Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, August 24, Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 1

Transcription

1 Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, August 24, 2018 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 1

2 INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE GOLD $ EURUSD LME COPPER LME ALUMINIUM SENSEX USDINR SILVER $ CRUDE $ GBPUSD USDJPY LME 2501 LME ZINC 1.46 NICKEL LME $ INDEX 0.31 LEAD NIFTY DJIA S&P NIKKEI 0.29 INDEX Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 2

3 MCX Gold Oct 2018 Gold prices fell as fears of another round of U.S. tariffs on China and expectations of higher interest rates lifted the dollar. Gold on MCX settled down -0.24% at as fears of another round of U.S. tariffs on China and expectations of higher interest rates lifted the dollar. Federal Reserve policymakers broadly agree that U.S. interest rates should rise further this year and next, despite U.S. President Donald Trump s displeasure with such a plan, two policymakers comments underscored. The Fed s latest policy meeting minutes suggested it is on course to raise interest rates further after two hikes this year, denting demand for non-interest-yielding gold. Markets are awaiting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell s comments on Friday at the central bank s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for any change in its interest rate stance, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump s attack on its monetary policy this week. U.S. and Chinese officials ended two days of talks on Thursday with no major breakthrough as their trade war escalated with activation of another round of tariffs on $16 billion worth of each country s goods. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week but sales of new single-family homes unexpectedly declined in July. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world s largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund, fell 0.19 percent to tonnes on Thursday from Wednesday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.54% to settled at 7897 while prices down -70 rupees, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29678, a move above could see prices testing Gold trading range for the day is RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT Minutes of the Federal Reserve s latest policy meeting suggested the U.S. central bank is on course to further raise interest rates after it raised rates twice this year. U.S. and Chinese officials met for the first time in over two months to find a way out of their deepening trade conflict RESIST 3 RESIST Markets are now keeping a close eye on the Fed s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Friday for any change in stance from the central bank. SUPPORT 3 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 3

4 MCX Silver Sep 2018 Silver prices pressured lower by the stronger dollar, which bounced on expectations for higher U.S. interest rates and rising trade tensions. Silver on MCX settled down -0.79% at pressured lower by the stronger dollar, which bounced on expectations for higher U.S. interest rates and rising trade tensions. The dollar was boosted after the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated that further interest rate hikes are in the pipeline. Fed policymakers said they continued to expect the U.S. economy to expand at an above-trend pace. The minutes also showed that officials discussed how global trade disputes could affect businesses and households. The Fed has raised rates twice this year and is expected to raise rates again next month and one more time this year. Demand for the dollar was also boosted by a fresh escalation in the U.S.- China trade war and worries over U.S. President Donald Trump s political standing following the criminal convictions this week of two of his former associates. Another round of U.S. tariffs on $16 billion in Chinese goods went into effect on Thursday. Beijing was quick to respond with promises to file a new complaint with the World Trade Organization and retaliatory tariffs for the same amount. The tit-for-tat trade spat between the world s two largest economies continues even as representatives from both countries are engaged in low-level talks in the U.S. Earlier this week, Trump played down the prospects of any imminent success from the discussions, saying that he didn t anticipate much of an outcome. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.11% to settled at while prices down -292 rupees, now Silver is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36751, a move above could see prices testing Silver trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT The precious metal lost momentum as fears of another round of U.S. tariffs on China and expectations of higher interest rates lifted the US dollar. The Federal Reserve said in its most recent policy meeting that it is ready to hike rates again as long as the U.S. economy remains healthy Meanwhile, China and the U.S. officials held lower-level trade talks for the first time in two months as the two countries seek to resolve the escalating trade dispute. Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 4

5 MCX Crudeoil Sep 2018 Crude oil gained recovering from lows as Washington's sanctions on Iran signaled tightening supplies. Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.23% at 4774 recovering from lows as Washington's sanctions on Iran signaled tightening supplies and amid bullish impact of a decline in U.S. commercial crude inventories. The United States imposed 25% tariffs on an additional $16 billion of Chinese goods just after Thursday, prompting China to respond with in-kind measures against U.S. goods. That renewed fears of a full-blown U.S. and China trade war, which could not only dent global growth but likely lead to a slowdown in oil demand. The IEA recently warned "trade tensions might escalate and lead to slower economic growth, and in turn lower oil demand." This could dent oil prices, the IEA said, as it would alleviate the pressure on already low spare oil capacity amid expectations that U.S. sanctions on Iran will pressure global oil supplies. President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement in May, allowing sanctions against Iran to snap back into place. Crude oil prices are on track to snap a three-week losing streak after rising 3% Wednesday on the back a government data showing a larger-thanexpected fall in U.S. crude supplies last week. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by million barrels for the week ended Aug. 17, well above expectations for a draw of million barrels, according to data from the EIA. Oil-market observers will likely turn to the Baker Hughes rig count data Friday for signs that U.S. output continues to tighten after data on Wednesday showed U.S. oil output continued to expand. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 4742 and below same could see a test of 4711 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4796, a move above could see prices testing Crudeoil trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels in the week to Aug. 17 to million barrels, the EIA said in its weekly report. Kuwait is likely to sign deals with Saudi Arabia and Iraq to develop shared oil fields by the end of this year and start producing oil soon The Kuwait s Oil Minister said matters with brothers in Saudi Arabia are going at a steady pace and we expect the return of production in the divided region soon. Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 5

6 MCX Copper Aug 2018 Copper prices slid as a trade dispute between Washington and Beijing deepened, triggering concerns about demand for industrial metals. Copper on MCX settled down -0.35% at dropped in the line of expectation tracking weakness from LME copper prices which edged down moving lower for a third straight session due to a stronger dollar and after U.S. and Chinese officials ended two days of trade talks without any major breakthroughs. LME copper is still on course to end the week 0.7 percent higher, which would mark its first weekly jump since the week ended Jul. 27, as the trade talks fuelled optimism. The metal remains down 5.2 percent this month on concerns the U.S.-China trade row will hurt demand for industrial metals and is heading for its worst month since August Last night the dollar stopped a five-day losing streak and the euro fell on Thursday. The greenback received a boost from political uncertainty, a new round of trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting minutes that left little doubt that the US central bank will further raise interest rates. The dollar index gained 0.57% to close at LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. Lead soared over 2%, aluminium inched up 0.24%, zinc nudged up 0.1% while copper dropped 0.76% and nickel slumped 2.5%. Meanwhile the global world refined copper market showed a 31,000-tonne deficit in May, compared with a 105,000-tonne deficit in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Now day ahead the key developments to monitor today are Germany s GDP growth in the second quarter, US durable goods orders data for July. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 413.8, a move above could see prices testing Copper trading range for the day is RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT China and US will hold lower-level trade talks this week to resolve an escalating tariff war that threatens to engulf all trade between the world s two largest economies. Hedge funds and money managers trimmed their net short position in copper futures and options, data from the U.S. commodity regulator showed. Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at mt that is up by 4100mt RESIST 3 RESIST SUPPORT 3 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 6

7 MCX Zinc Aug 2018 Zinc prices gained on short covering after prices remained under pressure after a new round of US tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese imports took effect o Zinc on MCX settled up 0.69% at tracking firmness from LME Zinc where longs where added positions, LME reversed early losses and closed at $2,465/mt on Thursday as sentiments improved after China s central bank said it will not resort to strong stimulus to support the slowing economy, but will keep liquidity reasonably ample and offer more help to companies that are having trouble obtaining financing. While Last night the dollar stopped a five-day losing streak and the euro fell on Thursday. The greenback received a boost from political uncertainty, a new round of trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting minutes that left little doubt that the US central bank will further raise interest rates. The dollar index gained 0.57% to close at LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. Lead soared over 2%, aluminium inched up 0.24%, zinc nudged up 0.1% while copper dropped 0.76% and nickel slumped 2.5%. Also SHFE base metals also saw mixed performance overnight. Lead and zinc jumped over 1%, aluminium increased 0.55%, copper gained 0.46% while nickel fell over 1%. Data from US side showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign that the labour market was holding firm despite tensions between the US and its trading partners that have grown restrictions on global commerce. Now day ahead the key developments to monitor today are Germany s GDP growth in the second quarter, US durable goods orders data for July. Also a three-day congregation among leading central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, began on Thursday. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 175.5, a move above could see prices testing Zinc trading range for the day is RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT Shanghai zinc stocks at 34,930 tonnes, the lowest since November 2007, having fallen by 14,313 tonnes from the previous week. China's production of zinc, slipped by 3.5 pct year-on-year in July to its lowest monthly level since August 2013, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at mt that is down by -800mt RESIST 3 RESIST SUPPORT 3 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 7

8 Nickel prices dropped as the US-China trade dispute worsened. MCX Nickel Aug 2018 Nickel on MCX settled down -2.01% at struggled to maintain the midweek relief rally amid a resurgence of US-Sino trade tensions. With pessimistic sentiment over a trade war, the SHFE Nickel contract fell below 110,000 yuan/mt and closed at 109,380 yuan/mt. Last night the dollar stopped a five-day losing streak and the euro fell on Thursday. The greenback received a boost from political uncertainty, a new round of trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting minutes that left little doubt that the US central bank will further raise interest rates. The dollar index gained 0.57% to close at LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. Lead soared over 2%, aluminium inched up 0.24%, zinc nudged up 0.1% while copper dropped 0.76% and nickel slumped 2.5%. Also SHFE base metals also saw mixed performance overnight. Lead and zinc jumped over 1%, aluminium increased 0.55%, copper gained 0.46% while nickel fell over 1%. Data from US side showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign that the labour market was holding firm despite tensions between the US and its trading partners that have grown restrictions on global commerce. While Sales of new US single-family homes unexpectedly fell in July to a nine-month low in a sign that the housing market was cooling. Now day ahead the key developments to monitor today are Germany s GDP growth in the second quarter, US durable goods orders data for July. Also a three-day congregation among leading central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, began on Thursday. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 935.9, a move above could see prices testing Nickel trading range for the day is RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT The United States and China escalated their acrimonious trade war on Thursday, implementing punitive 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion worth of each other s goods. China s central bank said it will not resort to strong stimulus to support the slowing economy, but will keep liquidity reasonably ample. Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at mt that is down by -114mt RESIST 3 RESIST SUPPORT 3 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 8

9 NCDEX Jeera Sep 2018 Jeera settled down tracking weakness in spot demand after prices gained in recent sessions on lower rains in northern Gujarat. Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -0.1% at on lower rains in northern Gujarat, good physical and exports demands from China and Bangladesh. India's cumin output fell to 489,000 ton from 503,000 ton a year ago and as a result stocks with traders and farmers are stated to lower. As per trade information, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to heavy rainfall in June support Indian Jeera in International market. Quality wise (due to heavy rainfall) and price wise Indian Jeera more affordable than other producing country. Lower Jeera supply reported in the spot market during the period, as stockists were holding back their stocks on expectations of higher prices in coming days. Jeera supply from last year up by 100% due to increased production current year. Currently, all India stocks reported around lakh bags. According to export data released by Commerce ministry, exports in May surged 96% on year to 27,790 tonnes. Moreover, country exports about 87,115 tonnes of Jeera during Mar-May Jeera arrivals during July are pegged at 8,700 tonnes compared to 3,800 tonnes last year for same period. India is expected to export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in (Apr-Mar), primarily because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it the sole supplier of the largely sought after spice, trade officials said. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by Rupees to end at Rupees per 100 kg.technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by % to settled at 7485, now Jeera is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20500, a move above could see prices testing Jeera trading range for the day is RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT India's cumin output fell to 489,000 ton from 503,000 ton a year ago and as a result stocks with traders and farmers are stated to lower. NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 116 tonnes to 3015 tonnes. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera edged down by rupees to end at rupee per 100 kg RESIST 3 RESIST SUPPORT 3 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 9

10 NCDEX Turmeric Sep 2018 Turmeric dropped on reports of improved sowing from major growing areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -2.08% at 6878 on reports of improved sowing from major growing areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. In Telangana, turmeric acreage grew to 46,718 hectare until August 8 from 44,299 hectare a year ago, state government data showed. In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric sowing reported 12,320 hectares as compared to 7,998 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 68% sowing completed from season normal. In Telangana, Turmeric sowing as on 01 August 2018 reported 46,692 hectares as compared to 41,715 hectares in the corresponding period last year. 85% sowing completed from season normal. As per estimates, in normal monsoon condition Turmeric all India area may go up by 12-14% as compared to last year due to higher prices. Spot turmeric prices decreased at the markets in Erode due to the non-receipt of fresh upcountry demand. Further, the second turmeric sale season will start by September, so the farmers, expecting good price for their produce, held back and brought only medium and poor quality turmeric. Around 2,600 bags arrived for sale and 60 per cent were sold. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, finger turmeric went for Rs. 5,798-8,222 a quintal; root variety for Rs. 5,488-7,333. Of the 2,461 bags on sale, 908 were traded. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by % to settled at while prices down -146 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6758 and below same could see a test of 6640 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7038, a move above could see prices testing Turmeric trading range for the day is RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT In Telangana, turmeric acreage grew to 46,718 hectare until August 8 from 44,299 hectare a year ago, state government data showed. NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 49 tonnes to 4875 tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees RESIST 3 RESIST SUPPORT 3 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 10

11 MCX Menthaoil Aug 2018 Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.19% at due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around 80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in India for crop year will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at per 1kg. Spot prices was remain unchangeby Rs.0.00/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by % to settled at 922 while prices up 3.1 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Menthaoil trading range for the day is Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at per 1kg. Spot prices was remain unchangeby Rs.0.00/-. Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users RESIST 3 RESIST SUPPORT 3 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 11

12 COMMODITIES CLOSE RESISTANCE SUPPORT NCDEX CHANA Sep 2018 NCDEX Cotton Oct 2018 NCDEX Jeera Oct 2018 DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL NCDEX Guarseed10 Oct 2018 NCDEX Turmeric Sep 2018 NCDEX Rmseed Sep P. POINT MCX CPO Aug 2018 NCDEX Soyabean Oct Cng in OI TREND Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Long Liquidation NCDEX Ref.Soya oil Sep Long Liquidation LME DAILY STOCK POSITION 4100 CommodiME STOCK Stock COPPER ALUMINIU NICKEL LEAD ZINC ECONOMICAL DATA TIME ZONE DATA Forecast Previous 11:30am EUR German Final GDP q/q :00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m :00pm USD Durable Goods Orders m/m :30pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate Day 2 All Jackson Hole Symposium COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL -114 LEAD -75 ZINC LME STOCK Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 12

13 NEWS YOU CAN USE OPEC and other oil exporting producers are expected to agree on a mechanism to monitor their crude production before the end of the year, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Bakhit al- Rashidi said. A committee set up by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied non-opec exporters would review their crude output at a meeting in Algeria next month, he told reporters while touring an electricity station. "The production numbers of OPEC and (countries) outside OPEC will be reviewed at the meeting in Algeria, and before the end of the current year, there will be an agreement on a mechanism to monitor output next year," he said. Oil markets should "remain stable" until the end of the year, he added. The committee that will meet in Algeria on Sept.23, known as the JMCC, is chaired by Saudi Arabia and includes OPEC members Algeria, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela, as well as non-opec members Oman and Russia. Iran asked to attend the meeting to defend its market share which could be impacted by U.S. sanctions due to take effect on its oil industry in November. After months of underproduction aimed at bolstering crude prices, OPEC agreed with Russia and other oil producing allies to raise output from July. The United States and China escalated their acrimonious trade war, implementing punitive 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion worth of the other's goods. The latest round brings to $50 billion the value of imports subjected to tariffs on either side since early July, and more are in the pipeline, adding to risks for global economic growth. Washington is holding hearings this week on a proposed list of an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to face duties. China has said its own tariffs on a list of $16 billion worth of imports from the United States. The tariffs took effect amid two days of talks in Washington between mid-level officials from both sides, the first formal negotiations since U.S. Commerce Secretary met with Chinese economic adviser Liu He in Beijing in June. Business groups expressed hope that the two-day meeting would mark the start of serious negotiations over Chinese trade and economic policy changes demanded by President Donald Trump. However, Trump on Monday told Reuters in an interview that he did not "anticipate much" from the talks led by U.S. Treasury Under Secretary David Malpass and Chinese Commerce Vice Minister Wang Shouwen. China s soybean imports in July fell from a month ago, customs data showed on Wednesday, as processors slowed purchases after building up a record inventory of the oilseed in preparation for hefty import tariffs on U.S. shipments introduced last month. China, the world s largest soy buyer, brought in 8.01 million tonnes of soybeans in July, down 8 percent from 8.70 million tonnes in June, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed. The figures were down 20.6 percent from last year s 10 million tonnes, the highest arrivals on record as ports at the time cleared a months-long backlog of cargoes. Beijing imposed a 25 percent tariff on a list of American products totalling $34 billion, including soybeans, on July 6, in response to U.S. penalties on Chinese goods of a similar value. Chinese firms have been heavy buyers of Brazilian beans in recent months in anticipation of Beijing s imposition of tariffs. Large arrivals of the oilseed have led to record stockpiles of soymeal and driven crush margins into negative territory. Soybean imports in the first seven months of the year were at million tonnes, down 3.7 percent from last year s million tonnes, the data showed. Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 13

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Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.: Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No , 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai CIN - U01119MH1994PTC MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ Member Code: MCX: NCDEX: 534 Date : Friday, August 24, 2018 URL : Page No : 14