Daily Market Update Report as on Thursday, August 30, 2018

Transcription

1 Daily Market Update Report as on Thursday, August 30, 2018 International Gold prices fell pressured after a small upward revision to second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data, as a leading dollar index stabilized near a one-month low, helping to send prices for the metal down a second straight session. While on MCX prices gained as support seen after The Indian rupee crashed more than 50 paise against the US dollar to hit an all-time low at vs USD. The steep plunge in the Indian rupee against US dollar was seen after the Reserve Bank of Indian released its Annual Report between 10 am to 11 am today. In the last hour of foreign exchange trading, the rupee collapsed to a fresh all-time low of 70.64, down 53 paise against US dollar. Floods Could Cut Indian Gold Demand In Half - As if the heavy selling pressure facing the gold market this year is not enough cause for worry, investors now have to contend with yet another challenge--waning demand by a key customer. Jewelers in India, the world s second largest gold buyer, have expressed fears that gold sales by the largest states in the country are likely to drop significantly following heavy rains and floods that have caused billions of dollars in damages. Worldwide gold demand drops 4 percent during second quarter of Although gold demand continues to fall worldwide, the drop during the second quarter of 2018 was considerably less than the drop in demand during the same period in The second quarter of 2018 witnessed only a 4 percent drop in overall gold demand compared to the second quarter of 2017, primarily attributed to lower contributions to exchange-traded funds, reports the World Gold Council. The WGC reports that ETF contributions were down 46 percent from the same period in Gold bar and coin investment worldwide was relatively unchanged at 248 tonnes. Gold import scheme: UPA-2 role under lens - Identical representations by six Tamil Nadu-based jewellers to relax conditions in 80:20 gold import scheme, which the UPA government hurriedly obliged in its last week in office, are the focus of the fresh probe into the matter by the Central Bureau of Investigation. ET has reliably gathered that the CBI has obtained these new leads in the course of a renewed investigation into the matter. The matter has also been brought to the attention of the Prime Minister s Office. This is the second time that a PE (Preliminary Enquiry) has been launched into the matter. Gold Price Drop Spurs India Festive Demand But Kerala Disaster 'Will Boost Selling' - GOLD PRICES held little changed in Dollar terms alongside global stock markets on Wednesday, trading back in line with last week's finish at $1204 per ounce as commodities rose together with longer-term interest rates on major government bonds. Gold prices in India the metal's No.2 consumer nation, now about to enter its peak demand season of post-harvest weddings and the Diwali festival today edged back as the Indian Rupee bounced from its new all-time record lows versus the Dollar. Looking ahead to Diwali which falls in early November 2018 digital payments service Paytm forecast yesterday that its gold gifting app will see 1.5 tonnes of transaction volume over India's upcoming festive season, claiming a 70% share of the digital market. Date Gold* Silver* 29 Aug 2018 (Wednesday) Aug 2018 (Tuesday) Aug 2018 (Monday) The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 29 Aug 2018 (Wednesday) Page 1

2 Outlook: Gold prices gained as funds bet prices would find short-term support at $1,200 despite of a stronger dollar and expectations for increases in U.S interest rates. For the day prices a drop towards will look to buy with a stoploss of below expecting prices to jump towards level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread DEC - OCT FEB - DEC Gold prices gained as funds bet prices would find short-term support at $1,200 but a stronger dollar and expectations for increases in U.S interest rates limited gains. The dollar rose as relief about a U.S.-Mexico trade deal gave way to concern among investors that the conflict over trade between the United States and China was not about to end soon. Adding to gold s woes are expectations for further U.S. interest rate increases this year, record bets on prices falling and liquidations in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gross domestic product grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department data showed in its second estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter. That was slightly up from the 4.1 percent pace of expansion reported in July. The data cemented expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month, with a 96 percent probability, according to fed funds futures. The U.S. Federal Reserve should be ready to lift interest rates for a longer period or even more quickly than currently expected to insure against a jump in inflation in a U.S. economy operating in the vicinity of full employment. The leaders of the United States and Canada expressed optimism on Wednesday that they could reach new NAFTA deal by a Friday deadline as negotiators prepared to talk through the night, although Canada warned that a number of tricky issues remained. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.47% to settled at 7981 while prices up 164 rupees, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30257, a move above could see prices testing Page 2

3 INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Resistance Support Outlook: Gold price crawls upwards calmly to approach level, waiting to breach this level to ease the mission of heading towards our positive targets that begin at followed by , to continue suggesting the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions conditioned by the price stability above Gold prices gained as funds bet prices would find short-term support at $1,200 but a stronger dollar and expectations for increases in U.S interest rates limited gains. The dollar rose as relief about a U.S.-Mexico trade deal gave way to concern among investors that the conflict over trade between the United States and China was not about to end soon. Adding to gold s woes are expectations for further U.S. interest rate increases this year, record bets on prices falling and liquidations in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gross domestic product grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department data showed in its second estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter. That was slightly up from the 4.1 percent pace of expansion reported in July. The data cemented expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month, with a 96 percent probability, according to fed funds futures. The U.S. Federal Reserve should be ready to lift interest rates for a longer period or even more quickly than currently expected to insure against a jump in inflation in a U.S. economy operating in the vicinity of full employment. The leaders of the United States and Canada expressed optimism on Wednesday that they could reach new NAFTA deal by a Friday deadline as negotiators prepared to talk through the night, although Canada warned that a number of tricky issues remained. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 3

4 Rupee crashed more than 50 paise against the US dollar to hit an all-time low at The US dollar strengthened after falling to a four-week low yesterday overnight. The relief over the US-Mexico trade deal was faded by concerns that the China-US trade war will drag on for some time. Today rupee should find some resistance around the areas and above same can test level. While supports for the day are at the levels and then at the levels. USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread OCT - SEP NOV - OCT Rupee touched a record low tracking weakness in Asian peers and on strong month-end dollar demand back home. India likely grew 7.6 percent in the April-June quarter, propelled in part by an improvement in manufacturing and exports. In the April-June 2017 quarter, India reported relatively weak annual growth of 5.6 percent, as manufacturing activity contracted. The Indian economy was hit by the November 2016 government decision to withdraw over 80 percent of cash. The transition to a national goods and services tax, effective in July 2017, also impacted the economy. The Indian government s preferred growth measure, gross value added (GVA), is predicted to have marginally declined to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent the previous quarter, hampered by weak agriculture growth. India s fiscal deficit widened in the April-June quarter to 68.7 percent of the budgeted target for this fiscal year, a concern but an improvement 80.8 percent for the same period of This should provide some comfort to the Reserve Bank of India which raised its key rate to 6.5 percent at its Aug. 1policy meeting to try and rein in above-target inflation. The retail inflation rate slowed in July to a four-month low of 4.17 percent, slightly above the central bank s 4 percent medium-term target. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 73.44% to settled at , now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 70.91, a move above could see prices testing Page 4

5 Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Kolkata CMDTY Gold Mumbai CMDTY Gold Mumbai * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver Ahmedabad MCX GOLD 04AUG CMDTY Silver Bangalore MCX GOLD 05OCT CMDTY Silver Chennai MCX GOLD 05DEC CMDTY Silver Delhi MCX SILVER 05JUL CMDTY Silver Hyderabad MCX SILVER 05SEP CMDTY Silver Jaipur MCX SILVER 05DEC CMDTY Silver Kolkata CMDTY Silver Mumbai * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 26SEP CMDTY Gold London AM FIX DGCX GOLD 28NOV CMDTY Gold London PM FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 27SEP CMDTY Silver London FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV DGCX SILVER 28NOV Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 30AUG INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO Page 5

6 Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: / info@kediacommodity.com URL: General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6