MCX Commodities Week-on-week pct change

Transcription

1 MCX Commodities Week-on-week pct change Lead 1.44 Aluminium Nickel Zinc Copper 2.08 Natural Gas Crude Silver Gold Source: Kedia Commodity Commodity d % Change Gold Silver Crude Natural Gas Copper Zinc Nickel Aluminium Lead URL : Page 1

2 Bullion Complex On weekly basis Gold prices settled up by 1.21 percent and Silver prices settled up by 1.27 percent as weakness in Rupee supported on MCX though upside seen limited amid stronger-than-expected payrolls data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, in what would be its third hike this year. U.S. jobs growth accelerated in August, with wages notching their largest annual increase in nine years, strengthening views the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration's escalating trade war with China. The Federal Reserve should keep raising U.S. interest rates in light of Friday s strong jobs report, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said. U.S. job growth accelerated in August and wages notched their largest annual increase in more than nine years, strengthening views that the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration's escalating trade war with China. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report published on Friday also showed slack in the jobs market was rapidly diminishing, with a broader measure of unemployment falling to a level not seen since The report cemented expectations for a third interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year when policymakers meet on Sept Job growth averaged 185,000 per month in the past three months. The Federal Reserve should keep raising U.S. interest rates in light of Friday s strong jobs report, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said. I believe in light of economic performance we ought to be moving toward neutral...that tells me over the next nine to 12 months we ought to be raising the fed funds rate probably at least three more times, maybe three or four times, Kaplan said. The Federal Reserve will likely have to raise interest rates past the neutral rate to keep the economy on a sustainable growth path and inflation around target, according to Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans. Evans does not have a vote on the central bank s rate-setting committee this year but fully participates in deliberations. Physical gold buying picked up pace in major Asian centres in the week as lower prices fuelled appetite for the metal, with India seeing healthy demand ahead of the festive season despite a rise in domestic rates to a two-month high. Demand in India usually strengthens in the final quarter as the country gears up for the wedding season and major festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce over official domestic prices this week, unchanged from last week. Premiums in China were little changed from last week at $6-$7 an ounce. Premiums in Hong Kong were around $0.90 to $1.40 an ounce versus $0.90-$1.30 previously. Hedge funds and money managers increased their bearish stances in COMEX gold and silver contracts to the biggest on record in the holiday-shortened week to Sept. 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday. In gold, the speculators increased their net short position by 9,465 contracts to 78,918 contracts, the biggest since records became publicly available in 2006, CFTC data showed. They increased their net short position in silver by 12,951 lots to 47,480 lots, also the biggest on record, CFTC data showed. URL : Page 2

3 Bullion Complex Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Prev Volume Previous Cng in Volume 3584 Value Change 365 Interest 8441 % Change 1.21 Cng in OI 174 BUY SL TGT MCX Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Prev Volume Previous Cng in Volume 5797 Value Change 466 Interest % Change 1.27 Cng in OI BUY SL TGT MCX URL : Page 3

4 Energy On weekly basis Crude prices settled down by percent as sentiments remained bearish tracking Nymex Crudeoil prices settled down by percent on signs of expanding U.S. output and fears over lower oil-demand growth amid rising global trade tensions. Traders eased bets on disruptions to domestic crude production after a U.S.- Gulf-bound storm did not make landfall near oil-producing areas. An OPEC and non-opec technical committee will next week discuss proposals for sharing out an oil-output increase, sources familiar with the matter said, a tense topic for the producer group after it decided in June to ease supply curbs. OPEC, Russia and other non-members agreed in June to return to 100 percent compliance with oil output cuts that began in January Months of underproduction in Venezuela and elsewhere had pushed adherence above 160 percent. The June meeting concluded with a deep disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime rivals in OPEC. Saudi Arabia said the decision implied a reallocation of extra production from countries unable to produce more to those, such as Riyadh, that can. Iran, facing a forced cut in its oil exports because of U.S. sanctions, disagreed. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to million barrels in the week to Aug. 31, the lowest since February 2015, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. Despite that, analysts said prices were curbed by a rise in refined product stocks and a relatively weak U.S. peak fuel consumption season this summer. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, climbed by 3.1 million barrels, the EIA data showed. U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week as refineries boosted output amid strong consumption, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed. Crude inventories fell by 1.17 million barrels to million barrels in the week to Aug. 31, while refinery crude runs rose by 198,000 barrels per day, the API data showed. On weekly basis Nat.Gas prices settled at i.e down by -3 percent as prices remained under pressure on forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand next week than previously expected. Prices dropped earlier in the week because Tropical Storm Gordon brought cooler weather to the lower Mississippi River valley after hitting the Gulf Coast Tuesday night. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. natural gas in storage increased by 63 Bcf to Tcf for the week-ended August 31. Hedge funds and money managers upped bullish bets on U.S. crude to the highest level in nearly a month. The speculator group raised its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 16,634 contracts to 386,487 in the week to Sept. 4, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Meanwhile, natural gas speculators in four major Nymex, ICE markets cut net long positions by 25,749 contracts to 174,387 in week to Sept. 4, CFTC data showed the lowest level in nearly a month. URL : Page 4

5 Energy Charts 4941 Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Prev Volume Previous 4883 Cng in Volume Value Change -76 Interest % Change Cng in OI BUY 4850 SL 4750 TGT MCX Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Prev Volume Previous Cng in Volume Value Change Interest 3988 % Change Cng in OI -891 SELL NAT SL TGT MCX URL : Page 5

6 Base Metals Base metals prices remained under pressure as investors braced for new U.S. tariffs on China which could damage economic growth and demand for metals. The US Federal Reserve should hold off on further interest rate hikes because the stance of monetary policy is already at neutral or possibly restrictive. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is prepared to quickly ramp up a trade war with China and has told aides he is ready to impose tariffs on $200 billion more on Chinese imports as soon as a public comment period on the plan ends. On weekly basis Nickel prices settled down by percent as sentiments remained bearish tracking LME Nickel prices settled down by percent facing pressure from intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China. The Philippines, one of the world's top suppliers of nickel ore, will in the week start limiting the land that miners can develop at any one time as new rules to protect the environment take effect. The new curbs, backed by President Rodrigo Duterte, target 29 of 48 mines operating in the Philippines, which are nickel producers supplying ores to the world's leading market, China. Nickel ore output fell 10 percent in the first half of 2018 from a year earlier to 9.43 million dry metric tonnes, government data showed. On weekly basis Zinc prices settled at down by percent as sentiments remained bearish tracking LME Zinc prices settled at down by percent amid concerns of China s tough stance on trade disputes with the US continue to weigh on investors and the market. Zinc premiums shot up to four-year highs in China after a large import arbitrage encouraged deals at premiums up to and above $200 per tonne. Market readying for annual contract discussions Chinese zinc premiums soar Zinc ingot premiums have shot up in Shanghai with the arbitrage swinging to its highest in a year. Spot treatment charges (TCs) for zinc concentrate have risen to their highest level since October 2016 while the market continues to shift from deficit to balance. On-warrant stocks of copper available to the market in LME-registered warehouses rose by 850 tonnes to 147,450 tonnes but are still down from more than 234,000 tonnes in mid-august, signalling a tighter market. Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses have fallen to 136,051 tonnes from more than 300,000 tonnes in April. Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) paid to China's copper smelters are set to drop below $80 a tonne next year as processing capacity expands and copper concentrate falls into a deficit. Copper miners pay the charges to smelters to process ore into refined metal, offsetting what the smelters pay for copper concentrate. Workers at Alcoa's alumina and bauxite operations in Western Australia voted to continue a strike. Alcoa has said the strike cut production of alumina, used to smelt aluminium, by only about 15,000 tonnes in August. er alumina prices could raise the cost of aluminium. The discount of cash aluminium over the three-month contract rose to the highest since October 2015 at $ Primary aluminium inventories across major consumption areas in China shrank on the week as downstream consumers restocked when prices dipped over the week. As of now, stocks across eight consumption areas, including SHFE warrants, fell by some 33,000 mt from last Thursday to stand at million mt, data showed. URL : Page 6

7 Base Metals Charts Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Prev Volume Previous Cng in Volume Value Change 8.60 Interest % Change 2.08 Cng in OI BUY SL TGT MCX Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Prev Volume Previous Cng in Volume Value Change Interest 5374 % Change Cng in OI 3582 BUY SL TGT MCX URL : Page 7

8 Commodity % Change Volume % Volume OI % Chg Oi OI Status Bullion Gold Fresh Buying Silver Fresh Buying Energy Crude Oil Long Liquidation Natural Gas Long Liquidation Base metals Copper Fresh Buying Zinc Fresh Selling Nickel Fresh Selling Lead Fresh Buying Aluminium Fresh Selling URL : Page 8

9 Commodity GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS Weekly Market Level for Bullion, Basemetal & Energy COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD CLOSE RESISTANCE P. POINT SUPPORT Trend POSITIVE POSITIVE WEAK WEAK POSITIVE WEAK WEAK WEAK WEAK Weekly Economical Data's Date Time Curr. Data Date Time Curr. 10-Sep 2:00pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 13-Sep 5:15pm EUR 11-Sep 11:00am EUR French Final Private Payrolls q/q 13-Sep 6:00pm EUR 11-Sep 2:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 13-Sep 6:00pm USD 11-Sep 2:30pm EUR Employment Change q/q 13-Sep 6:00pm USD 11-Sep 2:30pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 13-Sep 6:00pm USD 11-Sep 3:30pm USD NFIB Small Business Index 13-Sep 8:00pm USD 11-Sep 7:30pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 13-Sep 10:45pm USD 11-Sep 7:30pm USD JOLTS Job ings 13-Sep 11:30pm USD 12-Sep 1:30pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 14-Sep 2:30pm EUR 12-Sep 2:30pm EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 14-Sep 6:00pm USD 12-Sep 6:00pm USD PPI m/m 14-Sep 6:00pm USD 12-Sep 6:00pm USD Core PPI m/m 14-Sep 6:00pm USD 12-Sep 8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 14-Sep 6:45pm USD 12-Sep 10:15pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 14-Sep 6:45pm USD 12-Sep 11:30pm USD Beige Book 14-Sep 7:30pm USD 13-Sep 11:30am EUR German Final CPI m/m 14-Sep 7:30pm USD 13-Sep 12:15pm EUR French Final CPI m/m 14-Sep 7:30pm USD Data Main Refinancing Rate ECB Press Conference CPI m/m Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage FOMC Member Bostic Speaks Federal Budget Balance Trade Balance Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Business Inventories m/m Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations URL : Page 9

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