Commodity Buzz Agri. February 15, Index. Key points Castor Seed Cotton Jeera Soyabean. Visit us at

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1 Commodity Buzz Agri February 15, 2018 Index Key points Castor Seed Cotton Jeera Soyabean Visit us at For Private Circulation only

2 Unseasonal rains in Maharashtra damage crops across 1 lakh hectares Agricultural sector highlights: Sugar prices jump 15% in one week on higher import duty and stock limits Jeera output likely to increase 20% on higher sowing Chana prices continue to slide on higher sowing Coffee growers want the Government to consider a MSP or a price compensation scheme FEB 4,095 4,102 4,031 4,083 4, MAR 4,162 4,162 4,080 4,105 4, APR 4,216 4,220 4,152 4,182 4, MAY 4,223 4,223 4,223 4,223 4, PRICE FEB MAR APR MAY SPOT 4, FEB 4, MAR 4, APR 4, MAY 4, Bhabhar MT Deesa MT Kadi MT Patan MT Total MT Castor seed Castor seed March declined 1.49% on Wednesday on weak demand, poor off takes and higher arrivals. Demand from overseas markets for castor oil also remained weak. Prices made a new contract low of Rs last month. However, lower output concerns supported prices at lower levels. Government proposed to increase customs duty on crude and refined castor oil to 30% and 35% respectively in the Union Budget. Prices in Deesa traded around while prices in Gondal traded around Prices in Harij traded around Rs while prices in Kadi traded around (Source: Agriwatch) Sowing of castor seed in 2017 stood at 8.30 lakh ha compared with 8.56 lakh ha during the corresponding period last year. It was 17.19% lower compared with 5 year average of lakh ha. Gujarat Agriculture Department revised castor seed output lower to lakh tonnes, 11% lower compared to its previous estimates. According to SEA, India exported 31,129 tonnes castor seed meal in January 18 compared to 14,749 tonnes in January 17. The Ministry of Agriculture released 1st Advance Estimates for , wherein it has estimated castor seed output at lakh tonnes compared to lakh tonnes last year. Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 25,840 mt out of which 25,769 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 71 mt are in process. Castor seed may continue to trade on a negative note. Ample supplies, weak demand from bulk consumers and expectations of higher yield may keep prices under pressure. However, short coverings may be seen at lower levels. Value buying and lower level demand may support prices at lower levels. Good castor meal exports may also support prices. 2 February 15,

3 Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Buzz FEB 19,860 19,900 19,670 19,730 19, MAR 20,100 20,130 19,910 19,970 20, APR 20,330 20,330 20,130 20,180 20, MAY ,400 20, PRICE FEB MAR APR MAY SPOT 19, FEB 19, MAR 19, APR 20, MAY 20, Rajkot Bales Kadi Bales Mundra Bales Jalna Bales Yavatmal Bales Adilabad Bales Warangal Bales Total Bales Cotton Cotton Feb futures declined 0.90% on Wednesday on weak overseas markets and a strong rupee. Prices also declined on long liquidation and increasing arrivals at higher prices. Prices gained earlier on tight supplies and good export demand. Crop damage in Maharashtra and Telangana also supported prices. Cotton Advisory Board has projected output 9% up at 37.7mn bales. Cotton Association of India pegged output at 37.5 mn bales compared with mn bales last year. Gujarat government has announced Rs 500/qtl bonus on cotton. Sowing of cotton stood 19.27% higher at lakh ha v/s lakh ha during the corresponding period last year. Prices in Rajkot traded at Rs /qtl while Bhatinda traded at Rs /maund. (Source: Agriwatch) ICE Cotton futures declined 0.75% on Wednesday on higher sowing expectations next year and higher supplies. Prices gained earlier on bullish weekly export sales data and mill buying, good export demand and quality concerns. The WASDE report forecast global output higher at mn bales v/s mn bales last month. It pegged 2017/18 global end stocks higher at 88.55mn bales v/s mn bales. China s 2017 output is expected to increase 2.7% to 5.5 mn tonne. The Ministry of Agriculture released 1st Advance Estimates for , wherein it has estimated cotton output lk bales compared to lk bales in Total stocks on MCX accredited warehouses stand at 106,200 bales out of which 97,900 bales are valid stocks while 8,300 bales are in process. Cotton may trade on a negative note. Weak overseas markets, increasing arrivals and long liquidation may pressurize prices. However, short coverings may be seen at lower levels. Tight supplies and good export demand may support prices. Crop damage in Telangana and Maharashtra may also support prices. February 15,

4 Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Buzz MAR 15,970 16,050 15,810 15,895 16, APR 16,280 16,310 16,120 16,165 16, MAY 16,535 16,535 16,325 16,375 16, JUNE ,585 16, PRICE MAR APR MAY JUNE SPOT 19,263-3,368-3,098-2,888-2,678 MAR 15, APR 16, MAY 16, JUNE 16, Jodhpur MT Unjha MT Total MT Jeera Jeera March declined 1.24% on Wednesday and touched a new contract low of Rs. 15,810 on arrival pressure of the new crop. Prices gained earlier last week on good demand. Prices declined over the past few days on higher output expectations and higher sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Jeera acreage in Gujarat increased percent at 3,82,600 ha vs 2,78,700 ha last year. The geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey have hit supplies from the exporting nations. Prices in Delhi spot traded around Rs. 19,500 for Ganesh variety. Prices in Unjha declined to Rs. 16,500. (Source: Agriwatch) Prices gained sharply earlier last year on lower acreage, lower domestic supplies due to record exports and lower carryover stocks. Output in in Gujarat is expected around 2.21 lakh tonnes, compared with 2.38 lakh tonnes last year. According to the Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera from India in FY stood at 119,000 MT, 22 percent higher compared to last year. In value terms, exports jumped 28 percent to Rs crores. Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 8,898 mt out of which 8,898 mt are valid stocks while 0 mt are in process. Jeera may trade on a negative note. New crop arrival pressure, higher sowing this season and expectations of higher output this year may continue to pressurize prices. However, short coverings may be seen at lower levels. Demand in the spot market may support prices at lower levels. Good demand from the export markets may also support prices. 4 February 15,

5 Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Buzz FEB 3,808 3,823 3,735 3,744 3, MAR 3,857 3,890 3,745 3,765 3, APR 3,918 3,918 3,796 3,816 3, MAY 3,970 3,970 3,849 3,874 3, PRICE FEB MAR APR MAY SPOT 3, FEB 3, MAR 3, APR 3, MAY 3, Akola MT Indore MT Kota MT Latur MT Mandsaur MT Nagpur MT Sagar MT Shujalpur MT Vidisha MT Total MT Soybean Soybean March declined 1.75% on Wednesday on profit taking. Prices gained earlier this week on renewed buying and touched a new contract high of Rs Tight supplies and good demand due to lower global output also supported prices. Good demand from crushers also supported prices. Prices declined earlier on long liquidation and weak demand at higher levels. Meal export demand is weak on disparity. Prices in Indore traded around Rs Prices in Kota spot market traded around Rs (Source: Agriwatch) Soybean on CBOT gained 0.62% Wednesday on dry weather concerns in Argentina and bullish soy meal prices. Lower US soy output expectations and Chinese demand also supported prices. WASDE report left US output unchanged at bn bsh. It raised end stocks estimate to 530 mn bsh v/s 470 mn bsh. It cut global output to mn tn v/s mn tn and raised global end stocks to mn tn v/s mn tn. Sowing of soybean stood 7.67% lower at lakh ha compared to lakh ha last year. SOPA revised output to 11.4 mn tn compared with 7 mn tn last year. According to SEA, Soymeal exports in December 2017 declined 30% to 168,865 tonnes compared to 241,250 tonnes in December The Ministry of Agriculture released 1st Advance Estimates for , wherein it has estimated soybean output lk tonnes compared with lk tonnes in Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 186,873 mt of which 186,148 mt are valid stocks while 725 mt are in process. Soybean may trade positive. Positive overseas markets, tight supplies and lower output may support prices. However, weak demand from crushers at higher levels may cap sharp gains. Profit taking may be seen at higher levels. February 15,

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