Currency Highlights. 25 th Jan 2018

Transcription

1 Highlights: The U.S. dollar extended losses to hit a fresh three-year trough against other major currencies on Wednesday, as the euro continued to broadly strengthen and as the end of the U.S. government shutdown failed to give much momentum to the greenback. The pound climbed to a 19-month high against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, boosted by the release of mostly postive UK economic reports and as the greenback remained broadly under pressure. The U.S. dollar dropped to fresh three-year lows against other major currencies on Wednesday, as the euro continued to broadly strengthen and as the end of the U.S. government shutdown failed to give much momentum to the greenback. The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, as sentiment on the greenback was hit by a fresh rally by the euro and as the end of the U.S. government shutdown failed to give sufficient momentum to the local currency. Market Highlights Close Prev Cls. Price Chg Price Chg % Doller Index USD/INR (Spot) USD/INR (Nse Jan) EUR/INR (Spot) EUR/INR (Nse Jan) GBP/INR (Spot) GBP/INR (Nse Jan) JPY/INR (Nse Jan) The number of people in work in Britain surged unexpectedly in the three months to November and regular wages rose at their fastest rate in almost a year, official data showed on Wednesday. Britain's economy slowed in 2017 as higher inflation - caused by the post-brexit referendum fall in the pound - hurt the spending power of consumers, although forecasts of a bigger hit to growth were confounded and job creation was strong. The jobless rate in the UK was unchanged as expected at a prior 42-year low in November, while wage inflation excluding bonuses unexpectedly ticket higher, official data showed on Wednesday. The Office for National Statistics said that the rate of unemployment held steady at 4.3% in November, matching consensus expectations. Private sector output in Germany maintained strong growth momentum in January, fueling optimism over the health of the euro zone's largest economy, preliminary data showed on Wednesday. Market research group Markit said that its Flash German Composite Output Index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors registered a reading of 58.8 in January, little changed from December s 80-month high of 58.9, and beating forecasts for Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in almost four years in January, a survey showed on Wednesday, with solid output and employment levels pointing to a bright outlook for an economy that continues to grow at a healthy clip. The Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 54.4 in January from a final 54.0 in December. Deposits by foreigners in Qatari banks rose in December for the first time since other Arab countries imposed an embargo on Doha last June, data from Qatar's central bank showed on Tuesday.

2 USDINR JPYINR USDINR price has been falling within a falling channel on the daily chart, A breakout on the higher end may push for sharp rally but till then USD looks weak INR. On the other hand, price moved above middle Bollinger ban which is again a bullish condition. Momentum indicator RSI (14) has moved out from oversold zone and rising. On the above technical studies & parameter, we are expecting downward move in the price towards JPYINR price has moved above the upper band of the falling channel on the daily chart. In addition, price closed above previous session s high. Momentum indicator RSI (14) has found resistance at the overbought zone. On the above technical studies & parameter, we are expecting upward move towards Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR GBPINR price has moved and sustained above previous peak on the daily chart. Also, price has moved and sustained above falling trendline breakout point. Moreover, RSI (14) is in a bullish crossover. As per the above technical structure, we are expecting bullish move in the pair towards 90 levels. On the daily chart EURINR price has moved back upward after retesting the breakout point. In addition, 50 DMA has moved above 100 DMA on the daily chart. Moreover, RSI (14) is bullish crossover. Based on the above technical studies or indicator, we expect bullish movement in the prices towards levels. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 EURINR GBPINR

4 Economic Indicators Time Currency Data Prior Expected Impact 6:15 PM EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0% 0% 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency 7:00 PM EUR ECB Press Conference More hawkish than expected is good for currency 8:30 PM USD New Home Sales 733K 676K 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency

5 Kkunal Parar Sr. Research Associate Ankur Lakhotia Sr. Research Associate Rupak De Research Associate for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.27% to $1, a troy ounce. Demand from Sachin Gupta Research Associate sachin.gupta@choiceindia.com