Techniques to Assist Delivery of Projects

Transcription

1 Techniques to Assist Delivery of Projects 1

2 Introduction Who am I? Ian Bell Where am I from? Adept Knowledge Management Ltd Based at 5 Carden Place Aberdeen AB10 1UT +44 (0)

3 Introduction - Background 40 Years of Project and Programme Management in: Medical Research Optronics Lasers and EO Systems RADAR Space Industry Communication Satellites Battery/Battery Charger Industry Water Treatment Industry University Research Facility Planning PM Consultancy/Teaching Best Practice PMI BoK Oil Industry Consultancy and Training in Risk and PM 3

4 Introduction 40 Years of Project and Programme Management Has taught me that the secret of successful Project Management is:- 4

5 Introduction Planning Planning Planning and More Planning and Talking about Project Management is much easier than doing it!!!! 5

6 Techniques to Assist Delivery of Projects Agenda - Best Practice or Royal Road to Project Control? 1. Work Breakdown Structures 2. Critical Path Analysis 3. Float Trend Analysis 4. Earned Value Assessment But there is also 1. Stakeholder management 2. Scope Management 3. Risk Management 4. QHSE Management 5. Supply Chain Management 6. Communication Management 7. Team Building and Development 6

7 Basis of Best Practice The Project Management Institute PMI The Association of Project Managers APM and Both have collected and agreed what is Best Practice for the control and delivery of projects:- Consolidated into the Body of Knowledge The Capital Value Process 7

8 Good PM start with PLANNING What are we trying to do? How long will it take? How much will it cost? Who will do it? Where will it be done What are the risks? 8

9 What are we trying to do? Basis of Planning Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Definition An organised list of all the tasks that we will have to do to complete the project which will cost us money. 9

10 The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) PMI Definition of Scope Management Includes the processes required to ensure that the project includes all the work and only the work required to complete the project successfully. It is primarily concerned with controlling what is and what is not in the project. PMBOK 10

11 WBS for an ROV System 11

12 The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 12

13 WBS Tasks at Sub-Unit level Example WBS No Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 (Work Packages or Tasks) Survey Mounting Frame Interface Definition Interface Definition Interface Control Drawings Design Mechanical Design Electrical Design Parts, Layout, Assembly drawings Parts lists Procurement, Manufacture, Assembly Parts Procurement Mechanical Assy Electrical Wiring and Assy Test and Inspection Test Inspection 13

14 How long will it take? Estimate how long each WBS task will take. Establish the logical interaction of all the WBS tasks. This enables a logic diagram of the work flow to be created. Leads to an overall Project Duration (PD) Identifies when tasks have to start and finish Identifies which tasks have Float Establishes the Critical Path 14

15 WBS to Network Logic Diagram/Gantt Chart WBS Work Breakdown Structure Network diagram 15

16 What is float? Float (sometimes called Slack) is:- The amount of time that the start of an activity/task/work package can be delayed without affecting the end date of the project. OR The amount of time that the end of an activity can slip without affecting the end date of the project Activities with no Float are on the Critical Path 16

17 Precedence Notation Early Start ES Duration DU Task ID Early Finish EF Late Start LS Float Late Finish LF 17

18 Logic Network Analysis A B D F C E TF = LF EF or TF = LS - ES 18

19 Why is float important? The amount of Float in a project is an indication of how risky the project schedule is! Little Float Lots of Float High Schedule Risk! Lower Schedule Risk! 19

20 Why should we monitor Float? The rate at which Float is consumed is an indication of the change in schedule risk. 20

21 How should we monitor Float? Float Trend Analysis First developed in early 1970s. By DC Kilpatrick Not now in common use but it should be!! 21

22 Float Trend Analysis - Objectives Establish trend of project progress against target dates or milestones predict probable achievement dates highlight need for corrective action Float (days) Max. Float 9 th Decile 5 th Decile 1 st Decile Min. Float Float on Critical Path Decrease of Float Project Duration (days) Target Date 22

23 FTA - in action Max. Float 9th Decile 5th Decile 1st Decile Float (days) Early Sensitivity Line Project Duration (days) Target Date Time Now (ATE) Late 23

24 Example: Haewene Brim (FPSO) Redevelopment and Modifications Multi-phases Engineering and Procurement (60 weeks) Preparations at the Yard (33 weeks) Fitting out at Dry Dock (7 weeks) Return to Offshore (2 weeks) Resume Production Oil + Gas (2 weeks) Client insisted on Fixed Price work on a 15 year old vessel Risk, planning and forecasting late and resisted Client bought out Fixed Price contract, changed to Cost Reimbursable. Reached production on time but with incomplete scope! 24

25 Vessel Arrival Planned at 33 weeks Float Trend Analysis at 21 weeks into the preparations schedule Forecasting minimum of 2 weeks late before the critical Dry Dock stage (7 weeks) Non-critical work being done out of sequence and forecast 2 weeks early! 25

26 Managing Cost Earned Value Analysis 26

27 How much will it cost? The Planned Budget Estimate the budget for each WBS Work Package or Task Labour hours x rates Materials Services Sub contracts Project Budget = Sum of all the WBS Work Package or Task Budgets 27

28 How to Use Earned Value to Manage Cost Starts with the S Curve Definition A chart which displays the budget of the project as a cumulative Termed Planned Value (PV) The total budget for all work packages is called Budget At Completion (BAC) 28

29 /$/ Developing the S Curve network diagram WBS = Work Breakdown Structure Gantt chart Plan S-curve resource histogram 29

30 $ etc Plan (baseline, cum budget = early curve) Budget at At Completion (BAC) (BAC) Planned Value (PV) Project duration (PD) time 30

31 What to Measure! Costs: time: actual costs, or hours (work); contractor invoices, materials invoices. actual starts, finishes; duration of tasks progress of work: How many WBS tasks are complete How many are Work in Progress 31

32 Value of Work Completed (Earned Value) Earned Value (EV) defined as sum of budget values of work completed to date: i.e. EV for complete WBS tasks is equal to total budget for completed activity EV for WBS tasks not yet begun is zero. EV for WBS tasks in progress has to be estimated*. *Tricky - Must be measured with rationale Be aware of the we are 80% complete, Boss Syndrome 32

33 , $, etc Plan (baseline, budget = early curve) Budget at At Completion (BAC) (BAC) time now (ATE) Planned Value (PV) Project duration (PD) time 33

34 Value of Work Completed (Earned Value) At the review date called Actual Time Expended (ATE) i.e. Now Plot the Earned Value that you have computed (and validated) on the S Curve Chart. 34

35 , $, etc Earned ATE BAC ATE PV Earned Value (EV) On-plan duration - OD PD OD time 35

36 Scheduled Perform. Index: SPI(time) SPI(time) = OD / ATE (the ratio of on-time duration to actual time expended. OD is that time when current EV was the planned cost.) Interpretation SPI(time) = SPI t : SPI t > 1 project ahead of planned time SPI t < 1 project running late, beyond planned time 36

37 Forecast Project Duration (FPD) FPD = PD / SPI t (the ratio of the planned project duration and the time performance indicator forecasts the new finish/end date.) Interpretation FPD > PD project running late, OD < ATE, therefore SPI t is < 1 FPD < PD project ahead of schedule, ATE > OD, therefore SPI t is > 1 37

38 Actual Cost of Work Completed At ATE Get the Actual Value of all expenditure to date Labour hours x rates Material Invoices Services Invoices Sub contracts Invoices Total Include an assessment of Accruals for work done between invoice dates and ATE The total is Actual Cost incurred to date Do not forget that if you have placed orders you have committed the funds 38

39 , $, etc Actual ATE BAC ATE PV AC Earned Value (EV) On-plan duration - OD PD OD time 39

40 Cost Performance Index: CPI CPI = EV / AC (the ratio of the earned value and the actual cost of the work performed.) Interpretation: CPI > 1 under-spend CPI < 1 overspent for work done (healthy!) (bad!) 40

41 CPI To Forecast Costs The anticipated cost of the project continuing at the current cost rate is: EAC = BAC / CPI theory: assuming performance does not improve, the estimated completion cost is the planned cost divided by CPI. 41

42 What do you do now? Options Find another job Flee the country Try to find a reason why the client is to blame Find out who really is to blame Do the Analysis at the next level in the WBS to find out who is spending all your budget and why. Send your best people to help them. 42

43 Impact of Changes From FWWG versus Chevron

44 Better Project Delivery Conclusions Remember that Real World Class performances: Require meticulous planning and preparation Learned from mistakes and competition Careful monitoring of:- Schedule performance Cost performance FTA EV v AC Risk management Planning, Planning, Planning and more Planning 44

45 Pros and Cons of Planning! - Sir John Harvey-Jones The nicest thing about NOT planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise and is not preceded by a period of worry and depression. 45

46 Adept Knowledge Management Ltd Thank you for listening Ian Bell Adept Knowledge Management Ltd 5 Carden Place Aberdeen AB10 1UT +44 (0)