John Chapman. Earned Value and PRINCE2

Transcription

1 Earned Value and PRINCE2 John Chapman PRINCE2 is a Registered Trade Mark of the Office of Government Commerce in the United Kingdom and other countries.

2 Why are we here? Do PRINCE2 and Earned Value relate to each other? What could be shared for mutual improvement?

3 PRINCE Processes and the Project Control Lifecycle

4 PRINCE 2 : the De facto standard

5 Earned Value in 10 Steps 1. Requirement 2. WBS 7. Actual Cost OBS 5. Plan I N15 N22 N29 N06 D13 D20 D27 D03 SMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWT RAM S e t B a s e l i n e C h a n g e C o n t r o l 8. Work Performed 9. Earned Value 10. Analysis ? Budget

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7 Remember these 3 things EV profiles budget over time using standard techniques. How will we know we ve delivered it? EV monitors budget against physical progress. Where are we? EV calculates value for money by monitoring how efficiently we are turning budget into deliverable. How are we doing?

8 What is your cultural IQ? Is asal bapak senan? 1.A mystical form of spirituality? 2.A method of reinforcing economic and social alliances? 3.A tradition of keeping bad news hidden? Answer: Asal bapak senan is the Indonesian tradition of honouring their boss by shielding him from bad news in public. It means keeping father happy. Supervisors are often told what they want to hear. So how do we track % complete?

9 Project Description : Do we have a project? 1. Requirement

10 WBS includes Product Breakdown 2. WBS Project Planning & Stage Plan 3. OBS 4. RAM WBS : Work Breakdown Structure OBS : Organisation Breakdown Structure RAM : Responsibility assignment matrix

11 Case Study Product Breakdown Work Breakdown Organisation Breakdown Responsibility assignment Quality Management Strategy

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13 Project Planning & Stage Plan 5. Plan I N15 N22 N29 N06 D13 D20 D27 D03 SMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWT Budget

14 Case Study Project plan gives milestone dates with estimated dates by Stage Stage plan which has the allocation of resource assignment against activities

15 Case Study

16 Case Study Bottom up estimate of time by level 4 WBS Totalled by Project Stage

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18 These are days not financial values

19 5. Plan I N15 N22 N29 N06 D13 D20 D27 D03 SMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWTFSMTWT S e t B a s e l i n e Budget

20 Case Study In the Stage Plan set the baseline Includes resource allocation by name Assign costs by name The Cost calculation based on resource cost

21 In MS Project setting the baseline creates the BCWS (the Planned Value)

22 Checkpoint Report 7. Actual Cost Work Performed

23 Case Study The project is underway We collect Actual Cost information by WBS element through timesheet analysis We have weekly reviews to collect % complete and remaining duration This is reported through a checkpoint report

24 In MS Project setting the baseline creates the BCWS (the planned value) As we update the Actual duration and remaining duration the CPI is calculated

25 9. Earned Value 10. Analysis Time tolerance Cost tolerance Exception report ?

26 Earning the value For example on an IT Project Training is : either you are trained or not trained! Design could be by weighted milestone 25% on completion of a design workshop 50% on issuing a design document 25% on design signoff

27 US Survey says.. over 800 military programs show that... no program has ever improved performance better than the following EAC calculation EAC = BAC CPI at 15% complete point in program No-one pays enough attention in the early stages Courtesy of Steve Wake

28 US Survey says.. Estimate at Complete Thanks to CPI and SPIt, and a budget that represents all the work to be done (BAC),.. it is possible to predict when the project will be done and how much will be spent getting there There is common knowledge and statistical evidence showing this assumption to be valid. The project work is as difficult as it is. Page 34

29 Case Study : Key Performance Indicator A mathematical projection EAC = BAC / CPI Estimate at Complete = Budget at Complete / Cost Performance Index Assume BAC is 150,000 CPI is 0.95 EAC = 150,000 / 0.95 EAC = 157,895

30 Case Study This is a quick method of identifying of the estimate at complete(eac). It does not involve bottom up analysis but does provide a metric and financial value However when there is a significant technical issue, only detailed planning of the remaining work can result in a valid EAC.1 1. Performance Based Earned Value. Paul J Solomon and Ralph R Young, ISBN , page 100

31 Case Study A bottom up calculation EAC = AC + ETC Estimate at Complete = Actual Costs plus Estimate to Complete

32 Case Study At End Stage Assessment we now have Budget At Complete (BAC) Estimate To Complete (ETC) Estimate At Complete (EAC) Is the project still financially viable based on the Estimate at Complete? Used at End Stage Assessment

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34 Case Study We assess risk by type of work and make budget provision on this basis We consider unknown risks based on a % assessment of the total work

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37 BAC Budget at completion Reporting Graphs BCWS Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled OD Original Duration planned ATE Actual Time Expended ACWP BCWP Actual Cost of Work Performed Budget Cost of Work Performed Forecast cost overrun EAC EAC Estimate Cost at Completion Time now Planned Budget BAC Planned (BCWS) COST Actual Cost (ACWP) Cost variance Schedule Variance (cost) Forecast project time slip Schedule Variance (time) Planned completion Forecast completion Earned value (BCWP) APM Reproduced under licence from APM OD ATE TIME 37

38 Concluding message The methods used to monitor physical progress in Earned Value can be used in PRINCE2 projects, large or small, simple or complex, any industry.

39 Book References The Earned Value Management Maturity Model, Ray W Stratton, ISBN Earned Value Project Management, 3 rd Edition, Quentin W Fleming and Joel M Koppelman, ISBN EVA in the UK, Steve Wake APM Body of Knowledge, 5 th Edition, Association for Project Management, ISBN Interfacing Risk and Earned Value Management, Association for Project Management, ISBN The Mythical Man Month and Other Essays on Software Engineering, Frederick Brooks, ISBN Project and Programme Accounting, a practical guide for Professional Service Organisations and IT, John Chapman, Project Manager Today Publications, ISBN: Earned Value Management using Microsoft Office Project, Sham Dayal, J.Ross Publishing, ISBN Work Breakdown Structures, The Foundation for Project Management Excellence, Eric S Norman, Shelly A Brotherton, Robert T Fried, Wiley, ISBN Performance Based Earned Value, Paul J Solomon, Ralph R Young, Wiley Interscience, ISBN

40 Thank you to Steve Wake Graham Williams John Chapman, Touchstone Ltd John Flaherty, OTC Optima Alex Davis, MOD and members of the EVM SIG