Global Market Overview

Transcription

1 ASIA E.U U.S.A Global Market Overview Friday 29 June 2018 Indian Rupee hit hard by Oil prices that are currently at a three-and-half year high. BoJ reduced purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with 5-10 years to maturity. USDJPY moves to US stocks rose yesterday as financial shares snapped a 13-day losing streak while technology and other growth sectors rebounded from the prior day's declines. Asian equities remained near nine-month lows early today despite small gains on Wall Street overnight, as ongoing concerns over global trade frictions dampened sentiment. Dollar index drops abruptly today morning as the EU28 leaders finally agree on the EU commission s deal on migration/asylum. Euro & Pound pushed higher. The Indian Rupee opened at a dollar after a sudden dip in the DXY. USDINR to trade volatile between & Markets Indices Last Close Previous close % CHANGE Currencies Open Previous close % CHANGE S&P USDINR-S Dow Jones DXY NASDAQ EURUSD DAX GBPUSD FTSE USDJPY CAC USDCNY STOXX FPI FLOWS Current Previous Interbank Rate USD LIBOR EURIBOR NIKKEI Equity SHANGHAI Debt KOSPI Total HANG SENG SENSEX US 10Y NIFTY IRF O/N 1 W 1M 3M 6M 1Y

2 USDINR Intraday Outlook Dollar index fell sharply early in the morning today after a strong rally in Euro which accounts for almost 60% of the Index. U.S stocks and treasuries bouncing back from the lows added gains to the dollar index. Lower than expected U.S GDP numbers also added weakness to the dollar index. Domestically Indian Rupee recorded its life time low previously, added marginal gains during the late trading session. Crude oil prices taking a breather at $77.50 after a long rally and fresh positive cash flow in to domestic bond markets added gains to the Rupee. Exporters with a large exposure who have been waiting, would now sell dollar as they see rupee adding gains after touching lifetime gains might provide initial support to the Rupee. Investors should continue to focus on Crude oil price to define the rupee movement in the near term. The daily chart of EURUSD shows that the pair has traded in a broad range of on higher side and on lower side and closed in a negative note. The pair has made all-time new high of 68.09(spot) and has got cooled off and closed in a negative note in last trading session. As the pair is trading above 25 EMA and 50 EMA bullish crossover with RSI at 65 and MACD bullish crossover above zero line indicating bullish momentum in the pair. 25 EMA placed at likely to act as support for the pair (spot). Traders can initiate Buy on dips strategy for the day. Bullish Buy USDINR Jul Fut SL TGT Levels (Spot)

3 EURINR Intraday Outlook EU28 leaders agreeing on conclusion including the migration policies after almost 10 hour long debate which continued all through the night triggered a long rally in EURO. European leader which were seen diverged on a range of issues agreeing to the common issues gained the investors sentiment. Newly elected Italian Prime minister who was blocking the migration policies have agreed to come to a common stance after rest EU peers meet its decision over trade and security. Positive news from EU summit and lower than expected GDP numbers is expected to add gains to the Euro in the coming session. The daily chart of EURUSD shows that the pair has made on higher side and on lower side and traded sideways. The pair has formed a Doji kind of candle stick in last trading session indicating indecision between bulls and bears. The pair has taken multiple supports at bounced back and currently trading at But still the pair is trading below 25 EMA and 50 EMA bearish crossover with RSI at 46 and MACD below zero line showing bearishness in the pair. 25 EMA placed at likely to act as resistance. Upside in the pair can only be seen if the pair sustains above which is 38.2 % Fibonacci level (swing of 1.04 and 1.25). Traders can initiate sell on rise strategy for the day. Bearish-Sideways Levels (Spot) Sell EURUSD July Fut SL TGT Sell EURINR July Fut SL TGT

4 GBPINR Intraday Outlook Brexit issue moving lower on the agenda list gave a mild weakness to the British Pound earlier in the trade, quickly erased after a positive news from the summit. EU members positively responding as of now on the Brexit issues also added minor gains to the GBP. Although fundamentally the overall economic outlook still remains weaker we might witness a minor gains to GBP which is expected to be short-lived. Today s GDP data after BOE strong comments on economic growth in their previous policy meet should derive the GBPUSD pair further. The daily chart of GBPUSD shows that the pair has traded in a broad range of on higher side and on lower side and closed in a negative note. 25 EMA placed at acted as resistance for the pair throughout the last trading session and has been trading below it. The pair is making lower lows and higher lows and is breaching all the minor support levels of and As the pair is trading below 25 EMA and 50EMA bearish crossover with RSI at 30 and MACD below zero line shows bearish momentum in the pair. 25 EMA placed at likely to act as resistance for the pair. Traders can initiate sell on rise strategy for the day. Bearish-Sideways Levels (Spot) Sell GBPUSD July Fut SL TGT Sell GBPINR July Fut SL TGT

5 JPYINR Intraday Outlook U.S yields moving higher and stocks retracing from the lows added losses to the global safe haven. Traders cutting down their short positions, which has been created during the trade tensions has taken the Yen lower. Japanese Yen is expected to remain weaker with a strong support at /90 if broken would see in the coming weeks time. U.S 10 year yields taking a support after it recovered from 2.82% is likely to put under pressure. BOJ decision to reduce its purchase of government band securities with 5-10 year maturity in accordance with previous decisions would add minor gains to the Yen. The daily chart of USDJPY shows that the pair has traded in a broad range of on higher side and on lower side and closed in a positive note. The pair is making higher highs and lower highs continuously with prices following upward trend line and technical indicators like RSI at 60 towards north and MACD continuing its bullish crossover, shows bullish momentum in the pair. 25 EMA Placed at likely to act as support for the pair with the resistance at which is 61.8% Fibonacci level (swing of high of 114 and low of 104). Traders can initiate Buy on dips strategy for the day. Sideways-Bullish Buy USDJPY July Fut SL TGT Sell JPYINR July Fut SL TGT Levels (Spot)

6 Currency USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Hedging Strategies- Spot Levels July Imports Strategy July Exports Strategy Part hedging done at & Part Hedging done at & Spot. Part Hedging to be done at Spot Part Hedging to be done at Spot. Next at Part Hedging to be done at Spot Part Hedging to be done at & Spot. Part Hedging to be done at Spot. Part Hedging to be done at Spot Economic Data for the Day Time Currency Data Forecast Previous 11:30 PM EUR German Retail Sales m/m -0.5% 2.3% 02:00 PM GBP Current Account -18.0B -18.4B GBP Final GDP q/q 0.1% 0.1% GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.2B 5.7B 02:30 PM EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.0% 1.9% EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 1.1% Day 2 EUR EU Economic Summit 06:00 PM USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2% USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.6% 07:15 PM USD Chicago PMI :30 PM USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Report prepared by: Siddhesh Ghare Deepak Agarwal Sridhar Peddoju Bharath Sunnam siddhesh.ghare@karvy.com deepak.agarwal@karvy.com sridhar.peddoju@karvy.com bharath.sunnam@karvy.com Head Office Karvy Millennium,Plot No 31, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad T: / 6635 Corporate Office 131, Andheri Industrial Estate, Off Veera Desai Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai T: , Mob No Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable and our own internal research; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an offer to sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, commodity or equity. Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this document, its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.no part of this document can be circulated or reproduced in any form without prior approval of Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd.