Currency Highlights. 15 th Jan Close. Close

Transcription

1 The U.S. dollar was little changed, while the Chinese yuan slipped after data showed the country s exports shrank the most in 2 years in December. The outlook for relative central bank policy has reached its climax in terms of offering the U.S. dollar support, and widening fiscal and current account deficits are expected to deliver medium-term weakness in the currency, said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist, at Scotia bank in Toronto. The Australian dollar and kiwi dollar, gauges of global risk appetite, fell on Monday on fears of a slowdown in China s economy prompted by a contraction in Chinese exports. Euro zone industrial output posted in November its biggest fall in nearly three years, data showed on Monday, stoking concerns about the currency bloc's economic growth in the final quarter of 2018 and casting doubt over the timing of the next rate hike. China published a five-year blueprint on Friday seeking economic and financial integration between southern Guangxi province and Southeast Asia, representing Beijing's latest effort to promote international use of the yuan currency. SPOT Close Prv. Close Change % Change USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR DXY Cross Currency Close Prv. Close Change % Change EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY EURGBP AUDUSD Home Previous Global Indices Close Change % Change Currency Close Nifty INR Dow Jones USD DAX EUR FTSE 100 GBP NIKKEI JPY RBI Reference Rate 14/01/ /01/2019 USD GBP EUR JPY Interest Rate Future Price Yield (Underlying) 684GS GS GS GS

2 USDINR JPYINR USDINR has extended the gain by 0.6% on Monday session. On the daily chart, pair has shown positive strength and tested a upper line of Falling wedge pattern. On a weekly time frame, pair has formed Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns and sustained above 200 DEMA, which is supporting a bullish trend. Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) reading is at with positive crossover on the daily chart. So based on the above analysis, we expect bullish movement in USDINR (Jan) towards level. JPYINR has increased by 0.5% during the Monday trades and settled above the prior week close. On the daily chart, pair has shifted above 61.8% Retracement Level and also taken a support of rising trend line, which point out bullish move in the prices. Moreover, pair has settled above 21 DEMA on the daily chart. Furthermore, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown positive crossover on the daily chart. So based on the above technical aspects, we expect bullish movement in JPYINR (Jan) towards level. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR GBPINR has started a week on positive note and settled above 91 level. On the daily chart, pair has given trend line breakdown and sustained near the upper band of Bollinger formation. It additions, pair has sustained above 21 days DEMA on the daily chart. Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shifted into positive zone with positive crossover. Hence, we expect bullish movement in GBPINR (Jan) towards level. EURINR has shown negative opening in early trades on Monday but after that pair has recovered and ended the session on positive note. On the daily chart, pair has given falling trend line breakout and sustained above it, which suggest bullishness in the prices. In addition, pair has moved above 21 DEMA on a daily chart, which indicates more upside in the prices. Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown positive crossover on the daily chart. So based on the above studies, we expect bullish movement in EURINR (Jan) future towards level. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 EURINR GBPINR

4 Economic Indicators Time Currency Data Prior Expected Impact 03:30PM EUR Trade Balance 12.5B 13.2B Actual greater than 07:00PM USD PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1% Actual greater than 07:00PM USD Core PPI m/m 0.3% 0.2% Actual greater than 08:30PM EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 11:30PM EUR FOMC Member George Speaks

5 Kkunal Parar Sr. Research Associate Sachin Gupta Research Analyst Sunil Rokade Research Associate Neeraj Dubey Research Advisor