Nivesh Daily Currency

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1 FRO FROM RESEARCH DESK 6 December, 2018 Currency % OI % Prev. OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR EURINRR GBPINR JPYINR Cross Currency Update Currency Pivot Levels Currency Pair Close Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY % Change USDINR 27 December, 2018 Expiry Option Update Options CE CE CE CE LTP %Chg OI PE PE PE PE %Chg OI Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating bullish trend in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate ( December 5, 2018) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.IN No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( December Future) Dollar/rupee slipped from the day high Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50% while reducing its inflation target for H Technical, USDINR had a volatile day yesterday and settled at Pair remained above its crucial support and tested day high On the EOD chart, pair would need to break above in order to test , else expect to consolidate around in near in days to come. On the downside, a break below could result in downside move towards and below. Recommendation: LTP Buy around Target Stop loss EURINR (December Future) Euro/Rupee traded higher after the European Court of Justice's Advocate General said Britain has the right to unilaterally withdraw its notice that it is leaving the European Union. Technical, EURINR saw a consolidation around and settled at levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for indecision in trend. On the upside, break above only would expect to test , else any rise towards could attract near term selling activities. Recommendation LTP Sell around Target Stop loss

3 GBPINR (December Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Pound/Rupee rebounded from the day low as investors sentiments improved on hopes that a no-deal Brexit could be blocked. The pound liked likely to remain under pressure ahead of the key parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal on December 11, amid doubts over whether the vote will pass. Technical, GBPINR retreated more than 0.40% and settled at levels. Pair failed to break levels and remain below levels. Near term, trend expects to remain indecisive ahead of Brexit deal vote. Further, any rise towards may attract selling activities unless it gives a closing above LTP Sell around Target Stop loss JPYINR (December Future) The greenback surged against Yen on uncertainty over the trade truce struck between the US and China over the weekend while yen gained grounds on safe-haven appeal. Technical, JPYINR retreated from the day high and tested before closing at levels. In near term, pair would need to break above in order to test 63.50, else expect to test its immediate support Recommendation/ View : LTP Buy above Stop loss Target

4 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today UK services purchasing managers index fell to 50.4 in November from 52.2 the previous month. It was the weakest reading since July 2016, just after the Brexit vote and was well short of forecasts of Euro Zone Composite Final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good guide to economic health, fell to 52.7 in November from October's 53.1, its lowest since September German composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors that account for more than two-thirds of the economy, fell to 52.3 from 53.4 the previous month. Reserve Bank of India-led Monetary Policy Committee kept rate unchanged at its December policy meeting on benign inflation outlook. RBI-MPC keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.50%, Reverse repo unchanged at 6.25%; MSF and Bank Rate at 6.75%. MPC downwardly revised the inflation outlook for the 2HFY19 due to subdued fuel inflation. The central bank expects the headline CPI to remain in the range of 2.7%-3.2% in H2FY19. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 12:30pm EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.40% 0.30% Negative All Day All OPEC Meetings :30pm GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction :00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y :45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 196K 227K Negative 7:00pm CAD Trade Balance B - USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.30% 2.20% Positive USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.10% 1.20% Negative USD Trade Balance -55.2B -54.0B Negative USD Unemployment Claims 226K 234K Neutral 7:05pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks :15pm USD Final Services PMI Neutral 8:30pm CAD Ivey PMI Negative USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Negative USD Factory Orders m/m -1.90% 0.70% Negative 9:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories - 3.6M - 10:45pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks Impact: HighLowMedium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.

5 IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) research@indianivesh.in Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to