MORNING COFFEE. 4-September-2017
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1 4-September-2017 FROM CEO'S DESK The USD had weakened in an immediate reaction post the release of weak US August NFP print. Wage growth too continued to disappoint. Euro rallied to but soon retraced on ECB comments that Euro strength was a Dollar problem. South Korean Won is weaker by around 0.9% against USD on news of another missile test by North Korea over the weekend. Other Asian currencies are trading % weaker. Likely range with bias to the up side. Asian equities are trading with cuts up to 0.5%. Among other data this week, we have the RBA rate decision tomorrow and ECB rate decision and post policy conference on Thursday. Also Eurozone Q2 GDP data. Eurozone producer price index only data due today. FPIs invested net USD 69mn in debt and USD 34mn in equity on Thursday. CURRENCY USDINR EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY COMMENTS USDINR opens lower as robust foreign inflows helps rupee offset risk aversion stemming from North Korea bomb test, pair now at against previous close. The dollar reversed its losses and pushed higher with the euro last down 0.3 percent at $ after briefly hitting a session high of $ producing spike in the pair after disappointing US NFP data numbers. Sterling hit a three-week high on Friday, boosted by a stronger-than-expected business sentiment survey as well as a forecast-lagging U.S. non-farm payrolls report that knocked the dollar down. The yen strengthened almost 1 percent after North Korea tested a nuclear bomb on Sunday, spurring demand for haven assets. Further, pair remained under pressure after weaker US job data INTRADAY OUTLOOK BULLISH BEARISH NEUTRAL BEARISH COMMODITIES/DI GOLD SILVER WTI CRUDE DOLLAR INDEX INFLOWS (01/09/2017) EQUITY DEBT * Figures are in Rs. Crores LAST CHANGE % CHANGE REGION GLOBAL INDICES LAST CHANGE % CHANGE $1, % HANG SENG 27, % $ % ASIA KOSPI 2, % $ % NIKKEI 19, % % SENSEX 31, % INDIA NIFTY 9, % PURCHASE SELL NET CAC 5, % EUROPEAN DAX 12, % FTSE 7, % US DOW 21, % NASDAQ 5, %
2 COUNTRY TIME (IST) MAJOR GLOBAL EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS 1/9/2017 GBP 2:00 PM Manufacturing PMI USD 6:00 PM Non-Farm Employment Change 156K 180K 209K USD 7:30 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI IMPACT ON FX 4/9/2017 GBP 2:00 PM Construction PMI CENTRAL BANKS INTEREST RATES LIBOR RATES ON 1M 3M 6M 1Y CENTRAL BANK RATES NEXT MEETING USD RBI 6.00% October 4, 2017 EUR FED 1.25% September 20, 2017 GBP ECB 0.00% September 7, 2017 JPY BOE BOJ RBA 0.25% -0.10% 1.50% September 14, 2017 September 21, 2017 September 5, 2017 INDIA'S KEY RATES CARRY 10 YEAR BOND YIELD LAST AGAINST USD REPO RATE 6.00% REVERSE REPO 5.75% TRADE INFLATION 2.36% CRR 4.00% INDIA 6.48% INR 4.75% GDP (Q/Q) 5.70% SLR 20.00% US 2.16% EUR 1.25% IIP -0.10% GBP 1.00% JPY -1.35% MONTH END FORWARD PREMIUM- IN RUPEES (BID RATE) MONTH 1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 10Y USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR
3 OTHER MAJOR NEWS * Yen, bonds and gold gain after N.Korea tests hydrogen bomb. * US NFP increased by in August, unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4% * ECB may not have final QE plan ready untill December- Bloomberg CHART OF THE DAY - EURUSD SPOT RATE TECHNICAL OBSERVATION After making multi month high above levels, last week pair corrected below levels to form SHOOTING STAR CANDLESTICK pattern.hence, it is expected that short term top has been made. In the near term, the pair is expected to correct upto levels. INTRADAY RANGE [BEARISH] CURRENCY 3 MONTHS OUTLOOK 6 MONTHS OUTLOOK RANGE OUTLOOK RANGE OUTLOOK $ INDEX BEARISH BULLISH EURUSD BULLISH BEARISH GBPUSD BEARISH BEARISH USDJPY BEARISH BULLISH AUDUSD BULLISH BEARISH USDCAD BEARISH BEARISH GOLD BULLISH BEARISH
4 CURRENCY DAILY TECHNICAL CHART
5 RECOMMENDED ON:- 31/08/2017 FORWARD RATE: (OCT EXPIRY) CURRENCY OPTION STRATEGY STRATEGY FOR: IMPORTER SPOT RATE: (WHEN RECOMMENDED) STRATEGY It is recommended to Buy strike call option at 37 paisa, Sell Strike Call option at 27 paisa and Sell Strike Put option at 0.10 paisa. Here, it s a Zero Cost Strategy. Market Price Buy Call Sell Sell Put Net Import Net rate STRATEGY TABLE USD-INR Spot Forward rate Buy Strike Sell Strike Sell Strike Net Premium payable PAYOFF CHART CONCLUSION Case I : If USD-INR expires below on expiry, then net import realization will be which is anyhow better than booking forward today at Case II: If USD-INR expires between , then net import realization will be at spot market which is better than booking forward at Case III: If USD-INR expires above on expiry, then net import realization will be at (Spot 0.25 Paisa) which is better than market rate.
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