Weekly Market Reflection

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Reflection 20 th August to 24 th August 2018 Market Outlook USDINR On Thurday, against the US dollar, the Indian Rupee plunged to a record low of with market participants sentiments weakened after the US dollar continued to strengthen against Asian peers as well as a widening trade deficit on the domestic front. On contrary, the US dollar was little changed as concerns over China s economic health and Turkish s lira crisis drove investors to the greenback and other safe-haven assets. Fundamental News For second consecutive day, the Euro rose as hopes that next week's talks between the United States and China will ease trade tensions between the two pushed the dollar lower. The Chinese yuan posted its biggest daily gain since January 2017 in offshore trade following news on Thursday that China and the U.S. will resume trade talks later in August. Currency Future Currency Date Date % Chg USDINR % EURINR % GBPINR % JPYINR % Global Updates European Monetary Union Trade Balance s.a. came in at 16.7B, below expectations 17B in June. United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.7% above expectations 0.2% in July. European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 0.4%, above expectations 0.3% in 2Q. United Kingdom Total Trade Balance came in at B, above forecasts -2.5B in June. Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) below expectations -0.2% in July: Actual -0.5%. United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below expectations 98 in August: Actual Reference Rate Currency Date Date % Chg USDINR % EURINR % GBPINR % JPYINR % Currencies vs $ Currency % Chg Rupee % Dollar Index % Euro % Pound % Japanese Yen % Swiss Franc % Canadian$ % Global Commodities Commodity % Chg Gold % Silver % Crude % Copper % Weekly pick OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE Date Currency Entry Exit P/L 30/07 JPYINR(S)

2 Overview USDINR USDINR showed bullish movements throughout the week and closed above its psychological level of , if able to sustain above this mark then it may continue positive rally towards next resistance zone of On lower levels it has strong support of EURINR EURINR after found support on lower levels showed positive movements closed around level, if break its immediate resistance of in upcoming week then continue bullish rally and find next resistance near On downward side it may find support around level.

3 Pivot Table Currencies S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Event Calendar 20 th August to 24 th August 2018 Date Time Currency Event Forecast Previous 20-Aug 5:45pm CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks Aug 2:00pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing - 4.5B 22-Aug 6:00pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m % 22-Aug 8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories - 6.8M 22-Aug 11:30pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes Aug 12:30pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI Aug 12:30pm EUR French Flash Services PMI Aug 1:00pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI Aug 1:00pm EUR German Flash Services PMI Aug 1:30pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI Aug 1:30pm EUR Flash Services PMI Aug 5:00pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Aug Day 1 All Jackson Hole Symposium Aug 6:00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m % 24-Aug 6:00pm USD Durable Goods Orders m/m % 24-Aug Day 2 All Jackson Hole Symposium - -

4 Weekly Pick (Premium Section) GBPINR found strong support on lower levels form consolidation around trendline acting as resistance on dialy chart expected to give positive breakout. BUY ABOVE TARGET SL

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