phase gates and Kill points occur as we move from phase to phase. June 13,

30 Can t get a definitive BAC Therefore, can t get accurate forecasts (EAC) Principal EAC is: EAC = BAC/CPI c or EAC = BAC/(SPI * CPI) So, for Agile, it s best to only use EVM within a Sprint or Iteration Who cares about doing that? (It s obvious how we re doing within a two to four week Sprint.) Plus, Burndown Charts, Burnup Charts and measuring velocity are easier to understand. June 13,

31 Step 9: Using earned value data, you must continuously forecast the final required costs based on actual performance, and keep management apprised so they can take corrective actions if necessary (Equates to EVM Criterion #27) One of more beneficial aspects of earned value is that it provides the capability to quickly and independently forecast the total funds required to complete a project.. (EAC). p. 165 June 13,

32 Yes! Even though we can t get a definitive BAC, and can t get accurate forecasts (EAC), there still is value! If we are 15% - 20% into the project, and variances are negative, and CPI & SPI are below one, it s very unlikely we will improve project performance moving forward. There is a wealth of data from DoD programs and other Federal programs proving this point. Might be a good reason to kill the project! June 13,

33 Even though we can t get a definitive BAC, and can t get accurate forecasts (EAC), there still is value! If we are 15% - 20% into the project, and variances are negative, and CPI & SPI are below one, it s very unlikely we will improve project performance moving forward. There is a wealth of data from DoD programs and other Federal programs proving this point. Might be a good reason to kill the project! June 13,

34 No! Most projects are hybrid Most projects have parts which can be done the traditional way. Most modern projects have parts where creativity is at a premium, and requirements must be explored and discovered It depends! We have to know how to manage projects both ways. June 13,

35 All Rights Reserved Best Practices Team, LLC June 13,

36 Variable Name Definition EAC Estimate at Completion More than 25 EAC equations in the real world! Key EAC we will look at: EAC = BAC/CPI c ETC Estimate to Complete ETC = EAC AC TCPI To Complete Performance Index TCPI = (BAC-EV)/(BAC AC) or TCPI EAC = (BAC-EV)/(EAC AC) June 13, 2016

37 Classic S Curve Cost Baseline = PMB in Earned Value Budget $$ $110,000 AC = $110,000 $100,000 PV = $100,000 Budget at Completion (BAC) $200,000 $90,000 EV = $90,0000 On 6/1, we ve done 90% of the work that was planned 1/1 6/1 10/31 Time June 13, 2016