Commodity World Thursday, June 27, 2013

Transcription

1 Commodity Gold Silver Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude Nat. Gas Chana Coriander Turmeric Jeera Chilli Wheat Soybean Ref. Oil CPO RMSeed Menthaoil Potato Open High Low Close % Cng OI Market Rate % Cng $ Cng Trend Precious Metals Precious Metals $ Gold Positive $ Silver Positive Base Metal Base Metal LME Aluminium Positive LME Copper Positive LME Lead Positive LME Nickel Positive LME Zinc Positive Energy Energy $ Crude Positive $ Natural Gas Weak Pulses Other Market Indices BOVESPA INDEX Positive Spices NIKKEI Positive HANGSENG Positive KOSPI INDEX Positive NORDIC INDICES INDEX Positive JAKARTA Positive SET INDEX Positive Cereals DOW JONES Positive NASDAQ Positive S&P Weak Oilseed Complex & Others TWSE INDEX Positive CAC40 INDEX Positive DAX INDEX Positive FTSE Positive GOLD/SILVER RATIO #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! GOLD/CRUDE RATIO 4.51 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! GOLD/COPPER RATIO #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Aditya Birla Commodities Broking Limited Page 1

2 MCX Gold Aug 2013 Open High Low Close % Change OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Gold Intraday Highlights Gold trading range for the day is Gold dropped as a rallying U.S. equity markets further cut into demand for bullion as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Official data showed that the U.S. economy grew significantly less-than-expected in the first quarter of Demand in India is likely to fall this quarter as the government moves to curb gold imports to reduce a record current account deficit. SELL GOLD SL TGT MCX Gold yesterday settled down -1.59% at as compare with fall of -3.50% in international to its lowest in almost three years and was on course for a record quarterly loss after US data reinforced expectations for an end to ultra-loose monetary policy. Strong gains in US orders for durable goods, the largest annual rise in house prices in seven years and rising consumer confidence fuelled speculation the Fed would rein in its $85 billion monthly bond-buying programme, which had helped push gold prices to record highs in recent years. Gold prices have fallen by more than a quarter this year and by 22.8 percent this quarter, their biggest quarterly loss. Meanwhile the world's largest gold-backed ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Shares, reported the biggest one-day drop in its holdings in more than two months at tonnes on Tuesday. That brought the fund's total outflow for the year to 381 tonnes. Demand in number one consumer India is likely to fall this quarter as the government moves to curb gold imports to reduce a record current account deficit. In the latest move, India's central bank told rural regional banks on Tuesday they could no longer provide loans against gold jewellery and coins. Worries about a liquidity crunch in China, drove down share prices despite attempts by the Chinese central bank to soothe markets. Physical gold demand could be hurt by a slowdown in Chinese growth. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.14% to settled at while prices down -423 rupee, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 26528, a move above could see prices testing MCX Silver Jul 2013 Open High Low Close % Change OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Silver Intraday Highlights Silver trading range for the day is Silver tumbled amid concerns the Fed could taper down its bond purchases amid increasing signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy. The data showed personal consumption grew 2.6% in the first quarter, missing forecasts for a 3.4% increase. Moves in prices this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether U.S. would end its bond-buying program sooner-than-expected. SELL SILVER SL TGT MCX Silver yesterday settled down -2.69% at against -5% fall in international to hit the lowest level since August 2010, amid concerns the Fed could taper down its bond purchases amid increasing signs of a recovery in the US economy. Moves in the silver price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the US central bank would end its bond-buying program sooner-than-expected. US consumer confidence rose to highest level since January 2008 in the current month, data on Tuesday showed, while another report showed that US new home sales rose to an almost five year high May. A separate report showed that US durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in May. Silver prices lost 9% last week after Bernanke said that the bank could begin tapering asset purchases by the end of 2013 if the economy continues to pick up. Later in the day, the US Commerce Department is scheduled to release the third estimate of GDP for the first quarter. In US economic news published Wednesday, the US Commerce Department said US GDP grew 1.8% in the first quarter, well below the previous estimate of 2.4% growth. Only the home construction and government readings were not revised downward. That report sent US stocks soaring on speculation it was enough to prevent the Fed from immediately tapering its $85 billion-a-month easing program. Traders now view declines in the precious metals as breeding more declines and massive withdrawals from ETP such as the SPDR Gold Shares and ishares Silver Trust are believed to be making matters worse for futures prices. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 40465, a move above could see prices testing Aditya Birla Commodities Broking Limited Page 2

3 MCX Crudeoil Jul 2013 Open 5682 High 5814 Low 5653 Close 5795 % Change 1.81 OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Crude Intraday Highlights Crudeoil trading range for the day is Crudeoil yesterday settled up as traders in the region digested a bearish batch of weekly inventories data out of the US. U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories were unchanged. Also, revised data showed that the U.S. economy grew less than expected in the first quarter. SELL CRUDE OIL SL ABV 5839 TGT MCX (STBT) Crudeoil yesterday settled up 1.81% at 5795 edged higher on Wednesday as traders in the region digested a bearish batch of weekly inventories data out of the US. Earlier Wednesday, the US EIA said in its weekly report earlier that US crude oil inventories remained largely unchanged in the week ended June 21, confounding expectations for a decline of 1.7 million barrels. Total US crude oil inventories stood at million barrels as of last week. Supplies climbed to million earlier this month, the most since July The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels, above expectations for an increase of 855,000 barrels. Oil was also dragged lower by a disappointing US data point. In US economic news published Wednesday, the US Commerce Department said US GDP grew 1.8% in the first quarter, well below the previous estimate of 2.4% growth. Growth in consumer spending was slashed to 2.6% from 3.4%. Only the home construction and government readings were not revised downward. Meanwhile the Brent benchmark is down 8.5 percent for the quarter, its third quarterly loss in a row, having dropped after Bernanke laid out a roadmap last week to slow bond buying and on concerns about an economic slowdown in China. Also supporting prices, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Wednesday the ECB was nowhere near exiting its accommodative monetary policy, while seeing gradual recovery in the region by the end of the year. Technically market is getting support at 5694 and below same could see a test of 5593 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5855, a move above could see prices testing MCX Copper Jun 2013 Open High Low Close % Change 1.31 OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Copper Intraday Highlights Copper trading range for the day is Copper gained on rupee weakness after prices pressured on concerns about the outlook for demand from China. Also hitting sentiment were growing expectations that improving U.S economic conditions could prompt Fed to rein in its stimulus programme Draghi said ECB was nowhere near exiting its accommodative monetary policy while seeing gradual recovery in the region by the end of the year. SELL COPPER 412 SL TGT MCX Copper yesterday settled up 1.31% at as support seen from rupee weakness which breached formidable resistance of 60 to the dollar to slump to a record low, reinforcing the vulnerability of a country with limited reserves and struggling to narrow a record-high current account deficit. While Copper futures were down sharply in international market reapproaching the previous session s three-year low after a series of upbeat US data releases on Tuesday reinforced the view that Fed will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months. Comex copper prices fell to $2.985 a pound on Tuesday, the weakest level since July 20, 2010, amid growing fears over a cash crunch in the Chinese financial system. Meanwhile, concerns the Fed could taper down its bond purchases amid increasing signs of a recovery in the US economy also weighed. US consumer confidence rose to highest level since January 2008 in the current month, while another report showed that US new home sales rose to an almost five year high May. Bernanke said last week that the central bank could begin tapering asset purchases by the end of this year if the economy continues to pick up. Later in the day, the US Commerce Department is scheduled to release the third estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as a combination of concerns over a deepening slowdown in China and fears over an end to the Federal Reserve s asset purchase program weighed. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Aditya Birla Commodities Broking Limited Page 3

4 MCX Nickel Jun 2013 Open High Low Close % Change OI 8679 Resit Resit Sup Sup Nickel Intraday Highlights Nickel trading range for the day is Nickel seen under pressure as money shortfalls in China continued to affect the nickel prices PBOC said late it had provided cash to some institutions facing temporary shortages and would continue to do so if needed. Inspired by LME nickel prices, both Jinchuan and Russian nickel prices rose by RMB 600/mt, with nickel prices advancing to RMB 96,500-97,500/mt. SELL NICKEL JUNE BELOW 825 SL 834 TGT MCX Nickel yesterday settled down -0.17% at tracking LME nickel prices which closed at USD 13,630/mt, down USD 270/mt due to sliding China's stocks leading declines of other base metals. Money shortfalls in China continued to affect the LME nickel market, and US Q1 GDP fell short of expectations, causing speculations that the cut of QE will be contracted, but this failed to boost LME nickel prices. Worries over economic growth and liquidity crunch in China continued to weigh on commodity prices. The downward revision of US 1Q GDP also undermined sentiment in base metal market. On the other hand, remarks from the head of major central banks are providing a source of comfort. President of the Bank of England said investors overreached to Fed Chairman Bernanke s speech. ECB President Mario Draghi said in terms of monetary policy, price stability is assured, and the overall economic outlook still warrants an accommodative stance, the exit from which by the way is still distant since inflation is low and unemployment is high. Worse-than-expected US 1Q GDP makes investors guess as to whether the US Fed will keep QE3 in place, pushing US shares up, with the Dow Jones up over 1%. European stocks closed 1.7% higher. Gold prices, however, trimmed 3.6%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.88% to settled at 8679 while prices down -1.4 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 831.3, a move above could see prices testing MCX Menthaoil Jul 2013 Open High Low Close % Change OI 3488 Resit Resit Sup Sup Menthaoil Intraday Highlights Menthaoil trading range for the day is Menthaoil spot is at 1097/-. Spot market is down by Rs.23/-. Mentha oil ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand as profit booking was noted Sources are suggesting some more supplies of new mentha oil in the first week of June. MENTHAOIL WILL WAIT FOR ENTRY FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORTIVE STILL Menthaoil yesterday settled down -2.71% at tracking weakness in spot demand as profit booking was noted amidst fall in demand in the mandis. The recent rains have however affected the harvesting process and this could keep trend firm in medium term. Sources are suggesting some more supplies of new mentha oil in the first week of June. Moreover, weak demand by exporters also added some selling in the mentha oil market. The concerns of shift in production trend from natural mentha oil to synthetic mentha oil in international market might discourage the export demand of mentha oil in the coming months. Besides the new arrivals, the strong production estimates also propelled some stockiest selling from higher levels. The total mentha oil production is expected to be in the range of tonnes in the current year, up almost 10-12% from the last year. This is mainly due to the better price realization and favourable crop conditions. Moreover, the total opening stocks of Mentha oil are expected to reach tonnes in the next year. This may also convene the sufficient supplies of mentha oil next year. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.36% to settled at 3488 while prices down rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 990 and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Aditya Birla Commodities Broking Limited Page 4

5 NCDEX Turmeric Jul 2013 Open 5982 High 6098 Low 5940 Close 6068 % Change 1.27 OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Turmeric Intraday Highlights Turmeric trading range for the day is Turmeric gains as a drop in local supplies supported prices but mounting stocks and good progress of sowing limited the upside. Spot supplies have declined as the season has drawn to a close and farmers are busy with planting. NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 60 tonnes to 5051 tonnes. BUY TURMERIC 5950 SL 5820 TGT NCDEX Turmeric yesterday settled up 1.64% at 6090 as a drop in local supplies supported prices but mounting stocks and good progress of sowing due to sufficient rainfall limited the upside. Spot supplies have declined as the season has drawn to a close and farmers are busy with planting. Local and export demand is there but favourable weather conditions and sowing operations are weighing on the sentiment. Good rainfall reports in the growing areas preventing rates from moving up a lot. Overall good rainfall activity in growing states of AP, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu could prevent strong upside movement. The sowing process to start over the next few months would be benefitted by early rains and there could be prospects of sowing area rising further. All India turmeric farmers association had requested Tamil Nadu Government to procure turmeric at MSP of Rs 10,000 per quintal. The association added, being a seasonal crop, the sowing of the spice is expected to be lower in major producing belts in the current year due to water scarcity in Andhra and Karnataka etc. Turmeric cultivation usually starts in June and continues until August, and a lengthy harvesting process begins from January. Turmeric exports were up by 1% at 80,050 tonnes and value was down 26% to Rs 53, Lakh, during 2012 April to March 13. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5772 rupees gained 67 rupees. Now Turmeric is getting support at 5987 and below same could see a test of 5885 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6145, a move above could see prices testing NCDEX Jeera Jul 2013 Open High Low Close % Change OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Jeera Intraday Highlights Jeera trading range for the day is Jeera dropped due to increased supplies in the local market while good rainfall also weighed on sentiment. Daily spot supplies are at 8,000-10,000 bags of 60 kg each in the Unjha market, still higher than expected. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera edged up by rupees to end at rupee per 100 kg. BUY JEERA SL TGT NCDEX Jeera yesterday settled down -1.92% at due to increased supplies in the local market while good rainfall also weighed on sentiment. Jeera is a winter crop sown from October and farmers depend on rains to moisten the land for sowing. Daily spot supplies are at 8,000-10,000 bags of 60 kg each in the Unjha market, still higher than expected. The total Jeera production in the country is estimated around lakh bags in the current year, up almost 1-2 lakh bags from the last year. This is mainly due to sowing in Rajasthan and better recovery of Jeera from Gujarat. Moreover, hedgers selling in futures market in order to protect their long position in physical market also might add selling pressure in Jeera market. The arrivals have been sliding in last few weeks as the peak supply season gets over. The commodity normally witnesses a flood of fresh supplies in March-May and the arrivals tend to slide thereafter. The trend is similar this year as well. Traders are expecting that the total production of Jeera in the current year is expected to be around lakh bags, up 1 lakh bags from the last year. This is mainly due to better crop productivity in some areas of Gujarat and quality is poor in Rajasthan. The counter may witness some bargain buying on some export orders in long term as supply constraints exits in Syria, Turkey. Good sowing reports from Gujarat and Rajasthan keeps the production prospects good. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera edged up by rupees to end at rupee per 100 kg. Now Jeera is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 13607, a move above could see prices testing Aditya Birla Commodities Broking Limited Page 5

6 NCDEX Soyabean Jul 2013 Open 3700 High 3703 Low 3607 Close 3673 % Change OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Soyabean Intraday Highlights Soyabean trading range for the day is Soybean prices ended down on weak demand and increased supplies. Good crop prospects and weak overseas markets are behind low intake. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -122 rupee to 3688 rupee per 100 kgs. SELL SOYABEAN 3695 SL 3720 TGT NCDEX Soyabean yesterday settled down -1.44% at 3674 on weak demand and increased supplies. Good crop prospects and weak overseas markets are behind low intake. Good rains have given way to early sowing in most growing regions which indicates better production. Arrivals would have been more but rains disrupted the trade in many Madhya Pradesh mandis. Arrivals of soyabean in Madhya Pradesh state dropped by bags of 100kg each to bags of 100kg each. Arrivals of soyabean in Maharashtra state dropped by bags of 100kg each to bags of 100kg each. However, soybean acreage in the country is expected rise on favourable monsoon rain fall. Good monsoon followed by a rise in soybean sowing is expected to pressurise the commodity movement to some extent in the long term. Soybean acreage in India is expected to go up by 5-7% this year, according to Soybean Processors Association of India (SPAI). In 2012 (kharif crop) the total area under soybean crop was mn hectare (ha). Last year, the total area under the soybean crop in Madhya Pradesh was mn ha while Maharashtra cultivated in an area of mn ha, according to SOPA. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -122 rupee to 3688 rupee per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by % to settled at while prices down rupee, now Soyabean is getting support at 3620 and below same could see a test of 3565 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3716, a move above could see prices testing NCDEX Chana Jul 2013 Open 3225 High 3229 Low 3134 Close 3140 % Change OI Resit Resit Sup Sup Chana Intraday Highlights Chana trading range for the day is Chana edged lower weighed by good progress in the summer sowing of pulses due to monsoon rains. Chana sowing for the current kharif season is expected to go up on good monsoon rain fall. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by rupee to end at 3150 rupee per 100 kgs. CHANA AFTER YESTREDAY'S FALL TODAY MAY SEE BOUNCE Chana yesterday settled down -2.76% at 3141 weighed by good progress in the summer sowing of pulses due to monsoon rains. Chana output is expected to be 8.49 million tonnes in 2012/13 according to the agriculture ministry's third advance estimate, as against 7.70 million tonnes a year earlier. Chana sowing for the current kharif season is expected to go up on good monsoon rain fall. Sowing for kharif pulses crop commenced and 3.74 lakh hectares (ha) of land has been covered. The area under sown is higher when compared to the normal sowing of 1.22 lakh ha. Last year, deficient rains adversely affected the sowing process of chana for kharif crop. The sowing was down by 16 percent. The overall movement in the ready market is lax and prices are not showing much of movement. The arrivals in Delhi's Lawrence Road mandi are 30 trucks today as compared to 40 trucks in last session. Meanwhile, there are some concerns lingering on the pulses sowing in Maharashtra in select pockets.. The demand is moderate in other pulses like Tur and Masur. The spot prices are off their two-year lows but the commodity is down around 20% on a year ago basis as well. The total output of Chana is likely to be 8.57 million tonnes in the current year. This marks a gain of 11.29% compared to the last year's production of 7.57 million tonnes. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -59 rupee to end at 3150 rupee per 100 kgs. Now Chana is getting support at 3107 and below same could see a test of 3073 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3202, a move above could see prices testing Aditya Birla Commodities Broking Limited Page 6

7 Economical Data Spread View DAY TIME ZONE DATA EXP PREV Commodity Spread 11:30am EUR German Import Prices m/m MCX GOLD AUG-OCT :25pm EUR German Unemployment Change 7K 21K MCX SILVER JUL-SEP :30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y MCX CRUDEOIL JUL-AUG :30pm EUR Private Loans y/y MCX NATURALGAS JUL-AUG :40pm EUR Retail PMI MCX ZINC JUN-JUL 1.30 Day 1 EUR EU Economic Summit 0 0 MCX NICKEL JUN-JUL :00pm USD Unemployment Claims 347K 354K MCX LEAD JUN-JUL :00pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m MCX ALUMINIUM JUN-JUL :00pm USD Personal Spending m/m MCX CARDAMOM JUL-AUG :00pm USD Personal Income m/m NCDEX DHANIYA JUL-AUG :30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m NCDEX JEERAUNJHA JUL-AUG :30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 0 0 NCDEX TMCFGRNZM JUL-AUG :00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 0 91B NCDEX CHLL334GTR JUL-AUG MCX CPO JUN-JUL 2.20 Economic Updates MCX MENTHAOIL JUL-AUG NCDEX RMSEED JUL-AUG Global zinc mine production in 2012 increased slightly to 13 million tons. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, NCDEX SYBEANIDR JUL-OCT refined metal production decreased by 2% to 12.9 million tons in 2012, and world metal consumption also declined slightly to 12.7 NCDEX CHARJDDEL JUL-AUG million tons, resulting in a market surplus of 153,000 tons of metal. A larger surplus was anticipated in Significant increases in zinc consumption in 2012 took place in India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Turkey. Consumption rose slightly in the United States while remaining flat in Japan. In China, consumption rose by only 0.5%, and in Europe, zinc consumption contracted by 5%.US Ratio Trading zinc mine production decreased in 2012 from that of 2011 despite an increase in zinc production from zinc mines in Tennessee. A zinclead Commodity Ratio mine in Alaska produced significantly less zinc as a result of lower ore-processing rates, and a zinc-producing mine in Idaho was Gold Silver ratio temporarily idled for the year while the company carried out underground structural work. Zinc metal production rose in 2012 owing mostly to increased secondary zinc production from a smelter in Pennsylvania, which began sourcing higher quality raw materials in Gold Crude ratio 4.51 the first quarter, and subsequently improved zinc recovery rates during the year. Apparent zinc consumption increased in 2012 from Gold Copper ratio that of 2011 owing to increased demand for zinc at continuous galvanizing plants. Silver Crude ratio 6.83 Silver Copper ratio Crude Natural Gas ratio Thursday, June 27, 2013 Lead Zinc ratio 1.12 China's financial markets were calmed after days of turmoil by the central bank's pledge to prevent any lasting credit crunch, but stocks kept slipping as investors braced for tougher conditions in the world's second-largest economy. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said late on Tuesday it had helped some banks and was ready to act again as the lender of last resort for those caught in a short-term squeeze. However, it was also sticking to its stance of tightening market conditions as it seeks to rein in sharp growth in informal lending. The central bank wants to curtail funds flowing into China's vast "shadow" financial system that fuels property and stock speculation and push money into more productive areas of the economy to secure more sustained growth. But its decision to allow short-term borrowing costs to shoot up to extraordinary levels last week fanned fears that a temporary squeeze could morph into a lasting credit crunch and had roiled global markets.the PBOC reiterated its warning to banks that they needed to manage liquidity more carefully and protect against risks of reliance on short-term borrowing, adding to expectations of tougher business conditions and possibly slower economic growth. So while most Asian share markets rebounded from a four-day losing streak, taking comfort from encouraging U.S. economic data and the PBOC assurances, shares in Shanghai were lower, again led by financial stocks which at one point were down well over 2 percent. LME Stock (Tons) Commodity Change Stock Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium Lead Aditya Birla Commodities Broking Limited Page 7

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