TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

Transcription

1 OCTOBER 4, 2018

2 TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT 7:00AM UCT+5:30 AUD Balance of Trade AUG A$1.3B A$1.551B A$1.4B NEGATIVE FOR AUD NEGATIVE FOR GOLD 1:00 AM EUR German Construction PMI SEP 52.9% 51.5% - POSITIVE FOR EURO 1:30PM GBP New Car Sales YoY SEP POSITIVE FOR GBP 6:00PM USD Initial Jobless Claims 29/SEP 212K 214K 213K POSITIVE FOR USD 7:30PM CAD Ivey PMI SEP NEGATIVE FOR CAD 7:30 PM USD Factory Orders MoM AUG 0.7% -0.8% 2.1% POSITIVE FOR USD NEGATIVE FOR GOLD 8:00PM USD EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change28/SEP -0.66M 1.852M 1.985M POSITIVE FOR NATURAL GAS

3 SNAPSHOT AUDUSD % WEAK NZDUSD % WEAK EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCAD USDCHF DXY GOLD SILVER CRUDE OIL % WEAK WEAK STRONG STRONG STRONG STRONG NEUTRAL WEAK NEUTRAL

4 ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: US China War diminish Asian Economy Outlook Asian economy will grow but with slower pace, for the first time since 2001,Asian Development Bank estimated the growth rate at 5.8%.China economy growth rate is downgraded by 6.3% in 2019 as slower than 6.4% in July 2018 Japanese Service Data disappoints the Market Yen depreciated against the USD after below average service data released on October 3, Nikkei falls as Major automobiles decline, lost 225 points in early Asian Trade All Major Asian stock plunged after modest gains on Wall street after strength in USD after robust economy data. Hong Kong Hang seng Index lost 1.44% in trading.

5 MSCI OUR VIEW: NEUTRAL INDEX REMAINS IN THE CONSOLIDATION PHASE. MSCI index for EM currencies exhibits range bound. It is trading near above 10 days SMA with cautious. We expect a range bound movement for the index in range. It shows weakness in emerging economy currencies, to create short positions in the specific currency against USD.

6 AUDUSD TREND: STRONG BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: AUDUSD PLUNGED BELOW The AUDUSD pair cracks below the psychological level of on daily charts.it edged lower after breaking the volatility barometer, Bollinger band.a strong bearish candle confirms further continuation of the trend. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY SELL STRONG SELL SELL STOCHASTIC BUY SELL SELL SELL BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL STRONG SELL SEL 10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL SELL SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL SELL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: AUDUSD HOLDS SUPPORT AFTER TRADE SURPLUS DATA The AUDUSD is still under the pressure after the better Balance of trade data released today, Trade surplus rose to AUD 1.60 Billion in August of 2018 from marginally revised AUD 1.55 billion in the previous month STARTEGY STRONG SELL SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 AUDUSD

7 NZDUSD TREND: STRONG BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: NZDUSD UNDER THE PRESSURE On daily chart NZDUSD exhibits weakness. Ii is trading below 10 days SMA & 20/ 50 days EMA crossover. It has breached all the previous support & heading towards further weakness. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY SELL SELL STRONGSELL STOCHASTIC Buy SELL SELL SELL BOLLINGER BAND Buy Buy STRONG SELL SELL 10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL STRONG SELL SELL SENTIMETER SELL SELL STRONG SELL SELL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: NZDUSD WEAKER IN SYNC WITH AUD, STRENGTH IN USD The NZDUSD continue to skid amid the pressure of strong USD weaker commodity prices STARTEGY STRONG SELL SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 AUDUSD

8 EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: Euro weakness to be limited as conducted by Reuters Poll The Euro downfall might be paused against the dollar however that would require another six months a recent poll suggest. It will recover from Italy expenditure & short term spill Euro zone Stock expected to open with cautious Euro stock will open on muted note after recent stable Euro zone economic data. US posted gains after robust economic data,

9 EURUSD TREND: STRONG BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EURUSD key support broken, breaches EURUSD breaks its psychological level at A range bound trade earlier with negative bias, with expanded volatility near lower levels leads to the fall of the pair INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI STRONG SELL STRONG SELL SELL STRONG SELL STOCHASTIC STRONG SELL STRONG SELL STRONG SELL STRONG SELL BOLLINGER BAND Neutral SELL NEUTRAL SELL 10 SMA STRONG SELL SELL STRONG SELL SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) STRONG SELL SELL SELL SELL SENTIMETER STRONG SELL STRONG SELL SELL SELL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:EURUSD falls against the muted economic data EURUSD could not sustain the important support levels, in spite of above expectation job market and service sector data. Euro zone services PMI reported at 54.7 in line with the market expectation and slightly higher than August reading at 54.4 STRATEGY SELL SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 EURUSD

10 GBPUSD TREND: BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: GBPUSDFALLS BREAKS THE TREND LINE GBP/USD is under pressure since 21 September, bounce back from the level of further leads the pair continue to fall.the important psychological level has been broken on 2 nd October, next pair is heading towards INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI SELL SELL STRONG SELL SELL STOCHASTIC SELL BUY SELL SELL BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL 10 SMA NEUTRAL SELL SELL SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL NEUTRAL SELL SELL SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL SELL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: GBPUSD FEARED THE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY GBPUSD pair affected more by the political reason lately then due to economic factor. UK service index fell short of market expectation from 54.0 to 53.9 in September 2018 from the previous month. Global slowdown in economy & amid subdued political rift creates chaos. Still the rates of job creation strongest since February STRATEGY SELL SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 GBPUSD

11 US ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: USD rose against the peers on upbeat economic data, Fed Hawkish statement US economy showing signs sign of expansion, the latest data by Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing activity index jumped 3.1 points to 61.6 last month, which is the highest since August US stocks gained modest, Treasury Yield rose backed by strong economic data US equities gained marginally yesterday as strong US job market data & service sector reading boosts the strength of the US economy outlook. Policy makers would be in a mode to gradual increase the interest rates and would able to tame the rising inflation.

12 DOLLAR INDEX OUR VIEW: The index rises steep above 96 with bullish slope against the rising trend line along with the lows made on 24 September at The Bullish momentum is expected to continue further. It will move in before marching ahead for the day.

13 USDJPY TREND: BULLISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: USDJPY TAKES BREATHER NEAR The USD/JPY on 4 hour chart is in overbought zone as both RSI & Stochastic trading at above 70 indicating the prices can retrace back.the underlying tone is still bullish for the pair. It is expected to trade in the range of A trade above will see the further upside. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI SELL BUY SELL BUY STOCHASTIC BUY BUY SELL BUY BOLLINGER BAND SELL BUY BUY BUY 10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL NEUTRAL BUY SELL SENTIMETER SELL BUY SELL BUY FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: USD JPY GAINS ON ROBUST US ECONOMIC DATA USD gains on better than estimated data released yesterday. on Manufacturing data rose to 61.6 in September from 58.5 in August, US composite PMI exhibits expansion although at a slower pace at 53.9 as against market expectation of STRATEGY BUY SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDJPY

14 USDCAD TREND: NEUTRAL TO BULLISH TECHNCIAL OUTLOOK: USDCAD Trades higher with increased Volatility On daily charts pair takes the support near lower Bollinger band at on 2 nd October, it rose sharply & touched higher levels around INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY BUY BUY BUY STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY BUY BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY 10 SMA NEUTRAL BUY BUY SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: USDCAD CONSOLIDATES AWAITS FOR KEY DATA DUE TODAY USDCAD took the support near after recent Nafta deals. The expectation of better business confidence data keeps the lower level guarded for the pair STRATEGY BUY USDCAD

15 USDCHF TREND: BULLISH TECHNCIAL OUTLOOK: USDCHF TESTS THE KEY RESISTANCE LEVEL AT On daily charts USDCHF poised strong gains, for the last 3-4 trading sessions it is continuous trading in the upward channels, strong green candles suggest continuation of the current momentum. If the price breaks the in the intra day trade it will move further till INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY BUY BUY BUY STOCHASTIC BUY SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL STRONG BUY 10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL BUY BUY MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL BUY BUY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: USDCHF GAINS ON LOWER SWISS TREASURY YIELDS USDCHF gains on investors risk aversion, Rising US treasury yields followed by muted gold & commodity performance keeps pressure on Swiss currency STRATEGY STRONG BUY SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDCAD

16 GOLD TREND: BULLISH TECHNICAL VIEW: Gold is trading in the consolidation manner.the upside is capped near 1210 and lower side is near On the 4 hour chart it is still trades above 20 & 50 days EMA crossover. A squeezed Bollinger band suggest volatility will be low, price action would see a narrow movement in the intraday session. STRATEGY BUY SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2 GOLD

17 SILVER TREND: BEARISH TECHNICAL VIEW: SILVER PRICES RETRACE BACK FROM INTRADAY HIGH Silver poised intraday gains yesterday made high of 14.85, however could not sustain at the higher levels & prices pulled back.it is still above 20 &50 days EMA crossover on daily charts. Buying opportunity will emerge near STRATEGY SELL SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE2 SILVER

18 CRUDEOIL TREND: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: On daily chart crude oil is trading higher with positive bias. The price stalled near 76.50psychological resistance level after a continuous price ride from RSI & Stochastic in overbought zone suggest price can pulled back by further to resume upward trend STRATEGY Sell SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2 CRUDE OIL

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