MNCL DAILY FX MONITOR 11-December-2018

Transcription

1 MARKETOUTLOOK Rupee depreciates amid RBI Governor Resignation and uncertainty over state election result Indian rupee depreciates as RBI Governor resigns unexpectedly yesterday evening and amid uncertainty over India state election result due today. So far, exit polls of the state elections showed possible mixed outcome for the major parties and a possible defeat for BJP in all three states viz. Rajasthan (fully discounted to lose), Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is a possibility according to some surveys. Moreover India s Current Account Deficit for Q2FY19 widened to USD 19 Bn which is 2.9% of GDP, up from 2.4% of GDP in Q1. This is the highest CAD level since June The UK parliament is set to vote on Brexit deal on Tuesday evening with little hope for other scenarios than the rejection of the proposed agreement. Theresa May has already indicated the idea of the second referendum or a softer Brexit in case her deal is rejected. The chances of the second referendum or a softer Brexit are Sterling supportive as it is uncertainty that keeps Sterling capped under The mix of the most important UK macroeconomic indicators are due in the second week of December but will be overshadowed by Brexit deal vote and further development. The UK macroeconomic is playing a secondary role in the ongoing Brexit drama, but there were some positive signs on the macro front with manufacturing and construction PMIs jumping higher in November. CHARTOFTHEDAY NSE EURINR(Dec) DailyFuturesChart Pattern: Hanging Man Strategy: Recommendation Buy around Price: Stop-loss: Target: Analysis: EURINR has seen reversal, and prices are expected to touch 38.2% retracement now If prices sustain above 82.40, it could lead to levels like Page 1

2 MARKET MOVEMENT International Currencies Open Close High Low Change Daily Weekly Monthly YTD Yearly 3Yrs Dollar Index % 0.13% -0.45% 5.22% 3.19% -0.47% EUR/USD % 0.18% 1.31% -5.28% -3.21% 3.42% EUR/GBP % 1.36% 3.56% 1.84% 2.54% 25.19% GBP/USD % -1.17% -2.16% -6.98% -5.60% % USD/JPY % 0.24% -0.69% 0.32% -0.44% -6.46% USD/CAD % 1.05% 1.15% 6.53% 4.18% -2.59% NSE-FX Currencies Expiry Open High Low Close Change Daily USD/INR 27 DEC % -0.60% % 7.85% EUR/INR 27 DEC % 0.81% 7.58% % 8.95% 11.66% GBP/INR 27 DEC % -2.75% 5.53% 6.15% % JPY/INR 27 DEC % 0.09% % 15.42% EUR/USD 27 DEC % 1.31% -5.28%% -3.21% 3.42% GBP/USD 27 DEC % -2.16% -6.98% -5.60% % USD/JPY 27 DEC % -0.69% 0.32% -0.44% -6.46% TECHNICAL VIEW NSEFX Volume Open Interest Weekly Monthly S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 15Min Hourly 5Hrs Daily Weekly USD/INR Neutral Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy EUR/INR Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Neutral GBP/INR Neutral Neutral Strong Buy Buy Sell JPY/INR Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy EUR/USD Buy Strong Sell Strong Sell Neutral Strong Sell GBP/USD Buy Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell USD/JPY Sell Neutral Strong Buy Buy Strong Buy YTD Yearly 3Yrs Page 2

3 ECONOMIC DATA Date/Time Country Importance Data Actual Forecast Previous Mon, Dec 10, 2018 Tentative CNY New Loans 1200B 697.0B 15:00 GBP GDP (MoM) 0.1% 0.1% 0.00% 15:00 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) -0.6% -0.4% 0.00% 15:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) -0.9% 0.0% 0.20% 15:00 GBP Trade Balance (Oct) B B -9.73B Tues, Dec 11, :00 GBP Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4.10% 4.10% 19:00 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% 0.50% 19:00 USD PPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.0% 0.60% 22:30 USD WASDE Report Wed, Dec 12,2018 Tentative GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal 03:00 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 5.360M 15:30 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.30% -0.30% 16:50 USD OPEC Monthly Report 17:30 INR CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.90% 3.31% Tentative USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies 19:00 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.20% 0.20% 19:00 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.20% 2.10% 19:00 USD CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.10% 0.30% 21:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories Thurs, Dec 13, :30 USD Federal Budget Balance (Nov) B 18:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate -0.40% -0.40% 18:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.25% 0.25% Page 3

4 Fri, Dec 14, :15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 0.00% 0.00% 19:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 19:00 EUR ECB Press Conference 07:30 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov) 5.80% 5.70% 07:30 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 5.90% 5.90% 07:30 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate 4.90% 12:00 INR WPI Inflation (YoY) (Nov) 4.73% 5.28% 13:30 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Dec) :30 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Dec) :30 EUR Services PMI (Dec) :00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.40% 0.70% 19:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.20% 0.80% 19:45 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.30% 0.10% 20:15 USD Manufacturing PMI (Dec) :15 USD Services PMI (Dec) :30 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Oct) 0.30% 0.30% Page 4

5 PRODUCT BASKET Product Name Description Holding Period MNCL FX ROLL MNCL FX MINT MNCL FX OPTIONS Momentum based Call based on Sentiment and Technical Analysis. Short Term Call, Carryover Call, BTST Call, STBT Call based on Fundamental and Technical Analysis. Medium Term Call based on Option trading Strategies. Intraday 1 to 5 Days 1 to 5 Days ApproxReward to Risk Ratio Risk Reward (% on Margin Deployed) 1.2 to 1.5:1 Expected Returns : 5-15% Expected Risk : 4-8% 1.5 to 2:1 Expected Returns : 7-25% Expected Risk : 5-15% 1.5 to 2:1 Expected Returns : 7-25% Expected Risk : 5-15% Suitable for Retail Traders, High Risk Traders and Intraday Traders Retail Traders, HNI Traders and Positional Traders HNI Traders and Positional Traders Page 5

6 COMFX RESEARCH TEAM Name Designation Specialization Landline No. RenishaChainani Head Commodity and Currency Research Energy, Metals, Macro Economics & Currencies Jay Dave Senior Research Analyst -Commodity & Currency Energy, Metals and Currencies Milan Shah Senior Research Analyst - Commodity Agri Commodities Milan.shah@mnclgroup.com AshvinPrajapati Research Associate MIS and Data Collection ashvin.prajapati@mnclgroup.com DISCLAIMER: MonarchNetworthCapitalLimited(hereinafterMNCL),apublicallylistedcompany,isengagedinservicesofretailbroking,credits,portfoliomanagementandmarketinginvestmentproductsincludingmutualfunds,life&generalinsuranceandassuchpreparesandsharesresearchdataandre portsperiodicallywithclients,investors,stakeholdersandgeneralpublicincompliancewithsecuritiesandexchangeboardofindiaact,1992,securitiesandexchangeboardofindia(researchanalysts)regulations,2014and/oranyotherapplicabledirectives,instructionsorguidelinesissue dbytheregulatorsfromtimetotime.researchreportisawrittenorelectroniccommunicationthatincludesresearchanalysis,researchrecommendationoranopinionconcerningsecuritiesorpublicoffer,providingabasisforinvestmentdecisions.theviewsexpressedthereinarebasedsolel yoninformationavailablepublicly/internaldata/otherreliablesourcesbelievedtobetrue.theinformationisprovidedmerelyasacomplementaryserviceanddonotconstituteanoffer,solicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyfinancialinstruments,inducement,promise,guarantee,warran ty,orasanofficialconfirmationofanytransactionsorcontractofanykind.researchdataandreportspublished/ ed/textmessagedviashortmessagingservices,onlinemessengers,whatsappetc/transmittedthroughmobileapplication/s,includingbutnotlimitedtoflip,videowidg et,telephonynetworks,printorelectronicmediaandorthosemadeavailable/uploadedonsocialnetworkingsites(e.g.facebook,twitter,linkedinetc)bymnclorthoserecommendationoroffersoropinionsconcerningsecuritiesorpublicofferwhichareexpressedasandduringthecourseo f PublicAppearance areforinformationalpurposesonly.thereportsareprovidedforassistanceandarenotintendedtobeandmustnotalonebetakenasthebasisforaninvestmentdecision.theuserassumestheentireriskofanyusemadeofthisinformation.thoughdisseminatedtoclientssi multaneously,notallclientsmayreceivethereportsatthesametime.mnclwillnottreatrecipientsasclientsbyvirtueoftheirreceivingthisreport.thereportsincludeprojections,forecastsandotherpredictivestatementswhichrepresentmncl sassumptionsandexpectationsinthelightofc urrentlyavailableinformation.theseprojectionsandforecastsarebasedonindustrytrends,circumstancesandfactorswhichinvolverisks,variablesanduncertainties.theactualperformanceofthecompaniesrepresentedinthereportmayvaryfromthoseprojected.theprojectionsandfor ecastsdescribedinthisreportsshouldbeevaluatedkeepinginmindthefactthatthese--arebasedonestimatesandassumptions&aresubjecttosignificantuncertaintiesandcontingencies, -willvaryfromactualresultsandsuchvariationsmayincreaseoveraperiodoftime, - 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