NOVEMBER 9, An overview of the core elements of the Earned Value Management technique. Presenter:

Transcription

1 NOVEMBER 9, 2009 An overview of the core elements of the Earned Value Management technique Presenter: G M Jim Anderson, PMP 1

2 Goal of the Presentation A presentation ti on earned value that t allows PM s to come away with one or two new insights into how to think about and apply earned value. 3 What It Is Not A software presentation ti Highly technical New A suggestion: Don t worry about taking notes I will send you a copy of the slides 4 2

3 Earned Value Management Provides the answer to the question: How are we doing on the project? The typical answers to this question offer comparisons of actual performance (cost and schedule) to planned performance. 5 Earned Value Management What s Missing? i An assessment of how much of the project s objectives (value) have been met versus how much was planned to be complete by the status date 6 3

4 Earned Value Management Provides a quantitative view of: Cost and schedule variances, Efficiency indexes (ratios) that are used to predict future cost and schedule performance, Value created to the status date. 7 Earned Value Management Common complaints about the use of earned value: It s too complicated. It s hard to implement (cost/time). Small projects don t benefit from it. 8 4

5 Earned Value Management Types of cost variances defined d in 1950 s EV concepts emerged from the PERT movement of the 1960 s Adopted as DoD policy in Earned Value Management Provides an early warning on cost and schedule performance. Reliable long-term cost and schedule performance indicators emerge as early as 15-20% into a new project s lifecycle. Allows for true management by exception. Negative variances attract attention Large positive variances also attract attention 10 5

6 Core Elements of Earned Value Reporting Core: - Planned Value (BCWS) - Earned Value (BCWP) - Actual Cost (ACWP) - Budget at Completion (BAC) Cost: Schedule: - Cost Variance (CV) - Schedule Variance (SV) - Cost Variance % (CV%) - Schedule Variance % (SV%) - Cost Performance Index(CPI) - Schedule Performance Index (SPI) - To Complete CPI (TCPI) Forecasting: - Estimate to Complete (ETC) - Estimate At Completion (EAC) - Variance at Completion (VAC) 11 EVM View in MS Project 12 6

7 EVM Tables in MS Project 13 Earned Value View [Earned Value Table] 14 7

8 Earned Value View [Cost Indicators Table] 15 Earned Value View [Schedule Indicators Table] 16 8

9 Core Elements of Earned Value Reporting Planned Value (BCWS) The estimated cost of work scheduled to the status date. Earned Value (BCWP) The true value of work performed to the status date. Actual Cost (ACWP) Actual cost of work performed to the status date. Budget at Completion The total budget allocated to a project 17 Earned Value Reporting is referenced to a status date 1. Status Date 2. Actual Cost 3. Earned Value Planned Value 18 9

10 Planned Value (BCWS: Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled) BCWS is the cumulative cost of work scheduled to the status date. A graph of cumulative planned values produces the well known S-curve. Example: The budget for a 4-day task is $100. If the status date is day three, BCWS is $ Cumulative Planned Value Cost Curve Resources Time 20 10

11 Earned Value (BCWP: Budgeted Cost of Work Performed) BCWP = the value of the work performed to the status date. BCWP = Project value earned to the status date. BCWP = Actual Cost (ACWP) + Cost Variance (CV) 21 Earned Value The True Value of Work Performed Microsoft Project calculates earned value using: %Complete or, Physical-% Complete. %-Complete - calculated automatically, or entered manually. Physical-% Complete - is entered manually when the task's s %-Complete value is not deemed to be an accurate measure of the true value of the work performed or of the work remaining

12 Earned Value Calculation Tools > Options > Calculations Page 23 Microsoft Project Default is %-Complete for Earned Value 24 12

13 %-Complete A %Complete value is required in MSP. %complete is the percent of work completed relative to the amount of work scheduled to the state date. An easy %Complete scheme: Have not begun work = 0% Working on the task = 50% Finished the task = 100% 25 Actual Cost Data for EV Oftentimes ti actual costs are not obtainable in a timely manner or not at all; when that is the case: Use estimated resource rates, or Use loaded labor rates, or Cost all resources at a $1 rate

14 Earned Value = True Value How %-Complete and Physical-%Complete differ: Example Project: Building Stone Wall Project Goal: Build a stone wall consisting of 100 stones stacked 5 rows high. The first row of 20 stones can be laid in 20 minutes. The second row will take 25 minutes because you now have to lift the stones up one row higher, so it takes a little longer. The third row will take 30 minutes. The fourth row 35 minutes, The last row will take 40 minutes to lay, for a total duration for the project of 150 minutes. 27 Earned Value = True Value Using %-Complete vs. Physical-%Complete: After laying the first three rows the project could be said to be 60% physically complete. First row (20 min.) - 20 minutes total duration. Second row (25 min.) - 45 minutes total duration. Third row(30 min.) - 75 minutes total duration. However, only 75 of the 150 minutes have been spent, so in terms of project duration, the job is 50% complete

15 Earned Value = True Value Using %-Complete vs. Physical-%Complete: Which method would you choose for calculating earned value: %complete or physical-% complete? The answer is it depends. Whether you are getting paid by the stone or by the minute. Choose the measure that reflects the true value earned for the work completed. 29 Actual Cost (ACWP: Actual Cost of Work Performed) ACWP = Actual Cost of Work Performed to the status date. Example: A four day task has a planned value (BCWS) of $100. The actual costs the first two days were $35/day, If the status date is day three, the actual cost for the reporting period is $95, but the BCWS is still $

16 Relationships Between the Core EV Elements Earned Value (BCWP) VS. Planned Value (BCWS) BCWP VS. BCWS [Work Performed] [Work Scheduled] Earned Value (BCWP) VS. Actual Value (ACWP) BCWP VS. ACWP [Budgeted Cost] [Actual Cost] 31 BAC = Budget at Completion BAC is the sum of the planned value of each task (total cost) in the project schedule. BAC is the estimate of the final project cost. BAC is the project s baseline budget 32 16

17 Cost Performance Indicators - Cost Variance (CV) - Cost Variance % (CV%) - Cost Performance Index (CPI) - To Complete Cost Performance Index (TCPI) 33 Cost Variance (CV) CV = (BCWP - ACWP) CV is the amount that has been overspent or under spent for the work performed to the status date. Answers the question, By how much is the project is over or under budget? 0 (on-budget), Negative (over budget), Positive (under budget)

18 Cost Variance Per Cent (CV%) CV% = CV / BCWP Relative to planned value, CV% shows what % of planned value was spent to achieve the value earned to the status date. Answers the question, By what percent is the project over or under budget? The variance can be: CV-% > 0 (over budget), CV-% < 0 (under budget). 35 Cost Performance Index (CPI) CPI=BCWP/ACWP Ratio of earned value to actual cost for the work performed to the status date. This is a cost efficiency index that shows how efficiently resources are being utilized on the project. CPI >= 1 (resources are being utilized well). CPI < 1 (resources are not being utilized well)

19 Cost Performance Index (CPI) Assumption: Resources on a project will perform at 100% efficiency to achieve the planned schedule, on time and on budget. For every dollar spent relative to planned costs, CPI allows the project manager to monitor how efficiently the project s budget is being consumed. 37 To Complete (TCPI) TCPI = (BAC - BCWP) / (BAC - ACWP) The ratio of [remaining work] / [remaining funds] as of the status date. TCPI is an efficiency index that forecasts how efficiently project resources should be utilized for the remainder of the project to stay on budget or to get back on budget. TCPI > 1 (Resource utilization should be managed closely) TCPI < 1 (Resource utilization can be managed less stringently) 38 19

20 Schedule Performance Indicators - Schedule Variance (SV) - Schedule Variance % (SV%) - Schedule Performance Index (SPI) 39 Schedule Variance (SV) SV = (BCWP - BCWS) Measures whether the project is ahead or behind schedule: 0(on-schedule) (on-schedule), Negative (behind schedule), Positive (ahead of schedule)

21 Schedule Variance % (SV%) SV% = SV / BCWS Shows % of scheduled work that has slipped relative to the planned duration, or the % of work that is complete over and above the work scheduled to the status date. Answers the question, By what percent is the project behind or ahead of schedule? The variance can be: SV-% < 0 (% of work behind schedule), SV-% > 0 (% of work ahead of schedule). 41 Schedule Performance Index (SPI) SPI = BCWP / BCWS This is a schedule efficiency index that shows how efficiently the project team is utilizing the time that is allotted to the project. SPI >= 1 (good). SPI < 1 (not good)

22 Forecasting Indicators Estimate To Complete (ETC) Answers the question, From the status date forward, how much will it cost to complete the remaining work? Estimate At Completion (EAC) Forecasts the likely final cost of the project at completion; it includes actual cost to date plus the estimated cost of work remaining. Variance At Completion (VAC) A forecast of the difference between the budget at completion (BAC) and the estimate at completion (EAC) 43 Estimate To Complete (ETC) (BAC BCWP) = Estimated t cost of the work remaining from the status date ETC is used when prior estimating assumptions have become invalid and you need a revised estimate of the cost to complete the remaining work

23 Estimate At Completion (EAC) EAC = ACWP + (BAC - BCWP) / CPI EAC is an estimate of the likely cost of the project at completion. It accounts for the work already completed plus the cost of the remaining work from the status date EAC calibrates the projected final cost based on past cost performance to the status date. 45 Variance At Completion (VAC) VAC = (BAC EAC) VAC = the difference between the original project budget and the revised estimated final budget. In MS Project, EAC is the Total Cost field and BAC is the Baseline Cost field

24 Earned Value Performance Measures PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management 47 References: PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management Earned Value Management Using Microsoft Office Project (Sham Dayal, PMP) Essentials of Project Controls (Editors: Jeffrey ey K. Pinto and Jeffrey ey W. Trailer) Applying earned value analysis to your project (

25 Chart The Course Thank You! Jim Anderson, PMP, MSPM, MCITP 49 Questions? 50 25